vault backup: 2025-08-01 12:17:14
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@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ As such, it is generally understood as a binary, win/loss relationship.
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This model of discrete probability is ubiquitous of
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[[project-management-tm|Project Management™]],
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and is the sort assumed when using [[#risk registers].
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and is the sort assumed when using risk registers.
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> [!example]
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> This scope of work presents a 1 in 10 chance of significant delay.
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@@ -24,11 +24,11 @@ where cost estimation only cares about the bottom line.
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It is generally not useful for construction cost estimation.
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Potential impacts sufficient to warrant documenting
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should usually just be [[proposals#exclusions|excluded]].
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should usually just be excluded.
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Cost estimators usually understand risk in terms of continuous probability.
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The reality of cost estimation is that there are _no_ certain costs.
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The reality of construction cost estimation is that there are _no_ certain costs.
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Traditional construction estimates give a false impression of certainty
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because they operate on and return fixed values.
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With the most generous interpretation, they can be said to evaluate cost
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