vault backup: 2025-08-07 15:12:16

accubid-setup.md

@@ -7,6 +7,14 @@ tags:
 ---
 # Accubid Setup
 
+## Info
+
+### Automation
+
+It is likely infeasible to automate LiveCount and Accubid project creation.
+However, a script could launch the apps with a procedure,
+setting the clipboard.
+
 ## Sequence
 
 ### Create LiveCount Project
@@ -27,6 +35,10 @@ Refresh the page and open the newly created project.
 
 ```
 # Extract drawings to ".\Trimble Connect (Plans)"
+
+mv '*FIRE ALARM*.pdf' '.\Fire Alarm\'
+mv '*POWER PLAN*.pdf' '.\Power\'
+mv '*SITE*.pdf' '.\Site\'
 ```
 
 Upload extracted drawings to LiveCount

calibration-questions.md

@@ -0,0 +1,126 @@
+---
+id:
+aliases: []
+tags: []
+---
+# Calibration Questions
+
+## Examples
+
+### Boolean
+
+> The melting point of tin is higher than the melting point of aluminum.
+
+> In English, the word "quality" is more frequently used that the word "speed".
+
+reductive (used more frequently where?)
+
+> Any male pig is referred to as a hog.
+
+reductive (referred to by whom?)
+
+> California's giant sequoia trees are named for an early 19th century leader of the Cherokee Indians.
+
+reductive
+
+> The Model T was the first car produced by Henry Ford.
+
+reductive (Henry Ford didn't produce cars)
+
+> When rolling 2 dice, a roll of 7 is more likely than a 3.
+
+facile
+
+> No one has ever been reported to have been hit by any object that fell from space.
+
+reductive (reported by whom?)
+
+> Sir Christopher Wren was a British anthropologist.
+
+> Pakistan does not border Russia.
+
+unnecessary negative form, otherwise good.
+
+> The Navy won the first Army-Navy football game.
+
+should specify the official event name, otherwise good.
+
+> The paperback version of the book "The Da Vinci Code", as of July 2007, still ranks in the top 500 bestselling books on Amazon.
+
+obtuse phrasing, dated topic, otherwise good
+
+> Italian has more words than any other language.
+
+reductive (what is a word? what dialect?)
+
+> The month of August is named after a Greek god.
+
+borderline facile, reductive
+
+> The deepest ocean trench is deeper than the Grand Canyon.
+
+facile
+
+> Abraham Lincoln was the first president born in a log cabin.
+
+deceptive phrasing
+
+> As of July of 2007, more people search Google for  "Harry Potter" than "Hillary Clinton" (according to GoogleTrends).
+
+obtuse phrasing, dated topic, otherwise good
+
+> The population of Alabama is higher than the population of Arizona.
+
+borderline facile, deceptive phrasing
+
+> No category 5 hurricane hit the US in 2004.
+
+> The UK is among the top 10 largest economies in the world (by GDP).
+
+> The movie Forest Gump has grossed more to date than E.T. The Extra Terrestrial.
+
+obtuse phrasing, dated topic, otherwise good
+
+### Interval
+
+> What percentage of bronze is typically made of copper?
+
+reductive
+
+> How many countries have at least one McDonald's?
+
+As of when?
+
+> How many employees did eBay have in the first quarter of 2006
+> What was the population of Miami (within the city limits, not the entire metropolitan area) in 1990?
+> How many casualties did the French suffer in the Battle of Waterloo?
+> What is the range in miles of a Minuteman Missile?
+> What is the percentage of IT jobs in the US were unfilled in 1997?
+> The Supremes' (with Diana Ross) song "Stop! In the Name of Love" was how long? (minutes, seconds)
+> How many undergraduates attended Cambridge in 1990?
+> If you could jump 50 feet straight up into the air, how many seconds would you be airborne before you landed?
+> How many gallons are in a bushel (they are both measures of volume)?
+> How many sovereign rulers has England had in the last thousand years?
+> If the air temperature was 5 degrees below zero (Fahrenheit) and the wind speed was 15 mph, what would the temperature adjusted for wind-chill be?
+> Average cost of testing in software development is what percentage of total project costs?
+> On average, if a software development project was projected to take 17 months, it actually takes how many months?
+> How many meters tall is the Sears Tower?
+> How many gold medals did Jesse Owens win at the 1936 Berlin Olympics?
+> In 2005, the average combined MPG for all US cars and light trucks on the road was how much?
+> The average house in the United States uses how many gallons of water per day?
+> What was the average price in the United States of a house sold in 2001?
+
+## Writing Good Calibration Questions
+
+A good calibration question should not feel like it could be a "trick" question.
+
+Definitions/terminology are _always_ contentious,
+questions based on them always feel deceptive.
+
+Interval "questions" should describe the quantity
+rather than phrase it as a question.
+
+## Strategy for Answering Calibration Questions
+
+Confidence should never be less than probability of picking randomly
+(50% for true)

feeders.md

@@ -2,7 +2,6 @@
 id: feeders
 aliases: []
 tags:
-  - occupational
   - occupational/systems/feeders
 ---
 # Feeders
@@ -80,13 +79,7 @@ Locate:
 
 #### Sleeving
 
-Provide sleeves for all feeder conduits passing through floors.
+See [[sleeving]].
-
-`ITEM DATABASE`/`HILTI`/`CAST-IN DEVICE CP 680-...`
-
-* Concrete => P (Plastic - Combustible)
-* Wood Framed => M (Metal - Non-Combustible)
-
 
 #### Grounding
 

grounding.md

@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+---
+id: grounding
+aliases: []
+tags:
+  - occupational/systems/feeders
+---
+# Grounding
+

project-setup.md

@@ -8,12 +8,20 @@ next: setup-accubid
 ---
 # Project Setup
 
-## Create Project Folder
+## Create ConEst Project Folder
 
 ```pwsh
 # Copy template folder to 
 Set-Location "\\EgnyteDrive\Shared\Estimating\7 ConEst Team\Projects\ConEst 2025\"
 Copy-Item ".\z.Template Folder\" ".\$region\$projectName - $state, $buildingType"
+
+# TODO: Create shortcut in ~/Jobs/$ConEstProjectFolderName
+```
+
+## Create Shortcut Folder
+
+```pwsh
+# TODO:
 ```
 
 ## Download Project Documents
@@ -29,7 +37,19 @@ Set-Location ".\$region\$projectName"
 
 ## Create Unit Matrix
 
-See Architecturals
+See Architectural set.
+
+The Unit Matrix shows quantities for each typical
+
+> [!info] Also Known As
+> * "Guestroom Matrix"
+> * "Key Matrix"
+> * "Room Matrix"
+> * "Unit Mix"
+
+There is no standard format for these matrices.
+
+"QQ" is sometimes used as shorthand for double queen.
 
 ## Create Area Breakout
 

sleeving.md

@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+
+---
+id: sleeving
+aliases: []
+tags:
+  - occupational/systems
+---
+# Sleeving
+
+## Info
+
+Provide sleeves for all feeder conduits passing through floors.
+
+`ITEM DATABASE`/`HILTI`/`CAST-IN DEVICE CP 680-...`
+
+* Concrete => P (Plastic - Combustible)
+* Wood Framed => M (Metal - Non-Combustible)
+
+## Sequence

the-failure-of-risk-management.md

@@ -12,6 +12,14 @@ by Douglas W. Hubbard
 
 ## Key Takeaways
 
+### Definition of Risk
+
+As it is most commonly understood,
+risk _always_ implies a negative impact.
+
+For boolean cases,
+risk can be represented as a vector of **probability** and **loss**.
+
 ### Qualitative Metrics Must Be Avoided
 
 Qualitative risk analysis
@@ -44,6 +52,8 @@ It describes the process of "calibration"
 by which people can be trained to compensate for this bias
 and make predictions far more accurately.
 
+See [[calibration-questions]] for more.
+
 Experts tend to be good at creating heuristics,
 but do not apply them consistently in practice.
 
@@ -55,125 +65,8 @@ Chapter 13 introduces the [Brier Score](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_scor
 as a method of evaluating the performance of an estimator,
 evaluated as the mean squared error of their forecasts.
 
-#### The Difficulty of Calibration
+> [!example] p. 198
-
+> Models based on expert opinion consistently outperform the same experts.
-##### Boolean Examples
-
-> The melting point of tin is higher than the melting point of aluminum.
-
-> In English, the word “quality” is more frequently used that the word “speed”.
-
-reductive (used more frequently where?)
-
-> Any male pig is referred to as a hog.
-
-reductive (referred to by whom?)
-
-> California’s giant sequoia trees are named for an early 19th century leader of the Cherokee Indians.
-
-reductive
-
-> The Model T was the first car produced by Henry Ford.
-
-reductive (Henry Ford didn't produce cars)
-
-> When rolling 2 dice, a roll of 7 is more likely than a 3.
-
-facile
-
-> No one has ever been reported to have been hit by any object that fell from space.
-
-reductive (reported by whom?)
-
-> Sir Christopher Wren was a British anthropologist.
-
-> Pakistan does not border Russia.
-
-unnecessary negative form, otherwise good.
-
-> The Navy won the first Army-Navy football game.
-
-should specify the official event name, otherwise good.
-
-> The paperback version of the book “The Da Vinci Code”, as of July 2007, still ranks in the top 500 bestselling books on Amazon.
-
-obtuse phrasing, dated topic, otherwise good
-
-> Italian has more words than any other language.
-
-reductive (what is a word? what dialect?)
-
-> The month of August is named after a Greek god.
-
-borderline facile, reductive
-
-> The deepest ocean trench is deeper than the Grand Canyon.
-
-facile
-
-> Abraham Lincoln was the first president born in a log cabin.
-
-deceptive phrasing
-
-> As of July of 2007, more people search Google for  “Harry Potter” than “Hillary Clinton” (according to GoogleTrends).
-
-obtuse phrasing, dated topic, otherwise good
-
-> The population of Alabama is higher than the population of Arizona.
-
-borderline facile, deceptive phrasing
-
-> No category 5 hurricane hit the US in 2004.
-
-> The UK is among the top 10 largest economies in the world (by GDP).
-
-> The movie Forest Gump has grossed more to date than E.T. The Extra Terrestrial.
-
-obtuse phrasing, dated topic, otherwise good
-
-##### Interval Examples
-
-> What percentage of bronze is typically made of copper?
-
-reductive
-
-> How many countries have at least one McDonald’s?
-
-As of when?
-
-> How many employees did eBay have in the first quarter of 2006
-> What was the population of Miami (within the city limits, not the entire metropolitan area) in 1990?
-> How many casualties did the French suffer in the Battle of Waterloo?
-> What is the range in miles of a Minuteman Missile?
-> What is the percentage of IT jobs in the US were unfilled in 1997?
-> The Supremes’ (with Diana Ross) song “Stop! In the Name of Love” was how long? (minutes, seconds)
-> How many undergraduates attended Cambridge in 1990?
-> If you could jump 50 feet straight up into the air, how many seconds would you be airborne before you landed?
-> How many gallons are in a bushel (they are both measures of volume)?
-> How many sovereign rulers has England had in the last thousand years?
-> If the air temperature was 5 degrees below zero (Fahrenheit) and the wind speed was 15 mph, what would the temperature adjusted for wind-chill be?
-> Average cost of testing in software development is what percentage of total project costs?
-> On average, if a software development project was projected to take 17 months, it actually takes how many months?
-> How many meters tall is the Sears Tower?
-> How many gold medals did Jesse Owens win at the 1936 Berlin Olympics?
-> In 2005, the average combined MPG for all US cars and light trucks on the road was how much?
-> The average house in the United States uses how many gallons of water per day?
-> What was the average price in the United States of a house sold in 2001?
-
-##### Writing Good Calibration Questions
-
-A good calibration question should not feel like it could be a "trick" question.
-
-Definitions/terminology are *always* contentious,
-questions based on them always feel deceptive.
-
-Interval "questions" should describe the quantity
-rather than phrase it as a question.
-
-##### Strategy for Answering Calibration Questions
-
-Confidence should never be less than probability of picking randomly
-(50% for true)
 
 ### Luck Looks Like Skill
 
@@ -189,8 +82,25 @@ to overvalue competence and undervalue luck
 in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments
 as the "Red Baron effect".
 
+How many success stories are simply cases of winning a coin flipping tournament?
+
+### Qualitative Labels are Problematic
+
+> [!example] p. 170
+> Experts do not agree on the bounds of terms expressing probability.
+> "Likely" vs. "Very Likely"
+
+> [!example] p. 182
+> risk matrix type bucketing tends to inflate the significance of small risks.
+
 ### There's Always Enough Data
 
+> [!quote] Voltaire
+> Perfect is the enemy of good.
+
+> [!quote] Jon Von Neumann
+> The truth is much too complicated to allow anything but approximations.
+
 Hubbard challenges the popular rebuttal
 that any industry is so niche that
 data sufficient for quantitative models
@@ -200,6 +110,27 @@ does not exist.
 > ...the belief that unless two things are identical in every way,
 > nothing learned from one can be applied to the other.
 
+### Value of Information
+
+* Expected Value of Information (EVI)
+* Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL)
+
+$$
+\text{EVI} = \text{EOL} - \text{EOL}|I
+$$
+
+EOL translates well to continuous probabilities.
+
+### Single Point Estimates are Problematic
+
+> [!example] p. 232
+> Hubbard describes a case in the oil industry
+> where decent estimating is simplified to the point of serious error
+> (collapsing distributions to a single point for "accounting purposes")
+> leading to the widespread underestimating of Earth's oil reserves.
+
+The case closely mirrors construction estimating.
+
 ## Mentioned Topics and Abbreviations
 
 * Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

units.md

@@ -13,6 +13,7 @@ tags:
 
 > [!info] Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) Terms
 > * hearing impaired (HI or H.I.)
+> * hearing impaired communication (HC or H.C.)
 > * mobility features (MF or M.F.)
 > * accessible (Acc.)
 >   * usually refers to mobility features.