vault backup: 2026-02-20 14:53:32

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parent 75883d1e4e
commit 7921929978
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@@ -5,41 +5,8 @@ title: 2025-11-01
 tags:
  - authorship/original
  - destiny/permanent
  - original-format/typewritten-print
  - status/complete
  - type/periodic/daily
 dg-publish: true
 ---
 # 2025-11-01
 # 2025-11-01 05:41:??
 _Saturday Morning_
 Somehow I've already let an hour get away from me.
 Today I need to do some cleaning: a load of laundry and leftover dishes
 at least. I'll do those after I finish this note, plus some pushups, before
 I shower and change to go visit the birds across the street. Later I'll need
 to go to the store for more sliced almonds and coconut oil so I can make granola
 for tomorrow's breakfast. I'll go to Walmart so I can get a new mattress
 protector, too. Copy paper, a 3-hole punch and a small binder would also be
 nice for my typewriter journaling.
 # 2025-11-01 07:06:??
 _Saturday Morning_
 I wasted more time doomscrolling after my last note, but I did manage
 to do the laundry, dishes, and pushups. Now I need to shower and dress in time
 to see the birds.
 # 2025-11-01 08:25:??
 #topic/hobbies/birding
 There were fewer than yesterday, but still a ton. There was a chill, but
 I was dressed well for it. I think with exposure the birds will get used to
 mg presence. I saw a bald eagle (_Haliaeetus leucocephalus_) for the first time
 in Florida. They are ugly creatures, of both body and spirit, unlike the wood
 stork (_Mycteria americana_) which is uglier of body, but pure of heart.
 There was also some guy getting dumped on the phone and not taking it well.
@@ -71,5 +71,5 @@ enough times independently
 that I would likely benefit from it.
 I added [[leslie-et-al_1968_gregg-notehand|a book]]
-on [[shorthand#Gregg Notehand]]
+on [[shorthand#Gregg Notehand|Gregg Notehand]]
 to my calibre library.
@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 ---
-id:
+id: 2025-11-20T08:46:00-05:00
 aliases: []
 tags:
  - authorship/original
@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ dg-publish: true
 #topic/meta
 I definitively think my new approach
-of putting nascent ideas in [[daily-notes|daily notes]]
+of putting nascent ideas in [[periodic-notes|daily notes]]
 rather than separate fleeting notes
 is superior.
@@ -9,6 +9,8 @@ tags:
  - type/periodic/daily
 dg-publish: true
 ---
 # 2026-01-02
 # 2026-01-02 10:10:18
 ### Harborside Plaza 4
@@ -10,116 +10,3 @@ tags:
 dg-publish: true
 ---
 # 2026-01-12
 # 2026-01-12 10:00:??
 #occupational
 ### ECH3 Executed Contract Revision WBS
 For Executed Contract Revisions, Bid GP% must be maintained.
 In this case a negative variance was added to the buyout budget
 in order to compensate for an increase in permit fee coverage.
 # 2026-01-12 10:42:30
 #occupational
 ### Woodbrook Executed Contract Revision Takeoff Check
 #### Unit Dishwasher/Disposal
 Drawings show 2 separate duplex receptacles for dishwasher and disposal
 Takeoff used `DW & DISPOSAL DUAL CIR - ...`,
 which includes only one receptacle.
 According to Joel this takeoff is correct for the scenario.
 # 2026-01-12 12:23:??
 #occupational
 Travelling with Brian Smarslok and Joel Jansen on [[2026-01-15]]
 to visit [[#Woodbury Heights|an awarded project]] in New Jersey.
 Flying from TPA to PHL, departure @ 7:00AM.
 We'll be meeting with the developer, [Greystar](https://www.greystar.com/).
 ### Woodbury Heights
 ```yaml
 project-name: GSC Ltd. Woodbury Heights (aka Academy Pointe)
 sector: Residential
 market-type: Apartment
 bldg-type: Garden
 construction-method: Wood Frame
 construction-type: V
 unit-wiring-method: Romex
 code-data: NEC2020
 mech-system: Split Dx
 buildings: 9
 floors: 3
 units: 234
 gross-area: 266,272
 area-by-type:
    - exterior-amenity: 12,306
    - interior-amenity: 5,031
    - garage: 3,788
    - saleable: 223,172
 division: MA 1
 geographic-region: Northeast
 metro-area: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
 municipality-or-ahj: City of Woodbury
 power-company: PSE&G
 stakeholders:
    - developer: Greystar (HQ - Charleston, SC)
      architect: LS3P Associates Ltd
      electrical-engineer: Hurst Engineering
 contract-value: 2,305,000.00
 start-date: 2025-05-01
 end-date: 2026-08-26
 duration: 11 months
 ```
 #### GP Variance
 > [!info]
 > "GP%" is **margin** (see [[markup-vs-margin]]).
 The job appears to be doing poorly, at current GP variance of -$299,356.
 About $93,000.00 profit on a $2,391,378 job (~3% margin, down from 16.4% as bid).
 Intend to ask Joel what was missed if he knows,
 and more generally if he has a strategy for figuring out,
 between BPM, The Hub, and however many other places we can look.
 I doubt very seriously that mismanagement
 can be blamed for any significant portion of variance that extreme.
 # 2026-01-12 13:02:??
 #topic/construction
 **Dry utilities:** utilities other than "wet" utilities (water, sewer, stormwater),
 namely power, data, and natural gas.
 # 2026-01-12 13:02:??
 #occupational
 Joel attributes the [[#GP Variance|apparent variance]] to
 1. missed Polaris lugs for feeders for one building,
 2. insufficient budget for equipment rental, and
 3. upfront costs already paid (construction is 50% complete).
 He also said that operations accused ConEst
 of providing insufficient length for subfeeds,
 which he said was true,
 but not to the extent accused
 (only ~600ft missed total).
 The award WBS shows $32,382 for equipment rental
 I'm dubious of all these explanations,
 but I don't have another one.
 I can't find the ConEst folder or Accubid file.
@@ -10,60 +10,3 @@ tags:
 dg-publish: true
 ---
 # 2026-01-19
 # 2026-01-19 11:57:39
 Follow-up to [[2026-01-10#2026-01-10 08:42]]
 A **natural language parser** would be a big help
 for the sort of formatting I've been doing recently.
 [[nfpa-70_national-electric-code]]
 [[semantic-line-breaks]]
 [[2025-10-26#2025-10-26 18:36 --- Sunday evening]]
 # 2026-01-19 12:32:??
 #topic/construction #topic/estimating
 Real example of [[location-vs-scope]]:
 450-460 James Robertson Parkway Phase II (fka James Roberston Pkwy Mixed Use Development)
 Project is two buildings: Residential and Hotel,
 entirely separate physically and electrically.
 Generators for both are located on a lower roof of Residential.
 # 2026-01-19 18:13:??
 ### Smart Home
 One of the most exciting aspects of home ownership to me
 is that I'll finally be able to go full smart home.
 A programmable thermostat is at the top of my todo list,
 for energy efficiency, but mostly habit enforcement.
 I can not sleep without blankets, and I can not sleep hot.
 Turning on the lights as an alarm is usually effective,
 but when it's cold I find it hard not cover my face and go back to sleep.
 In general the ability to make one's house unfit for relaxation
 at certain hours of the week is very powerful.
 Google's Nest is the stereotypical smart thermostat,
 but devices using a local, non-Wi-Fi protocol
 like [Zigbee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zigbee)
 or [Z-Wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z-Wave)
 ought to be preferred.
 ### Ulysses Pacts
 The most challenging part of implementing Ulysses pacts with yourself
 is that sometimes you really _do_ need to jump in after the sirens, %% that's a stretch %%
 but if you allow yourself an out for emergencies
 you will almost certainly use it inappropriately in a moment of weakness.
 I know I will, anyway.
 Rarely can my fear of disappointing myself
 overwhelm the immediate appeal of whatever I'm keeping from myself.
@@ -10,29 +10,3 @@ tags:
 dg-publish: true
 ---
 # 2026-01-20
 # 2026-01-20 09:09:12
 Stumbled upon this line while waiting on my computer to restart.
 > [!quote] [[hubbard_2020_failure#The Measurement Inversion]]
 > Unless we estimate the value of information,
 > we may go down the deep rabbit hole of adding more and more detail to a model
 > and trying to gather data on less relevant issues.
 # 2026-01-20 10:10:??
 I was reminded again of [[2025-12-04#2025-12-04 09:51]].
 I added a [[small-tasks|task]] for it.
 [html-calculators](https://github.com/ZaneMeyers/html-calculators)
 I'm now certain that common estimating calculators
 (e.g. voltage drop)
 could be easily replaced with documents like this one.
 # 2026-01-20 14:25:??
 Jfarrari The Unknowing (Acoustic)
 [[music-analysis]]
@@ -10,79 +10,3 @@ tags:
 dg-publish: true
 ---
 # 2026-01-22
 # 2026-01-22 09:55:42
 #occupational
 The lighting drawings for
 450-460 James Robertson Parkway Phase II
 (fka James Roberston Pkwy Mixed Use Development)
 show occupancy sensors serving electrical rooms.
 I knew this was understood to be prohibited,
 but could not have provided a code reference.
 [[nfpa-70_110_requirements#110.26(D) Illumination.|110.26(D)]]
 is the relevant section.
 # 2026-01-22 11:58:??
 #occupational
 ### 463 Davison Contract Dates
 [[463-davison-ave-ne]]
 Effective date: [[2026-01-21]]
 * [x] Escrow deposit due by [[2026-01-26]]
 * [x] Loan application submitted by [[2026-01-26]]
 * [x] Inspection period ends [[2026-01-28]]
 * [x] Loan approval due by [[2026-02-11]]
 * [ ] Title commitment due by [[2026-02-27]]
 Closing: [[2026-03-04]]
 # 2026-01-22 14:56:??
 #topic/estimating
 ### Accurate Budget Vs. Accurate BOM
 #### Quote
 > [!quote] Joel Jansen [[2026-01-15#2026-01-15 13:27]] (pp.)
 > I'd rather have an accurate budget than an accurate BOM.
 #### Context
 #### Analysis
 It may be counterintuitive to BOM-oriented estimators
 (typical of those with an electrical background),
 but deviating from organization standard practice
 to make an assembly "more accurate"
 (read: to make the estimate BOM
 more closely resemble the construction BOM),
 may make the budget _less_ accurate.
 The review and adjustment process
 is based on standard practice,
 so deviations may have unpredictable effects.
 Our assemblies do not include screws.
 It would be more accurate to the BOM to add them,
 but we budget for that cost in the summary,
 so to do so would be double dipping.
 Though not stated as such,
 we budget for takeoff-to-install deviations the same way.
 \
 An organization's takeoff database
 ought to include exactly what is necessary for takeoff
 at the acceptable level of detail, and nothing else.
 It ought to be assumed by estimators that the previous is true,
 and that acceptable takeoff of any scope
 must be possible with the contents of the database.
@@ -11,33 +11,4 @@ dg-publish: true
 ---
 # 2026-01-23
 # 2026-01-23 08:18:53
 This morning I was thinking about the "slippery slope fallacy"
 and how it's a common instrument of an appeal to fallacy fallacy.
 As it turns out, the potential validity of slippery slope arguments is well studied.
 [Sorites paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sorites_paradox#Continuum_fallacy)
 [Many-valued logic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Many-valued_logic)
 [Fuzzy logic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_logic)
 Strictly speaking, a slippery slope argument is only fallacious
 if it is not _necessarily_ true that one event must follow another.
 # 2026-01-23 12:34:??
 Migrated several notes from Google's Keep
 [[2025-10-20#2025-10-20 ??:??]]
 [[2026-01-04#2026-01-04 ??:??]]
 [[my-resoluute-banjo]]
 [[pats-browning-a5]]
 # 2026-01-23 12:56:??
 Today the vault hit 50,000 words not including reference material.
@@ -10,117 +10,3 @@ tags:
 dg-publish: true
 ---
 # 2026-01-25
 # 2026-01-25 18:46:??
 #topic/finance
 ### Calculating Monthly Principal & Interest Payment
 For a **fixed-rate, fully-amortizing mortgage**,
 the monthly payment is computed using the **standard amortization formula**:
 #### Standard Amortization Formula
 $$
 A = P \cdot \frac{i(1+i)^n}{(1+i)^n-1}
 $$
 Where:
 * $A$ = periodic payment amount
 * $P$ = amount of principal, net of initial payments
 * $i$ = periodic interest rate
 * $n$ = total number of payments
 > [!info]
 > $A$ is constant over the term,
 > the interest portion decreases while the principal portion increases.
 #### Example
 For a 30-year mortgage of $268,000 at 5.75% annual interest:
 $$
 \begin{align*}
 P &= 268000
 i &= \frac{0.0575}{12} = 0.004791\bar{6} \\
 n &= 30 \cdot 12 = 360
 \end{align*}
 $$
 The monthly payment amount $A$ is given by:
 $$
 \begin{align*}
 A &= 268000 \cdot \frac{0.004791\bar{6} \cdot (1+ 0.004791\bar{6})^{360}}{(1+ 0.004791\bar{6})^{360} - 1} \\
 A &\approx 1563.98
 \end{align*}
 $$
 ### Calculating Annual Percentage Rate (APR)
 $$
 \text{APR} = \frac{\frac{\text{Interest} + \text{Fees}}{\text{Principle}}}{\text{Term Years}}
 $$
 # 2026-01-25 21:02:??
 [[the-failure-of-risk-management]]
 If I have a general complaint about [[hubbard_2020_failure]] it's this:
 Hubbard fails to recognize logical parallels between his different arguments,
 so to a critical reader they appear contradictory:
 In [[hubbard_2020_failure#Break It Down, Then Do the Math]]
 Hubbard introduces **decomposition** as a method for reducing error in estimates,
 Providing Fermi's "piano tuners in Chicago" problem as an example,
 without acknowledging that _Fermi_ supplied the decomposition.
 Hubbard also references [[macgregor_1994_judgemental-decomposition]]
 which is a similar case.
 Neither of these examples suggest that decomposition is a magic bullet,
 or even that a layman's decomposition wouldn't be worse than nothing.
 Despite this, Hubbard ends the section without qualifier:
 "Clearly, decomposition helps estimates."
 This section comes only pages after
 [[hubbard_2020_failure#The Measurement Inversion]]
 in which Hubbard warns against seeking detail for the sake of it.
 See also [[the-failure-of-risk-management#_Exsupero Ursus_]].
 # 2026-01-25 22:59:??
 [[macgregor_1994_judgemental-decomposition]]
 I really hate this study.
 I may be out of my league,
 but it seems wrong to draw conclusions about decomposition as a method
 when the work was done by the researchers,
 especially when some of their decompositions really suck.
 > ##### Circumference of 50¢ coin
 > 
 > * Diameter in inches of a 50¢ coin
 > * Number of pieces of string the length of the diameter needed to wrap around circumference
 That's not a decomposition.
 If you don't remember $\pi$
 that's a harder problem than it was before.
 > ##### Bushels of wheat
 >
 > * Population of the world
 > * Number of bushels of wheat consumed per person per year
 > * Proportion of wheat wasted per year
 I might have included how much a bushel is,[^1]
 there's an order of magnitude right there.
 [^1]: $1~\text{US bushel} \equiv 9\frac{3571}{11550}~\text{US Gallons} \approx 9.3~\text{US Gallons}$
 The study suggests decomposition has no effect on estimate _confidence_
 ---which I'm tempted to believe because its funny
 and it tracks with my anecdotal experience---
 but I wonder if subjects using their own decompositions would present similarly.
@@ -10,38 +10,3 @@ tags:
 dg-publish: true
 ---
 # 2026-01-28
 # 2026-01-28 09:51:08
 #occupational
 ### ConEst OneNote Template
 The ConEst OneNote template concept
 is flawed in ways that can not be addressed in OneNote,
 but it has good ideas, too;
 some I would not have thought could work so well.
 #### Takeoff Checklist
 At Ace my takeoff notes were entirely freeform,
 and I would have balked at the idea of using a standard checklist.
 Our projects were so varied
 that no list could be generic enough
 to approach universal applicability
 without being so shallow
 as to be useless to an experienced estimator.
 #### Estimator Initials
 Voluntary commitment to responsibility.
 An estimator adding their initials
 knows they are expected to be familiar with the scope.
 # 2026-01-28 10:02:??
 #topic/meta
 I'm tempted to replace [[daily-notes]] with timestamped notes
 from core plugins Unique Note Creator,
 however the utility of the calendar widget is hard to concede.
@@ -10,98 +10,3 @@ tags:
 dg-publish: true
 ---
 # 2026-01-29
 # 2026-01-29 10:07:37
 #topic/estimating
 A peer's senior, expressing frustration,
 told them that it if they disagree with an instruction,
 they must have a reason,
 implying that the estimator's previous complaints,
 which were based on conflicting direction
 received from other estimators and seniors,
 were made _without_ reason.
 See [[realism-vs-instrumentalism]].
 The peer's senior is looking for a _realist_ objection to his methods,
 which an estimator without field experience (which the senior has)
 would be unlikely to be able to provide.
 Their dismissal of legitimate _instrumental_ complaints
 (misplaced effort, and deviation from more widely accepted standards)
 speaks to a fundamental misunderstanding of the purpose of estimating.
 # 2026-01-29 17:57:??
 #topic/finance
 ### Calculating Utility of Above-Minimum Mortgage Payment
 See [[2026-01-25#Calculating Monthly Principal & Interest Payment]].
 Homeowners are often advised to make elective mortgage payments
 to reduce the total interest paid on the loan,
 but an unrelated investment with a sufficient return
 could outweigh the reduced loss.
 Suppose you have a budget surplus of $E$ dollars
 and are deciding whether to make an elective payment on your mortgage
 or to invest in a promising opportunity.
 The return on electing to pay $E$ to the mortgage
 is the
 (i.e., interest that will no longer accrue)
 at the end of the loan is:
 $$
 R_{\text{mortgage}} = E(1+i)^{n}
 $$
 > [!info]- Explanation
 > This formula may seem suspiciously straightforward,
 > but suppose you did _not_ contribute $E$.
 > That portion of the principle would accrue interest
 > every month at rate $i$.
 > After $n$ months, the interest accrued by that portion is given by:
 >
 > $$
 > E(1+i)^{n}
 > $$
 If the same $E$ is invested elsewhere at monthly return $j$,
 its future value after $n$ months takes the same form:
 $$
 \text{FV}_{\text{investment}} = E(1+j)^{n}
 $$
 Therefore, $j$ must exceed $i$
 for the alternative investment to be preferable to elective payment.
 Note that $i$ and $j$ are adjusted rates,
 including respect for taxes and utility.
 On second thought, in a utility context,
 time preference could make $j$ preferable
 even when slightly lower.
 Short-term investments may be favored
 when liquidity is needed during the term,
 and tax deferred investments (IRA)
 are strongly favored over elective payment
 since interest is deductible
 (effective interest < nominal).
 ### Calculating Effect of Elective Payment on Term Length
 The monthly payment and interest rate are fixed,
 so the term length must decrease
 $$
 \begin{align}
 A &= P \cdot \frac{i(1+i)^n}{(1+i)^n-1} \\
 P &= A \cdot \frac{(1+i)^n-1}{i(1+i)^n} \\
 n &= \frac{\ln\left(\frac{A}{A-Pi}\right)}{\ln(1+i)} \\
 \end{align}
 $$
@@ -10,90 +10,3 @@ tags:
 dg-publish: true
 ---
 # 2026-01-30
 # 2026-01-30 08:44:29
 #topic/meta
 Follow-up to [[2026-01-28#2026-01-28 10:02]].
 I really would like to implement timestamped notes,
 especially while it's still somewhat practical to split my old dailies.
 Only the lack of plugin support stops me.
 # 2026-01-30 09:06:??
 #topic/meta
 I tried the Smart Connections community plugin.
 I can't imagine who it could be useful for.
 It seems to just identify large blocks of similar content,
 which means that every daily note is connected to every other.
 # 2026-01-30 13:42:??
 Often when I consider learning a new skill or improving an existing one,
 I conceive of a system that would _force_ me to improve,
 rather than forget about it (as I am won to do).
 See [[2026-01-19#Ulysses Pacts]].
 Conventional "home assistant" tech and doctrine
 caters to a class of people I find bizarre,
 those that would spend enormous sums of cash and effort
 just for the marginal benefit
 of not having to touch light switches as often as normal people.
 Instead they get to take out their phone,
 find and open the light switch app,
 and touch a virtual light switch
 because the routines they programmed were too conservative.
 Human or software,
 an assistant without agency
 _and the will to contradict you_
 is worthless.
 If the effort to _communicate_ your instructions
 exceeds the effort to perform them,
 you will always do the task yourself.
 # 2026-01-30 16:29:??
 #topic/math/statistics
 ### Laplace's Rule of Succession (LRS)
 > [!info]
 > Pierre-Simon Laplace
 If some event occurred $m$ times in $n$ observations,
 the probability the event will occur in the next observation
 is given by:
 $$
 \frac{1+m}{2+n}
 $$
 ### Rule of Five
 The probability that any given sample is above the median is 50%.
 The probability that the minimum and maximum values of $n$ samples
 _don't_ straddle the median is $(\frac{1}{2})^{n}$,
 equivalent to getting the same result on a flipped coin
 $n$ times in a row.
 There is a 93.75% chance that the median of a population
 is between the smallest and largest values
 in any random sample of five from that population.
 # 2026-01-30 18:33:??
 #topic/personal-productivity
 Why is it that I find it so easy, even compulsory,
 to clean my house while working from home,
 even after returning from work on-site?
 Why again does that feeling of necessity
 persist even into the evening,
 when I would normally be home anyway,
 but unable to summon the will to do anything
 about rapidly growing piles of dirty dishes and clothes?
@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ For those that do, see [[TODO]].
 _Task_ (italicized) as used in this note,
 refers specifically to the Task community plugin's definition.
-_Tasks_ should generally be created only in [[daily-notes]].
+_Tasks_ should generally be created only in [[periodic-notes]].
 If created in the note they reference they will want to be deleted after resolution,
 which I feel defeats the purpose of the plugin.
@@ -153,7 +153,7 @@ in the wider industry.
 ### #type/idea
 > [!danger] Deprecated Tag
-> Use of this tag has been deprecated in favor of [[daily-notes]].
+> Use of this tag has been deprecated in favor of [[periodic-notes]].
 Items of `#type/idea` are recommendation
 that I do something in the future,
@@ -30,7 +30,7 @@ The rest is whatever else I feel is worth writing down.
 It's hard for me to reconcile the idea of daily notes
 with the purpose of [[personal-knowledge-management]] as I see it.
 Nonetheless, they are popular, and generally enjoyable to write.
-See [[daily-notes]] for appropriate use.
+See [[periodic-notes]] for appropriate use.
 ## Purpose
@@ -16,8 +16,6 @@ dg-publish: true
 ## Estimating Isn't Engineering
 #topic/estimating
 A peer recently expressed frustration to me
 about the declining quality of construction drawings,
 specifically how systems are often missing details
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
 ---
 id:
 aliases: []
 title: 2025-11-01 05:41:??
 tags:
  - authorship/original
  - destiny/permanent
  - original-format/typewritten-print
  - status/draft
  - type/timestamped
 dg-publish: true
 ---
 # 2025-11-01 05:41:??
 _Saturday Morning_
 Somehow I've already let an hour get away from me.
 Today I need to do some cleaning: a load of laundry and leftover dishes
 at least. I'll do those after I finish this note, plus some pushups, before
 I shower and change to go visit the birds across the street. Later I'll need
 to go to the store for more sliced almonds and coconut oil so I can make granola
 for tomorrow's breakfast. I'll go to Walmart so I can get a new mattress
 protector, too. Copy paper, a 3-hole punch and a small binder would also be
 nice for my typewriter journaling.
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
 ---
 id:
 aliases: []
 title: 2025-11-01 07:06:??
 tags:
  - authorship/original
  - destiny/permanent
  - original-format/typewritten-print
  - status/draft
  - type/timestamped
 dg-publish: true
 ---
 # 2025-11-01 07:06:??
 _Saturday Morning_
 I wasted more time doomscrolling after my last note, but I did manage
 to do the laundry, dishes, and pushups. Now I need to shower and dress in time
 to see the birds.
@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
 ---
 id:
 aliases: []
 title: 2025-11-01 08:25:??
 tags:
  - authorship/original
  - destiny/permanent
  - original-format/typewritten-print
  - status/draft
  - topic/hobbies/birding
  - type/timestamped
 dg-publish: true
 ---
 # 2025-11-01 08:25:??
 There were fewer than yesterday, but still a ton. There was a chill, but
 I was dressed well for it. I think with exposure the birds will get used to
 mg presence. I saw a bald eagle (_Haliaeetus leucocephalus_) for the first time
 in Florida. They are ugly creatures, of both body and spirit, unlike the wood
 stork (_Mycteria americana_) which is uglier of body, but pure of heart.
 There was also some guy getting dumped on the phone and not taking it well.
@@ -6,12 +6,12 @@ tags:
  - authorship/original
  - destiny/permanent
  - status/complete
  - occupational
  - type/minutes
 dg-publish: true
 ---
 # 2025-11-04 14:52:05
 #occupational #type/minutes
 ### Belle Meade Director Review
 #### Takeoff Review
@@ -7,14 +7,13 @@ tags:
  - destiny/permanent
  - status/draft
  - type/timestamped
  - occupational
 dg-publish: true
 ---
 # 2025-11-18 16:33:??
 ## Elliot St. ConEst Senior Review
 #occupational
 %%
 Transcription of notes
 taken while reviewing Elliot St. with Joel Jansen.
@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
 # 2026-01-12 10:00:??
 #occupational
 ### ECH3 Executed Contract Revision WBS
 For Executed Contract Revisions, Bid GP% must be maintained.
 In this case a negative variance was added to the buyout budget
 in order to compensate for an increase in permit fee coverage.
@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
 # 2026-01-12 10:42:30
 #occupational
 ### Woodbrook Executed Contract Revision Takeoff Check
 #### Unit Dishwasher/Disposal
 Drawings show 2 separate duplex receptacles for dishwasher and disposal
 Takeoff used `DW & DISPOSAL DUAL CIR - ...`,
 which includes only one receptacle.
 According to Joel this takeoff is correct for the scenario.
@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
 # 2026-01-12 12:23:??
 #occupational
 Travelling with Brian Smarslok and Joel Jansen on [[2026-01-15]]
 to visit [[#Woodbury Heights|an awarded project]] in New Jersey.
 Flying from TPA to PHL, departure @ 7:00AM.
 We'll be meeting with the developer, [Greystar](https://www.greystar.com/).
 ### Woodbury Heights
 ```yaml
 project-name: GSC Ltd. Woodbury Heights (aka Academy Pointe)
 sector: Residential
 market-type: Apartment
 bldg-type: Garden
 construction-method: Wood Frame
 construction-type: V
 unit-wiring-method: Romex
 code-data: NEC2020
 mech-system: Split Dx
 buildings: 9
 floors: 3
 units: 234
 gross-area: 266,272
 area-by-type:
    - exterior-amenity: 12,306
    - interior-amenity: 5,031
    - garage: 3,788
    - saleable: 223,172
 division: MA 1
 geographic-region: Northeast
 metro-area: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
 municipality-or-ahj: City of Woodbury
 power-company: PSE&G
 stakeholders:
    - developer: Greystar (HQ - Charleston, SC)
      architect: LS3P Associates Ltd
      electrical-engineer: Hurst Engineering
 contract-value: 2,305,000.00
 start-date: 2025-05-01
 end-date: 2026-08-26
 duration: 11 months
 ```
 #### GP Variance
 > [!info]
 > "GP%" is **margin** (see [[markup-vs-margin]]).
 The job appears to be doing poorly, at current GP variance of -$299,356.
 About $93,000.00 profit on a $2,391,378 job (~3% margin, down from 16.4% as bid).
 Intend to ask Joel what was missed if he knows,
 and more generally if he has a strategy for figuring out,
 between BPM, The Hub, and however many other places we can look.
 I doubt very seriously that mismanagement
 can be blamed for any significant portion of variance that extreme.
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
 # 2026-01-12 13:02:??
 #topic/construction
 **Dry utilities:** utilities other than "wet" utilities (water, sewer, stormwater),
 namely power, data, and natural gas.
 # 2026-01-12 13:02:??
 #occupational
 Joel attributes the [[#GP Variance|apparent variance]] to
 1. missed Polaris lugs for feeders for one building,
 2. insufficient budget for equipment rental, and
 3. upfront costs already paid (construction is 50% complete).
 He also said that operations accused ConEst
 of providing insufficient length for subfeeds,
 which he said was true,
 but not to the extent accused
 (only ~600ft missed total).
 The award WBS shows $32,382 for equipment rental
 I'm dubious of all these explanations,
 but I don't have another one.
 I can't find the ConEst folder or Accubid file.
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
 # 2026-01-19 11:57:39
 Follow-up to [[2026-01-10#2026-01-10 08:42]]
 A **natural language parser** would be a big help
 for the sort of formatting I've been doing recently.
 [[nfpa-70_national-electric-code]]
 [[semantic-line-breaks]]
 [[2025-10-26#2025-10-26 18:36 --- Sunday evening]]
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
 # 2026-01-19 12:32:??
 #topic/construction #topic/estimating
 Real example of [[location-vs-scope]]:
 450-460 James Robertson Parkway Phase II (fka James Roberston Pkwy Mixed Use Development)
 Project is two buildings: Residential and Hotel,
 entirely separate physically and electrically.
 Generators for both are located on a lower roof of Residential.
@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
 # 2026-01-19 18:13:??
 ### Smart Home
 One of the most exciting aspects of home ownership to me
 is that I'll finally be able to go full smart home.
 A programmable thermostat is at the top of my todo list,
 for energy efficiency, but mostly habit enforcement.
 I can not sleep without blankets, and I can not sleep hot.
 Turning on the lights as an alarm is usually effective,
 but when it's cold I find it hard not cover my face and go back to sleep.
 In general the ability to make one's house unfit for relaxation
 at certain hours of the week is very powerful.
 Google's Nest is the stereotypical smart thermostat,
 but devices using a local, non-Wi-Fi protocol
 like [Zigbee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zigbee)
 or [Z-Wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z-Wave)
 ought to be preferred.
 ### Ulysses Pacts
 The most challenging part of implementing Ulysses pacts with yourself
 is that sometimes you really _do_ need to jump in after the sirens, %% that's a stretch %%
 but if you allow yourself an out for emergencies
 you will almost certainly use it inappropriately in a moment of weakness.
 I know I will, anyway.
 Rarely can my fear of disappointing myself
 overwhelm the immediate appeal of whatever I'm keeping from myself.
@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
 # 2026-01-20 09:09:12
 Stumbled upon this line while waiting on my computer to restart.
 > [!quote] [[hubbard_2020_failure#The Measurement Inversion]]
 > Unless we estimate the value of information,
 > we may go down the deep rabbit hole of adding more and more detail to a model
 > and trying to gather data on less relevant issues.
@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
 # 2026-01-20 10:10:??
 I was reminded again of [[2025-12-04#2025-12-04 09:51]].
 I added a [[small-tasks|task]] for it.
 [html-calculators](https://github.com/ZaneMeyers/html-calculators)
 I'm now certain that common estimating calculators
 (e.g. voltage drop)
 could be easily replaced with documents like this one.
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
 # 2026-01-20 14:25:??
 Jfarrari The Unknowing (Acoustic)
 [[music-analysis]]
@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
 # 2026-01-22 09:55:42
 #occupational
 The lighting drawings for
 450-460 James Robertson Parkway Phase II
 (fka James Roberston Pkwy Mixed Use Development)
 show occupancy sensors serving electrical rooms.
 I knew this was understood to be prohibited,
 but could not have provided a code reference.
 [[nfpa-70_110_requirements#110.26(D) Illumination.|110.26(D)]]
 is the relevant section.
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
 # 2026-01-22 11:58:??
 #occupational
 ### 463 Davison Contract Dates
 [[463-davison-ave-ne]]
 Effective date: [[2026-01-21]]
 * [x] Escrow deposit due by [[2026-01-26]]
 * [x] Loan application submitted by [[2026-01-26]]
 * [x] Inspection period ends [[2026-01-28]]
 * [x] Loan approval due by [[2026-02-11]]
 * [ ] Title commitment due by [[2026-02-27]]
 Closing: [[2026-03-04]]
@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
 # 2026-01-22 14:56:??
 #topic/estimating
 ### Accurate Budget Vs. Accurate BOM
 #### Quote
 > [!quote] Joel Jansen [[2026-01-15#2026-01-15 13:27]] (pp.)
 > I'd rather have an accurate budget than an accurate BOM.
 #### Context
 #### Analysis
 It may be counterintuitive to BOM-oriented estimators
 (typical of those with an electrical background),
 but deviating from organization standard practice
 to make an assembly "more accurate"
 (read: to make the estimate BOM
 more closely resemble the construction BOM),
 may make the budget _less_ accurate.
 The review and adjustment process
 is based on standard practice,
 so deviations may have unpredictable effects.
 Our assemblies do not include screws.
 It would be more accurate to the BOM to add them,
 but we budget for that cost in the summary,
 so to do so would be double dipping.
 Though not stated as such,
 we budget for takeoff-to-install deviations the same way.
 \
 An organization's takeoff database
 ought to include exactly what is necessary for takeoff
 at the acceptable level of detail, and nothing else.
 It ought to be assumed by estimators that the previous is true,
 and that acceptable takeoff of any scope
 must be possible with the contents of the database.
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
 # 2026-01-23 08:18:53
 This morning I was thinking about the "slippery slope fallacy"
 and how it's a common instrument of an appeal to fallacy fallacy.
 As it turns out, the potential validity of slippery slope arguments is well studied.
 [Sorites paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sorites_paradox#Continuum_fallacy)
 [Many-valued logic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Many-valued_logic)
 [Fuzzy logic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_logic)
 Strictly speaking, a slippery slope argument is only fallacious
 if it is not _necessarily_ true that one event must follow another.
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
 # 2026-01-23 12:34:??
 Migrated several notes from Google's Keep
 [[2025-10-20#2025-10-20 ??:??]]
 [[2026-01-04#2026-01-04 ??:??]]
 [[my-resoluute-banjo]]
 [[pats-browning-a5]]
@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
 # 2026-01-25 18:46:??
 #topic/finance
 ### Calculating Monthly Principal & Interest Payment
 For a **fixed-rate, fully-amortizing mortgage**,
 the monthly payment is computed using the **standard amortization formula**:
 #### Standard Amortization Formula
 $$
 A = P \cdot \frac{i(1+i)^n}{(1+i)^n-1}
 $$
 Where:
 * $A$ = periodic payment amount
 * $P$ = amount of principal, net of initial payments
 * $i$ = periodic interest rate
 * $n$ = total number of payments
 > [!info]
 > $A$ is constant over the term,
 > the interest portion decreases while the principal portion increases.
 #### Example
 For a 30-year mortgage of $268,000 at 5.75% annual interest:
 $$
 \begin{align*}
 P &= 268000
 i &= \frac{0.0575}{12} = 0.004791\bar{6} \\
 n &= 30 \cdot 12 = 360
 \end{align*}
 $$
 The monthly payment amount $A$ is given by:
 $$
 \begin{align*}
 A &= 268000 \cdot \frac{0.004791\bar{6} \cdot (1+ 0.004791\bar{6})^{360}}{(1+ 0.004791\bar{6})^{360} - 1} \\
 A &\approx 1563.98
 \end{align*}
 $$
 ### Calculating Annual Percentage Rate (APR)
 $$
 \text{APR} = \frac{\frac{\text{Interest} + \text{Fees}}{\text{Principle}}}{\text{Term Years}}
 $$
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
 # 2026-01-25 21:02:??
 [[the-failure-of-risk-management]]
 If I have a general complaint about [[hubbard_2020_failure]] it's this:
 Hubbard fails to recognize logical parallels between his different arguments,
 so to a critical reader they appear contradictory:
 In [[hubbard_2020_failure#Break It Down, Then Do the Math]]
 Hubbard introduces **decomposition** as a method for reducing error in estimates,
 Providing Fermi's "piano tuners in Chicago" problem as an example,
 without acknowledging that _Fermi_ supplied the decomposition.
 Hubbard also references [[macgregor_1994_judgemental-decomposition]]
 which is a similar case.
 Neither of these examples suggest that decomposition is a magic bullet,
 or even that a layman's decomposition wouldn't be worse than nothing.
 Despite this, Hubbard ends the section without qualifier:
 "Clearly, decomposition helps estimates."
 This section comes only pages after
 [[hubbard_2020_failure#The Measurement Inversion]]
 in which Hubbard warns against seeking detail for the sake of it.
 See also [[the-failure-of-risk-management#_Exsupero Ursus_]].
@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
 # 2026-01-25 22:59:??
 [[macgregor_1994_judgemental-decomposition]]
 I really hate this study.
 I may be out of my league,
 but it seems wrong to draw conclusions about decomposition as a method
 when the work was done by the researchers,
 especially when some of their decompositions really suck.
 > ##### Circumference of 50¢ coin
 > 
 > * Diameter in inches of a 50¢ coin
 > * Number of pieces of string the length of the diameter needed to wrap around circumference
 That's not a decomposition.
 If you don't remember $\pi$
 that's a harder problem than it was before.
 > ##### Bushels of wheat
 >
 > * Population of the world
 > * Number of bushels of wheat consumed per person per year
 > * Proportion of wheat wasted per year
 I might have included how much a bushel is,[^1]
 there's an order of magnitude right there.
 [^1]: $1~\text{US bushel} \equiv 9\frac{3571}{11550}~\text{US Gallons} \approx 9.3~\text{US Gallons}$
 The study suggests decomposition has no effect on estimate _confidence_
 ---which I'm tempted to believe because its funny
 and it tracks with my anecdotal experience---
 but I wonder if subjects using their own decompositions would present similarly.
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
 # 2026-01-28 09:51:08
 #occupational
 ### ConEst OneNote Template
 The ConEst OneNote template concept
 is flawed in ways that can not be addressed in OneNote,
 but it has good ideas, too;
 some I would not have thought could work so well.
 #### Takeoff Checklist
 At Ace my takeoff notes were entirely freeform,
 and I would have balked at the idea of using a standard checklist.
 Our projects were so varied
 that no list could be generic enough
 to approach universal applicability
 without being so shallow
 as to be useless to an experienced estimator.
 #### Estimator Initials
 Voluntary commitment to responsibility.
 An estimator adding their initials
 knows they are expected to be familiar with the scope.
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
 # 2026-01-28 10:02:??
 #topic/meta
 I'm tempted to replace \[\[daily-notes\]\] with timestamped notes
 from core plugins Unique Note Creator,
 however the utility of the calendar widget is hard to concede.
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
 # 2026-01-29 10:07:37
 #topic/estimating
 A peer's senior, expressing frustration,
 told them that it if they disagree with an instruction,
 they must have a reason,
 implying that the estimator's previous complaints,
 which were based on conflicting direction
 received from other estimators and seniors,
 were made _without_ reason.
 See [[realism-vs-instrumentalism]].
 The peer's senior is looking for a _realist_ objection to his methods,
 which an estimator without field experience (which the senior has)
 would be unlikely to be able to provide.
 Their dismissal of legitimate _instrumental_ complaints
 (misplaced effort, and deviation from more widely accepted standards)
 speaks to a fundamental misunderstanding of the purpose of estimating.
@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@
 # 2026-01-29 17:57:??
 #topic/finance
 ### Calculating Utility of Above-Minimum Mortgage Payment
 See [[2026-01-25#Calculating Monthly Principal & Interest Payment]].
 Homeowners are often advised to make elective mortgage payments
 to reduce the total interest paid on the loan,
 but an unrelated investment with a sufficient return
 could outweigh the reduced loss.
 Suppose you have a budget surplus of $E$ dollars
 and are deciding whether to make an elective payment on your mortgage
 or to invest in a promising opportunity.
 The return on electing to pay $E$ to the mortgage
 is the
 (i.e., interest that will no longer accrue)
 at the end of the loan is:
 $$
 R_{\text{mortgage}} = E(1+i)^{n}
 $$
 > [!info]- Explanation
 > This formula may seem suspiciously straightforward,
 > but suppose you did _not_ contribute $E$.
 > That portion of the principle would accrue interest
 > every month at rate $i$.
 > After $n$ months, the interest accrued by that portion is given by:
 >
 > $$
 > E(1+i)^{n}
 > $$
 If the same $E$ is invested elsewhere at monthly return $j$,
 its future value after $n$ months takes the same form:
 $$
 \text{FV}_{\text{investment}} = E(1+j)^{n}
 $$
 Therefore, $j$ must exceed $i$
 for the alternative investment to be preferable to elective payment.
 Note that $i$ and $j$ are adjusted rates,
 including respect for taxes and utility.
 On second thought, in a utility context,
 time preference could make $j$ preferable
 even when slightly lower.
 Short-term investments may be favored
 when liquidity is needed during the term,
 and tax deferred investments (IRA)
 are strongly favored over elective payment
 since interest is deductible
 (effective interest < nominal).
 ### Calculating Effect of Elective Payment on Term Length
 The monthly payment and interest rate are fixed,
 so the term length must decrease
 $$
 \begin{align}
 A &= P \cdot \frac{i(1+i)^n}{(1+i)^n-1} \\
 P &= A \cdot \frac{(1+i)^n-1}{i(1+i)^n} \\
 n &= \frac{\ln\left(\frac{A}{A-Pi}\right)}{\ln(1+i)} \\
 \end{align}
 $$
@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
 # 2026-01-30 08:44:29
 #topic/meta
 Follow-up to [[2026-01-28_10-02-00]].
 I really would like to implement timestamped notes,
 especially while it's still somewhat practical to split my old dailies.
 Only the lack of plugin support stops me.
@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
 # 2026-01-30 09:06:??
 #topic/meta
 I tried the Smart Connections community plugin.
 I can't imagine who it could be useful for.
 It seems to just identify large blocks of similar content,
 which means that every daily note is connected to every other.
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
 # 2026-01-30 13:42:??
 Often when I consider learning a new skill or improving an existing one,
 I conceive of a system that would _force_ me to improve,
 rather than forget about it (as I am won to do).
 See [[2026-01-19#Ulysses Pacts]].
 Conventional "home assistant" tech and doctrine
 caters to a class of people I find bizarre,
 those that would spend enormous sums of cash and effort
 just for the marginal benefit
 of not having to touch light switches as often as normal people.
 Instead they get to take out their phone,
 find and open the light switch app,
 and touch a virtual light switch
 because the routines they programmed were too conservative.
 Human or software,
 an assistant without agency
 _and the will to contradict you_
 is worthless.
 If the effort to _communicate_ your instructions
 exceeds the effort to perform them,
 you will always do the task yourself.
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
 # 2026-01-30 16:29:??
 #topic/math/statistics
 ### Laplace's Rule of Succession (LRS)
 > [!info]
 > Pierre-Simon Laplace
 If some event occurred $m$ times in $n$ observations,
 the probability the event will occur in the next observation
 is given by:
 $$
 \frac{1+m}{2+n}
 $$
 ### Rule of Five
 The probability that any given sample is above the median is 50%.
 The probability that the minimum and maximum values of $n$ samples
 _don't_ straddle the median is $(\frac{1}{2})^{n}$,
 equivalent to getting the same result on a flipped coin
 $n$ times in a row.
 There is a 93.75% chance that the median of a population
 is between the smallest and largest values
 in any random sample of five from that population.
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
 # 2026-01-30 18:33:??
 #topic/personal-productivity
 Why is it that I find it so easy, even compulsory,
 to clean my house while working from home,
 even after returning from work on-site?
 Why again does that feeling of necessity
 persist even into the evening,
 when I would normally be home anyway,
 but unable to summon the will to do anything
 about rapidly growing piles of dirty dishes and clothes?