43 lines
1.5 KiB
Markdown
43 lines
1.5 KiB
Markdown
---
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id: 2026-04-02T19:10:14-04:00
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aliases: []
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title: 2026-04-02 19:10:14
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/draft
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- type/periodic/timestamped
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dg-publish: true
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date-created: 2026-04-02T19:10:14-04:00
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daily: "[[2026-04-02]]"
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weekly: "[[2026-W14]]"
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monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
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quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
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yearly: "[[2026]]"
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---
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# 2026-04-02 19:10:14
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From a high-level, business proposition perspective
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[[construction-estimating]] is identical in function to stock trading,
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both typified by expert judgement under uncertainty
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...
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One significant difference despite their similarity
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is that only in stock trading is it well understood
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that individual loss is not only inevitable,
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_it is how the strategy works._
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If you're not losing sometimes
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you're not assuming enough risk
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and you're missing out on returns.
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Similar sentiments expressed in the context of construction contracting
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are not popular, and are frequently judged irresponsible.
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I believe the tendency to set standards for estimates
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beyond the optimal level of detail
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stems from a [cognitive bias of association](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#Association)
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or [relevance fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies#Relevance_fallacies)
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which leads otherwise rational estimators
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to the erroneous belief that because construction is physically tangible,
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risk control is more effective than in markets.
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This may be related to [[2026-04-02_20-41-59#Decomposition Fallacy]].
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