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2026-03-20 11:05:34

The Delphi Method

[!quote] Wikipedia The Delphi method, or Delphi technique (/ˈdɛlfaɪ/ DEL-fy; also known as EstimateTalkEstimate, or ETE), is a structured communication technique, or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts.

[!quote] The Delphi method assumes that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.

To my knowledge, neither hubbard_2020_failure nor hubbard_2025_project-management mention the Delphi method specifically, but they specifically warn against this premise.

It ought to be permissible in conversation to submit potentially relevant factors, but arguments on the impact of those factors will quickly spoil the estimate.