vault backup: 2025-10-10 14:37:17

risk-oriented-estimating.md

@@ -2,20 +2,31 @@
 id: risk-oriented-estimating
 aliases: []
 tags:
+  - destiny/uncertain
+  - status/incomplete
   - topic/estimating
   - topic/risk
+  - type/philosophy
 title: Risk Oriented Estimating
 ---
 # Risk Oriented Estimating
 
-Risk-Oriented Estimating (ROE), is a methodology for [[construction-estimating]]
-which:
+<!--
+As catchy as the name is,
+it may be more effective to communicate these thoughts as
+a thorough critique of the limitations of traditional methods,
+a
+-->
+
+Risk-Oriented Estimating (ROE),
+is a [[estimating-methodologies|methodology]]
+for [[construction-estimating]] which:
 * prioritizes estimating tasks,
 * determines necessary [[estimating-detail]]
 
 ROE leans heavily on [[uncertainty#Value of Information]],
 which challenges the natural tendency to shy from uncertainty
-with the reality of the cost of certainty.
+with the reality of the **cost of certainty**.
 
 ROE does not endorse common shortcuts that round up to "cover" uncertainty,
 as these ultimately _increase_ risk by inflating the apparent project cost,
@@ -59,34 +70,13 @@ For systems where EVI analysis determines manual takeoff is still necessary,
 optimizations can be made to decrease the required effort of takeoff,
 and thus the opportunity cost of takeoff.
 
-Count-based takeoff speed increases with count.
-
-Optimizing the takeoff process means:
-
-* _Minimizing_ the need for information outside of drawings
-* _Maximizing_ organizational consistency
-
-> [!note]
-> Recent events have complicated my philosophy above.
-> It appears that similar efforts have already been made here,
-> their success being a matter of perspective.
-> Is it acceptable that optimal
-
-#### Naming Conventions (Use Case vs. Description)
-
-Naming by use case is intuitive for those without estimating or field experience,
-but has the side effect that those accustomed to the names
-will inevitably _treat them as descriptive_.
-
-| Use Case            | Description   |
-| ------------------- | ------------- |
-| Hi-Hat              | Daisy-Chain   |
-| Furnished By Others | Rough-In Only |
+See [[optimal-estimating-patterns]] for more.
 
 ## Potential Objections
 
-Objections to the use of historical data in new estimates are not unfounded. A
-framework to do so competently and consistently does not currently exist.
+Objections to the use of historical data in new estimates are not unfounded.
+A framework to do so competently and consistently
+does not currently exist.
 
 > [!info]
 > Nor does the software necessary to utilize such a framework efficiently.
@@ -110,10 +100,6 @@ to quantify the dollar amount implications of our assumptions.
 There is an enormous gap in complexity between pure square foot pricing and
 [[traditional-estimating-methods]] that tools do not exist to bridge.
 
-> [!aside]
-> The refusal to acknowledge the potential for more "complex" estimate models
-> hints at issues of organizational ignorance described ~~elsewhere in this vault~~.
-
 At all points in the estimating process,
 It should be possible to give a confident budget.
 
@@ -152,7 +138,7 @@ This interval can be determined from a population of possible prices.
 
 The _accuracy_ of a risk-oriented estimate remains roughly the same
 (approaching 100% with continuous input)
-through the takeoff process and, assuming no incorrect input,
+through the takeoff process, and, assuming no incorrect input,
 is entirely out of the hands of the estimator doing the "takeoff".
 The previous chapters describe how a centralized system
 separates the concerns of adjustment factors