vault backup: 2025-10-13 16:32:45

2025-10-13 16:32:45 -04:00
parent fb5a551b6e
commit e0b34d3ab4
22 changed files with 16011 additions and 63 deletions
@@ -4,6 +4,11 @@
      "type": "file",
      "ctime": 1754398939230,
      "path": "full-takeoff.md"
+    },
+    {
+      "type": "file",
+      "ctime": 1760361633886,
+      "path": "TODO.md"
    }
  ]
 }
@@ -11,5 +11,6 @@
  "quickadd",
  "obsidian-spaced-repetition",
  "image-converter",
-  "recent-files-obsidian"
+  "recent-files-obsidian",
+  "obsidian-latex-suite"
 ]
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+{
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+	"name": "Latex Suite",
+	"version": "1.9.8",
+	"minAppVersion": "1.0.0",
+	"description": "Make typesetting LaTeX math as fast as handwriting through snippets, text expansion, and editor enhancements",
+	"author": "artisticat",
+	"authorUrl": "https://github.com/artisticat1",
+	"fundingUrl": "https://ko-fi.com/artisticat",
+	"isDesktopOnly": false
+}
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
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+}
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+    font-size: var(--font-inputs);
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+}
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+}
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+}
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+}
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+}
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+}
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+}
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@@ -25,7 +25,9 @@
      "#destiny/fleeting"
    ],
    "noteFoldersToIgnore": [
-      "**/*.excalidraw.md"
+      "**/*.excalidraw.md",
+      "tags.md",
+      "Templates"
    ],
    "openRandomNote": false,
    "autoNextNote": false,
@@ -56,10 +56,10 @@ in areas other than material takeoff.

 Assembly philosophy as applied to coordination
 is minimizing redundant memorization among participants.
-
-* In an ideal work breakdown, every estimator would be 100% ignorant of the requirements of others' scopes,
-  thus allowing them to understand their own as well as possible given other constraints.
-* In practice there is some overlap where scopes meet
+In an ideal work breakdown,
+every estimator would be totally ignorant of the requirements of others' scopes,
+thus allowing them to understand their own as well as possible.
+In practice there is some overlap where scopes meet

 * Eliminate redundant measurements
 * Minimize redundant responsibility
@@ -11,19 +11,25 @@ title: Bid Process Strategy
 ---
 # Bid Process Strategy

-This note is intended to describe
-...
-particularly [[strategy#Auction Theory]],
+This note is intended to describe bid process strategy
+especially in terms of [[strategy#Auction Theory]],
 which specifically addresses the competitive bid format
 typical of construction project award.

-**Executives** inform **Risk Tolerance**,
-**Risk Tolerance** informs **Minimum Estimate Certainty**
+### Outside Factors Influencing Bid Price

-### Bid Strategy
+#### Expected Competition $\downarrow$

-Project cost certainty
+Predictably, competition drives price down.

-#### Expected Competition
+Bidders will accept a lower payout
+for a greater chance of reward.

-### Estimation Strategy
+**Competition** drives down **Probability of award**
+
+#### Backlog Deficit $\downarrow$
+
+Bidders will accept a lower payout or even a loss
+in order to retain employees.
+
+**Backlog Deficit** drives up **Utility of award**
@@ -2,7 +2,8 @@
 id:
 aliases: []
 tags:
-  - destiny/fleeting
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/incomplete
  - topic/other
  - type/encyclopedia
 title: "Birds I've Seen Around Here"
@@ -119,7 +119,7 @@ either for spec requirements or conduit fill considerations.
 > [!info] Ohm's Law
 >
 > $$
-> V = I \times R, \quad R = \frac{ V }{ I }, \quad I = \frac{ V }{ R }
+> V = I \times R, \quad R = \frac{V}{I}, \quad I = \frac{V}{R}
 > $$

 ### Step 1: Effective Impedance $Z$
@@ -147,8 +147,8 @@ For $P$ parallel resistances of value $R$
 $$
 \begin{align*}
 \frac{1}{R_{\text{eq}}} &= P \times \left(\frac{1}{R}\right) \\
-                        &= \frac{P}{R} \\
-          R_{\text{eq}} &= \frac{R}{P}
+&= \frac{P}{R} \\
+R_{\text{eq}} &= \frac{R}{P}
 \end{align*}
 $$

@@ -2,9 +2,11 @@
 id:
 aliases: []
 tags:
+  - destiny/permananent
  - status/incomplete
  - topic/other
  - type/encyclopedia
+title: Default List
 ---
 # Default List

@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ for an estimator who is purely interested in improving their skills.

 ## Transparency

-Because of the persistent myth of estimate accuracy,
+Because of the [[purpose-of-construction-estimating#The Myth of Estimate Accuracy]],
 estimators are highly guarded of their personal processes,
 because detailed analysis of these processes
 would reveal that every one of us is a "bad" estimator.
@@ -59,7 +59,14 @@ such that any member can independently verify the work of another.
 This is best enforced with an expectation of collaboration on all projects,
 even those that could be done by one person.

-## Kaizen
+## Technicality
+
+In other industries, estimating is treated appropriately like a data science.
+In ours, [[gut-feel]] dominates decision making.
+
+<!-- TODO: -->
+[[estimator-calibration]]
+[[ai-in-estimating]]

 * Be competent with every tool available to you.
 * Always assume there is a better way to complete a given task.
@@ -68,10 +75,8 @@ Making estimation more efficient and enjoyable
 requires a unified effort by estimators
 to embrace the statistical aspects of our field.

-## Technicality
+## Incentives

-In other industries, estimating is treated appropriately like a data science.
-
-[[gut-feel]]
-[[estimator-calibration]]
-[[ai-in-estimating]]
+I strongly oppose any project-based incentive structure for estimators.
+Such a structure is at odds with the [[purpose-of-construction-estimating]],
+and is an example of a [perverse incentive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perverse_incentive).
@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ views:
      - formula.linkText
    sort:
      - property: formula.type
-        direction: ASC
+        direction: DESC
      - property: file.size
        direction: DESC
    columnSize:
@@ -27,3 +27,12 @@ title: Favorite Quotes
 > [!quote] Paul Arden
 > If you get stuck, draw with a different pen.
 > Change your tools; it may free your thinking.
+
+## About Incentives
+
+> [!quote] Charlie Munger
+> Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.
+
+> [!cite] Goodhart's Law
+> When a measure becomes a target,
+> it ceases to be a good measure.
@@ -26,5 +26,11 @@ such cases quickly reveal every error of assumption made by the estimator.
 > Moreover, the substitution is invisible to the client,
 > such that they would have to employ an electrician
 > to determine whether it had been taken.
-> Despite this, copper wiring is still a common specification default
-> because clients care about that sort of thing for some reason.
+
+Often, such issues are VE'd out of scope before award.
+
+For some owners, though, money is no object,
+and standardization is far more important
+than any potential construction savings.
+These owners can be expected to decline
+every value engineering option offered.
@@ -2,7 +2,8 @@
 id:
 aliases: []
 tags:
-  - destiny/fleeting
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/incomplete
  - topic/risk
 title: Gut Feel
 ---
@@ -2,6 +2,8 @@
 id:
 aliases: []
 tags:
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/draft
  - topic/math
  - topic/risk
  - type/encyclopedia
@@ -2,7 +2,10 @@
 id:
 aliases: []
 tags:
+  - destiny/uncertain
+  - status/incomplete
  - topic/software
+  - type/encyclopedia
 title: Portable Tools
 ---
 # Portable Tools
@@ -2,10 +2,10 @@
 id:
 aliases: []
 tags:
-  - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational
-  - status/draft
-  - type/guide
+ - destiny/permanent
+ - occupational
+ - status/draft
+ - type/guide
 title: Pre-Takeoff Confirmation
 ---
 # Pre-Takeoff Confirmation
@@ -24,34 +24,38 @@ and the scope included in the bid team's proposed price.
 > * Drawings: GMP, 2025-09-11
 > * Project Manual: GMP Specifications, 2025-09-11
 > * Proposal: 2025-07-03
+> * Takeoff Stage: **Full Take Off**
 >
 > Also, please confirm:
 >
 > 1. Are there any variations from the drawings that we need to include in our takeoff?
 > 2. Any accepted/pending alternates?
-> 3. We are currently taking off **Full Take Off**.
-> 4. Feeders/Subfeeds will be per Schedule on drawings (AL +100 A).
 >
-> * Feeders -- PVC UG, EMT OH.
-> * Subfeeds -- MC for metal stud units, SER all other units.
-> * VD -- As shown for subfeeds, 2% Feeders
+> Feeders:
+> * Size per Schedule on drawings (AL +100 A).
+> * PVC UG, EMT OH.
+> 
+> Subfeeds: 
+> * MC for metal stud units, SER all other units
+> 
+> Voltage Drop: As shown for subfeeds, 2% Feeders
 >
 > Units:
-> * Devices -- Standard Duplex/Toggle
-> * USB Rec -- As shown, plus 1 per bedroom (Type A & C).
-> * Studs -- Metal in M units, Wood all other locations.
-> * Telecom -- 30" UDP, CAT6. (use 28" in takeoff)
-> * Smoke Det -- 120V
+> * Devices: Standard Duplex/Toggle
+> * USB Rec's: As shown, plus 1 per bedroom (Type A & C).
+> * Studs: Metal in M units, Wood all other locations.
+> * Telecom: 30" UDP, CAT6. (use 28" in takeoff)
+> * Smoke Detection: 120V
 >
 > Fire Alarm:
 > * Pathways: Free Air
-> * 2Way: Included
+> * 2-Way: Included
 >
 > Electrical:
 > * Devices: Decora Amenities, Duplex/Toggle BOH
 >
 > Fixtures:
 > * Cable: LV in Amenity Areas
-> * Occupancy Sensor: Local
+> * Occupancy Sensors: Local
 >
 > Thank you,
@@ -11,23 +11,30 @@ title: The Purpose of Construction Estimating
 # The Purpose of Construction Estimating

 The purpose of [[construction-estimating]] in practice
-is not to determine the cost of the scope,
+is not to determine the actual cost of the scope,
 which would take far longer than allotted for bid,

-## For the Solicitor
+## The Myth of Estimate Accuracy

-* Determine feasibility of functional requirements
+<!-- TODO: -->

-> [!info] Type 2 Owners
-> For some owners, money is no object,
-> and standardization is far more important
-> than any potential construction savings.
->
-> These owners can be expected to decline
-> every [[value-engineering]] option offered
-> (see [[gold-plating]]).
+**Bid estimates are not intended to be accurate _individually_.**

-## For the Contractor
+This is a dangerous superstition
+which encourages unproductive conflict.
+
+Operations is blamed for failing to meet targets
+not intended for the purpose,
+...
+
+## For Each Party
+
+### For the Solicitor
+
+* Determine feasibility of functional requirements.
+  (see [[gold-plating]])
+
+### For the Contractor

 * Make profit to meet growth target
 * Secure work for current and projected employees (fill backlog)
@@ -39,7 +46,7 @@ which would take far longer than allotted for bid,
 > of measuring operational success by negative overrun,
 > as it is incompatible with the preferable target of estimate certainty.

-### The Role of the Estimator
+#### The Role of the Estimator

 The role of the estimator
 is to model the potential cost distribution of the project,
@@ -48,7 +55,7 @@ taking actions to reduce the model's uncertainty.
 The effect of estimating methods can be represented as $d\sigma$,
 thus efficiency is $\frac{d\sigma}{dt}$.

-### The Role of the Executive
+#### The Role of the Executive

 The role of the executive is to allocate profit and contingency
 according to the potential cost distribution
@@ -31,8 +31,8 @@ are made with a game-theoretic lens.

 ### Dominant Strategy

-The dominant strategy is the course of action
-that results in the best outcome
+A dominant strategy is one
+that results in the better outcome.

 ### "Solved" Games

@@ -43,3 +43,16 @@ that results in the best outcome
 Auction theory is a subset of game theory

 <!-- TODO: -->
+
+#### Reverse Auction
+
+In a reverse auction,
+bidders compete for the right to _sell_ a product or service.
+
+#### Sealed-Bid Auction
+
+Opposite of a conventional "open" auction,
+in a sealed-bid auction,
+bid prices are hidden from the bidders.
+
+<!-- TODO: -->