Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main'

This commit is contained in:
2026-01-09 15:01:15 -05:00
37 changed files with 1004 additions and 96 deletions
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"calendar",
"periodic-notes",
"spellcheck-toggler",
"obsidian-pandoc"
"obsidian-pandoc",
"obsidian-tasks-plugin"
]
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{
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"this_folder": "folder includes {{query.file.folder}}",
"this_folder_only": "filter by function task.file.folder === query.file.folder",
"this_root": "root includes {{query.file.root}}",
"hide_date_fields": "# Hide any values for all date fields\nhide due date\nhide scheduled date\nhide start date\nhide created date\nhide done date\nhide cancelled date",
"hide_non_date_fields": "# Hide all the non-date fields, but not tags\nhide id\nhide depends on\nhide recurrence rule\nhide on completion\nhide priority",
"hide_query_elements": "# Hide postpone, edit and backinks\nhide postpone button\nhide edit button\nhide backlinks",
"hide_everything": "# Hide everything except description and any tags\npreset hide_date_fields\npreset hide_non_date_fields\npreset hide_query_elements"
},
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"globalFilter": "TODO",
"removeGlobalFilter": true,
"taskFormat": "tasksPluginEmoji",
"setCreatedDate": false,
"setDoneDate": true,
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"autoSuggestInEditor": true,
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"availableAsCommand": true,
"type": "TODO"
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"nextStatusSymbol": " ",
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"type": "DONE"
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"nextStatusSymbol": "x",
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"type": "IN_PROGRESS"
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{
"id": "obsidian-tasks-plugin",
"name": "Tasks",
"version": "7.22.0",
"minAppVersion": "1.4.0",
"description": "Track tasks across your vault. Supports due dates, recurring tasks, done dates, sub-set of checklist items, and filtering.",
"helpUrl": "https://publish.obsidian.md/tasks/",
"author": "Clare Macrae and Ilyas Landikov (created by Martin Schenck)",
"authorUrl": "https://github.com/obsidian-tasks-group",
"fundingUrl": "https://github.com/sponsors/claremacrae",
"isDesktopOnly": false
}
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id:
aliases: []
title: "13723 Feather Sound Circle East #210"
tags: []
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete
---
# 13723 Feather Sound Circle East #210
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@@ -2,7 +2,10 @@
id:
aliases: []
title: 2009 Honda Civic
tags: []
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete
---
# 2009 Honda Civic
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@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ title: 2025-11-14
## 2025-11-14 13:41
#topic/meta #topic/hobbies/banjo #topic/hobbies/shorthand
#topic/meta #topic/music/banjo #topic/hobbies/shorthand
I added two new long term tasks to the notebook.
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@@ -102,3 +102,12 @@ But that's a lot of mental overhead.
Tracking contractor growth by project square footage
rather than contract value dollars.
Account for market shifts and regional differences.
Problematic for other than new residential construction.
Do you count site area?
Out of contract building area for renovations?
Maybe the sum of in-contract building area and other areas prorated somehow.
Seems imminently gameable.
See [[incentives#Perverse Incentive]] and [[estimating-culture#Incentives]].
+23 -2
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@@ -81,12 +81,33 @@ like it was for my mentors and peers at Ace.
## 2026-01-07 12:13
#occupational #topic/estimating #topic/organization
Just now Jorge admonished another peer
for using insulated wire for pool bonding.
for using insulated wire for pool bonding,
his rational was flawed beyond saving
(something about the difference between bonding and grounding),
but stemmed from a frustratingly common misunderstanding
that our Accubid assemblies are intended to be an accurate list
of the material to be installed.
They are not.
If they were intended to be accurate,
there would need to be several times as many.
They are a compromise between accuracy and estimator effort.
It should be assumed that for common scope,
at least one assembly should be acceptable as-is.
Pool bonding is required for at least a quarter of our jobs.
We have no bonding assemblies with bare wire.
Therefore it must be assumed that it was determined
that it would be acceptable to represent bare wire bonding with insulated wire items,
because otherwise it would be necessary to have double the assemblies,
or to ec
## 2026-01-07 16:03
#occupational #topic/organization
#occupational #topic/estimating #topic/organization
There is a palpable animosity for [[pdi-estimating#Bid Estimating|Bid]]
in [[pdi-estimating#Construction Estimating (ConEst)|ConEst]],
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---
id:
aliases: []
title: "2026-01-08"
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/daily
---
# 2026-01-08
## 2026-01-08 13:33
### 2100 Crystal Drive Takeoff Review
#### Generators
> [!failure]
> Generators were erroneously broken down in switchgear.
[[switchgear-takeoff#Generator|Generator]]
#### Switchgear
Switchgear cost comp
"\\EgnyteDrive\Shared\Estimating\11 Bid Estimating Spreadsheets\Switchgear Pricing Tool Version 2 (2.02.2024) (Template) - Copy.xls"
Includes
* submetering
* coordination study
#### Composite Cleanup
1 day per week
$$
\text{Average Weeks Per Month} =
$$
> It occurs to me I don't know all the rules of our calendar
> [Gregorian calendar - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gregorian_calendar)
#### Temp Power
$10,000 per [[heavy-equipment#Swing Stage Scaffolding|swing stage]]
[[temp-power-takeoff]]
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---
id:
aliases: []
title: "2026-01-09"
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/daily
---
# 2026-01-09
## 2026-01-09 10:00
### 2100 Crystal Drive
`#600 ? WHITE ?` had incorrect sort codes.
#### Lighting Control
I took of lighting per plans (E510)
in spite of proposal stating "local control".
Will have to be changed.
#### Labor Factor
Fire Alarm
Switchgear
Feeders
Subfeeds
Corridors
Amenity
Retail
Units
#### Fixtures
> [!failure]
> Several fixtures were erroneously based on NM cable.
I built some fixtures with \#12/3 in areas with emergency lighting
to be an unswitched hot.
Joel is having me change them to \#12/2.
#### Units
> [!failure]
> One unit type typical was missing `Area` quantities.
> Another had no takeoff.
#### Labor Plan
$$
\mathbb{E}\left[\frac{\text{Hours Per Unit}}{\text{Openings Per Unit}}\right] \approx .75~\text{Hours Per Opening}
$$
High Rise .110--.120 hr/sqft
## 2026-01-09 12:00
$$
\frac{146097}{400} = 365.2425~\text{Days Per Year}
\frac{20871}{400} = 52.1775~\text{Weeks Per Year}
\frac{6957}{1600} = 4.348125~\text{Weeks Per Month}
$$
$$
\frac{365.2425~\text{Days Per Year}}{7~\text{Days Per Week}}
= 52.1775~\text{Weeks Per Year}
$$
$$
\frac{52.1775~\text{Weeks Per Year}}{12~\text{Months Per Year}}
= 4.348125~\text{Weeks Per Month}
$$
## 2026-01-09 14:45
[[bid-price-modeling]]
Suppose a true cost model,
accounting for all relevant information available at time $t$.
$C(t)$ returns a distribution whose [scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale_parameter)
decreases with $t$, and $C(0)$ maps to a single value.
$t>0$ is time until the final payment.
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@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ tags:
- destiny/permanent/entry-point
- status/incomplete
- topic/meta
- type/encyclopedia
- type/directory
---
# TODO
@@ -17,6 +17,8 @@ of the contents of [[this-notebook]].
For other tasks and goals see [[personal-tasks]].
For tasks describable in a single imperative, see [[small-tasks]].
## Long-Running Tasks
These tasks are will never be complete,
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete
- topic/hobbies/banjo
- topic/music/banjo
- type/encyclopedia
---
# Banjo Tablatures
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete
- topic/hobbies/banjo
- topic/music/banjo
- type/encyclopedia
---
# Banjo
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@@ -12,8 +12,15 @@ title: Modeling Bid Prices Under Intrinsic Cost Uncertainty
---
# Modeling Bid Prices Under Intrinsic Cost Uncertainty
The cost of a construction project is inherently uncertain until it is completed,
therefore the most accurate model of cost is a distribution of possible costs.
Customers request bids as a single cost, however,
so a contractor must determine some function
to convert from the true cost model to a single bid price.
> [!warning]
> This text is almost entirely LLM output.
> From this point forward,
> this text is almost entirely LLM output.
> I don't intend to keep or use any significant portions of it.
Consider a construction project characterized by an intrinsic but unknown final cost $C$.
@@ -28,9 +35,12 @@ $$
C : \Omega \to [0,\infty)
$$
> Read as
> "C is a function from omega to the interval from zero to infinity, including zero."
with [distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_distribution) $\mu_C$.
The distribution $\mu_C$ summarizes all available information at the time of bidding,
The distribution $\mu_C$ accounts all available information at the time of bid,
including quantities, labor productivity uncertainty,
market conditions, subcontractor pricing variability,
and correlation structures inherent to the estimator's assumptions.
@@ -59,7 +69,7 @@ mapping a cost distribution $\mu_C$ to a **scalar** (a single value).
Examples of such functionals include:
### 1. Risk-neutral expectation
## 1. Risk-neutral expectation
$$
\Phi(\mu_C) = \mathbb{E}[C],
@@ -69,7 +79,7 @@ $$
where $\mathbb{E}[\cdot]$ denotes the [expected value](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value).
### 2. Risk-adjusted expectation
## 2. Risk-adjusted expectation
$$
\Phi(\mu_C) = \mathbb{E}[C] + \lambda\sqrt{\mathrm{Var}[C]},
@@ -80,9 +90,9 @@ $$
where $\mathrm{Var}[C]$ is the [variance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance)
and $\lambda>0$ is a risk-loading parameter.
> This mirrors mean--variance pricing common in portfolio theory.
> This mirrors mean-variance pricing common in portfolio theory.
### 3. Quantile-based pricing
## 3. Quantile-based pricing
$$
\Phi(\mu_C) = Q_p(C),
@@ -93,7 +103,7 @@ $$
where $Q_p$ is the $p$-[quantile](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantile)
of the distribution.
### 4. Utility-maximizing bid
## 4. Utility-maximizing bid
Under a bidder [utility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility) function $U$,
@@ -106,7 +116,7 @@ $$
> [$\arg\max$](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arg_max) is the value of $b$ that maximizes the expression.
***
## Conclusion
The central tension is:
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@@ -1,21 +1,19 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: Construction Methods
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete
- topic/construction
- type/encyclopedia
title: Construction Methods
- type/encyclopedia-entry
---
# Construction Methods
%%
TYPICAL EIFS ON
TYPICAL EIFS ON
CFMF ASSEMBLY
FCB ON CFMF
@@ -55,7 +53,7 @@ Those around elevator shafts form a "shear core".
> [!info] Reference
> * [Concrete Slab | Different types of Slabs in Construction](https://www.constructioncost.co/slabs-in-construction.html)
> * [Concrete Slab Types Construction, Cost, and Applications theconstructor.org](https://theconstructor.org/practical-guide/concrete-slab-construction-cost/28153/)
> * [Concrete Slab Types -- Construction, Cost, and Applications -- theconstructor.org](https://theconstructor.org/practical-guide/concrete-slab-construction-cost/28153/)
### Conventional Slab
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@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ tags:
- destiny/permanent
- exclude-from-word-count
- status/incomplete
- topic/banjo
- topic/music/banjo
- type/media/music
---
# The Cruel Mother (Traditional)
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@@ -1,3 +1,14 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: Decrease in Sigma
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/uncertain
- status/incomplete
- topic/math/statistics
- type/encyclopedia-entry
---
# Decrease in Sigma
```tikz
@@ -85,4 +96,4 @@
\end{axis}
\end{tikzpicture}
\end{document}
```
```
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@@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ as they can simply plead ignorance if the error is discovered.
I strongly oppose any project-based incentive structure for estimators.
Such a structure is at odds with the [[purpose-of-construction-estimating]],
and is an example of a [perverse incentive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perverse_incentive).
and is an example of a [[incentives#Perverse Incentive|perverse incentive]].
This behavior should be regulated by an accompanying _disincentive_ structure,
but equivalent punishment becomes unfeasible
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@@ -32,15 +32,6 @@ tags:
> If you get stuck, draw with a different pen.
> Change your tools; it may free your thinking.
## About Incentives
> [!quote] Charlie Munger
> Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.
> [!cite] Goodhart's Law
> When a measure becomes a target,
> it ceases to be a good measure.
## About Process Optimization
### "Sharpen the Axe"
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@@ -46,6 +46,7 @@ tags:
10. [[fire-alarm-takeoff]]
11. [[standalone-systems-takeoff]]
12. [[misc-budgets-takeoff]]
13. [[temp-power-takeoff]]
[[general-takeoff]]
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@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: Heavy Equipment
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete
- topic/construction
- type/encyclopedia-entry
---
# Heavy Equipment
## Swing Stage Scaffolding
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@@ -2,7 +2,11 @@
id:
aliases: []
title: "Mike Holt's Illustrated Guide to Electrical Estimating"
tags: []
tags:
- authorship/other
- destiny/permanent
- exclude-from-word-count
- status/incomplete
authors:
- Mike C. Holt
pages: 234
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@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: Incentives
tags:
- authorship/other-for-now
- destiny/permanent
- status/not-started
- type/encyclopedia-entry
---
# Incentives
> [!quote] Charlie Munger
> Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.
> [!cite] Goodhart's Law
> When a measure becomes a target,
> it ceases to be a good measure.
## Perverse Incentive
[perverse incentive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perverse_incentive)
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@@ -6,11 +6,13 @@ tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/fleeting
- status/incomplete
- topic/hobbies/banjo
- topic/music/banjo
- type/task
---
# Learn Banjo
Learn [[banjo#Scruggs Style]]
* [ ] TODO: [[learn-banjo]]
Learn [[banjo#Scruggs Style|Scruggs Style]]
[30 Days of Banjo: Absolute Beginner Banjo Course - Eli Gilbert Banjo](https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLE248-wQeZu8QaJYOzjxG5VLGN6zlIRGM)
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@@ -10,4 +10,6 @@ title: Learn Shorthand
---
# Learn Shorthand
* [ ] TODO: [[learn-shorthand]]
[[shorthand#Gregg Notehand]]
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@@ -2,7 +2,11 @@
id:
aliases: []
title: Location vs. Scope
tags: []
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete
- type/encyclopedia-entry
---
# Location vs. Scope
+3 -48
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@@ -12,10 +12,11 @@ tags:
# Misc Budgets Takeoff
* `Drawing` = "N/A"
* `System` = "EL - Electrical"
## Slab Deck
* `System` = "EL - Electrical"
Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`MISC PDI PRODUCT`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK & FEEDER`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK (NAILS, PAINT, TAPE, ETC = $250)`
* **Count** = 1
@@ -27,51 +28,5 @@ Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`MISC PDI PRODUCT`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK & FEEDER`
2. * `Area` = "Typical - Garage All Levels"
* `Phase` = "Garage"
## Temporary Power & Lighting
[[temp-power-takeoff]]
### Temp Power
1. * `Area` = "2 - Site"
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
* `System` = "TPS - Temp Power Service (Site)"
* `BidItem` = "1 - Site"
Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`TEMPORARY POWER - ... SERVICE`
* **Count** = 1
### Temp Lighting
1. * `Area` = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Building"
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
* `System` = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
* `BidItem` = "3 - Building"
`ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/...
_Garden Style:_
* Takeoff: .../`TEMPORARY POWER - T POLE (EACH)`
* **Count** = 1 per 150ft per building
_All others:_
* Takeoff: .../`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)`
* **Count** = Building GSF = Total GSF - Garage GSF
1. * `Area` = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Garage"
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
* `System` = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
* `BidItem` = "2 - Garage"
Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)`
* **Count** = Garage GSF
## Irrigation Pumps
1. * `Area` = "2 - Site"
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
* `System` = "MISC - Site Miscellaneous"
* `BidItem` = "1 - Site"
Takeoff: `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MECHANICAL CONNECTIONS (UP TO 100A)`/`PVC - LT NM FLEX (CARFLEX)`/`30A 3PH MECH CONN (200') 3/4" PVC 4#10 - CARFLEX`
* **Count** = 3
Prepend to name: "Irrigation Pumps - "
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@@ -1,3 +1,12 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: Music Theory as Code
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete
---
# Music Theory as Code
PowerShell module to assist in translating between banjo fingerings and concert notes,
@@ -254,9 +263,7 @@ classDiagram
| difMod7 | genericInterval |
| ------- | --------------- |
| 0 | Unison |
| 0 | Unison |
`mod12` pitch class
`mod7` staff position class
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete
- topic/hobbies/banjo
- topic/music/banjo
- type/encyclopedia
---
# Music Theory for Banjo
+6 -1
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@@ -2,7 +2,12 @@
id:
aliases: []
title: Music Theory
tags: []
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete
- topic/music
- type/encyclopedia
---
# Music Theory
+16
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@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: Small Tasks
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- type/directory
- status/incomplete
---
# Small Tasks
* [ ] TODO: Explain appropriate use of Tasks plugin
```tasks
```
+18 -1
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@@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ tags:
> * Grounding
> * Elevator Room
## Takeoff
## Switchgear
* `Area` = _As shown_
* `Phase` = "Switch Gear"
@@ -44,3 +44,20 @@ tags:
### Wireway
1. `ITEM DATABASE`/???
## Power Monitoring
> [!info] Also Known As
> * Submetering
1. [[distribution-designations#Submeters/Power Monitors]]
2. ==1" to 1-1/2" EMT riser==
* [ ] TODO: Establish Power Monitoring riser takeoff procedure with Joel and document
## Generator
* [ ] TODO: Add Generator breakdowns to script
1. [[distribution-designations#Generators]]
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@@ -28,4 +28,4 @@ Put location, quantity, and type on OneNote
1. Garage Homeruns
2. Luminaire in Amenity Areas
3. Ensure appropriate breakdowns
* Site lighting in System "FML - Site Fixtures Material & Labor"
* Site lighting in `System` = "FML - Site Fixtures Material & Labor"
+66
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@@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: Temporary Power & Lighting Takeoff
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- occupational/takeoff
- status/draft
- type/guide
---
# Temporary Power & Lighting Takeoff
## Temp Power
> [!info]
> Includes
> * Crane power
1. * `Area` = "2 - Site"
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
* `System` = "TPS - Temp Power Service (Site)"
* `BidItem` = "1 - Site"
Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`TEMPORARY POWER - ... SERVICE`
* **Count** = 1
## Temp Lighting
1. * `Area` = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Building"
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
* `System` = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
* `BidItem` = "3 - Building"
`ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/...
_Garden Style:_
* Takeoff: .../`TEMPORARY POWER - T POLE (EACH)`[^1]
* **Count** = 1 per 150ft per building
_All others:_
* Takeoff: .../`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)`
* **Count** = Building GSF (Total GSF - Garage GSF)
2. * `Area` = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Garage"
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
* `System` = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
* `BidItem` = "2 - Garage"
Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)`
* **Count** = Garage GSF
[^1]: Field constructed assembly of receptacles.
Sometimes called a "spider box".
## Irrigation Pumps
1. * `Area` = "2 - Site"
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
* `System` = "MISC - Site Miscellaneous"
* `BidItem` = "1 - Site"
Takeoff: `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MECHANICAL CONNECTIONS (UP TO 100A)`/`PVC - LT NM FLEX (CARFLEX)`/`30A 3PH MECH CONN (200') 3/4" PVC 4#10 - CARFLEX`
* **Count** = 3
Prepend to name: "Irrigation Pumps - "
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@@ -2,7 +2,13 @@
id:
aliases: []
title: Uncertainty in Construction Estimating
tags: []
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete
- topic/estimating
- topic/risk
- type/cross-topic
---
# Uncertainty in Construction Estimating
@@ -14,6 +20,7 @@ and [[risk-management-for-construction-estimating]]
for strategy based on such uncertainty.
%%
## TALK
What do I mean that project cost is uncertain until the last invoice?
@@ -59,4 +66,4 @@ of tying up an estimator who could otherwise be starting a new project.
In many cases, the [[utility]] of doubled throughput
far outweighs the increased risk of individual bids.
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