vault backup: 2026-02-25 08:15:32

2026-02-25 08:15:32 -05:00
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+# 2026-01-09 14:45:??
+
+[[bid-price-modeling]]
+
+Suppose a true cost model,
+accounting for all relevant information available at time $t$.
+
+$C(t)$ returns a distribution whose [scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale_parameter)
+decreases with $t$, and $C(0)$ maps to a single value.
+$t>0$ is time until the final payment.
+
+> ![250](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/Log-normal-pdfs.png/960px-Log-normal-pdfs.png)
+>
+> Figure: lognormal distributions with the same [location](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Location_parameter)
+> varied by [scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale_parameter).