vault backup: 2025-08-01 12:17:14

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2025-08-01 12:17:15 -04:00
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@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ As such, it is generally understood as a binary, win/loss relationship.
This model of discrete probability is ubiquitous of
[[project-management-tm|Project Management™]],
and is the sort assumed when using [[#risk registers].
and is the sort assumed when using risk registers.
> [!example]
> This scope of work presents a 1 in 10 chance of significant delay.
@@ -24,11 +24,11 @@ where cost estimation only cares about the bottom line.
It is generally not useful for construction cost estimation.
Potential impacts sufficient to warrant documenting
should usually just be [[proposals#exclusions|excluded]].
should usually just be excluded.
Cost estimators usually understand risk in terms of continuous probability.
The reality of cost estimation is that there are _no_ certain costs.
The reality of construction cost estimation is that there are _no_ certain costs.
Traditional construction estimates give a false impression of certainty
because they operate on and return fixed values.
With the most generous interpretation, they can be said to evaluate cost