55 lines
1.2 KiB
Markdown
55 lines
1.2 KiB
Markdown
---
|
|
id: uncertainty
|
|
tags:
|
|
- topic/risk
|
|
- type/encyclopedia
|
|
title: Uncertainty
|
|
---
|
|
# Uncertainty
|
|
|
|
%%
|
|
|
|
## TALK
|
|
|
|
## TODO
|
|
|
|
%%
|
|
|
|
The term "uncertainty" refers to the possibility of multiple outcomes.
|
|
|
|
## Information
|
|
|
|
In statistical inference and [[strategy]],
|
|
**information** is the resolution of uncertainty.
|
|
|
|
[[value-of-information]]
|
|
|
|
## Types of Uncertainty
|
|
|
|
### Aleatory Uncertainty
|
|
|
|
> [!info] Also Known As
|
|
> * statistical uncertainty
|
|
> * stochastic uncertainty
|
|
> * random error
|
|
|
|
Aleatory uncertainty is inherent randomness in data that can't be explained away.
|
|
|
|
### Epistemic Uncertainty
|
|
|
|
> [!info] Also Known As
|
|
> * systematic uncertainty
|
|
> * model uncertainty
|
|
|
|
Epistemic uncertainty is that which arises from a lack of knowledge,
|
|
and can be eliminated with access to [[#information]].
|
|
|
|
Under Bayesian statistics,
|
|
all uncertainty is epistemic.
|
|
|
|
## See Also
|
|
|
|
* [Uncertainty analysis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_analysis)
|
|
* [Uncertainty quantification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_quantification)
|
|
* [Propagation of uncertainty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propagation_of_uncertainty)
|
|
* [Sensitivity analysis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensitivity_analysis) |