vault backup: 2026-04-12 02:38:27

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@@ -45,6 +45,15 @@ Policy Number: 0003457855
* [ ] draw floorplan
#### Design Principles
##### Books
**All of my books should be on display.**
If there is no space in my home
where I am happy displaying a certain book
then I don't actually want it and must get rid of it.
### Exterior
#### Plans
@@ -53,15 +62,19 @@ Policy Number: 0003457855
#### Design Principles
Keyword is _cozy_.
The sort of place you want to be on a weekend morning,
planning a day of birdwatching, while sipping coffee.
### Living/Dining
#### Design Principles
Keyword is _cozy_.
The sort of place you want to be on a weekend morning,
planning a day of birdwatching, while sipping coffee.
Television must not be the focal point, only present.
It should not mounted to a wall,
which would make layout less flexible
and would convey an unattractive permanence,
but placed on a console or credenza.
### Main Bedroom
@@ -81,20 +94,20 @@ Smaller by far than other bedrooms
#### TODO
* [ ] cleanup brick, block pieces in west yard
* [ ] cleanup brick, block pieces
#### Plans
* Fence in west yard
* Fence in
* Carport
### Back Yard
### East Yard
#### Plans
* Fire pit
* Suspended shades
* Eureka palms?
* Areca palms?
### Front Yard
@@ -108,10 +121,6 @@ Smaller by far than other bedrooms
### Appliances
#### Clothes Washing
Stacked washer dryer combo
#### Television
%% boo. %%
@@ -129,4 +138,4 @@ Maybe take back from Val.
* 1 each bedroom (total 3)
* 2--3 living/dining area
* long rug for hallway
* runner rug for hallway
+32
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@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: Courtier's Reply
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/incomplete
- type/encyclopedia-entry
---
# Courtier's Reply
A [courtier's reply](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Courtier%27s_reply)
is a dismissal of an argument
on the grounds that the arguer lacks the authority
(knowledge, credentials, training, etc.)
to offer any criticism at all.
The term was coined by Paul Zachary Myers as user pharyngula
in reference to _The Emperor's New Clothes_
in the eponymous article ["The Courtier's Reply"](https://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2006/12/24/the-courtiers-reply)
***
If, observing a bridge actively collapsing under the cars above it,
you suggest that some error may have been made
by the structural engineers responsible for designing or maintaining it,
and your peer replies,
"Keep your speculation to yourself,
you don't know the first thing about their discipline,"
and in that they are correct,
they have given a courtier's reply.
@@ -11,10 +11,112 @@ dg-publish: true
---
# _How to Measure Anything in Project Management_
## Review
I think it is fair to say
that _HtMAiPM_ is mostly unoriginal,
being in large part a rehash
of ideas presented in [[hubbard_2020_failure]]
and earlier in _How to Measure Anything_.[^1]
[^1]: I have not read _HtMA_,
Hubbard et al frequently state explicitly that a topic introduced in _HtMAiPM_
was covered previously.
This is not a criticism,
the benefit of _HtMAiPM_ is its accessibility.
Where _TFoRM_ and _HtMA_ use appropriately ambiguous terminology
and examples from varied fields that would benefit from their recommendations,
_HtMAiPM_ is explicitly for project managers,
and uses examples
Many of my criticisms of _TFoRM_
(most presented in [[the-failure-of-risk-management]])
still apply.
## Praise
### Accessibility and Recommendability
It is possible to get the same takeaways from _HtMAiPM_
as from the earlier _TFoRM_,
but to translate risk management terminology to project management
requires continuous mental effort
and an intuition developed without help from Hubbard.
As much as I appreciate when researchers present findings
with specialty-neutral language
so as to not imply their use should be limited to any one field,
I acknowledge that my patience in that regard is uncommon.
It is much easier to recommend _HtMAiPM_ to my peers.
I should think they would be more likely to take me up on it too,
but it is difficult to say due to the [zero product property](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-product_property).
## Criticism
### Conflict of Interest
If I have any hesitation about recommending Hubbard's books
its that sections frequently read like advertisements.
It is worse in _HtMAiPM_ than _TFoRM_
because ~~coauthor~~, one of the coauthors,
~~has some stake~~ in Oxford ~~something~~,
a paid (for profit?) repository of project data
intended for use in reference class forecasting,
a method frequently lauded by the text.
I appreciate that it's usually impossible
for these authors to give impartial recommendations
considering we're talking about innovators
(they can hardly recommend the services
of competitors that don't exist yet),
but they could have done more
to get ahead of the apparent bias.
### Estimator Calibration
As Hubbard explains in _TFoRM_ and _HtMAiPM_ reaffirms,
when Hubbard first began offering calibration training
there were no comparable services available.
In this history both books establish and credit Hubbard
as the pioneer of calibration in business risk management.
Seemingly in contradiction,
_HtMAiPM_ implies in examples of project losses
not just that organizations would have avoided loss
by implementing calibration training programs,
but that they were _negligent_ in their failure to do so.
Regardless of whether calibration training for risk management
is interpreted as [[daniel-kahneman]]'s invention or Hubbard's,
the technique is new enough that its use ought to be the rarity,
not its absence.
***
Also frustrating,
in a book all about the necessity of objective measurement,
the term "calibrated" is not explicitly defined.
Worse, interpretation from context gives
"100% accurate plus or minus a little".
***
In evidence of [[#Conflict of Interest]]
one _would_ expect that a man selling calibration training
would write in this way:
Creating FOMO for his services
and allowing him to interpret individual calibration as favors him.
## Scratch
### ???
> [!quote] [[How to Measure Anything in Project Management - Douglas W. Hubbard & Alexander Budzier & Andreas Bang Leed.pdf#page=112&selection=40,0,41,60|Chapter 4, "Exploration vs. Exploitation"]]
> The analogy of this to project planning is that we can keep trying to design better solutions to a problem before we commit to it.
## Project Options
### Project Options
> [!quote] [[How to Measure Anything in Project Management - Douglas W. Hubbard & Alexander Budzier & Andreas Bang Leed.pdf#page=117|Chapter 4, "Choosing How to Run the Project"]]
> When a project is proposed for budget approval, planners must include a list of additions and reductions... If the project runs out of budget, then deliverables will be removed from the scope.
@@ -22,13 +124,13 @@ dg-publish: true
This is different from alternates,
which are only considered at the time of award.
## Value of Information
### Value of Information
[[How to Measure Anything in Project Management - Douglas W. Hubbard & Alexander Budzier & Andreas Bang Leed.pdf#page=118|Chapter 4, "How Models Indicate What to Measure"]]
[Expected value of sample information](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value_of_sample_information)
## Estimating Impact under Uncertainty
### Estimating Impact Under Uncertainty
> [!quote] [[How to Measure Anything in Project Management - Douglas W. Hubbard & Alexander Budzier & Andreas Bang Leed.pdf#page=170&selection=40,20,46,58|Chapter 5, "Simple Tools for Measuring Uncertainty and Risk"]]
> There is such a rule, and it is called the "record-breaking probability." It is simply $1/(1+n)$ where $n$ is the number of observations resulting in the various outcomes.
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@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
---
id:
aliases: []
title: Nirvana Fallacy
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/encyclopedia-entry
---
# Nirvana Fallacy
The [nirvana fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirvana_fallacy)
also called the "perfect solution fallacy"
is the mistake made when a solution proposed to replace one existing
is judged against a hypothetical perfect solution
rather than the solution in current use.
> [!quote] Harold Demsetz "Information and Efficiency: Another Viewpoint" (1969)[^1]
> The view that now pervades much public policy economics
> implicitly presents the relevant choice
> as between an ideal norm and an existing "imperfect" institutional arrangement.
> This _nirvana_ approach differs considerably
> from a _comparative institution_ approach
> in which the relevant choice is between alternative real institutional arrangements.
[^1]: Harold Demsetz
"Information and Efficiency: Another Viewpoint"
_The Journal of Law and Economics_
Volume 12, Number 1
(April 1969)
[doi:10.1086/466657](https://doi.org/10.1086%2F466657)
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@@ -19,3 +19,8 @@ mg presence. I saw a bald eagle (_Haliaeetus leucocephalus_) for the first time
in Florida. They are ugly creatures, of both body and spirit, unlike the wood
stork (_Mycteria americana_) which is uglier of body, but pure of heart.
There was also some guy getting dumped on the phone and not taking it well.
%%
If he had a chance of keeping them
he really fumbled it calling them a "Doubting Thomas".
%%
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@@ -14,11 +14,9 @@ dg-publish: true
## Elliot St. ConEst Senior Review
[[elliott-st-hotel]]
%%
Transcription of notes
taken while reviewing Elliot St. with [[joel-jansen]].
taken while reviewing [[elliott-st-hotel]] with [[joel-jansen]].
%%
Adorne USB Heating Designation was built with standard device.
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@@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ aliases: []
title: 2026-01-09 10:00:03
tags:
- type/periodic/timestamped
- occupational
dg-publish: true
---
# 2026-01-09 10:00:03
+2
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@@ -4,6 +4,8 @@ aliases: []
title: 2026-01-11 11:00:??
tags:
- type/periodic/timestamped
- authorship/original
- topic/estimating
dg-publish: true
---
# 2026-01-11 11:00:??
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@@ -10,8 +10,7 @@ dg-publish: true
# 2026-01-22 09:55:42
The lighting drawings for
450-460 James Robertson Parkway Phase II
(fka James Roberston Pkwy Mixed Use Development)
[[450--460-james-robertson-parkway]]
show occupancy sensors serving electrical rooms.
I knew this was understood to be prohibited,
but could not have provided a code reference.
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@@ -94,4 +94,4 @@ incentivize problematic behavior
([[game-theory#Stag Hunt|hare-hunting]]).
Has such behavior been observed,
or has chief strategy been organization-aligned
in spite of the incentive?
in spite of the incentive to defect?
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@@ -49,3 +49,7 @@ representing project scale buckets.
The buckets chosen should be wide enough
that scale can be confidently estimated
after minimal investigation.
This method, as an ordinal scale
is criticized as error prone and unhelpful
in [[how-to-measure-anything-in-project-management]].
+2 -3
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@@ -20,7 +20,6 @@ yearly: "[[2026]]"
Relevant to [[2025-11-21_10-11-00]]
Today I spoke to a peer about
[[earned-value-management#Earned Value Management|earned value management]]:
Today I spoke to a peer about [[earned-value-management]]:
how it relates to our [[pdi-estimating#ConEst Processes|WBS]]
and my negative opinion of it.
and my negative opinion of EVM in general.
+2 -2
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@@ -26,8 +26,8 @@ recent implementation of [[conest-pre-takeoff-email-template]].
### Peer @ 13:42
_A screenshot of the new Pre-Takeoff email template._
_The fields "Breaker Types" and "AIC Ratings" are highlighted._
> _A screenshot of the new Pre-Takeoff email template._
> _The fields "Breaker Types" and "AIC Ratings" are highlighted._
At what point is it no longer spoon feeding
and instead should be considered fully chewing and digesting?
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@@ -60,7 +60,7 @@ because the fallibility of experts is almost universally understood.
I'm not educated, but I've known many subject matter experts;
electricians that have been so
for over half as long as the profession has existed in earnest.
I have known them to be as fallible
I have known them to be as fallible,
but I know you've been in my shoes
and experienced the same in your own profession,
so we can share this secret and recognize
+7 -5
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@@ -3,16 +3,18 @@ id: 2026-03-09T08:51:24-04:00
aliases: []
title: 2026-03-09 08:51:24
tags:
- authorship/original
- authorship/other
- destiny/permanent
- exclude-from-word-count
- occupational
- status/draft
- type/periodic/timestamped
dg-publish: true
date-created: 2026-03-09T08:51:24-04:00
daily: "[[2026-03-09]]"
weekly: "[[2026-W11]]"
date-created: 2026-03-09T08:51:24-04:00
dg-publish: true
monthly: "[[2026-03]]"
quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]"
weekly: "[[2026-W11]]"
yearly: "[[2026]]"
---
# 2026-03-09 08:51:24
@@ -370,4 +372,4 @@ Regularly achieves performance targets and actions.
%%
We agreed that this one was not meant for us.
%%
%%
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@@ -27,3 +27,7 @@ but will increase to 8.25% effective July 1, 2026.[^1]
[^1]: [Spectrum News - Mecklenburg County passes sales tax increase proposal](https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/charlotte/news/2025/11/05/sales-tax-increase-proposal-passes)
Project start date according to the Approved PDI Labor Plan is 2025-05-04.
***
Bid used 8.25% as they ought to have.
+7 -7
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@@ -22,12 +22,12 @@ yearly: "[[2026]]"
AACE International Recommended Practice No. 18R-97
| Estimate Class | Expected Accuracy (Low) | Expected Accuracy (High) |
| --------------------------------------------- | -----------------------:| ------------------------:|
| Class 5 --- Concept Screening | -20% to -50% | +30% to +100% |
| Class 4 --- Study or Feasibility | -15% to -30% | +20% to +50% |
| Class 3 --- Budget, Authorization, or Control | -10% to -20% | +10% to +30% |
| Class 2 --- Control or Bid/Tender | -5% to -15% | +5% to +20% |
| Class 1 --- Check Estimate or Bid/Tender | -3% to -10% | +3% to +15% |
| Estimate Class | Expected Accuracy (Low) | Expected Accuracy (High) |
| ------------------------------------------ | -----------------------:| ------------------------:|
| Class 5: Concept Screening | -20% to -50% | +30% to +100% |
| Class 4: Study or Feasibility | -15% to -30% | +20% to +50% |
| Class 3: Budget, Authorization, or Control | -10% to -20% | +10% to +30% |
| Class 2: Control or Bid/Tender | -5% to -15% | +5% to +20% |
| Class 1: Check Estimate or Bid/Tender | -3% to -10% | +3% to +15% |
![](https://library.aacei.org/pgd01/PGD01_Figure1.png)
+1 -24
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@@ -17,31 +17,8 @@ yearly: "[[2026]]"
---
# 2026-04-06 16:47:44
## Nirvana Fallacy
The [nirvana fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirvana_fallacy)
also called the "perfect solution fallacy"
is the mistake made when a solution proposed to replace one existing
is judged against a hypothetical perfect solution
rather than the solution in current use.
> [!quote] Harold Demsetz "Information and Efficiency: Another Viewpoint" (1969)[^1]
> The view that now pervades much public policy economics
> implicitly presents the relevant choice
> as between an ideal norm and an existing "imperfect" institutional arrangement.
> This _nirvana_ approach differs considerably
> from a _comparative institution_ approach
> in which the relevant choice is between alternative real institutional arrangements.
[^1]: Harold Demsetz
"Information and Efficiency: Another Viewpoint"
_The Journal of Law and Economics_
Volume 12, Number 1
(April 1969)
[doi:10.1086/466657](https://doi.org/10.1086%2F466657)
The "_[[the-failure-of-risk-management#_Exsupero Ursus_|exsupero ursus]]_ fallacy"
as coined by Douglas Hubbard in [[hubbard_2020_failure]][^2]
describes the same problem.
is a restatement of the [[nirvana-fallacy]].
[^2]: Or earlier? I can't recall.
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@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ yearly: "[[2026]]"
# 2026-04-10 08:28:18
I tend to think I have more to contribute to [[conest]] than to Bid.
I need to know more about the executive philosophy of both
I'd need to know more about the executive philosophy of both
before I could decide to switch or stay.
> Moreover, what about estimating coordinators and "estimating solutions"?
@@ -43,7 +43,8 @@ then it should follow that ConEst effort
should be proportional to building area,
but this is not usually the case in practice.
Since larger jobs tend to have more typical work,
jobs of every size tend to take about two weeks.
jobs of every size tend to take about two weeks
(80 estimator hours plus change for review).
In order for ConEst to estimate as budgeted,
we would need standards for acceptable takeoff
at multiple levels of estimating detail.
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---
id: 2026-04-11T15:29:01-04:00
aliases: []
title: 2026-04-11 15:29:01
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/periodic/timestamped
dg-publish: true
date-created: 2026-04-11T15:29:01-04:00
daily: "[[2026-04-11]]"
weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
yearly: "[[2026]]"
---
# 2026-04-11 15:29:01
My main concern in planning my diet is **waste**.
In my pantry I keep perishable items that I use habitually
(like ingredients for granola and tuna salad).
These are never at risk of spoilage
and would not be even if their _place_ was inconspicuous and inaccessible
because their regular use is necessitated by my habit.
These should still be placed for convenience
since I am liable to misplace them when returning them all in a hurry.
I frequently buy ingredients in bulk for value.
A backup tub of mayo may be placed inconveniently
since I'll only ever need to get to it once,
but it must be conspicuous else I may forget it
and mistakenly buy more after finishing the first.
Often I will buy ingredients that I have little experience with
without a strong idea of what specifically I want to use them for,
except the promise of a more rounded or interesting diet.
These must be the most conspicuous and most accessible items in the pantry
otherwise I'm likely to forget them until they spoil.
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@@ -0,0 +1,79 @@
---
id: 2026-04-11T16:20:11-04:00
aliases: []
title: 2026-04-11 16:20:11
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/periodic/timestamped
dg-publish: true
date-created: 2026-04-11T16:20:11-04:00
daily: "[[2026-04-11]]"
weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
yearly: "[[2026]]"
---
# 2026-04-11 16:20:11
> At first I thought this distinction in medium was between web and print,
> but in writing I recognized that Wikipedia was not especially innovative
> the web made reference print (namely encyclopedias) obsolete,
> but nonfiction literature has probably never been a preferred source of truth.
I think I like nonfiction books
because I grew up during a time
when the internet was already established
as the definitive source of all knowledge,
but when there was still vocal opposition
to its adoption as such.
In elementary school I was taught how to use the library traditionally
and I heard every week that on Wikipedia
erroneous content is presented as fact.
At the time I took issue with the warning,
now I recognize it as implicit [[nirvana-fallacy]].
Print encyclopedias have the same problem
with the additional complication
that those errors can't be fixed after distribution.
A serious limitation favoring Wikipedia
since our library's encyclopedias were a decade old.
Many people my age and much older feel validated remembering math class
knowing that they _do_ have a calculator on them at all times.
For the same reason,
my favorite books to own are ones that are wrong:
old computer science textbooks
that speculate about the future (now past),
opinion pieces with really shit opinions,
etc.
Because I now understand that books are works of art
that occasionally contain truths
(which they have always been)
rather than sources of truth
which occasionally possess artistic merit
(which they have never been)
they're much more interesting.
Most people have an understanding
that every book comes with an implied statement from its author
that they believe it is worth your time.
I don't think that most people have this expectation for encyclopedias.
I'd feel sorry for a book never finished,
but an encyclopedia entry serves most of its purpose
just by being in the volume.
* A book is text someone wanted you to read.
* An encyclopedia is text that someone wanted to be available.
The utility of a book is in its focus:
I have a lot of issues with [[hubbard_2020_failure]],
but if a coworker wanted to learn about [[statistical-modeling]] for business
I'd hand them that book
rather than send them links to a dozen articles
that may communicate their respective ideas more effectively.
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@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
---
id: 2026-04-11T17:07:47-04:00
aliases: []
title: 2026-04-11 17:07:47
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/periodic/timestamped
dg-publish: true
date-created: 2026-04-11T17:07:47-04:00
daily: "[[2026-04-11]]"
weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
yearly: "[[2026]]"
---
# 2026-04-11 17:07:47
My understanding is that most people
in their professions participate
in at least one business process
that resists all attempts at explanation.
I (perhaps inappropriately)
associate [cargo cults](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cult)
with this sort of business process
which is so complex
that criticism of it inevitably invites a [[courtiers-reply]].
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@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
---
id: 2026-04-11T23:50:56-04:00
aliases: []
title: 2026-04-11 23:50:56
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/periodic/timestamped
dg-publish: true
date-created: 2026-04-11T23:50:56-04:00
daily: "[[2026-04-11]]"
weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
yearly: "[[2026]]"
---
# 2026-04-11 23:50:56
## already two from today
![300](https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/81L00i9fdmL.jpg)
While antiquing with my mom [[2026-04-03]]
I found a flip open A-Z address directory.
I had never seen one before
and using it made me genuinely excited.
I was considering how I might use it
when I remembered that it
(like dozens of other clever devices, I'm sure)
had been made obsolete by the cell phone
which has been ubiquitous as long as I've been alive.
I thought about my typewriter.
I asked my mom if,
when she was my age,
she was ever intrigued the same way,
by dead tech.
She said she wasn't,
that she was always happy for the replacement.
It's not exactly fair, I guess.
I've got my pick of hundreds
killed by the PC alone.
She was just older than me now,
had used them all she cared to,
was happy to see them go.
I'm typing this on a new laptop
remembering my first.
It was mostly the same.
Just a decade after the Rolodex was killed,
but already two from today.
In another another three
my kid will say the same.
Just a decade after the Rolodex was killed,
but already five from today.
Chips get faster,
apps get slower.
Nothing changes,
but I think it used to be fun.
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@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
---
id: 2026-04-12T02:23:28-04:00
aliases: []
title: 2026-04-12 02:23:28
tags:
- authorship/original
- destiny/permanent
- status/draft
- type/periodic/timestamped
dg-publish: true
date-created: 2026-04-12T02:23:28-04:00
daily: "[[2026-04-12]]"
weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
yearly: "[[2026]]"
---
# 2026-04-12 02:23:28
Speaking to a mechanical engineer formerly employed by PDI
I asked if they had any examples of PDI-specific practice
that they had been lead to believe was industry standard.
They said that the drafting that they were expected to perform
was at an unhappy middle ground of detail
between the practice they were taught in school
would be appropriate for their skill
and that which they associated with operations.
I likened the engineer's experience to my own in estimating,
although I came from the grunt work side of detail.