vault backup: 2025-11-04 06:39:07
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@@ -12,12 +12,11 @@ title: Risk Oriented Estimating
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# Risk Oriented Estimating
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# Risk Oriented Estimating
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<!--
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As catchy as the name is,
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As catchy as the name is,
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it may be more effective to communicate these thoughts as
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it may be more effective to communicate these thoughts as
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a thorough critique of the limitations of traditional methods,
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a thorough critique of the limitations of traditional methods,
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a
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%%
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-->
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Risk-Oriented Estimating (ROE),
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Risk-Oriented Estimating (ROE),
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is a [[estimating-methodologies|methodology]]
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is a [[estimating-methodologies|methodology]]
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@@ -35,11 +34,15 @@ increasing the probability of loss to a competitor.
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## Scratch
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## TALK
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Bid risk may fit a [Taleb distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taleb_distribution).
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Bid risk may fit a [Taleb distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taleb_distribution).
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Actuarial Science
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[Actuarial Science](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_science)
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strongly parallels construction estimation:
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- cost of individual service is uncertain
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- cost to customer must be minimized
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@@ -139,9 +142,9 @@ This interval can be determined from a population of possible prices.
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The _accuracy_ of a risk-oriented estimate remains roughly the same
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The _accuracy_ of a risk-oriented estimate remains roughly the same
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(approaching 100% with continuous input)
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(approaching 100% with continuous input)
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through the takeoff process, and, assuming no incorrect input,
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through the takeoff process, and--assuming no incorrect input--
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is entirely out of the hands of the estimator doing the "takeoff".
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is entirely out of the hands of the estimator doing the "takeoff".
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The previous chapters describe how a centralized system
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Other notes describe how a centralized system
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separates the concerns of adjustment factors
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separates the concerns of adjustment factors
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and data input for individual projects.
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and data input for individual projects.
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@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
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---
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id:
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aliases: []
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tags: []
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title: Topics To Revisit
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---
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# Topics To Revisit
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These are some terms and topics I've had written down on paper
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that I think may be relevant later.
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## Topological Sorting
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[Topological Sorting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topological_sorting)
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## Convex Hull
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[Convex Hull](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convex_hull)
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## Quantities
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A **quantity** has a **value** and a **unit of measure** (e.g. 20ft)
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## Personal Brand
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Define personal brand
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