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+# 2026-01-25 21:02:??
+
+[[the-failure-of-risk-management]]
+
+If I have a general complaint about [[hubbard_2020_failure]] it's this:
+Hubbard fails to recognize logical parallels between his different arguments,
+so to a critical reader they appear contradictory:
+
+In [[hubbard_2020_failure#Break It Down, Then Do the Math]]
+Hubbard introduces **decomposition** as a method for reducing error in estimates,
+Providing Fermi's "piano tuners in Chicago" problem as an example,
+without acknowledging that _Fermi_ supplied the decomposition.
+Hubbard also references [[macgregor_1994_judgemental-decomposition]]
+which is a similar case.
+Neither of these examples suggest that decomposition is a magic bullet,
+or even that a layman's decomposition wouldn't be worse than nothing.
+Despite this, Hubbard ends the section without qualifier:
+"Clearly, decomposition helps estimates."
+
+This section comes only pages after
+[[hubbard_2020_failure#The Measurement Inversion]]
+in which Hubbard warns against seeking detail for the sake of it.
+
+See also [[the-failure-of-risk-management#_Exsupero Ursus_]].