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uncertainty
topic/risk
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Uncertainty

Uncertainty

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The term "uncertainty" refers to the possibility of multiple outcomes.

Information

In statistical inference and strategy, information is the resolution of uncertainty.

value-of-information

Types of Uncertainty

Aleatory Uncertainty

[!info] Also Known As

  • statistical uncertainty
  • stochastic uncertainty
  • random error

Aleatory uncertainty is inherent randomness in data that can't be explained away.

Epistemic Uncertainty

[!info] Also Known As

  • systematic uncertainty
  • model uncertainty

Epistemic uncertainty is that which arises from a lack of knowledge, and can be eliminated with access to #information.

Under Bayesian statistics, all uncertainty is epistemic.

See Also