Vault Backup 2025-07-11

new-additions/1752260155-JUEH.md

@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+---
+id: 1752260155-JUEH
+aliases:
+  - "!example"
+tags: []
+---
+
+# !example

new-additions/the-failure-of-risk-management.md

@@ -1,3 +1,9 @@
+---
+id: the-failure-of-risk-management
+aliases: []
+tags: []
+---
+
 # *The Failure of Risk Management*
 
 The Failure of Risk Management
@@ -38,6 +44,13 @@ It describes the process of "calibration"
 by which people can be trained to compensate for this bias
 and make predictions far more accurately.
 
+Experts tend to be good at creating heuristics,
+but do not apply them consistently in practice.
+
+> [!example]
+> Chapter 7 describes a study where experts
+> were shown to estimate risk differently for identical cases.
+
 ## Mentioned Topics and Abbreviations
 
 * Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
@@ -49,3 +62,4 @@ and make predictions far more accurately.
 * Value at Risk (VaR)
 * Loss-Exceedance Curve (LEC)
 * Risk Tolerance
+