71 lines
2.5 KiB
Markdown
71 lines
2.5 KiB
Markdown
---
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id: 2026-05-01T20:37:29-0400
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title: 2026-05-01 20:37:29
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tags: []
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daily: "[[2026-05-01]]"
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---
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# 2026-05-01 20:37:29
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Earlier [[2026-05-01|today]]
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while editing [[orthodox-construction-estimating]]
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my frustration with the term "detailed takeoff" was reignited
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and I searched in vain for the term describing its type:
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> a name which presupposes some quality of the subject
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> which is not inherent to it.[^1]
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[^1]: "Detailed takeoff" is more a victim of the common positive connotation of "detailed",
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which seems to exist for all adjectives synonymous in the same context like "precise".
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The common connotation is what's frustrating, I suppose.
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Surely everyone has seen the comparison of the targets
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and knows that precision says nothing meaningful about performance.
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My search came up empty,
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which didn't surprise me,
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I've never cured a case of [lethologica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tip_of_the_tongue)
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with Google or LLM's.
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(but I keep trying)
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Later I found the answer in [[merrow_2022_contract-strategies]]:
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Merrow regrets the relevance implied
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by the [_value-laden_](https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/value-laden) term
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[[statistical-significance]].
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***
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It is said often
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that [[construction-estimating]] in some or all part art,
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not wholly science.
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This attitude is a coping mechanism
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excusing our acceptance of a deeply flawed status quo,
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and our unwillingness to look for answers
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to questions that our methods have begged for decades.
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Due to obstacles discussed in [[kahneman_2011_thinking]]
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repeated in [[hubbard_2020_failure]],
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construction estimating as a profession
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suffers from poor conditions for natural improvement of [[estimator-calibration]],
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namely delayed and uninformative feedback.
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As a consequence,
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decisions are made on [[gut-feel]] at best,
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and superstition at worst.
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The suitability of estimating methods
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is judged based on [value](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_(ethics))[^2]
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and [aesthetic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aesthetics).
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rather than [empirical evidence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empirical_evidence).
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[^2]: [Value judgment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_judgment)
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***
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What makes a good estimator
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(besides their ability to click all the little circles on a drawing)
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is their judgement, the quality of their assumptions.
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Herein lies the paradox of [[orthodox-construction-estimating]]:
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_assumptions are only necessitated by its incompatibility with [[uncertainty]]._
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***
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Construction estimating is pure science,
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acceptability is the art.
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