vault backup: 2026-01-25 23:46:04

This commit is contained in:
2026-01-25 23:46:04 -05:00
parent 4f09a0ac04
commit 847895f670
277 changed files with 34308 additions and 92 deletions
+5
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@@ -19,6 +19,11 @@
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+2 -1
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@@ -21,5 +21,6 @@
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+87
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+1 -1
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@@ -112,7 +112,7 @@
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+2 -1
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@@ -23,6 +23,7 @@
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+1
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@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete
dg-publish: true
---
# 13723 Feather Sound Circle East #210
+5 -2
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@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
---
id: 2025-07-18_estimating-isnt-engineering
id: 2025-07-18
aliases: []
title: 2025-07-18
tags:
@@ -9,10 +9,13 @@ tags:
- topic/construction
- topic/estimating
- type/anecdote
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-07-18
## 2025-07-18 --- "Estimating Isn't Engineering"
## 2025-07-18 ??:??
### Estimating Isn't Engineering
#topic/estimating
+3 -2
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@@ -1,12 +1,13 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: "2025-10-20"
title: 2025-10-20
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/daily
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-10-20
@@ -14,4 +15,4 @@ tags:
"Rogue AI" is a common trope,
but the reality of hallucination
can be far more horrifying.
can be far more horrifying.
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@@ -1,19 +1,20 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-10-26
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- original-format/typewritten-print
- type/daily
- status/complete
title: 2025-10-26
- type/daily
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-10-26
## 2025-10-26 18:36 --- Sunday evening
#topic/hobbies/reading
#topic/hobbies/reading
I read Harlan Ellison's _I Have No Mouth, and I Must Scream_ this morning.
It took me about two hours. What may be curious about that is the story is
+5 -4
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@@ -1,19 +1,20 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-10-31
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- original-format/typewritten-print
- type/daily
- status/complete
title: 2025-10-31
- type/daily
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-10-31
## 2025-10-31 18:26 --- Friday Evening
#topic/hobbies/birding
#topic/hobbies/birding
This morning as I was leaving for work I saw a massive congregation
of all the walky water birds I love so much. A hundred and more, milling about
@@ -41,7 +42,7 @@ Today was a good day---I've been at this for a while, one second...
## 2025-10-31 19:48 --- Late Friday Evening, Halloween btw
#topic/hobbies/birding
#topic/hobbies/birding
Today was a good day. If I could see so many gorgeous creatures every day
as I have this one I might never shed another tear. I love birds.
+3 -2
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@@ -1,13 +1,14 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-11-01
tags:
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title: 2025-11-01
- type/daily
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-11-01
+1
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@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ tags:
- destiny/permanent
- status/complete
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dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-11-04
+3 -2
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@@ -1,13 +1,14 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-11-05
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- original-format/typewritten-print
- type/daily
- status/complete
title: 2025-11-05
- type/daily
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-11-05
+3 -2
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@@ -1,13 +1,14 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-11-06
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- original-format/digital-text
- type/daily
- status/complete
title: 2025-11-06
- type/daily
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-11-06
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@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-11-10
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
@@ -8,7 +9,7 @@ tags:
- original-format/typewritten-print
- status/complete
- type/daily
title: 2025-11-10
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-11-10
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@@ -1,18 +1,19 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-11-11
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/complete
- type/daily
title: 2025-11-11
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-11-11
## 2025-11-11 06:06 --- Tuesday Morning, Before Work
#topic/estimating #original-format/typewritten-print
#topic/estimating #original-format/typewritten-print
One of the most appealing aspects of estimating
to me is the dynamic we have with our employers.
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@@ -1,12 +1,13 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-11-13
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/complete
- type/daily
title: 2025-11-13
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-11-13
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@@ -1,12 +1,13 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-11-14
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
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title: 2025-11-14
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-11-14
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@@ -1,12 +1,13 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-11-16
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
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title: 2025-11-16
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-11-16
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@@ -1,12 +1,13 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-11-18
tags:
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dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-11-18
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@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ tags:
- status/draft
- type/daily
title: 2025-11-20
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-11-20
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@@ -1,12 +1,13 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-11-21
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/daily
title: 2025-11-21
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-11-21
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---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-12-02
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/daily
title: 2025-12-02
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-12-02
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@@ -1,12 +1,13 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-12-03
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/daily
title: 2025-12-03
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-12-03
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@@ -1,18 +1,19 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-12-04
tags:
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dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-12-04
## 2025-12-04 09:51
#topic/automation
#topic/automation
* [ ] TODO: Build test case estimating helper html app 2026-12-04
@@ -34,4 +35,4 @@ A good test case would be a simple 3 variable equation solver.
speed
distance
time
time
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@@ -1,15 +1,16 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-12-05
tags:
- authorship/original
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- status/draft
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title: ""
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-12-05
## 2025-12-05 10:41
[[pdi-breakdowns#Area: Office Space]]
[[pdi-breakdowns#Area: Office Space]]
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@@ -1,15 +1,16 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-12-06
tags:
- authorship/original
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- type/daily
title: 2025-12-06
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-12-06
## 2025-12-06 13:13
[[intellectual-capital]]
[[intellectual-capital]]
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@@ -1,15 +1,16 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-12-08
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/daily
title: 2025-12-08
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-12-08
## 2025-12-08 11:03
[[ambiguity-in-construction-estimating]]
[[ambiguity-in-construction-estimating]]
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# 2025-12-09
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# 2025-12-10
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# 2025-12-12
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---
id:
aliases: []
title: "2025-12-13"
title: 2025-12-13
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/daily
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-12-13
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# 2025-12-14
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# 2025-12-16
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# 2025-12-17
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---
id:
aliases: []
title: "2025-12-18"
title: 2025-12-18
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/daily
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-12-18
@@ -63,4 +64,4 @@ and will be signing a contract with Trimble in late January.
## 2025-12-18 15:30
[Kip (unit) - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kip_\(unit\))
[Construction Cost Estimating](https://www.quantity-takeoff.com/index.htm)
[Construction Cost Estimating](https://www.quantity-takeoff.com/index.htm)
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# 2025-12-19
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# 2025-12-20
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---
id:
aliases: []
title: "2025-12-22"
title: 2025-12-22
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/daily
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-12-22
## 2025-12-22 08:51
[[music-theory]]
[[music-theory]]
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---
id:
aliases: []
title: "2025-12-30"
title: 2025-12-30
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/daily
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-12-30
@@ -18,4 +19,4 @@ tags:
3.ApplyThatSequence([-1,0,1,2,3])
# returns [2,2,3,5,8]
```
```
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# 2026-01-01
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# 2026-01-02
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# 2026-01-04
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# 2026-01-05
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# 2026-01-06
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# 2026-01-07
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# 2026-01-08
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---
id:
aliases: []
title: "2026-01-09"
title: 2026-01-09
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/daily
dg-publish: true
---
# 2026-01-09
@@ -59,9 +60,11 @@ High Rise .110--.120 hr/sqft
## 2026-01-09 12:00
$$
\frac{146097}{400} = 365.2425~\text{Days Per Year}
\frac{20871}{400} = 52.1775~\text{Weeks Per Year}
\begin{gather*}
\frac{146097}{400} = 365.2425~\text{Days Per Year} \
\frac{20871}{400} = 52.1775~\text{Weeks Per Year} \
\frac{6957}{1600} = 4.348125~\text{Weeks Per Month}
\end{gather*}
$$
$$
@@ -108,4 +111,4 @@ Attributed to William of Ockham, 14th-century English philosopher and theologian
> [!quote] [[klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models#4.2 The Role of Parameters]]
> The principle of parsimony states that the simplest model
> that adequately reflects reality should be used.
> that adequately reflects reality should be used.
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---
id:
aliases: []
title: "2026-01-10"
title: 2026-01-10
tags:
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- status/draft
- type/daily
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---
# 2026-01-10
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# 2026-01-11
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# 2026-01-12
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# 2026-01-13
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# 2026-01-14
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id:
aliases: []
title: "2026-01-15"
title: 2026-01-15
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- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
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# 2026-01-15
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# 2026-01-19
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# 2026-01-20
@@ -34,4 +35,4 @@ could be easily replaced with documents like this one.
Jfarrari The Unknowing (Acoustic)
[[music-analysis]]
[[music-analysis]]
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# 2026-01-22
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# 2026-01-23
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---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2026-01-25
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/daily
dg-publish: true
---
# 2026-01-25
## 2026-01-25 18:46
### Calculating Monthly Principal & Interest Payment
For a **fixed-rate, fully-amortizing mortgage**,
the monthly payment is computed using the **standard amortization formula**:
#### Standard Amortization Formula
$$
A = P \cdot \frac{i(1+i)^n}{(1+i)^n-1}
$$
Where:
* $A$ = periodic payment amount
* $P$ = amount of principal, net of initial payments
* $i$ = periodic interest rate
* $n$ = total number of payments
> [!info]
> $A$ is constant over the term,
> the interest portion decreases while the principal portion increases.
#### Example
For a 30-year mortgage of $268,000 at 5.75% annual interest:
$$
\begin{align*}
P &= 268000
i &= \frac{0.0575}{12} = 0.004791\bar{6} \\
n &= 30 \cdot 12 = 360
\end{align*}
$$
The monthly payment amount $A$ is given by:
$$
\begin{align*}
A &= 268000 \cdot \frac{0.004791\bar{6} \cdot (1+ 0.004791\bar{6})^{360}}{(1+ 0.004791\bar{6})^{360} - 1} \\
A &\approx 1563.98
\end{align*}
$$
### Calculating Annual Percentage Rate (APR)
$$
\text{APR} = \frac{\frac{\text{Interest} + \text{Fees}}{\text{Principle}}}{\text{Term Years}}
$$
## 2026-01-25 21:02
[[the-failure-of-risk-management]]
If I have a general complaint about [[hubbard_2020_failure]] it's this:
Hubbard fails to recognize logical parallels between his different arguments,
so to a critical reader they appear contradictory:
In [[hubbard_2020_failure#Break It Down, Then Do the Math]]
Hubbard introduces decomposition as a method for reducing error in estimates,
Providing Fermi's "piano tuners in Chicago" problem as an example,
without acknowledging that _Fermi_ supplied the decomposition.
Hubbard also references [[macgregor_1994_judgemental-decomposition]]
which is a similar case.
Neither of these examples suggest that decomposition is a magic bullet,
or even that a layman's decomposition wouldn't be worse than nothing.
Despite this, Hubbard ends the section without qualifier:
"Clearly, decomposition helps estimates."
This section comes only pages after
[[hubbard_2020_failure#The Measurement Inversion]]
in which Hubbard warns against seeking detail for the sake of it.
See also [[the-failure-of-risk-management#_Exsupero Ursus_]].
## 2026-01-25 22:59
[[macgregor_1994_judgemental-decomposition]]
I really hate this study.
I may be out of my league,
but it seems wrong to draw conclusions about decomposition as a method
when the work was done by the researchers,
especially when some of their decompositions really suck.
> ##### Circumference of 50¢ coin
>
> * Diameter in inches of a 50¢ coin
> * Number of pieces of string the length of the diameter needed to wrap around circumference
That's not a decomposition.
If you don't remember $\pi$
that's a harder problem than it was before.
> ##### Bushels of wheat
>
> * Population of the world
> * Number of bushels of wheat consumed per person per year
> * Proportion of wheat wasted per year
I might have included how much a bushel is,[^1]
there's an order of magnitude right there.
[^1]: $1~\text{US bushel} \equiv 9\frac{3571}{11550}~\text{US Gallons} \approx 9.3~\text{US Gallons}$
The study suggests decomposition has no effect on estimate confidence
---which I'm tempted to believe because its funny
and it tracks with my anecdotal experience---
but I wonder if subjects using their own decompositions would present similarly.
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# 2026
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- status/incomplete
- topic/meta
- type/encyclopedia
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---
# zmVault
> [!info]
> This note is on the meta-formatting of this repository.
> For contents, prose conventions, etc. see [[this-notebook]].
This note concerns the meta-formatting of this repository.
For contents, prose conventions, etc. see [[this-notebook]].
## Syntax
Notes are written in [Obsidian-flavored markdown](https://help.obsidian.md/),
which is partially reimplemented by [Markdown Oxide](https://oxide.md/)
for use in editors other than Obsidian.
I primarily use [[obsidian|Obsidian]] for both reading and writing,
so notes are written in [Obsidian-flavored markdown](https://help.obsidian.md/),
which is partially reimplemented by [Foam](https://foamnotes.com/) for Visual Studio Code
and [Markdown Oxide](https://oxide.md/) for vim, neovim, and others.
For compatibility,
novel syntax implemented by Obsidian plugins should be avoided.
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# TODO
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title: Accubid Setup
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---
# Accubid Setup
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- topic/estimating
- topic/risk
- type/cross-topic
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---
# Actuarial Science for Construction Estimating
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# Actuarial Science
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# AI in Estimating
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# Alternating Current
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# Ambiguity in Construction Estimating
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# Ambiguity
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# Assembly Objects
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# Assembly Philosophy
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# Auction Theory
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title: Automating Estimating Project Creation
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# Automating Estimating Project Creation
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# Automating PDF Annotation
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- topic/music/banjo
- type/encyclopedia
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# Banjo Tablatures
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# Banjo
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# Modeling Bid Prices Under Intrinsic Cost Uncertainty
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# Bid Process Strategy
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title: Birds I've Seen Around Here
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# Birds I've Seen Around Here
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title: BPM Award Analysis
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# BPM Award Analysis
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# Breakdown Objects
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# Building Area Classification
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# Carbon Monoxide Detection Takeoff
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---
id:
aliases: []
title: Complaints
tags:
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# Complaints
Where do you get the nerve, buddy?
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title: Conductor Sizing
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# Conductor Sizing
@@ -160,8 +161,9 @@ $$
## Motors
1 electric horsepower = 746 watts
$$
1~\text{electric horsepower} \equiv 746~\text{watts}
$$
full-load current (FLC) / full-load amperes (FLA)
minimum circuit ampacity (MCA)
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# Conduit Sizing
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title: ConEst Training Agenda
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# ConEst Training Agenda
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# Consolidate Electrical Info
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# Consolidate Estimating Thoughts
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# Construction Estimating Software
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- topic/estimating
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# _Construction Estimating Using Excel_
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# Construction Estimating
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# Construction Methods
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# Converting Documents to Markdown
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title: Convex Hull
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# Convex Hull
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# The Cruel Mother (Traditional)
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title: Daily Notes
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# Daily Notes

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