1.3 KiB
id, aliases, title, tags, dg-publish
| id | aliases | title | tags | dg-publish | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uncertainty in Construction Estimating |
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Uncertainty in Construction Estimating
Cross-topic of uncertainty and construction-estimating.
This note is intended to be purely descriptive. See actuarial-science-for-construction-estimating and risk-management-for-construction-estimating for strategy based on such uncertainty.
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TALK
What do I mean that project cost is uncertain until the last invoice?
What distributions exist which are known, which can never be known and must be estimated?
With perfect information all outcomes are certain.
There exists some distribution representing the range of possible costs for a project. The remaining uncertainty represents ignorance of information an estimator can not feasibly obtain.
Suppose the estimator has spent years on the bid, running simulations, consulting experts, etc.
Suppose the estimator has received a message from a time traveler which details significant news events and commodity markets for the duration of the project.
Suppose the estimator is prescient and has observed the final cost of the project as reported in the winning contractor's historicals.
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