vault backup: 2025-11-04 16:43:34

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"obsidian-tikzjax",
"novel-word-count"
]
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@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/other
- destiny/uncertain
- status/complete
- exclude-from-word-count
title: Rev. William Alexander And Wife Killed In Airplane Crash
url: https://gateway.okhistory.org/ark:/67531/metadc2193346/
source: Durant Daily Democrat (Durant, Okla.), Vol. 59, No. 172, Ed. 1 Monday, April 4, 1960
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---
id:
aliases: []
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/complete
- type/minutes
title: 2025-11-04 Belle Meade Director Review
---
# 2025-11-04 Belle Meade Director Review
## Takeoff Review
Reviewed takeoff by system.
### Retail Village Temporary Power
Joel changed square foot budgets to temporary pole budgets only
due to minimal scope (warm shell).
### Generator Scope
Confirmed generator quotes include furnishing docking station.
### Feeder Lengths
Confirmed validity of longer feeder lengths:
Generator to Tower B
### Grounding
Takeoff appears to be missing some or all grounding.
To be added if necessary.
### Subfeed Sizing
Based on ampacity, subfeeds are oversized.
Sizing was per feeder schedule.
Takeoff approved unchanged.
### Undercabinet Wiremold
Multi-outlet assemblies above unit kitchen countertops were not taken off,
nor was branch wiring for the same.
Joel to confirm takeoff requirement with bid.
### Amenity Homeruns
No homeruns for amenity lighting or electrical were taken off.
Joel to add these.
> [!info] Circuits per Raceway
> Corwin stated that--assuming no overriding specification--
> up to 6 circuits in a raceway are permissible.
### Lighting Control
Lighting control takeoff was reviewed,
no changes were recommended.
> [!info] Lighting Control Pre-Work
> Corwin stated that with the imminent changes to lighting control takeoff,
> it will be necessary for estimators to more intently consider the design:
> noting quantities of lighting zones and controllers,
> even where not explicitly shown.
### Telecom
Confirmed unit telecom requirements.
Backbone was mistakenly taken off in Telecom.
### Retail Fire Alarm
Retail village fire alarm devices were taken off free-air,
Joel to substitute for EMT.
## Extension Review
Reviewed extension quantities and costs.
Of particular note were:
* conduit
* wire
* cable
* wiring devices
## Labor Plan Review
Hours per square foot was lower than expected,
this was rationalized as being due
to the relatively high portion of garage and shell retail space.
%%
"Openings per unit" was another metric considered--
higher than expected in this case--
however I didn't catch the significance of this.
%%
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@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ tags:
- occupational
- status/complete
- authorship/other
- exclude-from-word-count
title: 90-Day Performance Review
---
# 90-Day Performance Review
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@@ -62,5 +62,17 @@ Upload extracted drawings to LiveCount
### Setup Breakdowns
Replace the `Area`s with those created in [[project-setup#Setup WBS]]
> [!important]
> Do not copy Systems from WBS Accubid Setup.
#### Create Typicals
##### Create Unit Typicals
<!-- TODO: -->
##### Create Helper Typicals
1. "Building X All Stairwells All Levels"
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@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ id: construction-estimating-using-excel
aliases: []
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/uncertain
- destiny/permanent
- status/complete
- topic/estimating
- type/media-commentary
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---
id:
aliases: []
tags: []
title: Convex Hull
---
# Convex Hull
[Convex Hull](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convex_hull)
```tikz
\usepackage{pgfplots}
\pgfplotsset{compat=1.16}
\begin{document}
\begin{tikzpicture}
\begin{axis}[
axis equal,
xmin=0, xmax=3.5,
ymin=0, ymax=3.4,
grid=both,
xlabel={$x$}, ylabel={$y$},
tick style={black!60},
title={Convex Hull of a Point Set}
]
% Point cloud
\addplot[
only marks,
mark=*,
mark size=1.8pt
] coordinates {
(0.5,0.5)
(1.0,2.0)
(2.0,1.0)
(2.5,2.2)
(3.0,0.5)
(1.8,3.0)
(0.2,2.5)
(3.2,1.5)
};
% Convex hull (listed in counterclockwise order)
\addplot[
thick,
fill opacity=0.15,
fill=blue
] coordinates {
(0.5,0.5)
(3.0,0.5)
(3.2,1.5)
(1.8,3.0)
(0.2,2.5)
} -- cycle;
% (Optional) label hull vertices
\addplot[only marks, mark=*, mark size=2.2pt] coordinates {
(0.5,0.5)
(3.0,0.5)
(3.2,1.5)
(1.8,3.0)
(0.2,2.5)
};
\node[anchor=north west] at (axis cs:0.5,0.5) {$H_1$};
\node[anchor=north east] at (axis cs:3.0,0.5) {$H_2$};
\node[anchor=west] at (axis cs:3.2,1.5) {$H_3$};
\node[anchor=south] at (axis cs:1.8,3.0) {$H_4$};
\node[anchor=east] at (axis cs:0.2,2.5) {$H_5$};
\end{axis}
\end{tikzpicture}
\end{document}
```
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@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ tags:
- destiny/uncertain
- occupational
- status/incomplete
- exclude-from-word-count
title: Estimator Skills
---
# Estimator Skills
+1 -1
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@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ title: IBC Construction Types
---
# IBC Construction Types
The International Building Code (IBC)
International Building Code (IBC) Section 602: Construction Classification
lists 5 major construction types based on fire ratings/materials.
## 5-Over-1 Construction
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---
id:
aliases: []
tags:
- authorship/other-for-now
- destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete
- topic/construction
- type/encyclopedia
title: IBC Occupancy Classifications
---
# IBC Occupancy Classifications
International Building Code (IBC) Section 302: Occupancy Classification and Use Designation
1. Assembly (see Section 303): Groups A-1, A-2, A-3, A-4 and A-5.
2. Business (see Section 304): Group B.
3. Educational (see Section 305): Group E.
4. Factory and Industrial (see Section 306): Groups F-1 and F-2.
5. High Hazard (see Section 307): Groups H-1, H-2, H-3, H-4 and H-5.
6. Institutional (see Section 308): Groups I-1, I-2, I-3 and I-4.
7. Mercantile (see Section 309): Group M.
8. Residential (see Section 310): Groups R-1, R-2, R-3 and R-4.
9. Storage (see Section 311): Groups S-1 and S-2.
@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ id: mike-holts-illustrated-guide-to-electrical-estimating
aliases: []
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/uncertain
- destiny/permanent
- status/complete
- topic/construction/electrical
- topic/estimating
+28 -42
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@@ -2,97 +2,83 @@
id:
aliases: []
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- occupational/takeoff
- status/draft
- type/guide
- authorship/original
title: Misc Budgets
---
# Misc Budgets
## Slab Deck
```
Drawing = "N/A"
Area = "Typical - ..."
System = "EL - Electrical"
```
* `Drawing` = "N/A"
* `Area` = "Typical - ..."
* `System` = "EL - Electrical"
Create `Area` Typicals for every concrete slab floor:
* 'All Building'
* 1 each level except roof
* **HD:** 1 per Section
* _High Density:_ 1 per Section
```
Phase = "Building - BOH, Storage & Common"
```
`Phase` = "Building - BOH, Storage & Common"
* 'All Garage'
* 1 each level
```
Phase = "Garage"
```
`Phase` = "Garage"
In each Typical:
* Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`MISC PDI PRODUCT`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK & FEEDER`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK (NAILS, PAINT, TAPE, ETC = $250)`
* 1 Takeoff each Typical
* _Count_ = 1
* **Count** = 1
## Temporary Power & Lighting
### Temp Power
```
Area = "2 - Site"
Phase = "Temp Power"
System = "TPS - Temp Power Service (Site)"
BidItem = "1 - Site"
```
* `Area` = "2 - Site"
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
* `System` = "TPS - Temp Power Service (Site)"
* `BidItem` = "1 - Site"
* Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`TEMPORARY POWER - ... SERVICE`
### Temp Lighting (Building)
```
Area = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Building"
Phase = "Temp Power"
System = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
BidItem = "3 - Building"
```
* `Area` = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Building"
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
* `System` = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
* `BidItem` = "3 - Building"
Garden Styles:
* Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`TEMPORARY POWER - T POLE (EACH)`
* _Count_ = 1 per 150ft per building
* **Count** = 1 per 150ft per building
All others:
* Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)`
* _Count_ = Building GSF = Total GSF - Garage GSF
* **Count** = Building GSF = Total GSF - Garage GSF
### Temp Lighting (Garage)
```
Area = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Garage"
Phase = "Temp Power"
System = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
BidItem = "2 - Garage"
```
* `Area` = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Garage"
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
* `System` = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
* `BidItem` = "2 - Garage"
* Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)`
* _Count_ = Garage GSF
* **Count** = Garage GSF
## Irrigation Pumps
```
Area = "2 - Site"
Phase = "Temp Power"
System = "MISC - Site Miscellaneous"
BidItem = "1 - Site"
```
* `Area` = "2 - Site"
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
* `System` = "MISC - Site Miscellaneous"
* `BidItem` = "1 - Site"
Takeoff: `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MECHANICAL CONNECTIONS (UP TO 100A)`/`PVC - LT NM FLEX (CARFLEX)`/`30A 3PH MECH CONN (200') 3/4" PVC 4#10 - CARFLEX`
* _Count_ = 3
* **Count** = 3
* Prepend to name: "Irrigation Pumps - "
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@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ tags:
- status/incomplete
- topic/construction
- type/media
- exclude-from-word-count
title: "NFPA 101: Life Safety Code (2018)"
---
# NFPA 101: Life Safety Code (2018)
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@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ tags:
- status/incomplete
- topic/construction/electrical
- type/media
- exclude-from-word-count
title: "NEC Article 100: Definitions"
---
# NEC Article 100: Definitions
@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ tags:
- status/incomplete
- topic/construction/electrical
- type/media
- exclude-from-word-count
title: "NEC Article 110: Requirements for Electrical Installations"
---
# NEC Article 110: Requirements for Electrical Installations
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@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ tags:
- status/incomplete
- topic/construction/electrical
- type/media
- exclude-from-word-count
title: "NEC Article 210: Branch Circuits"
---
# NEC Article 210: Branch Circuits
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@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ tags:
- status/incomplete
- topic/construction/electrical
- type/media
- exclude-from-word-count
title: Article 215 Feeders
---
# Article 215 Feeders
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@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ tags:
- status/incomplete
- topic/construction/electrical
- type/media
- exclude-from-word-count
title: Article 220 Branch-Circuit, Feeder, and Service Load Calculations
---
# Article 220 Branch-Circuit, Feeder, and Service Load Calculations
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@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ tags:
- status/incomplete
- topic/construction/electrical
- type/media
- exclude-from-word-count
title:
---
# Article 300: General Requirements for Wiring Methods and Materials
@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ tags:
- status/incomplete
- topic/construction/electrical
- type/media
- exclude-from-word-count
title: Article 310 Conductors for General Wiring
---
# Article 310: Conductors for General Wiring
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@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ tags:
- status/incomplete
- topic/construction/electrical
- type/media
- exclude-from-word-count
title: "Article 314: Outlet, Device, Pull, and Junction Boxes; Conduit Bodies; Fittings; and Handhole Enclosures"
---
# Article 314: Outlet, Device, Pull, and Junction Boxes; Conduit Bodies; Fittings; and Handhole Enclosures
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@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ tags:
- status/incomplete
- topic/construction/electrical
- type/media
- exclude-from-word-count
title: "Article 430: Motors, Motor Circuits, and Controllers"
---
# Article 430: Motors, Motor Circuits, and Controllers
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@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ tags:
- status/incomplete
- topic/construction/electrical
- type/media
- exclude-from-word-count
title: "Article 450: Transformers and Transformer Vaults (Including Secondary Ties)"
---
# Article 450: Transformers and Transformer Vaults (Including Secondary Ties)
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@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ tags:
- status/incomplete
- topic/construction/electrical
- type/media
- exclude-from-word-count
title: "Article 520: Theaters, Audience Areas of Motion Picture and Television Studios, Performance Areas, and Similar Locations"
---
# Article 520: Theaters, Audience Areas of Motion Picture and Television Studios, Performance Areas, and Similar Locations
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@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ tags:
- status/incomplete
- topic/construction/electrical
- type/media
- exclude-from-word-count
title: "NFPA 70: National Electric Code"
---
# NFPA 70: National Electric Code
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@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ tags:
- status/incomplete
- topic/construction/electrical
- type/media
- exclude-from-word-count
title: "NFPA 72: National Fire Alarm and Signaling Code (2019)"
---
# NFPA 72: National Fire Alarm and Signaling Code (2019)
+11 -1
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@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ title: Note-Taking
Some say they take notes to remember now,
that by writing the thing down they commit it to memory,
and the note itself is ancillary.
That's not me at all.
I don't remember writing half of what's in [[this-notebook]].
My notes allow me to forget things I _know_
@@ -24,8 +25,13 @@ to make room for ideas I'm not decided on.
## Properties of Good Notes
Good notes are _legible_ and their meaning is clear.
It is not enough to know what you mean now,
you must write with clarity sufficient for an outsider to understand,
because eventually it will be you.
## `TALK`
%%
## TALK
This note is intended for
@@ -36,7 +42,11 @@ There are bad media for note-taking
* print
***
Opinion, possibly industry dependent:
good notes are _text-first_.
It can be difficult to explain certain concepts without visuals
and that's all the more reason to try.
%%
+11 -2
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@@ -15,5 +15,14 @@ Provide sleeves for all conduits passing through floors.
`ITEM DATABASE`/`HILTI`/`CAST-IN DEVICE CP 680-...`
* Slab Deck => P (Plastic - Combustible)
* Wood Frame => M (Metal - Non-Combustible)
* _Slab Deck:_ P (Plastic - Combustible)
* _Wood Frame:_ M (Metal - Non-Combustible)
> [!important]
> The term "sleeve" may refer to
> * a short length of conduit
> * a Hilti-type firestop sleeve assembly
> * a short length of conduit
> _in_ a Hilti-type firestop sleeve assembly
>
> Seek additional clarification.
+48 -32
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@@ -2,11 +2,11 @@
id: the-failure-of-risk-management
aliases: []
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/complete
- topic/risk
- type/media-commentary
- authorship/original
title: _The Failure of Risk Management_
---
# _The Failure of Risk Management_
@@ -45,30 +45,33 @@ Qualitative risk analysis
(i.e. risk matrices, scoring charts)
departs from legitimate statistical methodology
and has no robust evidence to suggest its efficacy.
There is good reason to believe that such methods
are deleterious to their intended purpose
in contradiction to the common response
In fact, there is good reason to believe that such methods
are _deleterious_ to their intended purpose,
in contradiction to the common refrain
that they are "better than nothing".
### Utility as a Measure of Value
Expected Value (Probability × Magnitude)
alone can not predict or inform risky decisions,
alone cannot predict or inform risky decisions,
except for risk-neutral parties,
but people and organizations are risk-averse.
and people and organizations are risk-averse.
Game 1: Which would you pick?
* Option 1: a 100% chance to receive $10,000
* Option 2: a 10% chance to receive $100,000
Most people, being risk-averse, will pick option 1.
Suppose the prize of option 1 were lowered
Suppose the payout of option 1 were lowered
until you would pick option 2.
That value is your **Certain Monetary Equivalent (CME)**
for a 10% chance of $100,000.
For risk-neutral parties, expected value = CME
For risk-neutral parties, expected value would equal CME
***
Another factor at play here
is that utility is not proportional to monetary value.
@@ -103,10 +106,22 @@ where $Pr$ is the probability of Payoff.
### Expert Opinion Must Be ~~Adjusted~~
Expert opinion is valuable despite its flaws.
Expert opinion is valuable, but its weaknesses must be compensated for.
<!-- TODO: -->
Experts tend to be good at creating heuristics,
but do not apply them consistently in practice.
> [!example]
> Chapter 7 describes a study where individual experts
> were shown to estimate risk differently for identical cases.
> [!example] p. 198
> Models based on expert opinion consistently outperform the same experts.
#### Estimator Calibration
The book details the statistically observable tendency for people
to underestimate risk and to be overconfident in their beliefs.
It describes the process of "calibration"
@@ -115,19 +130,9 @@ and make predictions far more accurately.
See [[estimator-calibration]] for more.
Experts tend to be good at creating heuristics,
but do not apply them consistently in practice.
> [!example]
> Chapter 7 describes a study where individual experts
> were shown to estimate risk differently for identical cases.
Chapter 13 introduces the [Brier Score](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score)
as a method of evaluating the performance of an estimator,
evaluated as the mean squared error of their forecasts.
> [!example] p. 198
> Models based on expert opinion consistently outperform the same experts.
equal to the mean squared error of their forecasts.
### Luck Looks Like Skill
@@ -142,19 +147,21 @@ to overvalue competence and undervalue luck
in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments
as the "Red Baron effect".
This the unstated other half of the **law of large numbers**,
that improbable events become likely with increased sampling.
This the unstated other half of the **law of large numbers**:
improbable events become likely with increased sampling.
How many success stories are simply cases of winning a coin flipping tournament?
> How many success stories
> are simply cases of winning a coin flipping tournament?
### Qualitative Labels are Problematic
> [!example] p. 170 (pp.)
> Experts do not agree on the bounds of terms expressing probability.
> "Likely" vs. "Very Likely"
> Experts do not agree on the bounds of terms expressing probability
> (e.g. "Likely" vs. "Very Likely").
> [!example] p. 182 (pp.)
> risk matrix type bucketing tends to inflate the significance of small risks.
> risk matrix type bucketing
> tends to inflate the significance of small risks.
### There's Always Enough Data
@@ -169,7 +176,7 @@ that any industry is so niche that
data sufficient for quantitative models
does not exist.
> [!quote] Fallacy of Close Analogy - p.236
> [!quote] Fallacy of Close Analogy (p.236)
> ...the belief that unless two things are identical in every way,
> nothing learned from one can be applied to the other.
@@ -212,17 +219,26 @@ to dismiss quantitative methods as inappropriate for their industry-specific ris
> and therefore chooses Car B.
> The buyer is committing the _exsupero ursus_ fallacy.
Based on this strawman it is clear Hubbard believes his detractors are _correct_
This and the other false equivalence analogy
that is the namesake of the fallacy show that,
while Hubbard believes his detractors are _correct_
that qualitative methods can not capture the entire nuance of risk probability,
but that they are failing to acknowledge that their preferred alternatives
he believes they are failing to acknowledge that their preferred alternatives
are not demonstrably more effective at doing so.
The nuance Hubbard dismisses without addressing
is the possibility of model _improvement_.
There is an obvious reason why a decision-maker
might prefer a human expert over a heuristic algorithm,
even if the algorithm is demonstrated
to outperform the human in all relevant metrics:
_Adaptability_.
It's likely that this preference is demonstrably unreasonable in many or most cases,
but that it isn't acknowledged severely weakens Hubbard's argument.
A most competent detractor would be aware of the apparent contradiction
but argue that their methods will eventually surpass quantitative methods
if they are further developed.
Such a position would additionally contextualize Hubbard's observations
Such a position would also contextualize Hubbard's observations
that detractors become emotional in their defense.
To them, Hubbard's methods represent an attractive short-term gain
that would exclude a long-term payoff.
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@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ tags:
- authorship/other
- status/incomplete
- topic/hobbies
- exclude-from-word-count
title: The Story of Ymar
description: |
An excerpt from Chapter 17 of _The Shadow of the Torturer_ by Gene Wolfe,
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@@ -13,10 +13,6 @@ that I think may be relevant later.
[Topological Sorting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topological_sorting)
## Convex Hull
[Convex Hull](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convex_hull)
## Quantities
A **quantity** has a **value** and a **unit of measure** (e.g. 20ft)
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@@ -59,12 +59,19 @@ See [[ibc-construction-types]] for more info.
Cable type wiring methods (MC, NM, SE)
may only be used where they will be concealed from view.
### PVC in Slab
### PVC In-Slab
May require rigid stub-ups in certain cases,
which could make EMT more cost-effective.
Consult with the Senior Construction Estimator in this case.
> [!important]
> Be careful of ambiguous terminology in specifications and PDI proposals:
> "underground" and "below grade" are sometimes used inappropriately
> to describe PVC in-slab.
> It may be that rigid stub-ups are only necessary when emerging from grade (dirt),
> but not when emerging from the slab.
#### Garage Slab
_Conventional Slab_: PVC in Slab