58 lines
1.8 KiB
Markdown
58 lines
1.8 KiB
Markdown
---
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id: 2026-04-18T18:44:11
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title: 2026-04-18 18:44:11
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tags:
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- topic/estimating
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daily: "[[2026-04-18]]"
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---
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# 2026-04-18 18:44:11
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I don't see many anymore
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on account of my change in workplace,
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but I think often of [[construction-estimating|estimators]]
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like I once knew well,
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who somehow managed to be in the industry for decades
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while believing that it is poor estimating
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to accept any [[risk]] in a bid,
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that all [[uncertainty]] must be clarified.
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Of course,
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they didn't believe that with their actions,
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only their words.
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Suppose though we take them at those words,
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like you do when you're a new estimator
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who barely knows what the word means,
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you're just happy to be out of the field
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where it's hot and no one is ever happy.
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But you've got a brain between your ears,
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so you ask the estimator---
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we'll call him Steve---
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you ask Steve what the limit is,
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because obviously some scope
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Steve cranes his neck and squints at you, mouth half open.
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This is how he expresses incredulity.
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With that invitation, you continue:
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Your time costs your owners about fifty dollars an hour
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including salary and burden,
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and Steve's time is worth even more.
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Between the time spent
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* quadruple checking that the question isn't answered in the documents,
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* considering whether you should wait until you have more questions,
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* typing the RFI and sending the email,
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* parsing the engineer's inevitably unhelpful response,
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* consulting with Steve for his interpretation,
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* and so on and so on,
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it's a safe bet that the average cost
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to officially resolve uncertainty of any magnitude
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is in the hundreds of dollars.
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Assuming a contract win rate of fifty percent,
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any cost of [[risk-mitigation]]
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greater than half the reduction in [[value-at-risk]]
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represents a loss.
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Steve moves the goalposts,
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says of course he didn't mean "the small stuff",
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and also that you're overcomplicating it.
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