849 B
849 B
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HTMAiPM Reference Class Forecasting (RCF)
hubbard_2025_project-management#Top-down Estimations Reference Class Forecasting
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RCF can avoid potentially faulty scaling (square foot area, number of dwelling/sleeping units)
If RCF isn't informative (uniqueness bias) then neither is project manager experience.
A loss exceedance curve can inform how to price a project under estimate uncertainty. Contingency can be added to an estimate made with standard methods sufficient to lower probability of overrun to 5%, for example.