vault backup: 2026-02-18 17:27:27
This commit is contained in:
Vendored
+40
-12
@@ -8,31 +8,59 @@
|
||||
"collapse-color-groups": false,
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"colorGroups": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"query": "tag:#occupational/takeoff ",
|
||||
"query": "tag:#type/periodic/timestamped ",
|
||||
"color": {
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"a": 1,
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"rgb": 14701138
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"rgb": 14523974
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}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"query": "tag:#topic/construction ",
|
||||
"query": "tag:#type/periodic/daily ",
|
||||
"color": {
|
||||
"a": 1,
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"rgb": 11657298
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"rgb": 12266267
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}
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},
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||||
{
|
||||
"query": "tag:#type/task",
|
||||
"query": "tag:#occupational ",
|
||||
"color": {
|
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"a": 1,
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"rgb": 5431473
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"rgb": 11392604
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}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"query": "tag:#topic/hobbies",
|
||||
"query": "tag:#topic/estimating ",
|
||||
"color": {
|
||||
"a": 1,
|
||||
"rgb": 14701254
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"rgb": 6084302
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}
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},
|
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{
|
||||
"query": "tag:#topic/meta ",
|
||||
"color": {
|
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"a": 1,
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"rgb": 11492566
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}
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},
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{
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"query": "tag:#type/media ",
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"color": {
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"a": 1,
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"rgb": 10307734
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}
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},
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{
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||||
"query": "tag:#topic/construction/electrical ",
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"color": {
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"a": 1,
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"rgb": 13683594
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}
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||||
},
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{
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"query": "tag:#topic/hobbies ",
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"color": {
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"a": 1,
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"rgb": 7060889
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}
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}
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],
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@@ -42,10 +70,10 @@
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||||
"nodeSizeMultiplier": 1,
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||||
"lineSizeMultiplier": 1,
|
||||
"collapse-forces": false,
|
||||
"centerStrength": 0.848958333333333,
|
||||
"repelStrength": 20,
|
||||
"centerStrength": 0.5703125,
|
||||
"repelStrength": 13.3854166666667,
|
||||
"linkStrength": 1,
|
||||
"linkDistance": 307,
|
||||
"scale": 0.1845485538360368,
|
||||
"linkDistance": 250,
|
||||
"scale": 0.13163395511370124,
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||||
"close": false
|
||||
}
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||||
+8
-8
@@ -5,8 +5,6 @@ title: 2025-11-10
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||||
tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- original-format/digital-text
|
||||
- original-format/typewritten-print
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||||
- status/complete
|
||||
- type/periodic/daily
|
||||
dg-publish: true
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||||
@@ -15,6 +13,8 @@ dg-publish: true
|
||||
|
||||
## 2025-11-10 06:53 --- Monday Morning Before Work
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|
||||
#original-format/typewritten-print #topic/mindfulness
|
||||
|
||||
I've been trying to be alone with my thoughts more
|
||||
recently. It's almost bizarre how working in silence
|
||||
for an hour makes the thought of music or an audiobook
|
||||
@@ -43,7 +43,7 @@ like music and style and... birdwatching...
|
||||
|
||||
## 2025-11-10 10:40
|
||||
|
||||
#topic/estimating #occupational
|
||||
#topic/estimating #occupational #original-format/digital-text
|
||||
|
||||
A significant change from Ace to PDI in my mentality during takeoff
|
||||
is that I now tend to expect that (within reason)
|
||||
@@ -52,7 +52,7 @@ not holes in cost coverage.
|
||||
|
||||
## 2025-11-10 11:14
|
||||
|
||||
#occupational/takeoff
|
||||
#occupational/takeoff #original-format/digital-text
|
||||
|
||||
I was updating my notes,
|
||||
filling in gaps in scripts based on Joel's,
|
||||
@@ -72,10 +72,10 @@ when I noticed a strange paragraph:
|
||||
> > Types NM and NMC cables shall not be permitted as follows:
|
||||
> >
|
||||
> > 1. In any dwelling or structure not specifically
|
||||
> > permitted in 334.10(1), (2), (3)
|
||||
> > permitted in 334.10(1), (2), (3)
|
||||
> >
|
||||
> > 2. ==Exposed in dropped or suspended ceilings==
|
||||
> > in other than one- and two-family and multifamily dwellings
|
||||
> > in other than one- and two-family and multifamily dwellings
|
||||
|
||||
This analysis of 334.12(A)(2) is flawed.
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -104,7 +104,7 @@ to be used whole-cloth on all estimates.
|
||||
|
||||
### "Feeder"
|
||||
|
||||
#topic/construction/electrical
|
||||
#topic/construction/electrical #original-format/digital-text
|
||||
|
||||
The NEC definition of feeder is quite strict.
|
||||
I'm certain I misuse it frequently.
|
||||
@@ -117,7 +117,7 @@ those are [[nfpa-70_100_definitions#Branch Circuit.|branch circuit]] conductors.
|
||||
|
||||
## 2025-11-10 20:00 --- Monday Evening, Before Bed
|
||||
|
||||
#topic/estimating #occupational
|
||||
#topic/estimating #occupational #original-format/typewritten-print
|
||||
|
||||
Today while (a peer) and I were walking, he asked
|
||||
me what I thought of his qualities as an estimator.
|
||||
|
||||
+1
-1
@@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ desirable position.
|
||||
|
||||
## 2025-11-11 14:41
|
||||
|
||||
#topic/estimating #topic/transparency
|
||||
#topic/estimating #topic/transparency #original-format/digital-text
|
||||
|
||||
I just saw a post on a construction estimators forum
|
||||
from a user lamenting that their coworkers and customers
|
||||
|
||||
+1
-1
@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ dg-publish: true
|
||||
|
||||
## 2025-11-14 13:41
|
||||
|
||||
#topic/meta #topic/music/banjo #topic/hobbies/shorthand
|
||||
#topic/meta #topic/hobbies/music/banjo #topic/hobbies/shorthand
|
||||
|
||||
I added two new long term tasks to the notebook.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
+5
-1
@@ -44,7 +44,11 @@ Fire stopping budget = $25-35 per Unit.
|
||||
|
||||
Robotic Total Station hours: match Structural Foreman.
|
||||
|
||||
Equipment Cost $\approx$ 1% for contracts 5-15 million dollars.
|
||||
For contracts 5--15 million dollars:
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
\text{Equipment Cost} \approx 1\%
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
Mid Atlantic: 1 trip per month
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
+1
-1
@@ -23,4 +23,4 @@ MC multi-circuit homeruns have makeup included
|
||||
"PA Historicals" --- Project Accounting Historicals
|
||||
|
||||
.136 General Liability & Worker's Compensation
|
||||
.066 General Liability Only
|
||||
.066 General Liability Only
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -10,5 +10,3 @@ tags:
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
---
|
||||
# 2025-11-21
|
||||
|
||||
[[2025-11-21_10-11-00]]
|
||||
@@ -11,6 +11,8 @@ tags:
|
||||
---
|
||||
# 2025-11-21 10:11:??
|
||||
|
||||
#topic/organization
|
||||
|
||||
> [!quote] [ELECTRI's Industry Benchmarking Tool - ELECTRI International](https://www.electri.org/research-overview/electris-industry-benchmarking-tool/)
|
||||
> ### Hours Burned vs. Hours Earned
|
||||
>
|
||||
|
||||
+7
-4
@@ -21,12 +21,14 @@ There is a distinct difference between _excluding_ and _ignoring_ requirements.
|
||||
|
||||
If, before award, you communicate to the customer
|
||||
that your cost does not include respect for a requirement,
|
||||
_and_ they understand the implications of the omission,
|
||||
_and they understand the implications of the omission,_
|
||||
you have _excluded_ that requirement.
|
||||
|
||||
If your cost does not include respect for a requirement,
|
||||
but you have not communicated the omission to the customer
|
||||
_and_ made a reasonable effort to inform them of the implications of its omission
|
||||
but you have not
|
||||
(1) communicated the omission to the customer, _and_
|
||||
(2) made a reasonable effort to inform the customer
|
||||
of the implications of the requirement's omission,
|
||||
you are _ignoring_ that requirement.
|
||||
|
||||
_Excluding_ requirements is common practice.
|
||||
@@ -35,7 +37,8 @@ _Ignoring_ requirements is unprofessional and irresponsible.
|
||||
Sometimes requirements are ignored out of convenience.
|
||||
If an estimator is confident a requirement won't be enforced,
|
||||
they may ignore it to lower the estimate and save time in closeout.
|
||||
More ethical estimators may have no desire to do so,
|
||||
|
||||
More ethical estimators may have no desire to ignore requirements,
|
||||
but may nonetheless feel obligated to.
|
||||
If a contractor is confident their competitors will ignore a requirement,
|
||||
they may feel that the moral high road offers two losing options:
|
||||
|
||||
+4
-4
@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ dg-publish: true
|
||||
|
||||
#topic/automation
|
||||
|
||||
* [ ] TODO: Build test case estimating helper html app ➕ 2026-12-04
|
||||
* [x] TODO: Build test case estimating helper html app ➕ 2026-12-04
|
||||
|
||||
It may be possible
|
||||
to replicate the behavior of my takeoff workbooks
|
||||
@@ -33,6 +33,6 @@ This would be preferable since it would allow
|
||||
|
||||
A good test case would be a simple 3 variable equation solver.
|
||||
|
||||
speed
|
||||
distance
|
||||
time
|
||||
* speed
|
||||
* distance
|
||||
* time
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -1,16 +0,0 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
id:
|
||||
aliases: []
|
||||
title: 2025-12-05
|
||||
tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/periodic/daily
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
---
|
||||
# 2025-12-05
|
||||
|
||||
## 2025-12-05 10:41
|
||||
|
||||
[[pdi-breakdowns#Area: Office Space]]
|
||||
@@ -1,16 +0,0 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
id:
|
||||
aliases: []
|
||||
title: 2025-12-06
|
||||
tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/periodic/daily
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
---
|
||||
# 2025-12-06
|
||||
|
||||
## 2025-12-06 13:13
|
||||
|
||||
[[intellectual-capital]]
|
||||
@@ -1,16 +0,0 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
id:
|
||||
aliases: []
|
||||
title: 2025-12-08
|
||||
tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/periodic/daily
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
---
|
||||
# 2025-12-08
|
||||
|
||||
## 2025-12-08 11:03
|
||||
|
||||
[[ambiguity-in-construction-estimating]]
|
||||
+4
-2
@@ -33,8 +33,10 @@ neither are readily applicable to building construction.
|
||||
Of the two, pure math would be be preferred---
|
||||
being generally more rigorous---
|
||||
but the first bin far outweighs the second.
|
||||
See the difference in content from [geostatistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geostatistics)
|
||||
to the conceivably far more broad [spatial statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spatial_statistics).
|
||||
See the difference in content from
|
||||
[geostatistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geostatistics)
|
||||
to the conceivably far more broad
|
||||
[spatial statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spatial_statistics).
|
||||
|
||||
> [!quote] [Geographic data and information](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographic_data_and_information)
|
||||
> **Spatial data** or **spatial information** is broader class of data
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -1,16 +0,0 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
id:
|
||||
aliases: []
|
||||
title: 2025-12-22
|
||||
tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/periodic/daily
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
---
|
||||
# 2025-12-22
|
||||
|
||||
## 2025-12-22 08:51
|
||||
|
||||
[[music-theory]]
|
||||
+22
-10
@@ -15,9 +15,14 @@ dg-publish: true
|
||||
|
||||
### _Let Them Theory_ Theory
|
||||
|
||||
1. Person habitually engages in toxic behavior which they consciously believe to be benevolent
|
||||
2. Person recognizes that when they stop engaging in said toxic behavior, others appreciate it
|
||||
3. Person feels that they are doing a service by not engaging in said toxic behavior
|
||||
1. Person habitually engages in toxic behavior
|
||||
which they consciously believe to be benevolent
|
||||
|
||||
2. Person recognizes that when they stop engaging in said toxic behavior,
|
||||
others appreciate it
|
||||
|
||||
3. Person feels that they are doing a service
|
||||
by not engaging in said toxic behavior
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-06 10:00
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -25,7 +30,7 @@ Paraphrased Teams conversation with a peer
|
||||
about [[distribution-designations#Terminations]].
|
||||
Peer's messages are in block quotes.
|
||||
|
||||
### Content
|
||||
***
|
||||
|
||||
> Good morning!
|
||||
> Do you add branch terminations to panelboards?
|
||||
@@ -68,11 +73,15 @@ Morning! Yes to the first question, ? to the second
|
||||
> Ah, so you just chuck in a lot # of terms per board and call it good?
|
||||
|
||||
Essentially.
|
||||
Ben's direction was to pick a schedule on the upper end of terms for each size panel to be representative of the rest.
|
||||
Ben's direction was to pick a schedule
|
||||
on the upper end of terms for each size panel
|
||||
to be representative of the rest.
|
||||
At my old place I would have made a designation for each panel,
|
||||
I'm not upset to leave that behind.
|
||||
I see no reason you couldn't just make each size once and keep it in a temp job.
|
||||
I would, but I usually extract the schedules anyway so I just use the actual average.
|
||||
I see no reason you couldn't just make each size once
|
||||
and keep it in a temp job.
|
||||
I would, but I usually extract the schedules anyway
|
||||
so I just use the actual average.
|
||||
|
||||
> Thank you for that.
|
||||
> Joel wagged his finger at me about missing terms this morning---
|
||||
@@ -87,7 +96,8 @@ the feeder assemblies have both sides,
|
||||
the branch assemblies don't have either,
|
||||
that's why he got you, I think.
|
||||
|
||||
I don't think my way is best unless you already have all the circuits in a big table for other reasons.
|
||||
I don't think my way is best
|
||||
unless you already have all the circuits in a big table for other reasons.
|
||||
Lot of effort for a marginal increase in certainty above a heuristic like Ben's.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm working on a job Noah started now,
|
||||
@@ -95,7 +105,8 @@ he made certain panels separate from what I assume is the average
|
||||
and labeled them with the name of the panel.
|
||||
If I had a job where some were significantly more full than others
|
||||
I _might_ do something similar,
|
||||
but I'd probably name them "... 1-Section, ~25% Fill"/"... 1-Section, ~75% Fill" instead.
|
||||
but I'd probably name them
|
||||
"... 1-Section, ~25% Fill"/"... 1-Section, ~75% Fill" instead.
|
||||
But that's a lot of mental overhead.
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-06 10:57
|
||||
@@ -111,4 +122,5 @@ Out of contract building area for renovations?
|
||||
Maybe the sum of in-contract building area and other areas prorated somehow.
|
||||
|
||||
Seems imminently gameable.
|
||||
See [[incentives#Perverse Incentive]] and [[estimating-culture#Incentives]].
|
||||
See [[incentives#Perverse Incentive]]
|
||||
and [[estimating-culture#Incentives]].
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -119,6 +119,8 @@ because otherwise it would be necessary to have double the assemblies,
|
||||
or to expect estimators to substitute each size of wire
|
||||
everywhere bare was necessary.
|
||||
|
||||
See [[realism-vs-instrumentalism]].
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-07 16:03
|
||||
|
||||
#occupational #topic/estimating #topic/organization
|
||||
|
||||
+1
-1
@@ -88,7 +88,7 @@ $C(t)$ returns a distribution whose [scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale_
|
||||
decreases with $t$, and $C(0)$ maps to a single value.
|
||||
$t>0$ is time until the final payment.
|
||||
|
||||
> 
|
||||
> 
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Figure: lognormal distributions with the same [location](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Location_parameter)
|
||||
> varied by [scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale_parameter).
|
||||
|
||||
+9
-7
@@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ then there are few who in the world who couldn't,
|
||||
given infinite time for a single bid.
|
||||
The _true_ value of an estimator, then,
|
||||
is in their ability to model project cost _efficiently_, that is,
|
||||
to achieve acceptable accuracy and precision as quickly as possible,---
|
||||
to achieve _acceptable_ accuracy and precision as quickly as possible,---
|
||||
much as the engineer's is in building a bridge that _meets_ the requirements
|
||||
as cheaply as possible.
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -53,9 +53,10 @@ it is not cost-effective[^1] to allow it to take four.[^2]
|
||||
|
||||
[^1]: "Cost" referring both to estimator salaries and the opportunity cost of declined bids.
|
||||
|
||||
[^2]: Supposing a contractor maintained a modern portfolio theory styled record
|
||||
of estimates including pending bids, and projects ongoing and completed,
|
||||
with confidence estimates uncorrupted by [[estimating-culture#Incentives|perverse incentives]],
|
||||
[^2]: Supposing a contractor maintained a modern portfolio theory styled record of estimates
|
||||
including pending bids, and projects ongoing and completed
|
||||
(each with confidence estimates),
|
||||
uncorrupted by [[estimating-culture#Incentives|perverse incentives]],
|
||||
they may have reasonable basis to set sliding standards for estimate precision
|
||||
to be specifically determined at consideration of the opportunity for bid
|
||||
according to current climate (i.e. their transient risk appetite).
|
||||
@@ -63,6 +64,7 @@ it is not cost-effective[^1] to allow it to take four.[^2]
|
||||
No contractor is doing that, so they lack a competent measure of risk tolerance
|
||||
besides continuing to tolerate what they have historically.
|
||||
|
||||
Objectionable as it is,
|
||||
it is to be expected that estimators will use all time allowed them
|
||||
when the standards for _acceptability_ are inadequately defined.
|
||||
> [!important]
|
||||
> Objectionable as it is,
|
||||
> it is to be expected that estimators will use all time allowed them
|
||||
> when the standards for _acceptability_ are inadequately defined.
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@ dg-publish: true
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-12 10:00
|
||||
|
||||
#occupational
|
||||
|
||||
### ECH3 Executed Contract Revision WBS
|
||||
|
||||
For Executed Contract Revisions, Bid GP% must be maintained.
|
||||
@@ -21,6 +23,8 @@ in order to compensate for an increase in permit fee coverage.
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-12 10:42
|
||||
|
||||
#occupational
|
||||
|
||||
### Woodbrook Executed Contract Revision Takeoff Check
|
||||
|
||||
#### Unit Dishwasher/Disposal
|
||||
@@ -33,6 +37,8 @@ According to Joel this takeoff is correct for the scenario.
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-12 12:23
|
||||
|
||||
#occupational
|
||||
|
||||
Travelling with Brian Smarslok and Joel Jansen on [[2026-01-15]]
|
||||
to visit [[#Woodbury Heights|an awarded project]] in New Jersey.
|
||||
Flying from TPA to PHL, departure @ 7:00AM.
|
||||
@@ -92,11 +98,15 @@ can be blamed for any significant portion of variance that extreme.
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-12 13:02
|
||||
|
||||
#topic/construction
|
||||
|
||||
**Dry utilities:** utilities other than "wet" utilities (water, sewer, stormwater),
|
||||
namely power, data, and natural gas.
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-12 13:02
|
||||
|
||||
#occupational
|
||||
|
||||
Joel attributes the [[#GP Variance|apparent variance]] to
|
||||
1. missed Polaris lugs for feeders for one building,
|
||||
2. insufficient budget for equipment rental, and
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@ dg-publish: true
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-13 11:28
|
||||
|
||||
#occupational
|
||||
|
||||
### 2100 Crystal Drive ConEst Manager Review
|
||||
|
||||
#### Josh's Review Order
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@ dg-publish: true
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-14 13:27
|
||||
|
||||
#occupational
|
||||
|
||||
Follow-up to [[2026-01-13#Lighting Control]]
|
||||
|
||||
Conversation between Joel Jansen and Christian Pereiro
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -21,7 +21,3 @@ Left Apartment at 05:30, at terminal around 06:10.
|
||||
|
||||
[[2025-11-13#2025-11-13 08:19]]
|
||||
I spoke to a peer about this yesterday.
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-15 08:18
|
||||
|
||||
[[2025-12-03#Excluding Vs. Ignoring Project Requirements|Excluding Vs. Ignoring Project Requirements]]
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -26,6 +26,8 @@ for the sort of formatting I've been doing recently.
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-19 12:32
|
||||
|
||||
#topic/construction #topic/estimating
|
||||
|
||||
Real example of [[location-vs-scope]]:
|
||||
|
||||
450-460 James Robertson Parkway Phase II (fka James Roberston Pkwy Mixed Use Development)
|
||||
|
||||
+7
-1
@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@ dg-publish: true
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-22 09:55
|
||||
|
||||
#occupational
|
||||
|
||||
The lighting drawings for
|
||||
450-460 James Robertson Parkway Phase II
|
||||
(fka James Roberston Pkwy Mixed Use Development)
|
||||
@@ -25,6 +27,8 @@ is the relevant section.
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-22 11:58
|
||||
|
||||
#occupational
|
||||
|
||||
### 463 Davison Contract Dates
|
||||
|
||||
[[463-davison-ave-ne]]
|
||||
@@ -41,6 +45,8 @@ Closing: [[2026-03-04]]
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-22 14:56
|
||||
|
||||
#topic/estimating
|
||||
|
||||
### Accurate Budget Vs. Accurate BOM
|
||||
|
||||
#### Quote
|
||||
@@ -64,7 +70,7 @@ The review and adjustment process
|
||||
is based on standard practice,
|
||||
so deviations may have unpredictable effects.
|
||||
|
||||
Our assemblies do not include screws
|
||||
Our assemblies do not include screws.
|
||||
It would be more accurate to the BOM to add them,
|
||||
but we budget for that cost in the summary,
|
||||
so to do so would be double dipping.
|
||||
|
||||
+1
-1
@@ -120,7 +120,7 @@ there's an order of magnitude right there.
|
||||
|
||||
[^1]: $1~\text{US bushel} \equiv 9\frac{3571}{11550}~\text{US Gallons} \approx 9.3~\text{US Gallons}$
|
||||
|
||||
The study suggests decomposition has no effect on estimate confidence
|
||||
The study suggests decomposition has no effect on estimate _confidence_
|
||||
---which I'm tempted to believe because its funny
|
||||
and it tracks with my anecdotal experience---
|
||||
but I wonder if subjects using their own decompositions would present similarly.
|
||||
|
||||
+7
-1
@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@ dg-publish: true
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-29 10:07
|
||||
|
||||
#topic/estimating
|
||||
|
||||
A peer's senior, expressing frustration,
|
||||
told them that it if they disagree with an instruction,
|
||||
they must have a reason,
|
||||
@@ -32,6 +34,8 @@ speaks to a fundamental misunderstanding of the purpose of estimating.
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-29 17:57
|
||||
|
||||
#topic/finance
|
||||
|
||||
### Calculating Utility of Above-Minimum Mortgage Payment
|
||||
|
||||
See [[2026-01-25#Calculating Monthly Principal & Interest Payment]].
|
||||
@@ -41,7 +45,9 @@ to reduce the total interest paid on the loan,
|
||||
but an unrelated investment with a sufficient return
|
||||
could outweigh the reduced loss.
|
||||
|
||||
Suppose you had $E$ dollars to
|
||||
Suppose you have a budget surplus of $E$ dollars
|
||||
and are deciding whether to make an elective payment on your mortgage
|
||||
or to invest in a promising opportunity.
|
||||
|
||||
The return on electing to pay $E$ to the mortgage
|
||||
is the
|
||||
|
||||
+9
-1
@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@ dg-publish: true
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-30 08:44
|
||||
|
||||
#topic/meta
|
||||
|
||||
Follow-up to [[2026-01-28#2026-01-28 10:02]].
|
||||
|
||||
I really would like to implement timestamped notes,
|
||||
@@ -22,6 +24,8 @@ Only the lack of plugin support stops me.
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-30 09:06
|
||||
|
||||
#topic/meta
|
||||
|
||||
I tried the Smart Connections community plugin.
|
||||
I can't imagine who it could be useful for.
|
||||
It seems to just identify large blocks of similar content,
|
||||
@@ -46,7 +50,7 @@ because the routines they programmed were too conservative.
|
||||
|
||||
Human or software,
|
||||
an assistant without agency
|
||||
and the will to contradict you
|
||||
_and the will to contradict you_
|
||||
is worthless.
|
||||
If the effort to _communicate_ your instructions
|
||||
exceeds the effort to perform them,
|
||||
@@ -54,6 +58,8 @@ you will always do the task yourself.
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-30 16:29
|
||||
|
||||
#topic/math/statistics
|
||||
|
||||
### Laplace's Rule of Succession (LRS)
|
||||
|
||||
> [!info]
|
||||
@@ -81,6 +87,8 @@ in any random sample of five from that population.
|
||||
|
||||
## 2026-01-30 18:33
|
||||
|
||||
#topic/personal-productivity
|
||||
|
||||
Why is it that I find it so easy, even compulsory,
|
||||
to clean my house while working from home,
|
||||
even after returning from work on-site?
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/timestamped
|
||||
- type/periodic/timestamped
|
||||
daily: "[[2026-01-31]]"
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/other
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/timestamped
|
||||
- type/periodic/timestamped
|
||||
daily: "[[2026-01-31]]"
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/timestamped
|
||||
- type/periodic/timestamped
|
||||
- topic/meta
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
daily: "[[2026-02-02]]"
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/timestamped
|
||||
- type/periodic/timestamped
|
||||
- occupational/takeoff
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
daily: "[[2026-02-02]]"
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/timestamped
|
||||
- type/periodic/timestamped
|
||||
- occupational
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
daily: "[[2026-02-03]]"
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/timestamped
|
||||
- type/periodic/timestamped
|
||||
- topic/estimating
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
daily: "[[2026-02-03]]"
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/timestamped
|
||||
- type/periodic/timestamped
|
||||
- occupational
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
daily: "[[2026-02-03]]"
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/timestamped
|
||||
- type/periodic/timestamped
|
||||
- occupational
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
daily: "[[2026-02-04]]"
|
||||
@@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ That is, who defines our purpose?
|
||||
### ConEst Organization
|
||||
|
||||
What freedom does ConEst have to change its process and deliverables?
|
||||
suppose a plan to have Bid, with their request for ConEst,
|
||||
Suppose a plan to have Bid, with their request for ConEst,
|
||||
articulate certain requirements which they must have possessed to produce the bid estimate.
|
||||
Who would be involved in the change?
|
||||
Who would be the one to deny the request?
|
||||
@@ -40,12 +40,15 @@ If Bid's proposals are audited,
|
||||
why do they still cause ConEst constant headache?
|
||||
("local lighting control")
|
||||
|
||||
***
|
||||
|
||||
Estimators and seniors are biased towards imprecision
|
||||
because its tolerance reduces monotonous work,
|
||||
but the logical conclusion of such bias is a Bid estimate.
|
||||
Obviously there is an ideal compromise
|
||||
between 1:1 takeoff to install and a square foot budget
|
||||
that ConEst is intended to produce.
|
||||
|
||||
Who is ultimately responsible
|
||||
for defining the position of that point on the spectrum?
|
||||
How is it defined?
|
||||
@@ -63,9 +66,9 @@ a better option between two.
|
||||
What's being done to address the variance which exists?
|
||||
What's being done to prevent it from re-emerging?
|
||||
|
||||
It's my belief that the most practical solution
|
||||
It is my belief that the most practical solution
|
||||
is the frequent rotation of estimators in senior teams.
|
||||
It's in the interest of estimators
|
||||
It is in the interest of estimators
|
||||
that their personal heuristics not depend on who they're working for,
|
||||
so they can be expected to call attention to inconsistency
|
||||
allowing it to be addressed permanently.
|
||||
@@ -85,7 +88,8 @@ Would I be better of keeping my mouth shut about it?
|
||||
#### Incentives
|
||||
|
||||
Bonuses based on awarded profit
|
||||
incentivize problematic (hare-hunting) behavior.
|
||||
incentivize problematic behavior
|
||||
([[game-theory#Stag Hunt|hare-hunting]]).
|
||||
Has such behavior been observed,
|
||||
or has chief strategy been organization-aligned
|
||||
in spite of the incentive?
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/timestamped
|
||||
- type/periodic/timestamped
|
||||
- topic/organization
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
daily: "[[2026-02-04]]"
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/timestamped
|
||||
- type/periodic/timestamped
|
||||
- occupational/takeoff
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
daily: "[[2026-02-04]]"
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/timestamped
|
||||
- type/periodic/timestamped
|
||||
- occupational/takeoff
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
daily: "[[2026-02-04]]"
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/timestamped
|
||||
- type/periodic/timestamped
|
||||
- topic/estimating
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
daily: "[[2026-02-04]]"
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/timestamped
|
||||
- type/periodic/timestamped
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
daily: "[[2026-02-04]]"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/timestamped
|
||||
- type/periodic/timestamped
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
daily: "[[2026-02-05]]"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -33,6 +33,7 @@ Senior ConEst Estimator: Joel Jansen
|
||||
* Corridors: $10 per linear foot
|
||||
* Amenity: $5 per square foot
|
||||
|
||||
> Digital lighting control is required
|
||||
> * FALSE: Multiple occupancy sensors per zone necessitates digital control.
|
||||
> * FALSE: 0-10V dimming necessitates digital control.
|
||||
> * FALSE: 0-10V dimming + occupancy sensing necessitates digital control.
|
||||
@@ -60,6 +61,9 @@ Ops creates, approves the labor plan.
|
||||
This limits our ability to make interesting decisions:
|
||||
MC cable ILO PVC in-slab pushes the schedule out.
|
||||
|
||||
[[estimating-golf]] question, asked by Corwin:
|
||||
"Are the electric rooms stacked?"
|
||||
|
||||
### Thoughts
|
||||
|
||||
#### Corwin
|
||||
|
||||
+1
-1
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/incomplete
|
||||
- topic/music/banjo
|
||||
- topic/hobbies/music/banjo
|
||||
- type/encyclopedia
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/incomplete
|
||||
- topic/music/banjo
|
||||
- topic/hobbies/music/banjo
|
||||
- type/encyclopedia
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
+1
-1
@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- exclude-from-word-count
|
||||
- status/incomplete
|
||||
- topic/music/banjo
|
||||
- topic/hobbies/music/banjo
|
||||
- type/media/music
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
id:
|
||||
aliases: []
|
||||
title: Estimating Golf
|
||||
tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/not-started
|
||||
- topic/estimating
|
||||
- type/encyclopedia-entry
|
||||
---
|
||||
# Estimating Golf
|
||||
|
||||
[[2025-12-18#Estimating Golf]]
|
||||
@@ -37,16 +37,16 @@ Use empty designations to separate phases.
|
||||
> # Stairwells
|
||||
> BS - Surface = 1.0hrs - #12 EMT 20ft
|
||||
> # Building
|
||||
> ## Units - Hotel
|
||||
> HU - Surface = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft
|
||||
> HU - Surface = 1.5hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft
|
||||
> HU - Surface (Pendant) = 2.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft
|
||||
> HU - Surface (J-Box For Future Fixture) = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft
|
||||
> HU - Recessed = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft
|
||||
> ## Units - Key
|
||||
> UK - Surface = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft
|
||||
> UK - Surface = 1.5hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft
|
||||
> UK - Surface (Pendant) = 2.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft
|
||||
> UK - Surface (J-Box For Future Fixture) = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft
|
||||
> UK - Recessed = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft
|
||||
> _
|
||||
> ## Units - Residential
|
||||
> CU - Surface (Tape) = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 25ft
|
||||
> CU - Surface (Wall) = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 25ft
|
||||
> UR - Surface (Tape) = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 25ft
|
||||
> UR - Surface (Wall) = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 25ft
|
||||
> ...
|
||||
> ```
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
+1
-1
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/fleeting
|
||||
- status/incomplete
|
||||
- topic/music/banjo
|
||||
- topic/hobbies/music/banjo
|
||||
- type/task
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -14,3 +14,7 @@ dg-publish: true
|
||||
|
||||
* (when misunderstood) "No, no, no."
|
||||
* certainly
|
||||
|
||||
* "... and stuff."
|
||||
* "Also too ..."
|
||||
*
|
||||
+1
-1
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/not-started
|
||||
- topic/music
|
||||
- topic/hobbies/music
|
||||
- type/encyclopedia-entry
|
||||
dg-publish: "true"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/incomplete
|
||||
- topic/music/banjo
|
||||
- topic/hobbies/music/banjo
|
||||
- type/encyclopedia
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
+1
-1
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/incomplete
|
||||
- topic/music
|
||||
- topic/hobbies/music
|
||||
- type/encyclopedia
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ title: My Resoluute Banjo
|
||||
tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- topic/music/banjo
|
||||
- topic/hobbies/music/banjo
|
||||
- type/encyclopedia-entry
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ tags:
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- topic/writing
|
||||
- type/task
|
||||
- topic/meta
|
||||
title: Write More Philosophy
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user