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fooled-by-randomness.md

@@ -15,7 +15,13 @@ This is the commentary companion to [[taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness]].
 
 ## Critiques
 
-### "Logic Without Statistics"
+### Intellectual Insecurity
+
+So far I've gotten the distinct impression
+that statistics hurt Taleb's head,
+and he is intimidated by academics.
+
+#### "Logic Without Statistics"
 
 FbR uses few citations,
 relying on the strength of Taleb's logic alone, by his own stating.
@@ -38,7 +44,20 @@ when _Taleb_ is wrong, I question the foundation of all his arguments.
 Less politely, I wonder why I'm listening to him just make up justifications
 for what he already believed.
 
-### Qualitative Probability
+So far I'm lead to believe what Taleb means by "logic"
+is only anecdotes and aphorisms.
+He wants to be Plato, but he comes off as "this came to me in a dream".
+
+> [!quote] Chapter 2? (pp.)
+> Scientists can not meaningfully describe the probability of black swans
+> because it would require observing the future.
+
+> [!quote] Chapter 2? (pp.)
+> Accountants don't care about probability,
+> if they did they wouldn't be accountants,
+> and if they were they would make an error on your tax returns.
+
+#### Qualitative Probability
 
 Taleb loses me in the introduction
 when he states that he defines _probability_ qualitatively.
@@ -47,3 +66,56 @@ when he states that he defines _probability_ qualitatively.
 of the terms **uncertainty**, **probability**, and **risk**,
 
 Later it's clear he what he means by probability is **uncertainty**.
+
+> [!quote] Chapter 2? (pp.)
+> Certainty is something likely to occur in the largest number of possible worlds,
+> uncertainty concerns what is unlikely to occur in many possible worlds.
+
+#### The Black Swan
+
+**The black swan**, or the unforeseen event,
+is the idea that no quantitative risk management is possible
+because of the possibility of a single loss
+that would negate all previous gains.
+
+Hubbard points out that Taleb's position is paradoxical.
+
+> [!quote] [[hubbard_2020_failure#A Note About Black Swans]]
+> ...he is assessing the validity of using historical examples
+> by using _historical examples_.
+
+Besides its credibility, the suggestion reeks of intellectual insecurity.
+It is very convenient to dismiss the whole of statistics based on logic alone,
+much more so to dismiss the tests used to prove the validity of statistical methods.
+
+### False Lucky Fools
+
+Taleb repeatedly conflates legitimate lucky fools
+with people with ideas he doesn't like.
+
+> [[hubbard_2020_failure]]
+> does a much better job of explaining "lucky fools"
+> (see [[the-failure-of-risk-management#Red Baron Effect]]).
+
+#### Nero Tulip vs. John
+
+Taleb uses the story of Nero Tulip,
+an incredibly cautious investor,
+and his success over his risk-loving rival John
+to promote the idea that modern quantitative methods
+(as John is presumed to represent)
+are inherently flawed.
+
+One of many problems with this presentation
+is that John is described as young, inexperienced,
+and of low intelligence.
+John is a typical lucky fool:
+there is no indication that he has any strategy,
+much less that he is practicing modern portfolio theory.
+
+If I mistake Taleb's intent,
+and the story was only meant to convey
+that experienced, conscientious, and cautious decision-making
+can lead a person to success,
+then I'm not sure who he's arguing against.
+