vault backup: 2025-12-13 17:58:54

uncertainty.md

@@ -11,6 +11,16 @@ title: Uncertainty
 ---
 # Uncertainty
 
+%%
+
+## TALK
+
+## TODO
+
+
+
+%%
+
 The term "uncertainty" refers to the possibility of multiple outcomes.
 
 ## Information
@@ -25,7 +35,7 @@ In statistical inference and [[strategy]],
 > is the amount a decision maker would be willing to pay
 > for information prior to making a decision.
 
-Suppose information $I$ is available to a decision maker
+Suppose information $I$ is available to a decision maker.
 Consider these two scenarios:
 
 1. the decision maker does not purchase the information
@@ -45,9 +55,8 @@ V(I) &= P(D)|I - P(D) \\
 \end{align*}
 $$
 
-> [!info] Expectation Notation
-> When forecasting, the payout of decisions is unknown,
-> thus
+When forecasting, the payout of decisions is unknown,
+thus
 
 $$
 \mathbb{E}\left[V(I)\right] = \mathbb{E}\left[P(D)\right] - \mathbb{E}\left[P(D)|I\right]