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+---
+id: 2026-05-29T18:58:05-0400
+title: 2026-05-29 18:58:05
+tags: []
+daily: "[[2026-05-29]]"
+---
+# 2026-05-29 18:58:05
+
+I spend a lot of time thinking about [[construction-estimating]].
+
+**Despite how strongly I hold them,**
+**I can not clearly articulate my positions on estimating.**
+Addressing this issue was the original purpose of [[this-notebook]],
+more accurately it's ancestor, which I started 4 years ago.
+
+**I am not a strong speaker in general.**
+I ramble and get lost in tangents.
+When I'm asked a question
+I often forget it before I finish giving preemptive context for my response.
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+---
+id: 2026-05-30T17:17:11-0400
+title: 2026-05-30 17:17:11
+tags: []
+daily: "[[2026-05-30]]"
+---
+# 2026-05-30 17:17:11
+
+Valuation of goods and services
+as a function of supply and demand
+can not adequately explain the behavior of individuals.
+The concept of [[utility]], or **satisfaction**, can.
+
+It is satisfaction, not dollar value,
+which influences decision-making.
+losing \$100 is usually _more unsatisfying_
+than gaining \$100 is _satisfying_.
+
+***
+
+**[[risk]]** is the possibility of an unsatisfactory outcome.
+
+If you enter an agreement
+which will cost you \$100 to \$120
+\$20 is **at risk**.
+We don't say that \$120 is at risk,
+because at least \$100 will certainly be spent.
+
+***
+
+I have never installed a gutter.
+I have no basis for the cost of the materials
+nor the labor hours necessary.
+I can therefore never determine
+if the service is "worth" the cost quoted to me.
+
+I can, however, estimate how _satisfied_ I would be
+with gutters on my house,
+and how _unsatisfied_ paying the quote would make me.
+With this information I can determine
+if agreeing to the service is net positive:
+if I'd be more satisfied than I was before.
+
+Seeking multiple quotes would only tell me
+what other contractors are getting away with charging.
+
+***
+
+Milo has an apple tree in his backyard.
+Every August it gives him many buckets of apples,
+so many that he could never eat them all himself.
+
+Milo keeps track of how many apples his tree produces.
+Since the tree reached maturity
+Milo has has harvested around 300 apples per season,
+and always at least 200.
+He prefers to keep 100 apples for himself.
+The rest he gives to his neighbors, friends, and family.
+
+***
+
+YouTube video title: "Risk Management Explained in n Minutes Using Minecraft"
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+---
+id: 2026-05-30T20:18:01-0400
+title: 2026-05-30 20:18:01
+tags: []
+daily: "[[2026-05-30]]"
+---
+# 2026-05-30 20:18:01
+
+## "Record-Breaking Probability"
+
+[[how-to-measure-anything-in-project-management#Estimating Impact Under Uncertainty]]
+
+Hubbard doesn't explain the concept
+of "record-breaking probability" to my tastes.
+more to the point,
+he gives special attention to minimum and maximum
+when the probability that the next sample will have _any_ rank
+is given by 1/(n+1).