2026-01-30

2026-01-30 08:44

Follow-up to 2026-01-28#2026-01-28 10:02.

I really would like to implement timestamped notes, especially while it's still somewhat practical to split my old dailies.

Only the lack of plugin support stops me.

2026-01-30 09:06

I tried the Smart Connections community plugin. I can't imagine who it could be useful for. It seems to just identify large blocks of similar content, which means that every daily note is connected to every other.

2026-01-30 13:42

Often when I consider learning a new skill or improving an existing one, I conceive of a system that would force me to improve, rather than forget about it (as I am won to do). See 2026-01-19#Ulysses Pacts.

Conventional "home assistant" tech and doctrine caters to a class of people I find bizarre, those that would spend enormous sums of cash and effort just for the marginal benefit of not having to touch light switches as often as normal people. Instead they get to take out their phone, find and open the light switch app, and touch a virtual light switch because the routines they programmed were too conservative.

Human or software, an assistant without agency and the will to contradict you is worthless. If the effort to communicate your instructions exceeds the effort to perform them, you will always do the task yourself.

2026-01-30 16:29

Laplace's Rule of Succession (LRS)

[!info] Pierre-Simon Laplace

If some event occurred m times in n observations, the probability the event will occur in the next observation is given by:


\frac{1+m}{2+n}

Rule of Five

The probability that any given sample is above the median is 50%. The probability that the minimum and maximum values of n samples don't straddle the median is (\frac{1}{2})^{n}, equivalent to getting the same result on a flipped coin n times in a row.

There is a 93.75% chance that the median of a population is between the smallest and largest values in any random sample of five from that population.

2.1 KiB Raw Blame History