vault backup: 2026-05-14 23:58:39
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---
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title: "Hanlon's Razor"
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tags: []
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---
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# Hanlon's Razor
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[Hanlon's razor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor)
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> "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."
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## Etymology
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The identity of the eponymous Hanlon is uncertain.
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I find the attribution to Heinlein most compelling
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on account of I don't know how to pronounce Heinlein either.
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## Trivia
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I first heard of Douglas Hubbard while reading the Wikipedia article for Hanlon's razor,
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which at the time featured a quote from [[hubbard_2020_failure]].
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Based on the quote alone I bought a copy.
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+1
-22
@@ -9,27 +9,6 @@ up: "[[my-interests]]"
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---
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# Favorite Quotes
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## About Tools
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> [!quote] John Culkin, commonly attributed to Marshall McLuhan
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> We shape our tools and, thereafter, our tools shape us.
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> [!quote] _[[thoreau_1854_walden|Walden]]_, Henry David Thoreau
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> Men have become the tools of their tools.
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> [!quote] Jeff Duntemann
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> A good tool improves the way you work.
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> A great tool improves the way you think.
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> [!quote] Alan Watts
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> We are sick with a fascination
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> for the useful tools of names and numbers,
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> of symbols, signs, conceptions, and ideas.
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> [!quote] Paul Arden
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> If you get stuck, draw with a different pen.
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> Change your tools; it may free your thinking.
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## About Process Optimization
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### "It Takes an Engineer to Build a Bridge that Barely Stands"
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@@ -110,4 +89,4 @@ and easily interpreted as an [optimization problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wik
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> [!quote] Hofstadter's law
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> It always takes longer than you expect,
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> even when you take into account Hofstadter's law.
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> even when you take into account Hofstadter's law.
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---
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title: "Occam's Razor"
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tags: []
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---
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# Occam's Razor
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> [!info] Also Known As
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> * the principle of parsimony
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> * the law of parsimony
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Recommends searching for explanations constructed with the smallest possible set of elements.
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Attributed to William of Ockham, 14th-century English philosopher and theologian.
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> _Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem_
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> ("Entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity")
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> "Of two competing theories, the simpler explanation is to be preferred."
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---
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id: 2026-05-14T17:57:07-0400
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title: 2026-05-14 17:57:07
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tags: []
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daily: "[[2026-05-14]]"
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---
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# 2026-05-14 17:57:07
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In my years of using [[accubid|Accubid]] nearly every work day
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I've always longed for good analogies for using the wrong [[tools|tool]] for the job.
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I found one that could almost be said to be in common use:
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"Hitting a nail with the handle of the hammer"
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But the phrase is not ideal for my purpose.
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It suggests that the tool _can_ be used to achieve the objective,
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but that it is being used suboptimally.
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"Driving a screw with a hammer"
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which I came up with, though surely not for the first time,
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is more appropriate for Accubid and its use in [[construction-estimating]].
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It suggests the tool _can not_ be used to achieve the objective,
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but that it may be possible to use it to _mimic_ success.
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If you manage to drive a screw with a hammer
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you have still failed to use it as a fastener.
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Despite its name,
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Accubid is clearly not meant for bidding.
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Bidding requires an appreciation of uncertainty and risk
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that naive [[decrease-in-sigma|zero-sigma]] "estimating" does nothing to assist.
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Estimators have to do that part, _the important part_, in their head.
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It ought to be glaringly obvious to Trimble
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that their software is not being used as intended.
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The use of items to be budgetary of other item
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which are not known or not present in the database
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is perhaps universal,
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even though this false specificity is detrimental
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to both estimating and operations.
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Briefly sheathing [[hanlons-razor|Hanlon's razor]],
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I believe Trimble may be _deliberately avoiding_ respect for uncertainty, despite demand,
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because to support price uncertainty would call into question
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the utility of their biggest earners and up-sells.
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Tra-Ser is the industry gold standard you can't live without,
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but what good is a single price, which isn't even guaranteed for purchase _today_,
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compared to a range estimated for the lifetime of the project?
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If you believe we live in Trimble's fantasy world
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where you can buy out a bid BOM as-is
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then they can sell you a subscription for Spectrum, their ERP software.
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To really beat this analogy to death,
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Trimble is has a monopoly on hammers
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so they'd rather convince us we need a hammer
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than sell us the screwdriver we _do_ need.
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---
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id: 2026-05-14T19:16:23-0400
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title: 2026-05-14 19:16:23
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tags: []
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daily: "[[2026-05-14]]"
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---
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# 2026-05-14 19:16:23
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After [[jared-defanti|Jared]] introduced me to
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[complex adaptive systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_adaptive_system)
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and [[2004_gribbin_deep-simplicity]]
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I told him about [[hubbard_2020_failure]]'s response
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to [[taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness]]'s main thesis:
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That Taleb's warning not to draw conclusions from historical data
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is itself a conclusion based on historical data.
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Even though I butchered the retelling
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Jared laughed out loud,
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the way I did when reading the response for the first time.
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In the absence of reputable sources,
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belief in Taleb's pessimistic view of forecasting
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requires one to _want_ for it to be true.
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I think my laughter was nervous,
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nervous that a position seemed so compelling
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until reframed only slightly,
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at which point it became ridiculous to consider.
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***
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I realize now that I totally misunderstood the direction Jared was going.
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The Google AI summary of _Deep Simplicity_ was this (emphasis added):
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> Deep Simplicity: Bringing Order to Chaos and Complexity by John Gribbin
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> explains chaos and complexity theory,
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> arguing that seemingly random, complex systems
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> (like weather or stock markets)
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> arise from simple, underlying laws,
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> _making the universe more orderly than it appears_.
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I skimmed the summary
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and misread the emphasized text
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as "making the universe appear more orderly than it is".
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I was primed to disagree because we had been talking about Taleb.
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It turns out Gribbin would disagree with Taleb too.
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---
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id: 2026-05-14T22:02:35-0400
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title: 2026-05-14 22:02:35
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tags: []
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daily: "[[2026-05-14]]"
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---
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# 2026-05-14 22:02:35
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Wringing the juice out of my hammered screw analogy from [[2026-05-14_17-57-07]],
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I've also been thinking about my reputation as "the [[ms-excel|Excel]] guy"
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which followed me from [[ace-electric-inc|Ace]].
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I sympathize, certainly the best tool for the job is the best one you have,
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but at some point in hammering screws
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you really have to just buck up and make the trip to Lowe's.
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> [!question]
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> You'd tell me if one of these notes affected your opinion of me,
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> wouldn't you?
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I can confidently say that every time I've watched someone do my job more efficiently[^1] than me
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I have immediately made efforts to incorporate their improvements into my process.
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Absent pressing personal matters or imminent retirement
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it's difficult to imagine how the pain of learning something new
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could outrank the pain that ought to come with knowing
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that more could be done with your limited time.
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Or, more compelling yet, in [[construction-estimating]],
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the pain of spending more time on a single project.
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I would do almost anything to be able to move on even just a day faster.
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[^1]: Not faster, that's easy. I'm slow as hell.
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---
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id: 2026-05-14T22:43:05-0400
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title: 2026-05-14 22:43:05
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tags: []
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daily: "[[2026-05-14]]"
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---
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# 2026-05-14 22:43:05
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I believe [[construction-estimating]] gets its fetish[^1] for **granularity**[^2]
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from its proximity to, and significant composition of,
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skilled trade workers, and their biased perception of the value of effort.
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[^1]: Fetish is the right word for it if you've ever heard the justifications.
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I'll say no more.
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[^2]: Granularity is a great word for it, I got it from [[jared-defanti|Jared]].
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I was calling it _precision_ before, but that's [laden](https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/value-laden)
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with positive value
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where _granularity_ sounds as annoying as it is.
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Generalizing,
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if I can do some electrical task to the bare minimum standard in ten hours,
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then I can do it meticulously, with an appreciable increase in quality, in fifteen.
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Past fifteen hours there is literally nothing more that I can do
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that could be argued to add value to the result.
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Back to "bare minimum",
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the term has objective meaning in trade work.
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Absolute minimum quality is defined by governing codes.
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Contrast with estimating:
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I _can_ complete an estimate for a million dollar project in an hour.
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I could reasonably spend ten hours or a hundred on the same project.
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In estimating, minimum quality may be set by internal standards,
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but they may be bent or broken for the right job or the right customer.
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> [!summary]
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> In skilled trade work, the road ends after the "extra mile".
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>
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> In estimating, you can't even tell when you're on the extra mile,
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> and after you pass it the shit just keeps going,
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> <small>and also we're paying for gas in this analogy.</small>
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---
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title: Tools
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tags: []
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---
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# Tools
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A tool is a _thing_ used to achieve an objective.
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Tools may be a physical object like a hand tool or power tool,
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a piece of [[software|application software]],
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a process, a technique,
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or something more conceptual like a way of thinking (paradigm).
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Tools may have multiple uses,
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some intended and some not.
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It is well understood that quality and efficiency suffer
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when one uses the wrong tool for the job.
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## Quotes
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> [!quote] John Culkin, commonly attributed to Marshall McLuhan
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> We shape our tools and, thereafter, our tools shape us.
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> [!quote] _[[thoreau_1854_walden|Walden]]_, Henry David Thoreau
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> Men have become the tools of their tools.
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> [!quote] Jeff Duntemann
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> A good tool improves the way you work.
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> A great tool improves the way you think.
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> [!quote] Alan Watts
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> We are sick with a fascination
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> for the useful tools of names and numbers,
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> of symbols, signs, conceptions, and ideas.
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> [!quote] Paul Arden
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> If you get stuck, draw with a different pen.
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> Change your tools; it may free your thinking.
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