vault backup: 2026-01-30 17:32:43

2026-01-30.md

@@ -26,3 +26,53 @@ I tried the Smart Connections community plugin.
 I can't imagine who it could be useful for.
 It seems to just identify large blocks of similar content,
 which means that every daily note is connected to every other.
+
+## 2026-01-30 13:42
+
+Often when I consider learning a new skill or improving an existing one,
+I conceive of a system that would _force_ me to improve,
+rather than forget about it (as I am won to do).
+See [[2026-01-19#Ulysses Pacts]].
+
+Conventional "home assistant" tech and doctrine
+caters to a class of people I find bizarre,
+those that would spend enormous sums of cash and effort
+just for the marginal benefit
+of not having to touch light switches as often as normal people.
+Instead they get to take out their phone,
+find and open the light switch app,
+and touch a virtual light switch
+because the routines they programmed were too conservative.
+
+Human or software,
+an assistant without agency and the will to contradict you is worthless.
+If the effort to _communicate_ your instructions
+exceeds the effort to perform them,
+you will always do the task yourself.
+
+## 2026-01-30 16:29
+
+### Laplace's Rule of Succession (LRS)
+
+> [!info]
+> Pierre-Simon Laplace
+
+If some event occurred $m$ times in $n$ observations,
+the probability the event will occur in the next observation
+is given by:
+
+$$
+\frac{1+m}{2+n}
+$$
+
+### Rule of Five
+
+The probability that any given sample is above the median is 50%.
+The probability that the minimum and maximum values of $n$ samples
+_don't_ straddle the median is $(\frac{1}{2})^{n}$,
+equivalent to getting the same result on a flipped coin
+$n$ times in a row.
+
+There is a 93.75% chance that the median of a population
+is between the smallest and largest values
+in any random sample of five from that population.