vault backup: 2025-11-04 06:39:07

risk-oriented-estimating.md

@@ -12,12 +12,11 @@ title: Risk Oriented Estimating
 ---
 # Risk Oriented Estimating
 
-<!--
+%%
 As catchy as the name is,
 it may be more effective to communicate these thoughts as
 a thorough critique of the limitations of traditional methods,
-a
--->
+%%
 
 Risk-Oriented Estimating (ROE),
 is a [[estimating-methodologies|methodology]]
@@ -35,11 +34,15 @@ increasing the probability of loss to a competitor.
 
 %%
 
-## Scratch
+## TALK
 
 Bid risk may fit a [Taleb distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taleb_distribution).
 
-Actuarial Science
+[Actuarial Science](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_science)
+strongly parallels construction estimation:
+
+- cost of individual service is uncertain
+- cost to customer must be minimized
 
 %%
 
@@ -139,9 +142,9 @@ This interval can be determined from a population of possible prices.
 
 The _accuracy_ of a risk-oriented estimate remains roughly the same
 (approaching 100% with continuous input)
-through the takeoff process, and, assuming no incorrect input,
+through the takeoff process, and--assuming no incorrect input--
 is entirely out of the hands of the estimator doing the "takeoff".
-The previous chapters describe how a centralized system
+Other notes describe how a centralized system
 separates the concerns of adjustment factors
 and data input for individual projects.