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2026-01-09T14:45:00
2026-01-09 14:45:??
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true 2026-01-09 2026

2026-01-09 14:45:??

bid-price-modeling

Suppose a true cost model, accounting for all relevant information available at time t.

C(t) returns a distribution whose scale decreases with t, and C(0) maps to a single value. t>0 is time until the final payment.

250

Figure: lognormal distributions with the same location varied by scale.