33 lines
1008 B
Markdown
33 lines
1008 B
Markdown
---
|
||
id: 2026-03-20T11:05:34-0400
|
||
title: 2026-03-20 11:05:34
|
||
tags:
|
||
- status/draft
|
||
- topic/estimating
|
||
date-created: 2026-03-20T11:05:34-04:00
|
||
daily: "[[2026-03-20]]"
|
||
---
|
||
# 2026-03-20 11:05:34
|
||
|
||
## The Delphi Method
|
||
|
||
> [!quote] [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method)
|
||
> The Delphi method, or Delphi technique
|
||
> (/ˈdɛlfaɪ/ DEL-fy; also known as Estimate–Talk–Estimate, or ETE),
|
||
> is a structured communication technique, or method,
|
||
> originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method
|
||
> that relies on a panel of experts.
|
||
|
||
> [!quote]
|
||
> The Delphi method assumes that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.
|
||
|
||
To my knowledge,
|
||
neither [[hubbard_2020_failure]] nor [[hubbard_2025_project-management]]
|
||
mention the Delphi method specifically,
|
||
but they specifically warn against this premise.
|
||
|
||
It ought to be permissible in conversation
|
||
to submit potentially relevant factors,
|
||
but arguments on the impact of those factors
|
||
will quickly spoil the estimate.
|