ZaneMeyers/zmVault
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull Requests Actions Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity

vault backup: 2025-12-15 16:59:22

Browse Source
This commit is contained in:
Zane Meyers
2025-12-15 16:59:22 -05:00
parent 61dad623bf
commit a4b0c9be91
17 changed files with 308 additions and 105 deletions
Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files
1935_capek_pov-of-a-cat.md → capek_1935_pov-of-a-cat.md
View File
consolidate-estimating-thoughts.md
+7
View File
@@ -15,6 +15,13 @@ title: Consolidate Estimating Thoughts
My notes on construction estimating
are currently disparate, disjointed, and redundant
Remove estimating-specific content from irrelevant notes.
Create and use cross-topic notes for complex thoughts:
* [[actuarial-science-for-construction-estimating]]
* [[risk-management-for-construction-estimating]]
* [[auction-theory-for-construction-estimating]]
## Relevant Notes
![[estimating-thoughts.base]]
favorite-quotes.md
+7
View File
@@ -66,6 +66,13 @@ it's usually to justify second definition [yak shaving](https://en.wiktionary.or
I like the story because it's well known
and easily interpreted as an [optimization problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimization_problem).
## About Learning
> [!quote] [[hubbard_2020_failure#Why It's Hard To Know What Works]]
> The placebo effect might not be as persistent
> if it were easier to learn from our experience...
> But learning is not a given in any environment.
## About Originality
> [!quote] Brian Eno, _A Year With Swollen Appendices_, p. 67
fire-alarm-takeoff.md
+2
View File
@@ -17,6 +17,8 @@ title: Fire Alarm Takeoff
> [!info]
> See [[fire-alarm]] for information about fire alarm systems.
* `System` = "FA - Fire Alarm"
## Assembly Selection
Free Air < PVC in Slab < EMT
fixture-designations.md
+7 -2
View File
@@ -14,6 +14,8 @@ title: Fixture Designations
This note details creation of fixture designations
for use in [[fixtures-takeoff]].
[[luminaire-types]]
## Naming
### Format
@@ -49,7 +51,7 @@ Use empty designations to separate phases.
|:------------ | ----------:|
| Paddle Fan | 1.5 hr/ea. |
| Pendant | 1-4 hr/ea. |
| Strip/Cove | 0.5 hr/6ft |
| Tape | 0.5 hr/6ft |
| Site Poles | 1.5 hr/ea. |
| Festoon | 2.0 hr/ea. |
| All Others | 1.0 hr/ea. |
@@ -111,7 +113,10 @@ Use 1 homerun for every 3 circuits in Garage
## Surface Mount
> [!info] Surface Mount Fixtures
> * Wall Mount (Sconce)
> * Wall Mount
> * Wall Pack
> * Sconce
> * Swing Arm
> * Pendant
> * Linear
> * Tape
fooled-by-randomness.md
+49
View File
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: _Fooled by Randomness_
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/complete
- topic/risk
- type/media-commentary
---
# _Fooled by Randomness_
This is the commentary companion to [[taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness]].
## Critiques
### "Logic Without Statistics"
FbR uses few citations,
relying on the strength of Taleb's logic alone, by his own stating.
Taleb argues this strategy is perfectly legitimate, which is _true_,
but it does not follow that it makes for the most robust argument.
In recent editions of the text, Taleb claims that his editors have implored him
to provide figures, graphs, studies, etc. as---_he agrees_---would be expected
for any similar book on statistical phenomena, but he refuses.
I don't find this approach charming at all,
especially considering how critical Taleb is of demagogues.
Juxtaposing FbR with [[hubbard_2020_failure]],
which is a more traditional work of statistical thought,
well researched, and with a thorough bibliography,
Taleb's arguments are considerably less satisfying.
When Hubbard is wrong, it's clear his interpretation is flawed in that instance,
when _Taleb_ is wrong, I question the foundation of all his arguments.
Less politely, I wonder why I'm listening to him just make up justifications
for what he already believed.
### Qualitative Probability
Taleb loses me in the introduction
when he states that he defines _probability_ qualitatively.
[[hubbard_2020_failure]] gives a comprehensive history
of the terms **uncertainty**, **probability**, and **risk**,
Later it's clear he what he means by probability is **uncertainty**.
individual-ability.md
+3
View File
@@ -44,4 +44,7 @@ familiarity requires maintenance.
## TALK
Expertise as heuristics and biases
[Daniel Kahneman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman)
%%
leslie-et-al_1968_gregg-notehand.md
+1
View File
@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ title: Gregg Notehand
tags:
- authorship/other
- destiny/permanent
- exclude-from-word-count
- status/incomplete
- type/media/book
authors:
lilypond.md
+2 -2
View File
@@ -22,11 +22,11 @@ with syntax similar to [[latex]].
2. Restart Obsidian
```lily
```lily
\score{
\relative c' {a}
\layout {}
}
```
```
[Beginner Manual](https://lilypond.org/doc/v2.23/Documentation/learning/index)
luminaire-types.md
+72
View File
@@ -0,0 +1,72 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: Luminaire Types
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete
- topic/construction/electrical
- type/encyclopedia
---
# Luminaire Types
## Ambiguous Terms
* Linear
* Cove
* Strip
## Wall Packs
## Sconces
## Swing Arm Fixtures
## Pendant Mount
> [!info] Also Known As
> * chandelier
## Track Lighting
## Tape Lighting
Also called "cove" or "strip" lighting,
however those terms are less specific
and potentially confusing.
## Recessed Downlight
> [!info] Also Known As
> * can light
> * hi hat
> * puck light
## Troffer
## Wall Wash/Wall Grazer
## Undercabinet Fixture
## Paddle Fan
## Handrail Fixture
## Pole Light
## Festoon Lighting
> [!info] Also Known As
> * string lighting
> * market lighting
> * catenary lighting
## Other Fixture Types
* Step Light
* Bollard
* Up-light
* In-grade up-light
* Fixtures built into cabanas/pergolas
* FAA Lighting
multi-family-dwellings.md
+1 -1
View File
@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ title: Multifamily Dwellings
> * hearing impaired communication (HC or H.C.)
> * mobility features (MF or M.F.)
> * accessible (Acc.)
> * usually refers to mobility features.
> * usually refers to mobility features.
### Are Hotels Multifamily Dwellings?
risk-management-for-construction-estimating.md
View File
risk-management.md
+1 -1
View File
@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ even those not commonly labeled as such.
Note that risk management and actuarial science
have significant overlap in their common definitions.
For the purposes of [[this-notebook]],
legitimate mathematical methods for quantifying risk
legitimate mathematical methods for _quantifying_ risk
fall under [[actuarial-science]].
Other (qualitative) methods
as well as [[strategy|decisions]] based on methods of either type
risk.md
+1 -1
View File
@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ as understood by laymen and mathematicians.
2. If [[#In Cost Estimation]]'s content needs to remain,
and it isn't suited for [[actuarial-science-for-construction-estimating]],
another cross-topic [[risk-management-for-construction-estimation]] will be necessary.
another cross-topic [[risk-management-for-construction-estimating]] will be necessary.
I suspect that with some edits it will be most appropriate for [[actuarial-science]].
%%
taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness.md
+28
View File
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: "Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets"
tags:
- authorship/other
- destiny/permanent
- exclude-from-word-count
- topic/math/statistics
- topic/risk
- type/media/book
author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
identifiers:
- isbn:0-8129-7521-9
- oclc:60349198
language: English
publisher: Random House
year: 2001
---
# Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
%%
This note, with the exception of comments like this one
(reserved for notes on transcription)
consists only of content from the text.
For commentary see the companion
[[fooled-by-randomness]].
%%
the-failure-of-risk-management.md
+98 -78
View File
@@ -62,6 +62,83 @@ are _deleterious_ to their intended purpose,
in contradiction to the common refrain
that they are "better than nothing".
### Qualitative Labels are Problematic
> [!example] p. 170 (pp.)
> Experts do not agree on the bounds of terms expressing probability
> (e.g. "Likely" vs. "Very Likely").
> [!example] p. 182 (pp.)
> risk matrix type bucketing
> tends to inflate the significance of small risks.
### Expert Opinion Must Be ~~Adjusted~~
Expert opinion is valuable, but its weaknesses must be compensated for.
%% TODO: %%
Experts tend to be good at creating heuristics,
but do not apply them consistently in practice.
> [!example]
> Chapter 7 describes a study where individual experts
> were shown to estimate risk differently for identical cases.
> [!example] p. 198
> Models based on expert opinion consistently outperform the same experts.
#### Estimator Calibration
The book details the statistically observable tendency for people
to underestimate risk and to be overconfident in their beliefs.
It describes the process of "calibration"
by which people can be trained to compensate for this bias
and make predictions far more accurately.
See [[estimator-calibration]] for more.
Chapter 13 introduces the [Brier Score](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score)
as a method of evaluating the performance of an estimator,
equal to the mean squared error of their forecasts.
### Luck Looks Like Skill
> [!cite] Chapter 7 p.154 (pp.)
> Hubbard describes a study which concluded that,
> given the number of German pilots and their overall victory/defeat figures,
> there was a ~30% chance an individual would achieve The Red Baron's record
> _by luck alone_.
He later refers to the popular tendency
to overvalue competence and undervalue luck
in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments
as the "Red Baron effect".
This the unstated other half of the **law of large numbers**:
improbable events become likely with increased sampling.
> How many success stories
> are simply cases of winning a coin flipping tournament?
### There's Always Enough Data
> [!quote] Voltaire
> Perfect is the enemy of good.
> [!quote] Jon Von Neumann
> The truth is much too complicated to allow anything but approximations.
Hubbard challenges the popular rebuttal
that any industry is so niche that
data sufficient for quantitative models
does not exist.
> [!quote] Fallacy of Close Analogy (p.236)
> ...the belief that unless two things are identical in every way,
> nothing learned from one can be applied to the other.
### Utility as a Measure of Value
Expected Value (Probability × Magnitude)
@@ -116,82 +193,6 @@ $$
where $Pr$ is the probability of Payoff.
### Expert Opinion Must Be ~~Adjusted~~
Expert opinion is valuable, but its weaknesses must be compensated for.
%% TODO: %%
Experts tend to be good at creating heuristics,
but do not apply them consistently in practice.
> [!example]
> Chapter 7 describes a study where individual experts
> were shown to estimate risk differently for identical cases.
> [!example] p. 198
> Models based on expert opinion consistently outperform the same experts.
#### Estimator Calibration
The book details the statistically observable tendency for people
to underestimate risk and to be overconfident in their beliefs.
It describes the process of "calibration"
by which people can be trained to compensate for this bias
and make predictions far more accurately.
See [[estimator-calibration]] for more.
Chapter 13 introduces the [Brier Score](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score)
as a method of evaluating the performance of an estimator,
equal to the mean squared error of their forecasts.
### Luck Looks Like Skill
> [!cite] Chapter 7 p.154 (pp.)
> Hubbard describes a study which concluded that,
> given the number of German pilots and their overall victory/defeat figures,
> there was a ~30% chance an individual would achieve The Red Baron's record
> _by luck alone_.
He later refers to the popular tendency
to overvalue competence and undervalue luck
in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments
as the "Red Baron effect".
This the unstated other half of the **law of large numbers**:
improbable events become likely with increased sampling.
> How many success stories
> are simply cases of winning a coin flipping tournament?
### Qualitative Labels are Problematic
> [!example] p. 170 (pp.)
> Experts do not agree on the bounds of terms expressing probability
> (e.g. "Likely" vs. "Very Likely").
> [!example] p. 182 (pp.)
> risk matrix type bucketing
> tends to inflate the significance of small risks.
### There's Always Enough Data
> [!quote] Voltaire
> Perfect is the enemy of good.
> [!quote] Jon Von Neumann
> The truth is much too complicated to allow anything but approximations.
Hubbard challenges the popular rebuttal
that any industry is so niche that
data sufficient for quantitative models
does not exist.
> [!quote] Fallacy of Close Analogy (p.236)
> ...the belief that unless two things are identical in every way,
> nothing learned from one can be applied to the other.
### Value of Information
* Expected Value of Information (EVI)
@@ -211,7 +212,7 @@ EOL translates well to continuous probabilities.
> (collapsing distributions to a single point for "accounting purposes")
> leading to the widespread underestimating of Earth's oil reserves.
The case closely mirrors construction estimating.
The case closely mirrors [[construction-estimating]].
## Critiques
@@ -265,7 +266,26 @@ throughout the book and just pages earlier.
Hubbard makes a strong case against qualitative risk management,
but I found his attempts to introduce alternatives wanting.
## _Loss Models_
## In the Context of Other Works
### _Fooled by Randomness_
[[hubbard_2020_failure]] is in many ways a response
to [[taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness]].
I'm willing to give [[#_Exsupero Ursus_]] much more slack
after reading Taleb's introduction.
See [[fooled-by-randomness#Qualitative Probability]].
Unfortunately for Hubbard, FbR is about why math is dumb,
and so will always be more popular than tFoRM,
which is about why math is good, actually.
In retrospect it's interesting that the one point the books share
is that [[#Luck Looks Like Skill]],
which is Taleb's basis for why quantitative methods are flawed.
### _Loss Models_
[[hubbard_2020_failure]] is obviously inspired in some part
by [[klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models]] and its prior editions,
units-takeoff.md
+29 -20
View File
@@ -19,8 +19,6 @@ title: Unit Takeoff
> [!info]
> See [[multi-family-dwellings]].
## Takeoff
> [!tip] Preparing for Unit Takeoff
> Units generally have very little variation.
> It is usually best to copy-paste takeoffs
@@ -38,7 +36,7 @@ title: Unit Takeoff
> and creating them new for each unit,
> since the types required can vary greatly between units.
### Load Centers
## Load Centers
| Rating | Assembly |
| ------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
@@ -47,13 +45,17 @@ title: Unit Takeoff
Include terminations per [[switchgear]].
### Shade Control
## Fixtures
### VTAC Units
[[fixtures-takeoff]]
## Shade Control
## VTAC Units
Used in lieu of individual split systems.
### Dedicated Circuit Receptacles
## Dedicated Circuit Receptacles
> [!quote] Joel Jansen 2025-11-11, pp.
>
@@ -68,7 +70,7 @@ Used in lieu of individual split systems.
> match the receptacle configuration shown on the plans
> (i.e. simplex to simplex, duplex to duplex).
### Air Sealing
## Air Sealing
* LEED Silver
* Mid-Atlantic jobs
@@ -78,7 +80,7 @@ Used in lieu of individual split systems.
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`UNITS - MC CABLE ASSEMBLIES`/`GENERAL ASSEMBLIES - METAL STUD`/`UNIT MISC ITEMS - MC - ADJUST ACCORDINGLY`
### Islands
## Islands
Use 1 "SLAB / DECK" receptacle for every 2 circuits in the island.
@@ -86,36 +88,37 @@ Use 1 "SLAB / DECK" receptacle for every 2 circuits in the island.
Use standard MC assemblies for remaining devices.
### Bidet Toilets, Whirlpool Baths, etc.
## Bidet Toilets, Whirlpool Baths, etc.
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MECHANICAL CONNECTIONS (UP TO 100A)`/`PVC - LT NM FLEX (CARFLEX)`/`20A 1PH MECH CONN (100') 3/4" PVC 3#12 - CARFLEX`
### "High-Lows"
## "High-Lows"
Empty in-wall pass through
from credenza location to behind television location.
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`TELECOM SYSTEMS`/`UNIT DATA - TELECOM`/`HIGH-LOW - TV SCOOP 1 1/2" ENT - NO CABLE`
Eaton 35M2W
> ![Eaton 35M2W|250x250](https://www.eaton.com/mdmfiles/PDM19433863/35M2W_C/500x500_72dpi)
> Eaton 35M2W
### Telecom Homeruns
## Telecom Homeruns
#### Residential
### Residential
Included in MSDE.
#### Key
### Key
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`TELECOM SYSTEMS`/`BOH AMENITY ASSEMBLIES`/...
Adjust cable length as needed.
### Fire Alarm Devices
## Fire Alarm Devices
#### Residential
### Residential
##### Smoke Detectors & CO Detectors
* `System` = "EL - Electrical"
#### Smoke Detectors & CO Detectors
For smoke detectors and CO detectors where 120V (most common):
@@ -125,8 +128,14 @@ For ADA units:
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`UNITS - MC CABLE ASSEMBLIES`/`GENERAL ASSEMBLIES - METAL STUD`/`UNIT SMOKE DETECTOR / VISUAL SIGNAL ...`
##### Additional Signaling Devices
#### Additional Signaling Devices
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INDICATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`UNIT HORN/STROBE - ...`
#### Key
### Key
* `System` = "FA - Fire Alarm"
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`... DEVICES WITH WIRE - FREE AIR`
[[fire-alarm-takeoff]]