vault backup: 2026-02-18 17:27:27

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2026-02-18 17:27:28 -05:00
parent 9182283d57
commit 930ecb72a9
55 changed files with 208 additions and 160 deletions
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@@ -8,31 +8,59 @@
"collapse-color-groups": false, "collapse-color-groups": false,
"colorGroups": [ "colorGroups": [
{ {
"query": "tag:#occupational/takeoff ", "query": "tag:#type/periodic/timestamped ",
"color": { "color": {
"a": 1, "a": 1,
"rgb": 14701138 "rgb": 14523974
} }
}, },
{ {
"query": "tag:#topic/construction ", "query": "tag:#type/periodic/daily ",
"color": { "color": {
"a": 1, "a": 1,
"rgb": 11657298 "rgb": 12266267
} }
}, },
{ {
"query": "tag:#type/task", "query": "tag:#occupational ",
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"a": 1, "a": 1,
"rgb": 5431473 "rgb": 11392604
} }
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{ {
"query": "tag:#topic/hobbies", "query": "tag:#topic/estimating ",
"color": { "color": {
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},
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"query": "tag:#topic/meta ",
"color": {
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},
{
"query": "tag:#type/media ",
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{
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@@ -42,10 +70,10 @@
"nodeSizeMultiplier": 1, "nodeSizeMultiplier": 1,
"lineSizeMultiplier": 1, "lineSizeMultiplier": 1,
"collapse-forces": false, "collapse-forces": false,
"centerStrength": 0.848958333333333, "centerStrength": 0.5703125,
"repelStrength": 20, "repelStrength": 13.3854166666667,
"linkStrength": 1, "linkStrength": 1,
"linkDistance": 307, "linkDistance": 250,
"scale": 0.1845485538360368, "scale": 0.13163395511370124,
"close": false "close": false
} }
+8 -8
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@@ -5,8 +5,6 @@ title: 2025-11-10
tags: tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- original-format/digital-text
- original-format/typewritten-print
- status/complete - status/complete
- type/periodic/daily - type/periodic/daily
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
@@ -15,6 +13,8 @@ dg-publish: true
## 2025-11-10 06:53 --- Monday Morning Before Work ## 2025-11-10 06:53 --- Monday Morning Before Work
#original-format/typewritten-print #topic/mindfulness
I've been trying to be alone with my thoughts more I've been trying to be alone with my thoughts more
recently. It's almost bizarre how working in silence recently. It's almost bizarre how working in silence
for an hour makes the thought of music or an audio­book for an hour makes the thought of music or an audio­book
@@ -43,7 +43,7 @@ like music and style and... birdwatching...
## 2025-11-10 10:40 ## 2025-11-10 10:40
#topic/estimating #occupational #topic/estimating #occupational #original-format/digital-text
A significant change from Ace to PDI in my mentality during takeoff A significant change from Ace to PDI in my mentality during takeoff
is that I now tend to expect that (within reason) is that I now tend to expect that (within reason)
@@ -52,7 +52,7 @@ not holes in cost coverage.
## 2025-11-10 11:14 ## 2025-11-10 11:14
#occupational/takeoff #occupational/takeoff #original-format/digital-text
I was updating my notes, I was updating my notes,
filling in gaps in scripts based on Joel's, filling in gaps in scripts based on Joel's,
@@ -72,10 +72,10 @@ when I noticed a strange paragraph:
> > Types NM and NMC cables shall not be permitted as follows: > > Types NM and NMC cables shall not be permitted as follows:
> > > >
> > 1. In any dwelling or structure not specifically > > 1. In any dwelling or structure not specifically
> > permitted in 334.10(1), (2), (3) > > permitted in 334.10(1), (2), (3)
> > > >
> > 2. ==Exposed in dropped or suspended ceilings== > > 2. ==Exposed in dropped or suspended ceilings==
> > in other than one- and two-family and multifamily dwellings > > in other than one- and two-family and multifamily dwellings
This analysis of 334.12(A)(2) is flawed. This analysis of 334.12(A)(2) is flawed.
@@ -104,7 +104,7 @@ to be used whole-cloth on all estimates.
### "Feeder" ### "Feeder"
#topic/construction/electrical #topic/construction/electrical #original-format/digital-text
The NEC definition of feeder is quite strict. The NEC definition of feeder is quite strict.
I'm certain I misuse it frequently. I'm certain I misuse it frequently.
@@ -117,7 +117,7 @@ those are [[nfpa-70_100_definitions#Branch Circuit.|branch circuit]] conductors.
## 2025-11-10 20:00 --- Monday Evening, Before Bed ## 2025-11-10 20:00 --- Monday Evening, Before Bed
#topic/estimating #occupational #topic/estimating #occupational #original-format/typewritten-print
Today while (a peer) and I were walking, he asked Today while (a peer) and I were walking, he asked
me what I thought of his qualities as an estimator. me what I thought of his qualities as an estimator.
+1 -1
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@@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ desirable position.
## 2025-11-11 14:41 ## 2025-11-11 14:41
#topic/estimating #topic/transparency #topic/estimating #topic/transparency #original-format/digital-text
I just saw a post on a construction estimators forum I just saw a post on a construction estimators forum
from a user lamenting that their coworkers and customers from a user lamenting that their coworkers and customers
+1 -1
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@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ dg-publish: true
## 2025-11-14 13:41 ## 2025-11-14 13:41
#topic/meta #topic/music/banjo #topic/hobbies/shorthand #topic/meta #topic/hobbies/music/banjo #topic/hobbies/shorthand
I added two new long term tasks to the notebook. I added two new long term tasks to the notebook.
+5 -1
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@@ -44,7 +44,11 @@ Fire stopping budget = $25-35 per Unit.
Robotic Total Station hours: match Structural Foreman. Robotic Total Station hours: match Structural Foreman.
Equipment Cost $\approx$ 1% for contracts 5-15 million dollars. For contracts 5--15 million dollars:
$$
\text{Equipment Cost} \approx 1\%
$$
Mid Atlantic: 1 trip per month Mid Atlantic: 1 trip per month
+1 -1
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@@ -23,4 +23,4 @@ MC multi-circuit homeruns have makeup included
"PA Historicals" --- Project Accounting Historicals "PA Historicals" --- Project Accounting Historicals
.136 General Liability & Worker's Compensation .136 General Liability & Worker's Compensation
.066 General Liability Only .066 General Liability Only
-2
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@@ -10,5 +10,3 @@ tags:
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
--- ---
# 2025-11-21 # 2025-11-21
[[2025-11-21_10-11-00]]
+2
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@@ -11,6 +11,8 @@ tags:
--- ---
# 2025-11-21 10:11:?? # 2025-11-21 10:11:??
#topic/organization
> [!quote] [ELECTRI's Industry Benchmarking Tool - ELECTRI International](https://www.electri.org/research-overview/electris-industry-benchmarking-tool/) > [!quote] [ELECTRI's Industry Benchmarking Tool - ELECTRI International](https://www.electri.org/research-overview/electris-industry-benchmarking-tool/)
> ### Hours Burned vs. Hours Earned > ### Hours Burned vs. Hours Earned
> >
+7 -4
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@@ -21,12 +21,14 @@ There is a distinct difference between _excluding_ and _ignoring_ requirements.
If, before award, you communicate to the customer If, before award, you communicate to the customer
that your cost does not include respect for a requirement, that your cost does not include respect for a requirement,
_and_ they understand the implications of the omission, _and they understand the implications of the omission,_
you have _excluded_ that requirement. you have _excluded_ that requirement.
If your cost does not include respect for a requirement, If your cost does not include respect for a requirement,
but you have not communicated the omission to the customer but you have not
_and_ made a reasonable effort to inform them of the implications of its omission (1) communicated the omission to the customer, _and_
(2) made a reasonable effort to inform the customer
of the implications of the requirement's omission,
you are _ignoring_ that requirement. you are _ignoring_ that requirement.
_Excluding_ requirements is common practice. _Excluding_ requirements is common practice.
@@ -35,7 +37,8 @@ _Ignoring_ requirements is unprofessional and irresponsible.
Sometimes requirements are ignored out of convenience. Sometimes requirements are ignored out of convenience.
If an estimator is confident a requirement won't be enforced, If an estimator is confident a requirement won't be enforced,
they may ignore it to lower the estimate and save time in closeout. they may ignore it to lower the estimate and save time in closeout.
More ethical estimators may have no desire to do so,
More ethical estimators may have no desire to ignore requirements,
but may nonetheless feel obligated to. but may nonetheless feel obligated to.
If a contractor is confident their competitors will ignore a requirement, If a contractor is confident their competitors will ignore a requirement,
they may feel that the moral high road offers two losing options: they may feel that the moral high road offers two losing options:
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@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ dg-publish: true
#topic/automation #topic/automation
* [ ] TODO: Build test case estimating helper html app 2026-12-04 * [x] TODO: Build test case estimating helper html app 2026-12-04
It may be possible It may be possible
to replicate the behavior of my takeoff workbooks to replicate the behavior of my takeoff workbooks
@@ -33,6 +33,6 @@ This would be preferable since it would allow
A good test case would be a simple 3 variable equation solver. A good test case would be a simple 3 variable equation solver.
speed * speed
distance * distance
time * time
-16
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@@ -1,16 +0,0 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-12-05
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/periodic/daily
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-12-05
## 2025-12-05 10:41
[[pdi-breakdowns#Area: Office Space]]
-16
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@@ -1,16 +0,0 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-12-06
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/periodic/daily
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-12-06
## 2025-12-06 13:13
[[intellectual-capital]]
-16
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@@ -1,16 +0,0 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-12-08
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/periodic/daily
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-12-08
## 2025-12-08 11:03
[[ambiguity-in-construction-estimating]]
+4 -2
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@@ -33,8 +33,10 @@ neither are readily applicable to building construction.
Of the two, pure math would be be preferred--- Of the two, pure math would be be preferred---
being generally more rigorous--- being generally more rigorous---
but the first bin far outweighs the second. but the first bin far outweighs the second.
See the difference in content from [geostatistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geostatistics) See the difference in content from
to the conceivably far more broad [spatial statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spatial_statistics). [geostatistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geostatistics)
to the conceivably far more broad
[spatial statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spatial_statistics).
> [!quote] [Geographic data and information](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographic_data_and_information) > [!quote] [Geographic data and information](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographic_data_and_information)
> **Spatial data** or **spatial information** is broader class of data > **Spatial data** or **spatial information** is broader class of data
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@@ -1,16 +0,0 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2025-12-22
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/periodic/daily
dg-publish: true
---
# 2025-12-22
## 2025-12-22 08:51
[[music-theory]]
+22 -10
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@@ -15,9 +15,14 @@ dg-publish: true
### _Let Them Theory_ Theory ### _Let Them Theory_ Theory
1. Person habitually engages in toxic behavior which they consciously believe to be benevolent 1. Person habitually engages in toxic behavior
2. Person recognizes that when they stop engaging in said toxic behavior, others appreciate it which they consciously believe to be benevolent
3. Person feels that they are doing a service by not engaging in said toxic behavior
2. Person recognizes that when they stop engaging in said toxic behavior,
others appreciate it
3. Person feels that they are doing a service
by not engaging in said toxic behavior
## 2026-01-06 10:00 ## 2026-01-06 10:00
@@ -25,7 +30,7 @@ Paraphrased Teams conversation with a peer
about [[distribution-designations#Terminations]]. about [[distribution-designations#Terminations]].
Peer's messages are in block quotes. Peer's messages are in block quotes.
### Content ***
> Good morning! > Good morning!
> Do you add branch terminations to panelboards? > Do you add branch terminations to panelboards?
@@ -68,11 +73,15 @@ Morning! Yes to the first question, ? to the second
> Ah, so you just chuck in a lot # of terms per board and call it good? > Ah, so you just chuck in a lot # of terms per board and call it good?
Essentially. Essentially.
Ben's direction was to pick a schedule on the upper end of terms for each size panel to be representative of the rest. Ben's direction was to pick a schedule
on the upper end of terms for each size panel
to be representative of the rest.
At my old place I would have made a designation for each panel, At my old place I would have made a designation for each panel,
I'm not upset to leave that behind. I'm not upset to leave that behind.
I see no reason you couldn't just make each size once and keep it in a temp job. I see no reason you couldn't just make each size once
I would, but I usually extract the schedules anyway so I just use the actual average. and keep it in a temp job.
I would, but I usually extract the schedules anyway
so I just use the actual average.
> Thank you for that. > Thank you for that.
> Joel wagged his finger at me about missing terms this morning--- > Joel wagged his finger at me about missing terms this morning---
@@ -87,7 +96,8 @@ the feeder assemblies have both sides,
the branch assemblies don't have either, the branch assemblies don't have either,
that's why he got you, I think. that's why he got you, I think.
I don't think my way is best unless you already have all the circuits in a big table for other reasons. I don't think my way is best
unless you already have all the circuits in a big table for other reasons.
Lot of effort for a marginal increase in certainty above a heuristic like Ben's. Lot of effort for a marginal increase in certainty above a heuristic like Ben's.
I'm working on a job Noah started now, I'm working on a job Noah started now,
@@ -95,7 +105,8 @@ he made certain panels separate from what I assume is the average
and labeled them with the name of the panel. and labeled them with the name of the panel.
If I had a job where some were significantly more full than others If I had a job where some were significantly more full than others
I _might_ do something similar, I _might_ do something similar,
but I'd probably name them "... 1-Section, ~25% Fill"/"... 1-Section, ~75% Fill" instead. but I'd probably name them
"... 1-Section, ~25% Fill"/"... 1-Section, ~75% Fill" instead.
But that's a lot of mental overhead. But that's a lot of mental overhead.
## 2026-01-06 10:57 ## 2026-01-06 10:57
@@ -111,4 +122,5 @@ Out of contract building area for renovations?
Maybe the sum of in-contract building area and other areas prorated somehow. Maybe the sum of in-contract building area and other areas prorated somehow.
Seems imminently gameable. Seems imminently gameable.
See [[incentives#Perverse Incentive]] and [[estimating-culture#Incentives]]. See [[incentives#Perverse Incentive]]
and [[estimating-culture#Incentives]].
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@@ -119,6 +119,8 @@ because otherwise it would be necessary to have double the assemblies,
or to expect estimators to substitute each size of wire or to expect estimators to substitute each size of wire
everywhere bare was necessary. everywhere bare was necessary.
See [[realism-vs-instrumentalism]].
## 2026-01-07 16:03 ## 2026-01-07 16:03
#occupational #topic/estimating #topic/organization #occupational #topic/estimating #topic/organization
+1 -1
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@@ -88,7 +88,7 @@ $C(t)$ returns a distribution whose [scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale_
decreases with $t$, and $C(0)$ maps to a single value. decreases with $t$, and $C(0)$ maps to a single value.
$t>0$ is time until the final payment. $t>0$ is time until the final payment.
> ![503x480](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/Log-normal-pdfs.png/960px-Log-normal-pdfs.png) > ![250](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/Log-normal-pdfs.png/960px-Log-normal-pdfs.png)
> >
> Figure: lognormal distributions with the same [location](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Location_parameter) > Figure: lognormal distributions with the same [location](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Location_parameter)
> varied by [scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale_parameter). > varied by [scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale_parameter).
+9 -7
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@@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ then there are few who in the world who couldn't,
given infinite time for a single bid. given infinite time for a single bid.
The _true_ value of an estimator, then, The _true_ value of an estimator, then,
is in their ability to model project cost _efficiently_, that is, is in their ability to model project cost _efficiently_, that is,
to achieve acceptable accuracy and precision as quickly as possible,--- to achieve _acceptable_ accuracy and precision as quickly as possible,---
much as the engineer's is in building a bridge that _meets_ the requirements much as the engineer's is in building a bridge that _meets_ the requirements
as cheaply as possible. as cheaply as possible.
@@ -53,9 +53,10 @@ it is not cost-effective[^1] to allow it to take four.[^2]
[^1]: "Cost" referring both to estimator salaries and the opportunity cost of declined bids. [^1]: "Cost" referring both to estimator salaries and the opportunity cost of declined bids.
[^2]: Supposing a contractor maintained a modern portfolio theory styled record [^2]: Supposing a contractor maintained a modern portfolio theory styled record of estimates
of estimates including pending bids, and projects ongoing and completed, including pending bids, and projects ongoing and completed
with confidence estimates uncorrupted by [[estimating-culture#Incentives|perverse incentives]], (each with confidence estimates),
uncorrupted by [[estimating-culture#Incentives|perverse incentives]],
they may have reasonable basis to set sliding standards for estimate precision they may have reasonable basis to set sliding standards for estimate precision
to be specifically determined at consideration of the opportunity for bid to be specifically determined at consideration of the opportunity for bid
according to current climate (i.e. their transient risk appetite). according to current climate (i.e. their transient risk appetite).
@@ -63,6 +64,7 @@ it is not cost-effective[^1] to allow it to take four.[^2]
No contractor is doing that, so they lack a competent measure of risk tolerance No contractor is doing that, so they lack a competent measure of risk tolerance
besides continuing to tolerate what they have historically. besides continuing to tolerate what they have historically.
Objectionable as it is, > [!important]
it is to be expected that estimators will use all time allowed them > Objectionable as it is,
when the standards for _acceptability_ are inadequately defined. > it is to be expected that estimators will use all time allowed them
> when the standards for _acceptability_ are inadequately defined.
+10
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@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@ dg-publish: true
## 2026-01-12 10:00 ## 2026-01-12 10:00
#occupational
### ECH3 Executed Contract Revision WBS ### ECH3 Executed Contract Revision WBS
For Executed Contract Revisions, Bid GP% must be maintained. For Executed Contract Revisions, Bid GP% must be maintained.
@@ -21,6 +23,8 @@ in order to compensate for an increase in permit fee coverage.
## 2026-01-12 10:42 ## 2026-01-12 10:42
#occupational
### Woodbrook Executed Contract Revision Takeoff Check ### Woodbrook Executed Contract Revision Takeoff Check
#### Unit Dishwasher/Disposal #### Unit Dishwasher/Disposal
@@ -33,6 +37,8 @@ According to Joel this takeoff is correct for the scenario.
## 2026-01-12 12:23 ## 2026-01-12 12:23
#occupational
Travelling with Brian Smarslok and Joel Jansen on [[2026-01-15]] Travelling with Brian Smarslok and Joel Jansen on [[2026-01-15]]
to visit [[#Woodbury Heights|an awarded project]] in New Jersey. to visit [[#Woodbury Heights|an awarded project]] in New Jersey.
Flying from TPA to PHL, departure @ 7:00AM. Flying from TPA to PHL, departure @ 7:00AM.
@@ -92,11 +98,15 @@ can be blamed for any significant portion of variance that extreme.
## 2026-01-12 13:02 ## 2026-01-12 13:02
#topic/construction
**Dry utilities:** utilities other than "wet" utilities (water, sewer, stormwater), **Dry utilities:** utilities other than "wet" utilities (water, sewer, stormwater),
namely power, data, and natural gas. namely power, data, and natural gas.
## 2026-01-12 13:02 ## 2026-01-12 13:02
#occupational
Joel attributes the [[#GP Variance|apparent variance]] to Joel attributes the [[#GP Variance|apparent variance]] to
1. missed Polaris lugs for feeders for one building, 1. missed Polaris lugs for feeders for one building,
2. insufficient budget for equipment rental, and 2. insufficient budget for equipment rental, and
+2
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@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@ dg-publish: true
## 2026-01-13 11:28 ## 2026-01-13 11:28
#occupational
### 2100 Crystal Drive ConEst Manager Review ### 2100 Crystal Drive ConEst Manager Review
#### Josh's Review Order #### Josh's Review Order
+2
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@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@ dg-publish: true
## 2026-01-14 13:27 ## 2026-01-14 13:27
#occupational
Follow-up to [[2026-01-13#Lighting Control]] Follow-up to [[2026-01-13#Lighting Control]]
Conversation between Joel Jansen and Christian Pereiro Conversation between Joel Jansen and Christian Pereiro
-4
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@@ -21,7 +21,3 @@ Left Apartment at 05:30, at terminal around 06:10.
[[2025-11-13#2025-11-13 08:19]] [[2025-11-13#2025-11-13 08:19]]
I spoke to a peer about this yesterday. I spoke to a peer about this yesterday.
## 2026-01-15 08:18
[[2025-12-03#Excluding Vs. Ignoring Project Requirements|Excluding Vs. Ignoring Project Requirements]]
+2
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@@ -26,6 +26,8 @@ for the sort of formatting I've been doing recently.
## 2026-01-19 12:32 ## 2026-01-19 12:32
#topic/construction #topic/estimating
Real example of [[location-vs-scope]]: Real example of [[location-vs-scope]]:
450-460 James Robertson Parkway Phase II (fka James Roberston Pkwy Mixed Use Development) 450-460 James Robertson Parkway Phase II (fka James Roberston Pkwy Mixed Use Development)
+7 -1
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@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@ dg-publish: true
## 2026-01-22 09:55 ## 2026-01-22 09:55
#occupational
The lighting drawings for The lighting drawings for
450-460 James Robertson Parkway Phase II 450-460 James Robertson Parkway Phase II
(fka James Roberston Pkwy Mixed Use Development) (fka James Roberston Pkwy Mixed Use Development)
@@ -25,6 +27,8 @@ is the relevant section.
## 2026-01-22 11:58 ## 2026-01-22 11:58
#occupational
### 463 Davison Contract Dates ### 463 Davison Contract Dates
[[463-davison-ave-ne]] [[463-davison-ave-ne]]
@@ -41,6 +45,8 @@ Closing: [[2026-03-04]]
## 2026-01-22 14:56 ## 2026-01-22 14:56
#topic/estimating
### Accurate Budget Vs. Accurate BOM ### Accurate Budget Vs. Accurate BOM
#### Quote #### Quote
@@ -64,7 +70,7 @@ The review and adjustment process
is based on standard practice, is based on standard practice,
so deviations may have unpredictable effects. so deviations may have unpredictable effects.
Our assemblies do not include screws Our assemblies do not include screws.
It would be more accurate to the BOM to add them, It would be more accurate to the BOM to add them,
but we budget for that cost in the summary, but we budget for that cost in the summary,
so to do so would be double dipping. so to do so would be double dipping.
+1 -1
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@@ -120,7 +120,7 @@ there's an order of magnitude right there.
[^1]: $1~\text{US bushel} \equiv 9\frac{3571}{11550}~\text{US Gallons} \approx 9.3~\text{US Gallons}$ [^1]: $1~\text{US bushel} \equiv 9\frac{3571}{11550}~\text{US Gallons} \approx 9.3~\text{US Gallons}$
The study suggests decomposition has no effect on estimate confidence The study suggests decomposition has no effect on estimate _confidence_
---which I'm tempted to believe because its funny ---which I'm tempted to believe because its funny
and it tracks with my anecdotal experience--- and it tracks with my anecdotal experience---
but I wonder if subjects using their own decompositions would present similarly. but I wonder if subjects using their own decompositions would present similarly.
+7 -1
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@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@ dg-publish: true
## 2026-01-29 10:07 ## 2026-01-29 10:07
#topic/estimating
A peer's senior, expressing frustration, A peer's senior, expressing frustration,
told them that it if they disagree with an instruction, told them that it if they disagree with an instruction,
they must have a reason, they must have a reason,
@@ -32,6 +34,8 @@ speaks to a fundamental misunderstanding of the purpose of estimating.
## 2026-01-29 17:57 ## 2026-01-29 17:57
#topic/finance
### Calculating Utility of Above-Minimum Mortgage Payment ### Calculating Utility of Above-Minimum Mortgage Payment
See [[2026-01-25#Calculating Monthly Principal & Interest Payment]]. See [[2026-01-25#Calculating Monthly Principal & Interest Payment]].
@@ -41,7 +45,9 @@ to reduce the total interest paid on the loan,
but an unrelated investment with a sufficient return but an unrelated investment with a sufficient return
could outweigh the reduced loss. could outweigh the reduced loss.
Suppose you had $E$ dollars to Suppose you have a budget surplus of $E$ dollars
and are deciding whether to make an elective payment on your mortgage
or to invest in a promising opportunity.
The return on electing to pay $E$ to the mortgage The return on electing to pay $E$ to the mortgage
is the is the
+9 -1
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@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@ dg-publish: true
## 2026-01-30 08:44 ## 2026-01-30 08:44
#topic/meta
Follow-up to [[2026-01-28#2026-01-28 10:02]]. Follow-up to [[2026-01-28#2026-01-28 10:02]].
I really would like to implement timestamped notes, I really would like to implement timestamped notes,
@@ -22,6 +24,8 @@ Only the lack of plugin support stops me.
## 2026-01-30 09:06 ## 2026-01-30 09:06
#topic/meta
I tried the Smart Connections community plugin. I tried the Smart Connections community plugin.
I can't imagine who it could be useful for. I can't imagine who it could be useful for.
It seems to just identify large blocks of similar content, It seems to just identify large blocks of similar content,
@@ -46,7 +50,7 @@ because the routines they programmed were too conservative.
Human or software, Human or software,
an assistant without agency an assistant without agency
and the will to contradict you _and the will to contradict you_
is worthless. is worthless.
If the effort to _communicate_ your instructions If the effort to _communicate_ your instructions
exceeds the effort to perform them, exceeds the effort to perform them,
@@ -54,6 +58,8 @@ you will always do the task yourself.
## 2026-01-30 16:29 ## 2026-01-30 16:29
#topic/math/statistics
### Laplace's Rule of Succession (LRS) ### Laplace's Rule of Succession (LRS)
> [!info] > [!info]
@@ -81,6 +87,8 @@ in any random sample of five from that population.
## 2026-01-30 18:33 ## 2026-01-30 18:33
#topic/personal-productivity
Why is it that I find it so easy, even compulsory, Why is it that I find it so easy, even compulsory,
to clean my house while working from home, to clean my house while working from home,
even after returning from work on-site? even after returning from work on-site?
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/draft - status/draft
- type/timestamped - type/periodic/timestamped
daily: "[[2026-01-31]]" daily: "[[2026-01-31]]"
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
--- ---
+1 -1
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/other - authorship/other
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/draft - status/draft
- type/timestamped - type/periodic/timestamped
daily: "[[2026-01-31]]" daily: "[[2026-01-31]]"
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
--- ---
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/draft - status/draft
- type/timestamped - type/periodic/timestamped
- topic/meta - topic/meta
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
daily: "[[2026-02-02]]" daily: "[[2026-02-02]]"
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/draft - status/draft
- type/timestamped - type/periodic/timestamped
- occupational/takeoff - occupational/takeoff
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
daily: "[[2026-02-02]]" daily: "[[2026-02-02]]"
+1 -1
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/draft - status/draft
- type/timestamped - type/periodic/timestamped
- occupational - occupational
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
daily: "[[2026-02-03]]" daily: "[[2026-02-03]]"
+1 -1
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/draft - status/draft
- type/timestamped - type/periodic/timestamped
- topic/estimating - topic/estimating
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
daily: "[[2026-02-03]]" daily: "[[2026-02-03]]"
+1 -1
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/draft - status/draft
- type/timestamped - type/periodic/timestamped
- occupational - occupational
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
daily: "[[2026-02-03]]" daily: "[[2026-02-03]]"
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/draft - status/draft
- type/timestamped - type/periodic/timestamped
- occupational - occupational
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
daily: "[[2026-02-04]]" daily: "[[2026-02-04]]"
@@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ That is, who defines our purpose?
### ConEst Organization ### ConEst Organization
What freedom does ConEst have to change its process and deliverables? What freedom does ConEst have to change its process and deliverables?
suppose a plan to have Bid, with their request for ConEst, Suppose a plan to have Bid, with their request for ConEst,
articulate certain requirements which they must have possessed to produce the bid estimate. articulate certain requirements which they must have possessed to produce the bid estimate.
Who would be involved in the change? Who would be involved in the change?
Who would be the one to deny the request? Who would be the one to deny the request?
@@ -40,12 +40,15 @@ If Bid's proposals are audited,
why do they still cause ConEst constant headache? why do they still cause ConEst constant headache?
("local lighting control") ("local lighting control")
***
Estimators and seniors are biased towards imprecision Estimators and seniors are biased towards imprecision
because its tolerance reduces monotonous work, because its tolerance reduces monotonous work,
but the logical conclusion of such bias is a Bid estimate. but the logical conclusion of such bias is a Bid estimate.
Obviously there is an ideal compromise Obviously there is an ideal compromise
between 1:1 takeoff to install and a square foot budget between 1:1 takeoff to install and a square foot budget
that ConEst is intended to produce. that ConEst is intended to produce.
Who is ultimately responsible Who is ultimately responsible
for defining the position of that point on the spectrum? for defining the position of that point on the spectrum?
How is it defined? How is it defined?
@@ -63,9 +66,9 @@ a better option between two.
What's being done to address the variance which exists? What's being done to address the variance which exists?
What's being done to prevent it from re-emerging? What's being done to prevent it from re-emerging?
It's my belief that the most practical solution It is my belief that the most practical solution
is the frequent rotation of estimators in senior teams. is the frequent rotation of estimators in senior teams.
It's in the interest of estimators It is in the interest of estimators
that their personal heuristics not depend on who they're working for, that their personal heuristics not depend on who they're working for,
so they can be expected to call attention to inconsistency so they can be expected to call attention to inconsistency
allowing it to be addressed permanently. allowing it to be addressed permanently.
@@ -85,7 +88,8 @@ Would I be better of keeping my mouth shut about it?
#### Incentives #### Incentives
Bonuses based on awarded profit Bonuses based on awarded profit
incentivize problematic (hare-hunting) behavior. incentivize problematic behavior
([[game-theory#Stag Hunt|hare-hunting]]).
Has such behavior been observed, Has such behavior been observed,
or has chief strategy been organization-aligned or has chief strategy been organization-aligned
in spite of the incentive? in spite of the incentive?
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/draft - status/draft
- type/timestamped - type/periodic/timestamped
- topic/organization - topic/organization
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
daily: "[[2026-02-04]]" daily: "[[2026-02-04]]"
+1 -1
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/draft - status/draft
- type/timestamped - type/periodic/timestamped
- occupational/takeoff - occupational/takeoff
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
daily: "[[2026-02-04]]" daily: "[[2026-02-04]]"
+1 -1
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/draft - status/draft
- type/timestamped - type/periodic/timestamped
- occupational/takeoff - occupational/takeoff
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
daily: "[[2026-02-04]]" daily: "[[2026-02-04]]"
+1 -1
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/draft - status/draft
- type/timestamped - type/periodic/timestamped
- topic/estimating - topic/estimating
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
daily: "[[2026-02-04]]" daily: "[[2026-02-04]]"
+1 -1
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/draft - status/draft
- type/timestamped - type/periodic/timestamped
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
daily: "[[2026-02-04]]" daily: "[[2026-02-04]]"
--- ---
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/draft - status/draft
- type/timestamped - type/periodic/timestamped
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
daily: "[[2026-02-05]]" daily: "[[2026-02-05]]"
--- ---
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@@ -33,6 +33,7 @@ Senior ConEst Estimator: Joel Jansen
* Corridors: $10 per linear foot * Corridors: $10 per linear foot
* Amenity: $5 per square foot * Amenity: $5 per square foot
> Digital lighting control is required
> * FALSE: Multiple occupancy sensors per zone necessitates digital control. > * FALSE: Multiple occupancy sensors per zone necessitates digital control.
> * FALSE: 0-10V dimming necessitates digital control. > * FALSE: 0-10V dimming necessitates digital control.
> * FALSE: 0-10V dimming + occupancy sensing necessitates digital control. > * FALSE: 0-10V dimming + occupancy sensing necessitates digital control.
@@ -60,6 +61,9 @@ Ops creates, approves the labor plan.
This limits our ability to make interesting decisions: This limits our ability to make interesting decisions:
MC cable ILO PVC in-slab pushes the schedule out. MC cable ILO PVC in-slab pushes the schedule out.
[[estimating-golf]] question, asked by Corwin:
"Are the electric rooms stacked?"
### Thoughts ### Thoughts
#### Corwin #### Corwin
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete - status/incomplete
- topic/music/banjo - topic/hobbies/music/banjo
- type/encyclopedia - type/encyclopedia
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
--- ---
+1 -1
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete - status/incomplete
- topic/music/banjo - topic/hobbies/music/banjo
- type/encyclopedia - type/encyclopedia
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
--- ---
+1 -1
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@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ tags:
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- exclude-from-word-count - exclude-from-word-count
- status/incomplete - status/incomplete
- topic/music/banjo - topic/hobbies/music/banjo
- type/media/music - type/media/music
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
--- ---
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@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: Estimating Golf
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/not-started
- topic/estimating
- type/encyclopedia-entry
---
# Estimating Golf
[[2025-12-18#Estimating Golf]]
+8 -8
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@@ -37,16 +37,16 @@ Use empty designations to separate phases.
> # Stairwells > # Stairwells
> BS - Surface = 1.0hrs - #12 EMT 20ft > BS - Surface = 1.0hrs - #12 EMT 20ft
> # Building > # Building
> ## Units - Hotel > ## Units - Key
> HU - Surface = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft > UK - Surface = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft
> HU - Surface = 1.5hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft > UK - Surface = 1.5hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft
> HU - Surface (Pendant) = 2.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft > UK - Surface (Pendant) = 2.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft
> HU - Surface (J-Box For Future Fixture) = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft > UK - Surface (J-Box For Future Fixture) = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft
> HU - Recessed = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft > UK - Recessed = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 20ft
> _ > _
> ## Units - Residential > ## Units - Residential
> CU - Surface (Tape) = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 25ft > UR - Surface (Tape) = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 25ft
> CU - Surface (Wall) = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 25ft > UR - Surface (Wall) = 1.0hrs - #12 MC+LV 25ft
> ... > ...
> ``` > ```
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/fleeting - destiny/fleeting
- status/incomplete - status/incomplete
- topic/music/banjo - topic/hobbies/music/banjo
- type/task - type/task
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
--- ---
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@@ -14,3 +14,7 @@ dg-publish: true
* (when misunderstood) "No, no, no." * (when misunderstood) "No, no, no."
* certainly * certainly
* "... and stuff."
* "Also too ..."
*
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/not-started - status/not-started
- topic/music - topic/hobbies/music
- type/encyclopedia-entry - type/encyclopedia-entry
dg-publish: "true" dg-publish: "true"
--- ---
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete - status/incomplete
- topic/music/banjo - topic/hobbies/music/banjo
- type/encyclopedia - type/encyclopedia
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
--- ---
+1 -1
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete - status/incomplete
- topic/music - topic/hobbies/music
- type/encyclopedia - type/encyclopedia
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
--- ---
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@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ title: My Resoluute Banjo
tags: tags:
- authorship/original - authorship/original
- destiny/permanent - destiny/permanent
- topic/music/banjo - topic/hobbies/music/banjo
- type/encyclopedia-entry - type/encyclopedia-entry
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
--- ---
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@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ tags:
- status/draft - status/draft
- topic/writing - topic/writing
- type/task - type/task
- topic/meta
title: Write More Philosophy title: Write More Philosophy
dg-publish: true dg-publish: true
--- ---