45 lines
1.4 KiB
Markdown
45 lines
1.4 KiB
Markdown
---
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id: 2026-05-22T11:57:18-0400
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title: 2026-05-22 11:57:18
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tags: []
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daily: "[[2026-05-22]]"
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---
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# 2026-05-22 11:57:18
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## ConEst's Purpose Considering its Accuracy
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I removed [[2026-05-21_16-18-20]]'s plot
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because I screwed up the error calculation.
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After more rigorous investigation
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and more recent project data
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(the same new bids are based on)
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I'm happier with this one.
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![[pdi-estimating-error-kde.png]]
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The plot suggests that [[conest]]'s role
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is not in decreasing cost [[uncertainty]],
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because it does not appear to do so more than marginally.
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I'm lead to speculate that our purpose is in determining crew loading,
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which is cool with me,
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labor is the more interesting part of [[construction-estimating]],
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however our methods are not well suited to the purpose.
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After all, the majority of it is calculated in [[ms-excel]].
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See [[pdi-labor-plan]].
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> A less cautious man than I might wonder
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> if the negative bias apparent in Bid and ConEst
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> is indicative of systematic [[incentives|incentive]] gaming,
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> since if it we could change nothing of our process
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> and simply add contingency to address it.
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***
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> Our use of "WBS" is technically inaccurate.
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> The [[pdi-wbs|PDI "WBS"]] is more accurately called
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> [[earned-value-management#Schedule|the project schedule]],
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> which is the document which defines the planned value of each task.
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> On the other hand, project schedule is a terrible name for a specific document,
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> so I don't blame us for stealing WBS.
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