vault backup: 2026-04-12 02:38:27
This commit is contained in:
@@ -19,3 +19,8 @@ mg presence. I saw a bald eagle (_Haliaeetus leucocephalus_) for the first time
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in Florida. They are ugly creatures, of both body and spirit, unlike the wood
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stork (_Mycteria americana_) which is uglier of body, but pure of heart.
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There was also some guy getting dumped on the phone and not taking it well.
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%%
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If he had a chance of keeping them
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he really fumbled it calling them a "Doubting Thomas".
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%%
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@@ -14,11 +14,9 @@ dg-publish: true
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## Elliot St. ConEst Senior Review
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[[elliott-st-hotel]]
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%%
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Transcription of notes
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taken while reviewing Elliot St. with [[joel-jansen]].
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taken while reviewing [[elliott-st-hotel]] with [[joel-jansen]].
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%%
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Adorne USB Heating Designation was built with standard device.
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@@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ aliases: []
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title: 2026-01-09 10:00:03
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tags:
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- type/periodic/timestamped
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- occupational
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dg-publish: true
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---
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# 2026-01-09 10:00:03
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@@ -4,6 +4,8 @@ aliases: []
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title: 2026-01-11 11:00:??
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tags:
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- type/periodic/timestamped
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- authorship/original
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- topic/estimating
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dg-publish: true
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---
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# 2026-01-11 11:00:??
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@@ -10,8 +10,7 @@ dg-publish: true
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# 2026-01-22 09:55:42
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The lighting drawings for
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450-460 James Robertson Parkway Phase II
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(fka James Roberston Pkwy Mixed Use Development)
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[[450--460-james-robertson-parkway]]
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show occupancy sensors serving electrical rooms.
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I knew this was understood to be prohibited,
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but could not have provided a code reference.
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@@ -94,4 +94,4 @@ incentivize problematic behavior
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([[game-theory#Stag Hunt|hare-hunting]]).
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Has such behavior been observed,
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or has chief strategy been organization-aligned
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in spite of the incentive?
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in spite of the incentive to defect?
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@@ -49,3 +49,7 @@ representing project scale buckets.
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The buckets chosen should be wide enough
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that scale can be confidently estimated
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after minimal investigation.
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This method, as an ordinal scale
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is criticized as error prone and unhelpful
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in [[how-to-measure-anything-in-project-management]].
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@@ -20,7 +20,6 @@ yearly: "[[2026]]"
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Relevant to [[2025-11-21_10-11-00]]
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Today I spoke to a peer about
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[[earned-value-management#Earned Value Management|earned value management]]:
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Today I spoke to a peer about [[earned-value-management]]:
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how it relates to our [[pdi-estimating#ConEst Processes|WBS]]
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and my negative opinion of it.
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and my negative opinion of EVM in general.
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@@ -26,8 +26,8 @@ recent implementation of [[conest-pre-takeoff-email-template]].
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### Peer @ 13:42
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_A screenshot of the new Pre-Takeoff email template._
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_The fields "Breaker Types" and "AIC Ratings" are highlighted._
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> _A screenshot of the new Pre-Takeoff email template._
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> _The fields "Breaker Types" and "AIC Ratings" are highlighted._
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At what point is it no longer spoon feeding
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and instead should be considered fully chewing and digesting?
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@@ -60,7 +60,7 @@ because the fallibility of experts is almost universally understood.
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I'm not educated, but I've known many subject matter experts;
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electricians that have been so
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for over half as long as the profession has existed in earnest.
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I have known them to be as fallible
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I have known them to be as fallible,
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but I know you've been in my shoes
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and experienced the same in your own profession,
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so we can share this secret and recognize
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@@ -3,16 +3,18 @@ id: 2026-03-09T08:51:24-04:00
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aliases: []
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title: 2026-03-09 08:51:24
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- authorship/other
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- destiny/permanent
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- exclude-from-word-count
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- occupational
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- status/draft
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- type/periodic/timestamped
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dg-publish: true
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date-created: 2026-03-09T08:51:24-04:00
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daily: "[[2026-03-09]]"
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weekly: "[[2026-W11]]"
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date-created: 2026-03-09T08:51:24-04:00
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dg-publish: true
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monthly: "[[2026-03]]"
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quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]"
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weekly: "[[2026-W11]]"
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yearly: "[[2026]]"
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---
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# 2026-03-09 08:51:24
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@@ -370,4 +372,4 @@ Regularly achieves performance targets and actions.
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%%
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We agreed that this one was not meant for us.
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%%
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%%
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@@ -27,3 +27,7 @@ but will increase to 8.25% effective July 1, 2026.[^1]
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[^1]: [Spectrum News - Mecklenburg County passes sales tax increase proposal](https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/charlotte/news/2025/11/05/sales-tax-increase-proposal-passes)
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Project start date according to the Approved PDI Labor Plan is 2025-05-04.
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***
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Bid used 8.25% as they ought to have.
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@@ -22,12 +22,12 @@ yearly: "[[2026]]"
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AACE International Recommended Practice No. 18R-97
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| Estimate Class | Expected Accuracy (Low) | Expected Accuracy (High) |
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| --------------------------------------------- | -----------------------:| ------------------------:|
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| Class 5 --- Concept Screening | -20% to -50% | +30% to +100% |
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| Class 4 --- Study or Feasibility | -15% to -30% | +20% to +50% |
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| Class 3 --- Budget, Authorization, or Control | -10% to -20% | +10% to +30% |
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| Class 2 --- Control or Bid/Tender | -5% to -15% | +5% to +20% |
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| Class 1 --- Check Estimate or Bid/Tender | -3% to -10% | +3% to +15% |
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| Estimate Class | Expected Accuracy (Low) | Expected Accuracy (High) |
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| ------------------------------------------ | -----------------------:| ------------------------:|
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| Class 5: Concept Screening | -20% to -50% | +30% to +100% |
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| Class 4: Study or Feasibility | -15% to -30% | +20% to +50% |
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| Class 3: Budget, Authorization, or Control | -10% to -20% | +10% to +30% |
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| Class 2: Control or Bid/Tender | -5% to -15% | +5% to +20% |
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| Class 1: Check Estimate or Bid/Tender | -3% to -10% | +3% to +15% |
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@@ -17,31 +17,8 @@ yearly: "[[2026]]"
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---
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# 2026-04-06 16:47:44
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## Nirvana Fallacy
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The [nirvana fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirvana_fallacy)
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also called the "perfect solution fallacy"
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is the mistake made when a solution proposed to replace one existing
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is judged against a hypothetical perfect solution
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rather than the solution in current use.
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> [!quote] Harold Demsetz "Information and Efficiency: Another Viewpoint" (1969)[^1]
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> The view that now pervades much public policy economics
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> implicitly presents the relevant choice
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> as between an ideal norm and an existing "imperfect" institutional arrangement.
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> This _nirvana_ approach differs considerably
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> from a _comparative institution_ approach
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> in which the relevant choice is between alternative real institutional arrangements.
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[^1]: Harold Demsetz
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"Information and Efficiency: Another Viewpoint"
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_The Journal of Law and Economics_
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Volume 12, Number 1
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(April 1969)
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[doi:10.1086/466657](https://doi.org/10.1086%2F466657)
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The "_[[the-failure-of-risk-management#_Exsupero Ursus_|exsupero ursus]]_ fallacy"
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as coined by Douglas Hubbard in [[hubbard_2020_failure]][^2]
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describes the same problem.
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is a restatement of the [[nirvana-fallacy]].
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[^2]: Or earlier? I can't recall.
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@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ yearly: "[[2026]]"
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# 2026-04-10 08:28:18
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I tend to think I have more to contribute to [[conest]] than to Bid.
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I need to know more about the executive philosophy of both
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I'd need to know more about the executive philosophy of both
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before I could decide to switch or stay.
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> Moreover, what about estimating coordinators and "estimating solutions"?
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@@ -43,7 +43,8 @@ then it should follow that ConEst effort
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should be proportional to building area,
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but this is not usually the case in practice.
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Since larger jobs tend to have more typical work,
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jobs of every size tend to take about two weeks.
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jobs of every size tend to take about two weeks
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(80 estimator hours plus change for review).
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In order for ConEst to estimate as budgeted,
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we would need standards for acceptable takeoff
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at multiple levels of estimating detail.
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@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
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---
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id: 2026-04-11T15:29:01-04:00
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aliases: []
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title: 2026-04-11 15:29:01
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/draft
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- type/periodic/timestamped
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dg-publish: true
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date-created: 2026-04-11T15:29:01-04:00
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daily: "[[2026-04-11]]"
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weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
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monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
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quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
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yearly: "[[2026]]"
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---
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# 2026-04-11 15:29:01
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My main concern in planning my diet is **waste**.
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In my pantry I keep perishable items that I use habitually
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(like ingredients for granola and tuna salad).
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These are never at risk of spoilage
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and would not be even if their _place_ was inconspicuous and inaccessible
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because their regular use is necessitated by my habit.
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These should still be placed for convenience
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since I am liable to misplace them when returning them all in a hurry.
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I frequently buy ingredients in bulk for value.
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A backup tub of mayo may be placed inconveniently
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since I'll only ever need to get to it once,
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but it must be conspicuous else I may forget it
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and mistakenly buy more after finishing the first.
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Often I will buy ingredients that I have little experience with
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without a strong idea of what specifically I want to use them for,
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except the promise of a more rounded or interesting diet.
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These must be the most conspicuous and most accessible items in the pantry
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otherwise I'm likely to forget them until they spoil.
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@@ -0,0 +1,79 @@
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---
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id: 2026-04-11T16:20:11-04:00
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aliases: []
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title: 2026-04-11 16:20:11
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/draft
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- type/periodic/timestamped
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dg-publish: true
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date-created: 2026-04-11T16:20:11-04:00
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daily: "[[2026-04-11]]"
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weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
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monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
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quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
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yearly: "[[2026]]"
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---
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# 2026-04-11 16:20:11
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> At first I thought this distinction in medium was between web and print,
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> but in writing I recognized that Wikipedia was not especially innovative
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> the web made reference print (namely encyclopedias) obsolete,
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> but nonfiction literature has probably never been a preferred source of truth.
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I think I like nonfiction books
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because I grew up during a time
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when the internet was already established
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as the definitive source of all knowledge,
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but when there was still vocal opposition
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to its adoption as such.
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In elementary school I was taught how to use the library traditionally
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and I heard every week that on Wikipedia
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erroneous content is presented as fact.
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At the time I took issue with the warning,
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now I recognize it as implicit [[nirvana-fallacy]].
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Print encyclopedias have the same problem
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with the additional complication
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that those errors can't be fixed after distribution.
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A serious limitation favoring Wikipedia
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since our library's encyclopedias were a decade old.
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Many people my age and much older feel validated remembering math class
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knowing that they _do_ have a calculator on them at all times.
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For the same reason,
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my favorite books to own are ones that are wrong:
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old computer science textbooks
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that speculate about the future (now past),
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opinion pieces with really shit opinions,
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etc.
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Because I now understand that books are works of art
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that occasionally contain truths
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(which they have always been)
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rather than sources of truth
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which occasionally possess artistic merit
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(which they have never been)
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they're much more interesting.
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Most people have an understanding
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that every book comes with an implied statement from its author
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that they believe it is worth your time.
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I don't think that most people have this expectation for encyclopedias.
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I'd feel sorry for a book never finished,
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but an encyclopedia entry serves most of its purpose
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just by being in the volume.
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* A book is text someone wanted you to read.
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* An encyclopedia is text that someone wanted to be available.
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The utility of a book is in its focus:
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I have a lot of issues with [[hubbard_2020_failure]],
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but if a coworker wanted to learn about [[statistical-modeling]] for business
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I'd hand them that book
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rather than send them links to a dozen articles
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that may communicate their respective ideas more effectively.
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@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
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---
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id: 2026-04-11T17:07:47-04:00
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aliases: []
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title: 2026-04-11 17:07:47
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/draft
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- type/periodic/timestamped
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dg-publish: true
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date-created: 2026-04-11T17:07:47-04:00
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daily: "[[2026-04-11]]"
|
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weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
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monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
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quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
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yearly: "[[2026]]"
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---
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# 2026-04-11 17:07:47
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My understanding is that most people
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in their professions participate
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in at least one business process
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that resists all attempts at explanation.
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I (perhaps inappropriately)
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associate [cargo cults](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cult)
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with this sort of business process
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which is so complex
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that criticism of it inevitably invites a [[courtiers-reply]].
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@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
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---
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id: 2026-04-11T23:50:56-04:00
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aliases: []
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title: 2026-04-11 23:50:56
|
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/draft
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- type/periodic/timestamped
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dg-publish: true
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date-created: 2026-04-11T23:50:56-04:00
|
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daily: "[[2026-04-11]]"
|
||||
weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
|
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monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
|
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quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
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yearly: "[[2026]]"
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---
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# 2026-04-11 23:50:56
|
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|
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## already two from today
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||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
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While antiquing with my mom [[2026-04-03]]
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I found a flip open A-Z address directory.
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||||
I had never seen one before
|
||||
and using it made me genuinely excited.
|
||||
I was considering how I might use it
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||||
when I remembered that it
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||||
(like dozens of other clever devices, I'm sure)
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had been made obsolete by the cell phone
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which has been ubiquitous as long as I've been alive.
|
||||
|
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I thought about my typewriter.
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||||
I asked my mom if,
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when she was my age,
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she was ever intrigued the same way,
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by dead tech.
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She said she wasn't,
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that she was always happy for the replacement.
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It's not exactly fair, I guess.
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I've got my pick of hundreds
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||||
killed by the PC alone.
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She was just older than me now,
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had used them all she cared to,
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was happy to see them go.
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|
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I'm typing this on a new laptop
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||||
remembering my first.
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It was mostly the same.
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Just a decade after the Rolodex was killed,
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but already two from today.
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|
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In another another three
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my kid will say the same.
|
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Just a decade after the Rolodex was killed,
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but already five from today.
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|
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Chips get faster,
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apps get slower.
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Nothing changes,
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||||
but I think it used to be fun.
|
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@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
id: 2026-04-12T02:23:28-04:00
|
||||
aliases: []
|
||||
title: 2026-04-12 02:23:28
|
||||
tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/periodic/timestamped
|
||||
dg-publish: true
|
||||
date-created: 2026-04-12T02:23:28-04:00
|
||||
daily: "[[2026-04-12]]"
|
||||
weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
|
||||
monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
|
||||
quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
|
||||
yearly: "[[2026]]"
|
||||
---
|
||||
# 2026-04-12 02:23:28
|
||||
|
||||
Speaking to a mechanical engineer formerly employed by PDI
|
||||
I asked if they had any examples of PDI-specific practice
|
||||
that they had been lead to believe was industry standard.
|
||||
They said that the drafting that they were expected to perform
|
||||
was at an unhappy middle ground of detail
|
||||
between the practice they were taught in school
|
||||
would be appropriate for their skill
|
||||
and that which they associated with operations.
|
||||
|
||||
I likened the engineer's experience to my own in estimating,
|
||||
although I came from the grunt work side of detail.
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user