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+# 2026-01-25 22:59:??
+
+[[macgregor_1994_judgemental-decomposition]]
+
+I really hate this study.
+
+I may be out of my league,
+but it seems wrong to draw conclusions about decomposition as a method
+when the work was done by the researchers,
+especially when some of their decompositions really suck.
+
+> ##### Circumference of 50¢ coin
+> 
+> * Diameter in inches of a 50¢ coin
+> * Number of pieces of string the length of the diameter needed to wrap around circumference
+
+That's not a decomposition.
+If you don't remember $\pi$
+that's a harder problem than it was before.
+
+> ##### Bushels of wheat
+>
+> * Population of the world
+> * Number of bushels of wheat consumed per person per year
+> * Proportion of wheat wasted per year
+
+I might have included how much a bushel is,[^1]
+there's an order of magnitude right there.
+
+[^1]: $1~\text{US bushel} \equiv 9\frac{3571}{11550}~\text{US Gallons} \approx 9.3~\text{US Gallons}$
+
+The study suggests decomposition has no effect on estimate _confidence_
+---which I'm tempted to believe because its funny
+and it tracks with my anecdotal experience---
+but I wonder if subjects using their own decompositions would present similarly.