1.6 KiB
id, title, tags, daily
| id | title | tags | daily |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14T19:16:23-0400 | 2026-05-14 19:16:23 | 2026-05-14 |
2026-05-14 19:16:23
After jared-defanti introduced me to complex adaptive systems and 2004_gribbin_deep-simplicity I told him about hubbard_2020_failure's response to taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness's main thesis: That Taleb's warning not to draw conclusions from historical data is itself a conclusion based on historical data. Even though I butchered the retelling Jared laughed out loud, the way I did when reading the response for the first time.
In the absence of reputable sources, belief in Taleb's pessimistic view of forecasting requires one to want for it to be true. I think my laughter was nervous, nervous that a position seemed so compelling until reframed only slightly, at which point it became ridiculous to consider.
I realize now that I totally misunderstood the direction Jared was going. The Google AI summary of Deep Simplicity was this (emphasis added):
Deep Simplicity: Bringing Order to Chaos and Complexity by John Gribbin explains chaos and complexity theory, arguing that seemingly random, complex systems (like weather or stock markets) arise from simple, underlying laws, making the universe more orderly than it appears.
I skimmed the summary and misread the emphasized text as "making the universe appear more orderly than it is". I was primed to disagree because we had been talking about Taleb. It turns out Gribbin would disagree with Taleb too.