vault backup: 2025-10-13 08:18:22

.obsidian/plugins/recent-files-obsidian/data.json

@@ -1,208 +0,0 @@
-{
-  "recentFiles": [
-    {
-      "basename": "README",
-      "path": "README.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "estimating-culture",
-      "path": "estimating-culture.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "risk-oriented-estimating",
-      "path": "risk-oriented-estimating.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "optimal-estimating-patterns",
-      "path": "optimal-estimating-patterns.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "consolidate-estimating-thoughts",
-      "path": "consolidate-estimating-thoughts.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "separating-estimating-concerns",
-      "path": "separating-estimating-concerns.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "functional-estimating",
-      "path": "functional-estimating.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "pdi-estimating-systems",
-      "path": "pdi-estimating-systems.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "sleeving",
-      "path": "sleeving.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "alternating-current",
-      "path": "alternating-current.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "feeders",
-      "path": "feeders.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "full-takeoff",
-      "path": "full-takeoff.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "strategy",
-      "path": "strategy.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "estimating-detail",
-      "path": "estimating-detail.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "estimating-methodologies",
-      "path": "estimating-methodologies.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "bid-process-strategy",
-      "path": "bid-process-strategy.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "TODO",
-      "path": "TODO.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "topics",
-      "path": "topics.base"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "monte-carlo-methods",
-      "path": "monte-carlo-methods.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "nfpa-70_450_transformers",
-      "path": "nfpa-70_450_transformers.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "nfpa-70_430_motors",
-      "path": "nfpa-70_430_motors.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "nfpa-70_314_boxes",
-      "path": "nfpa-70_314_boxes.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "nfpa-70_310_conductors_for_general_wiring",
-      "path": "nfpa-70_310_conductors_for_general_wiring.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "nfpa-70_220_load-calculations",
-      "path": "nfpa-70_220_load-calculations.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "nfpa-70_215_feeders",
-      "path": "nfpa-70_215_feeders.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "nfpa-70_210_branch-circuits",
-      "path": "nfpa-70_210_branch-circuits.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "nfpa-70_110_requirements-for-electrical-installations",
-      "path": "nfpa-70_110_requirements-for-electrical-installations.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "realism-vs-instrumentalism",
-      "path": "realism-vs-instrumentalism.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "pdi-estimating",
-      "path": "pdi-estimating.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "estimating-thoughts",
-      "path": "estimating-thoughts.base"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "tasks",
-      "path": "tasks.base"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "subfeeds",
-      "path": "subfeeds.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "supertopics",
-      "path": "supertopics.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "this-notebook",
-      "path": "this-notebook.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "traditional-estimating-methods",
-      "path": "traditional-estimating-methods.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "units",
-      "path": "units.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "uncertainty",
-      "path": "uncertainty.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "windows-setup",
-      "path": "windows-setup.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "backlog",
-      "path": "backlog.base"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "location-vs-scope",
-      "path": "Excalidraw/location-vs-scope.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "raceway-terms",
-      "path": "raceway-terms.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "hvac-calculations",
-      "path": "hvac-calculations.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "owned-models",
-      "path": "owned-models.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "gold-plating",
-      "path": "gold-plating.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "the-failure-of-risk-management",
-      "path": "the-failure-of-risk-management.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "portable-tools",
-      "path": "portable-tools.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "pre-takeoff-confirmation",
-      "path": "pre-takeoff-confirmation.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "risk",
-      "path": "risk.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "project-setup",
-      "path": "project-setup.md"
-    },
-    {
-      "basename": "standalone-systems",
-      "path": "standalone-systems.md"
-    }
-  ],
-  "omittedPaths": [],
-  "omittedTags": [],
-  "updateOn": "file-open",
-  "omitBookmarks": false
-}

the-failure-of-risk-management.md

@@ -14,6 +14,20 @@ The Failure of Risk Management
 (Why It's Broken and How to Fix It)
 by Douglas W. Hubbard
 
+## Mentioned Topics and Abbreviations
+
+* Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
+* Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT)
+* Actuarial Science
+* Options Theory (OT)
+* Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)
+* Probabalistic Risk Analysis (PRA)
+* Value at Risk (VaR)
+* Loss-Exceedance Curve (LEC)
+* Risk Tolerance
+* Certain Monetary Equivalent (CME)
+    * also called Certainty Equivalent
+
 ## Key Takeaways
 
 ### Definition of Risk
@@ -39,16 +53,44 @@ that they are "better than nothing".
 
 Expected Value (Probability × Magnitude)
 alone can not predict or inform risky decisions,
-except for risk-neutral parties.
-People and organizations are risk-averse
-%% TODO: ... %%
+except for risk-neutral parties,
+but people and organizations are risk-averse.
+
+Game 1: Which would you pick?
+* Option 1: a 100% chance to receive $10,000
+* Option 2: a 10% chance to receive $100,000
+
+Most people, being risk-averse, will pick option 1.
+Suppose the prize of option 1 were lowered
+until you would pick option 2.
+
+That value is your **Certain Monetary Equivalent (CME)**
+for a 10% chance of $100,000.
 
 For risk-neutral parties, expected value = CME
 
+Another factor at play here
+is that utility is not proportional to monetary value.
+
+Consider these additional choices:
+
+Game 2:
+* Option 1: a 100% chance to receive $1,000
+* Option 2: a 10% chance to receive $10,000
+
+Game 3:
+* Option 1: a 100% chance to receive $100,000
+* Option 2: a 10% chance to receive $1,000,000
+
+Assuming that the value of one dollar were linear,
+all three games should have the same solution,
+but in reality one's answers will differ.
+
 ### Expert Opinion Must Be ~~Adjusted~~
 
 Expert opinion is valuable despite its flaws.
-%% TODO: ... %%
+
+<!-- TODO: -->
 
 The book details the statistically observable tendency for people
 to underestimate risk and to be overconfident in their beliefs.
@@ -127,7 +169,7 @@ EOL translates well to continuous probabilities.
 
 ### Single Point Estimates are Problematic
 
-> [!example] p. 232
+> [!example] p. 232 pp.
 > Hubbard describes a case in the oil industry
 > where decent estimating is simplified to the point of serious error
 > (collapsing distributions to a single point for "accounting purposes")
@@ -135,20 +177,6 @@ EOL translates well to continuous probabilities.
 
 The case closely mirrors construction estimating.
 
-## Mentioned Topics and Abbreviations
-
-* Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
-* Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT)
-* Actuarial Science
-* Options Theory (OT)
-* Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)
-* Probabalistic Risk Analysis (PRA)
-* Value at Risk (VaR)
-* Loss-Exceedance Curve (LEC)
-* Risk Tolerance
-* Certain Monetary Equivalent (CME)
-    * also called Certainty Equivalent
-
 ## Critiques
 
 ### _Exsupero Ursus_