vault backup: 2025-12-16 16:54:09

the-failure-of-risk-management.md

@@ -105,6 +105,16 @@ equal to the mean squared error of their forecasts.
 
 ### Luck Looks Like Skill
 
+Individually improbable events
+become likely with increased sampling.
+
+This the unstated other half of the **law of large numbers**
+
+> How many success stories
+> are simply cases of winning a coin flipping tournament?
+
+#### Red Baron Effect
+
 > [!cite] Chapter 7 p.154 (pp.)
 > Hubbard describes a study which concluded that,
 > given the number of German pilots and their overall victory/defeat figures,
@@ -116,12 +126,6 @@ to overvalue competence and undervalue luck
 in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments
 as the "Red Baron effect".
 
-This the unstated other half of the **law of large numbers**:
-improbable events become likely with increased sampling.
-
-> How many success stories
-> are simply cases of winning a coin flipping tournament?
-
 ### There's Always Enough Data
 
 > [!quote] Voltaire