vault backup: 2025-12-08 16:37:36
This commit is contained in:
+4
-4
@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@
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},
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"insert-yaml-attributes": {
|
||||
"enabled": true,
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||||
"text-to-insert": "id:\naliases: []\ntags: []"
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||||
"text-to-insert": "id:\naliases: []\ntitle:\ntags: []"
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||||
},
|
||||
"move-tags-to-yaml": {
|
||||
"enabled": false,
|
||||
@@ -52,10 +52,10 @@
|
||||
"sort-order": "Ascending Alphabetical"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"yaml-key-sort": {
|
||||
"enabled": false,
|
||||
"yaml-key-priority-sort-order": "",
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||||
"enabled": true,
|
||||
"yaml-key-priority-sort-order": "id\naliases\ntitle\ntags",
|
||||
"priority-keys-at-start-of-yaml": true,
|
||||
"yaml-sort-order-for-other-keys": "None"
|
||||
"yaml-sort-order-for-other-keys": "Ascending Alphabetical"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"yaml-timestamp": {
|
||||
"enabled": false,
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||||
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||||
@@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ tags:
|
||||
type: article
|
||||
title: Rev. William Alexander And Wife Killed In Airplane Crash
|
||||
url: https://gateway.okhistory.org/ark:/67531/metadc2193346/
|
||||
author: Peterson, Robert H.
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||||
authors:
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||||
- Peterson, Robert H.
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||||
journal: Durant Daily Democrat (Durant, Okla.)
|
||||
volume: 59
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||||
number: 172
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||||
|
||||
@@ -21,14 +21,14 @@ Specifically, they took issue with having to
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||||
This puzzled me because the examples they gave
|
||||
sounded like stereotypical estimation problems.
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- TODO: Include example -->
|
||||
%% TODO: Include example %%
|
||||
|
||||
<!--
|
||||
%%
|
||||
TODO: discussion based on the difference between engineering,
|
||||
(which requires knowledge of subject matter)
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||||
and estimation
|
||||
(which requires knowledge of ~~impact~~).
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||||
-->
|
||||
%%
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||||
|
||||
It's not engineering to budget for the most likely case.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
id:
|
||||
aliases: []
|
||||
tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/draft
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||||
- type/daily
|
||||
title: 2025-12-08
|
||||
---
|
||||
# 2025-12-08
|
||||
|
||||
## 2025-12-08 11:03
|
||||
|
||||
I hate to come off as pedantic,
|
||||
but I care a lot about standardized terminology
|
||||
because spending a few minutes to be more thoughtful in specification
|
||||
can save hundreds of people cumulative hours of confusion.
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||||
And the problem with standardization, of course,
|
||||
is that sometimes it works,
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||||
and undoing years of poor conditioning is... not easy.
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||||
@@ -8,7 +8,11 @@ tags:
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
title: Gregg Notehand
|
||||
subtitle: A Personal-Use Shorthand & Integrated Instruction in How to Make Notes
|
||||
author: Leslie, Louis A. AND Zoubek, Charles E. AND Poe, Roy W. AND Deese, James
|
||||
authors:
|
||||
- Leslie, Louis A.
|
||||
- Zoubek, Charles E.
|
||||
- Poe, Roy W.
|
||||
- Deese, James
|
||||
edition: Second
|
||||
year: 1968
|
||||
publisher: McGraw-Hill, Inc.
|
||||
|
||||
+1
-1
@@ -71,7 +71,7 @@ Replace the `Area`s with those created in [[project-setup#Setup WBS]]
|
||||
|
||||
##### Create Unit Typicals
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- TODO: -->
|
||||
%% TODO: %%
|
||||
|
||||
##### Create Helper Typicals
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -60,7 +60,7 @@ equipment of the same type is assumed to be evenly spaced.
|
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|
||||
## Location vs. Scope
|
||||
|
||||
<!--TODO:-->
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||||
%%TODO:%%
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||||
|
||||
![[location-vs-scope.excalidraw]]
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -1,3 +1,10 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
id:
|
||||
aliases: []
|
||||
title: The Cruel Mother (Traditional)
|
||||
tags:
|
||||
- exclude-from-word-count
|
||||
---
|
||||
# The Cruel Mother (Traditional)
|
||||
|
||||
## Lyrics
|
||||
|
||||
+1
-1
@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ title: Diagrams
|
||||
|
||||
```mermaid
|
||||
graph LR
|
||||
A[README] --> B
|
||||
A[README] %% B
|
||||
|
||||
class A internal-link;
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -26,41 +26,37 @@ title: Distributed Antenna Systems (DAS) Takeoff
|
||||
|
||||
### FACR to Every Elevator Shaft
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|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV PIT = ...`
|
||||
|
||||
Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length and Count
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV PIT = ...`
|
||||
* **Length** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length_
|
||||
* **Count** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Count_
|
||||
|
||||
### FACR to Every Staircase
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO STAIRWELL = ...`
|
||||
|
||||
Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length and Count
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO STAIRWELL = ...`
|
||||
* **Length** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length_
|
||||
* **Count** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Count_
|
||||
|
||||
### Stairwell Riser Every 2 Floors
|
||||
|
||||
> [!info] Takeoff
|
||||
> * `Area` = "Typical - Stairwells Building Even Levels"
|
||||
>
|
||||
> 1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`STAIRWELL RISER EVERY 2 FLRS = ...`
|
||||
> * **Count** = Each stairwell
|
||||
1. * `Area` = "Typical - Stairwells Building Even Levels"
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||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`STAIRWELL RISER EVERY 2 FLRS = ...`
|
||||
* **Count** = Each stairwell
|
||||
|
||||
### FACR to Electric Room
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO 2HR-RATED RM = ...`
|
||||
|
||||
Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO 2HR-RATED RM = ...`
|
||||
* **Length** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length_
|
||||
|
||||
### Electric Room Riser to Every Floor
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`2HR-RATED RM RISER TO EVERY FLR = ...`
|
||||
|
||||
Takeoff in every Electric Room
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`2HR-RATED RM RISER TO EVERY FLR = ...`
|
||||
* **Count** = Each Electric Room
|
||||
|
||||
### Top 2H Rated Room To Roof
|
||||
|
||||
> [!info] Takeoff
|
||||
> 1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`TOP 2HR RATED RM TO ROOF = ...`
|
||||
> * **Length** = 15ft or height of ceiling on last building level
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`TOP 2HR RATED RM TO ROOF = ...`
|
||||
* **Length** = Top level ceiling height to structure (minimum 15ft)
|
||||
|
||||
## Horizontal
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -68,6 +64,5 @@ Takeoff in every Electric Room
|
||||
> Usually only for cellular DAS.
|
||||
> Confirm takeoff requirement with [[pdi-estimating#Bid Estimating|Bid]].
|
||||
|
||||
> [!info] Takeoff
|
||||
> 1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`CORRIDORS ...`
|
||||
> * **Length** = Length measured for every corridor/garage
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`CORRIDORS ...`
|
||||
* **Length** = Length measured for every corridor/garage
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -33,8 +33,8 @@ would be as nonsensical as excluding _the_ unit subfeed.
|
||||
> [!aside]
|
||||
> There's an argument to be made
|
||||
> that _the_ two-way communication system (singular)
|
||||
> is legitimate shorthand for the super-system
|
||||
> that includes all ICC two-way communication _systems_ (plural),
|
||||
> is legitimate shorthand for the "super-system"
|
||||
> that includes all ICC defined two-way communication _systems_ (plural),
|
||||
> and I'd tend to agree, but the distinction should be noted.
|
||||
|
||||
All systems currently listed in this note
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -92,7 +92,7 @@ even those that could be done by one person.
|
||||
In other industries, estimating is treated appropriately like a data science.
|
||||
In ours, [[gut-feel]] dominates decision making.
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- TODO: -->
|
||||
%% TODO: %%
|
||||
[[estimator-calibration]]
|
||||
[[ai-in-estimating]]
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
+41
-55
@@ -31,19 +31,19 @@ Include [[sleeving-takeoff]] as necessary.
|
||||
|
||||
### Fire Command Center
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`HEAD END EQUIP`/`... HEAD END`
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`HEAD END EQUIP`/`... HEAD END`
|
||||
|
||||
### Generator Room
|
||||
|
||||
`Area` = Same as FACR
|
||||
1. `Area` = Same as FACR
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`GENERATOR ROOM ...`
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`GENERATOR ROOM ...`
|
||||
|
||||
### Fire Pump Room
|
||||
|
||||
`Area` = Same as FACR
|
||||
1. `Area` = Same as FACR
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE PUMP ROOM ...`
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE PUMP ROOM ...`
|
||||
|
||||
### Elevator Control Rooms
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -51,29 +51,23 @@ Include [[sleeving-takeoff]] as necessary.
|
||||
|
||||
For each Elevator Control Room (ECR):
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`ELEV CONTROL ROOM ...`
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`ELEV CONTROL ROOM ...`
|
||||
* **Count** = 1
|
||||
|
||||
* **Count** = 1
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV CONTROL RM ...`
|
||||
|
||||
* **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and ECR.
|
||||
* Input adder length to reach the level of the ECR (Minimum 15ft).
|
||||
2. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV CONTROL RM ...`
|
||||
* **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and ECR.
|
||||
* Input adder length to reach the level of the ECR (Minimum 15ft).
|
||||
|
||||
### Elevator Shafts
|
||||
|
||||
`Area` = Same as FACR
|
||||
|
||||
For each elevator shaft:
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`ELEV SHAFT ...`
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`ELEV SHAFT ...`
|
||||
* **Count** = 1
|
||||
|
||||
* **Count** = 1
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV SHAFT ...`
|
||||
|
||||
* **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and elevator shaft.
|
||||
* Input adder length to reach the level of the shaft (Minimum 15ft).
|
||||
2. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV SHAFT ...`
|
||||
* **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and elevator shaft.
|
||||
* Input adder length to reach the level of the shaft (Minimum 15ft).
|
||||
|
||||
> [!important] Counting Elevator Shafts
|
||||
> Adjacent elevators may be in the same or parallel shafts.
|
||||
@@ -95,10 +89,9 @@ For each elevator shaft:
|
||||
|
||||
For each stairwell:
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO STAIRWELLS 1" CONDUIT ...`
|
||||
|
||||
* **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and stairwell.
|
||||
* Input adder length to reach the level of the stairwell (Minimum 15ft).
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO STAIRWELLS 1" CONDUIT ...`
|
||||
* **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and stairwell.
|
||||
* Input adder length to reach the level of the stairwell (Minimum 15ft).
|
||||
|
||||
## Terminal Cabinets
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -107,15 +100,19 @@ For each stairwell:
|
||||
* _Garden Style, High Density:_ (2) 1"C
|
||||
* _High Rise:_ (2) 2"C
|
||||
|
||||
Horizontal:
|
||||
1. Horizontal:
|
||||
|
||||
> * `Area` = Same as FACR
|
||||
> * **Length** = Length measured from FACR to all electrical rooms
|
||||
* `Area` = Same as FACR
|
||||
|
||||
`... HORIZONTAL RUN`
|
||||
* **Length** = Length measured from FACR to all electrical rooms
|
||||
|
||||
Vertical:
|
||||
2. Vertical:
|
||||
|
||||
> * `Area` = "Typical - Building All Levels"
|
||||
> * **Length** = 10ft
|
||||
* `Area` = "Typical - Building All Levels"
|
||||
|
||||
`... RISER`
|
||||
* **Length** = 10ft
|
||||
|
||||
## Annunciator Panels
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -123,13 +120,13 @@ Vertical:
|
||||
> * Fire Alarm Annunciator (FAA)
|
||||
> * Fire Alarm Annunciator Panel (FAAP)
|
||||
|
||||
> `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`ANNUNCIATORS`/`REMOTE SERIAL ANNUNCIATOR ...`
|
||||
> * **Length** = Length measured from the FACR to FAA or Lobby
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`ANNUNCIATORS`/`REMOTE SERIAL ANNUNCIATOR ...`
|
||||
* **Length** = Length measured from the FACR to FAA or Lobby
|
||||
|
||||
## Central Monitoring Loop
|
||||
|
||||
> [!important]
|
||||
> Garden Style only.
|
||||
> Garden Style only.
|
||||
|
||||
> Fire Alarm Control Panels from each building will send a signal to a central location.
|
||||
>
|
||||
@@ -141,14 +138,14 @@ Vertical:
|
||||
|
||||
### Smoke Detectors
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`SMOKE DETECTOR W/ BASE - ...`
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`SMOKE DETECTOR W/ BASE - ...`
|
||||
|
||||
_Design Build:_
|
||||
Count every stairwell at every level.
|
||||
|
||||
### Pull Stations
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`PULL STATION - ...`
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`PULL STATION - ...`
|
||||
|
||||
_Design Build:_
|
||||
Count every stairwell at every level
|
||||
@@ -163,7 +160,7 @@ Count every stairwell at every level.
|
||||
|
||||
### Magnetic Door Holders
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INDICATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`MAGNETIC DOOR HOLDER - ...`
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INDICATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`MAGNETIC DOOR HOLDER - ...`
|
||||
|
||||
_Design Build:_
|
||||
Count 2 for every set of double doors.
|
||||
@@ -171,9 +168,9 @@ Count 2 for every set of double doors.
|
||||
|
||||
### Horns, Speakers, and Strobes
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INDICATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`INDOOR HORN STROBE - ...`
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INDICATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`INDOOR HORN STROBE - ...`
|
||||
|
||||
_Design Build:_
|
||||
_Design Build (method 1):_
|
||||
* Count every 75 ft,
|
||||
* measure with circles on Bluebeam
|
||||
* or divide relevant SF area by 4415
|
||||
@@ -181,29 +178,18 @@ _Design Build:_
|
||||
* every elevator lobby,
|
||||
* and every BOH room on the first floor and garage levels.
|
||||
|
||||
_Design Build (alt):_
|
||||
_Design Build (alternative method):_
|
||||
* 15ft from end of corridor,
|
||||
* then every 50ft
|
||||
|
||||
## Firefighter Phone System
|
||||
|
||||
* firefighter phone jacks
|
||||
* fire warden station
|
||||
* fire phone cabinet
|
||||
|
||||
Communicates directly with FACR.
|
||||
Not related to responder radio.
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`COMMUNICATION DEVICES ...`/`...`
|
||||
|
||||
## Fire Smoke Dampers (FSD's)
|
||||
|
||||
For each damper, take off both
|
||||
|
||||
`System` = "FA - Fire Alarm"
|
||||
1. * `System` = "FA - Fire Alarm"
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES ...`/`ADDRESSABLE OUTPUT RELAY MODULE ...`
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES ...`/`ADDRESSABLE OUTPUT RELAY MODULE ...`
|
||||
|
||||
and `System` = "EL - Electrical"
|
||||
2. * `System` = "EL - Electrical"
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MISC ASSEMBLIES`/`FSD ...`
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MISC ASSEMBLIES`/`FSD ...`
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -26,14 +26,14 @@ laboring is the most interesting and rewarding part of the job.
|
||||
Discussions of human factors are far more engaging
|
||||
than those of statistical analysis.
|
||||
|
||||
<!--
|
||||
%%
|
||||
TODO: discuss the necessity of comprehensive labor consumption insights
|
||||
and visualizations which are not currently feasible
|
||||
as an expectation of owners and contractors.
|
||||
|
||||
Estimators know that doubling crew won't double production,
|
||||
but we must be able to offer evidence as such.
|
||||
-->
|
||||
%%
|
||||
|
||||
Tables of labor factors given certain conditions
|
||||
can be converted to functions using regressions.
|
||||
|
||||
+3
-3
@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ title: Game Theory
|
||||
|
||||
[[auction-theory|Auction theory]] is a subset of game theory
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- TODO: -->
|
||||
%% TODO: %%
|
||||
|
||||
#### Reverse Auction
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -27,13 +27,13 @@ bid prices are hidden from the bidders.
|
||||
|
||||
[[uncertainty#Information]]
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- TODO: -->
|
||||
%% TODO: %%
|
||||
|
||||
## Terminology
|
||||
|
||||
### "Solved" Games
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- TODO: -->
|
||||
%% TODO: %%
|
||||
|
||||
### Symmetry
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
+2
-2
@@ -21,10 +21,10 @@ title: Homelab
|
||||
|
||||
Today I worked to get LostLenore, my laptop Ubuntu Server test machine in a state to host web apps.
|
||||
|
||||
<!--
|
||||
%%
|
||||
Note: "Today" is sometime before March 2025.
|
||||
Likely well before if I remember correctly.
|
||||
-->
|
||||
%%
|
||||
|
||||
This motivation was spurred by the idea that I could run regular expensive processes
|
||||
on the server and provide API calls to get the data when I need it.
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,252 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
id:
|
||||
aliases: []
|
||||
title: "The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It, Second Edition"
|
||||
tags:
|
||||
- authorship/other
|
||||
- exclude-from-word-count
|
||||
- status/incomplete
|
||||
- topic/risk
|
||||
- type/media
|
||||
authors: Douglas W. Hubbard
|
||||
publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
|
||||
type: book
|
||||
year: 2020
|
||||
---
|
||||
# The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It, Second Edition
|
||||
|
||||
%%
|
||||
This note, with the exception of comments like this one
|
||||
(reserved for notes on transcription)
|
||||
consists only of content from the text.
|
||||
For commentary see the companion
|
||||
[[the-failure-of-risk-management]].
|
||||
%%
|
||||
|
||||
## Part One: An Introduction To The Crisis
|
||||
|
||||
### Chapter 1: Healthy Skepticism For Risk Management
|
||||
|
||||
#### A "Common Mode Failure"
|
||||
|
||||
#### Key Definitions: Risk Management And Some Related Terms
|
||||
|
||||
#### What Failure Means
|
||||
|
||||
#### Scope And Objectives Of This Book
|
||||
|
||||
#### Notes
|
||||
|
||||
### Chapter 2: A Summary Of The Current State Of Risk Management
|
||||
|
||||
#### A Short And Entirely-Too-Superficial History Of Risk
|
||||
|
||||
#### Current State Of Risk Management In The Organization
|
||||
|
||||
#### Current Risks And How They Are Assessed
|
||||
|
||||
#### Notes
|
||||
|
||||
### Chapter 3: How Do We Know What Works?
|
||||
|
||||
#### Anecdote: The Risk Of Outsourcing Drug Manufacturing
|
||||
|
||||
#### Why It's Hard To Know What Works
|
||||
|
||||
#### An Assessment Of Self-Assessments
|
||||
|
||||
#### Potential Objective Evaluations Of Risk Management
|
||||
|
||||
#### What We May Find
|
||||
|
||||
#### Notes
|
||||
|
||||
### Chapter 4: Getting Started: A Simple Straw Man Quantitative Model
|
||||
|
||||
#### A Simple One-For-One Substitution
|
||||
|
||||
#### The Expert As The Instrument
|
||||
|
||||
#### A Quick Overview Of "Uncertainty Math"
|
||||
|
||||
#### Establishing Risk Tolerance
|
||||
|
||||
#### Supporting The Decision: A Return On Mitigation
|
||||
|
||||
#### Making The Straw Man Better
|
||||
|
||||
#### Note
|
||||
|
||||
## Part Two: Why It's Broken
|
||||
|
||||
### Chapter 5: The "Four Horsemen" Of Risk Management: Some (Mostly) Sincere Attempts To Prevent An Apocalypse
|
||||
|
||||
#### Actuaries
|
||||
|
||||
#### War Quants: How World War II Changed Risk Analysis Forever
|
||||
|
||||
#### Economists
|
||||
|
||||
#### Management Consulting: How A Power Tie And A Good Pitch Changed Risk Management
|
||||
|
||||
#### Comparing The Horsemen
|
||||
|
||||
#### Major Risk Management Problems To Be Addressed
|
||||
|
||||
#### Notes
|
||||
|
||||
### Chapter 6: An Ivory Tower Of Babel: Fixing The Confusion About Risk
|
||||
|
||||
#### The Frank Knight Definition
|
||||
|
||||
#### Knight's Influence In Finance And Project Management
|
||||
|
||||
#### A Construction Engineering Definition
|
||||
|
||||
#### Risk As Expected Loss
|
||||
|
||||
#### Defining Risk Tolerance
|
||||
|
||||
#### Defining Probability
|
||||
|
||||
#### Enriching The Lexicon
|
||||
|
||||
#### Notes
|
||||
|
||||
### Chapter 7: The Limits Of Expert Knowledge: Why We Don't Know What We Think We Know About Uncertainty
|
||||
|
||||
#### The Right Stuff: How A Group Of Psychologists Might Save Risk Analysis
|
||||
|
||||
#### Mental Math: Why We Shouldn't Trust The Numbers In Our Heads
|
||||
|
||||
#### "Catastrophic" Overconfidence
|
||||
|
||||
#### The Mind Of "Aces": Possible Causes And Consequences Of Overconfidence
|
||||
|
||||
#### Inconsistencies And Artifacts: What Shouldn't Matter Does
|
||||
|
||||
#### Answers To Calibration Tests
|
||||
|
||||
#### Notes
|
||||
|
||||
### Chapter 8: Worse Than Useless: The Most Popular Risk Assessment Method And Why It Doesn't Work
|
||||
|
||||
#### A Few Examples Of Scores And Matrices
|
||||
|
||||
#### Does That Come In "Medium"?: Why Ambiguity Does Not Offset Uncertainty
|
||||
|
||||
#### Unintended Effects Of Scales: What You Don't Know Can Hurt You
|
||||
|
||||
#### Different But Similar-Sounding Methods And Similar But Different-Sounding Methods
|
||||
|
||||
#### Notes
|
||||
|
||||
### Chapter 9: Bears, Swans And Other Obstacles To Improved Risk Management
|
||||
|
||||
#### Algorithm Aversion And A Key Fallacy
|
||||
|
||||
#### Algorithms Versus Experts: Generalizing The Findings
|
||||
|
||||
#### A Note About Black Swans
|
||||
|
||||
#### Major Mathematical Misconceptions
|
||||
|
||||
#### We're Special: The Belief That Risk Analysis Might Work, But Not Here
|
||||
|
||||
#### Notes
|
||||
|
||||
### Chapter 10: Where Even The Quants Go Wrong: Common And Fundamental Errors In Quantitative Models
|
||||
|
||||
#### A Survey Of Analysts Using Monte Carlos
|
||||
|
||||
#### The Risk Paradox
|
||||
|
||||
#### Financial Models And The Shape Of Disaster: Why Normal Isn't So Normal
|
||||
|
||||
#### Following Your Inner Cow: The Problem With Correlations
|
||||
|
||||
#### The Measurement Inversion
|
||||
|
||||
#### Is Monte Carlo Too Complicated?
|
||||
|
||||
#### Notes
|
||||
|
||||
## Part Three: How To Fix It
|
||||
|
||||
### Chapter 11: Starting With What Works
|
||||
|
||||
#### Speak The Language
|
||||
|
||||
#### Getting Your Probabilities Calibrated
|
||||
|
||||
#### Using Data For Initial Benchmarks
|
||||
|
||||
#### Checking The Substitution
|
||||
|
||||
#### Simple Risk Management
|
||||
|
||||
#### Notes
|
||||
|
||||
### Chapter 12: Improving The Model
|
||||
|
||||
#### Empirical Inputs
|
||||
|
||||
#### Adding Detail To The Model
|
||||
|
||||
#### Advanced Methods For Improving Expert's Subjective Estimates
|
||||
|
||||
#### Other Monte Carlo Tools
|
||||
|
||||
#### Self-Examinations For Modelers
|
||||
|
||||
#### Notes
|
||||
|
||||
### Chapter 13: The Risk Community: Intra- And Extra-Organizational Issues Of Risk Management
|
||||
|
||||
#### Getting Organized
|
||||
|
||||
#### Managing The Model
|
||||
|
||||
#### Incentives For A Calibrated Culture
|
||||
|
||||
#### Extraorganizational Issues: Solutions Beyond Your Office Building
|
||||
|
||||
##### Growing the Profession
|
||||
|
||||
Of all the professions in risk management,
|
||||
that of the actuary is the only one
|
||||
that is actually a legally recognized profession.
|
||||
Becoming an actuary requires a demonstration of proficiency
|
||||
through several standardized tests.
|
||||
It also means adopting a code of professional ethics
|
||||
enforced by some licensing body.
|
||||
When actuaries sign their name
|
||||
to the Statement of Actuarial Opinion of an insurance company,
|
||||
they put their license on the line.
|
||||
As with doctors and lawyers,
|
||||
if they lose their license, they cannot just get another job next door.
|
||||
The industry of modelers of uncertainties outside of insurance
|
||||
could benefit greatly from this level of professional standards.
|
||||
|
||||
Standards organizations,
|
||||
government affiliated and otherwise,
|
||||
have always been a key part of what makes a profession a profession.
|
||||
But standards organizations such as PMI, NIST, and others
|
||||
are all guilty of explicitly promoting
|
||||
the ineffectual methods previously debunked.
|
||||
The scoring methods developed by these institutions
|
||||
should be disposed of altogether.
|
||||
These organizations should stay out of the business
|
||||
of designing risk analysis methods
|
||||
until they begin to involve people with quantitative decision analysis backgrounds
|
||||
in their standards-development process.
|
||||
Professionals should take charge of the direction their profession evolves
|
||||
by insisting the standards move in this direction.
|
||||
|
||||
#### Practical Observations From Trustmark
|
||||
|
||||
#### Final Thoughts On Quantitative Models And Better Decisions
|
||||
|
||||
#### Notes
|
||||
|
||||
## Appendix: Additional Calibration Tests And Answers
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,584 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
id:
|
||||
aliases: []
|
||||
title: "Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, Fifth Edition"
|
||||
tags:
|
||||
- authorship/other
|
||||
- destiny/permanent/entry-point
|
||||
- exclude-from-word-count
|
||||
- status/incomplete
|
||||
- topic/risk
|
||||
- type/media
|
||||
authors:
|
||||
- Stuart A. Klugman
|
||||
- Harry H. Panjer
|
||||
- Gordon E. Willmot
|
||||
publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
|
||||
series: Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics
|
||||
type: book
|
||||
year: 2019
|
||||
---
|
||||
# Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, Fifth Edition
|
||||
|
||||
%%
|
||||
This note, with the exception of comments like this one
|
||||
(reserved for notes on transcription)
|
||||
consists only of content from the text.
|
||||
For commentary see the companion [[loss-models]].
|
||||
%%
|
||||
|
||||
## Part I Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
### 1. Modeling
|
||||
|
||||
#### 1.1 The Model-Based Approach
|
||||
|
||||
##### 1.1.1 The Modeling Process
|
||||
|
||||
The model-based approach
|
||||
should be considered in the context of the objectives of any given problem.
|
||||
Many problems in actuarial science
|
||||
involve the building of a mathematical model
|
||||
that can be used to forecast or predict insurance costs in the future.
|
||||
|
||||
##### 1.1.2 The Modeling Advantage
|
||||
|
||||
#### 1.2 The Organization of This Book
|
||||
|
||||
### 2. Random Variables
|
||||
|
||||
#### 2.1 Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
#### 2.2 Key Functions and Four Models
|
||||
|
||||
##### 2.2.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
### 3. Basic Distributional Quantities
|
||||
|
||||
#### 3.1 Moments
|
||||
|
||||
##### 3.1.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 3.2 Percentiles
|
||||
|
||||
##### 3.2.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 3.3 Generating Functions and Sums of Random Variables
|
||||
|
||||
##### 3.3.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 3.4 Tails of Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
##### 3.4.1 Classification Based on Moments
|
||||
|
||||
##### 3.4.2 Comparison Based on Limiting Tail
|
||||
|
||||
##### 3.4.3 Classification Based on the Hazard Rate Function
|
||||
|
||||
##### 3.4.4 Classification Based on the Mean Excess Loss Function The mean excess
|
||||
|
||||
##### 3.4.5 Equilibrium Distributions and Tail Behavior
|
||||
|
||||
##### 3.4.6 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 3.5 Measures of Risk
|
||||
|
||||
##### 3.5.1 Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
##### 3.5.2 Risk Measures and Coherence
|
||||
|
||||
##### 3.5.3 Value at Risk
|
||||
|
||||
##### 3.5.4 Tail Value of Risk
|
||||
|
||||
##### 3.5.5 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
## Part II Actuarial Models
|
||||
|
||||
### 4. Characteristics Of Actuarial Models
|
||||
|
||||
#### 4.1 Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
#### 4.2 The Role of Parameters
|
||||
|
||||
##### 4.2.1 Parametric and Scale Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
##### 4.2.2 Parametric Distribution Families
|
||||
|
||||
##### 4.2.3 Finite Mixture Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
##### 4.2.4 Data-Dependent Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
##### 4.2.5 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
### 5. Continuous Models
|
||||
|
||||
#### 5.1 Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
#### 5.2 Creating New Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
##### 5.2.1 Multiplication by a Constant
|
||||
|
||||
##### 5.2.2 Raising to a Power
|
||||
|
||||
##### 5.2.3 Exponentiation
|
||||
|
||||
##### 5.2.4 Mixing
|
||||
|
||||
##### 5.2.5 Frailty Models
|
||||
|
||||
##### 5.2.6 Splicing
|
||||
|
||||
##### 5.2.7 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 5.3 Selected Distributions and Their Relationships
|
||||
|
||||
##### 5.3.1 Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
##### 5.3.2 Two Parametric Families
|
||||
|
||||
##### 5.3.3 Limiting Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
##### 5.3.4 Two Heavy-Tailed Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
##### 5.3.5 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 5.4 The Linear Exponential Family
|
||||
|
||||
##### 5.4.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
### 6. Discrete Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
#### 6.1 Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
##### 6.1.1 Exercise
|
||||
|
||||
#### 6.2 The Poisson Distribution
|
||||
|
||||
#### 6.3 The Negative Binomial Distribution
|
||||
|
||||
#### 6.4 The Binomial Distribution
|
||||
|
||||
#### 6.5 The (a,b) Class
|
||||
|
||||
##### 6.5.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 6.6 Truncation and Modification at zero
|
||||
|
||||
##### 6.6.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
### 7. Advanced Discrete Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
#### 7.1 Compound Frequency Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
##### 7.1.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 7.2 Further Properties of the Compound Poisson Class
|
||||
|
||||
##### 7.2.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 7.3 Mixed-Frequency Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
##### 7.3.1 The General Mixed-Frequency Distribution
|
||||
|
||||
##### 7.3.2 Mixed Poisson Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
##### 7.3.3 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 7.4 The Effect of Exposure on Frequency
|
||||
|
||||
#### 7.5 An Inventory of Discrete Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
##### 7.5.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
### 8. Frequency And Severity With Coverage Modifications
|
||||
|
||||
#### 8.1 Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
#### 8.2 Deductibles
|
||||
|
||||
##### 8.2.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 8.3 The Loss Elimination Ratio and the Effect of Inflation for Ordinary Deductibles
|
||||
|
||||
##### 8.3.1 Exercise
|
||||
|
||||
#### 8.4 Policy Limits
|
||||
|
||||
##### 8.4.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 8.5 Coinsurance, Deductibles, and Limits
|
||||
|
||||
##### 8.5.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 8.6 The Impact of Deductibles on Claim Frequency
|
||||
|
||||
##### 8.6.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
### 9. Aggregate Loss Models
|
||||
|
||||
#### 9.1 Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
##### 9.1.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 9.2 Model Choices
|
||||
|
||||
##### 9.2.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 9.3 The Compound Model for Aggregate Claims
|
||||
|
||||
##### 9.3.1 Probabilities and Moments
|
||||
|
||||
##### 9.3.2 Stop-Loss Insurance
|
||||
|
||||
##### 9.3.3 The Tweedle Distribution
|
||||
|
||||
##### 9.3.4 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 9.4 Analytic Results
|
||||
|
||||
##### 9.4.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 9.5 Computing the Aggregate Claims Distribution
|
||||
|
||||
#### 9.6 The Recursive Method
|
||||
|
||||
##### 9.6.1 Applications to Compound Frequency Models
|
||||
|
||||
##### 9.6.2 Underflow/Overflow Problems
|
||||
|
||||
##### 9.6.3 Numerical Stability
|
||||
|
||||
##### 9.6.4 Continuous Severity
|
||||
|
||||
##### 9.6.5 Constructing Arithmetic Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
##### 9.6.6 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 9.7 The Impact of Individual Policy Modifications on Aggregate Payments
|
||||
|
||||
##### 9.7.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 9.8 The individual Risk Model
|
||||
|
||||
##### 9.8.1 The Model
|
||||
|
||||
##### 9.8.2 Parametric Approximation
|
||||
|
||||
##### 9.8.3 Compound Poisson Approximation
|
||||
|
||||
##### 9.8.4 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
## Part III Mathematical Statistics
|
||||
|
||||
### 10. Introduction To Mathematical Statistics
|
||||
|
||||
#### 10.1 Introduction and Four Data Sets
|
||||
|
||||
#### 10.2 Point Estimation
|
||||
|
||||
##### 10.2.1 Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
##### 10.2.2 Measures of Quality
|
||||
|
||||
##### 10.2.3 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 10.3 Interval Estimation
|
||||
|
||||
##### 10.3.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 10.4 The Construction of Parametric Estimators
|
||||
|
||||
##### 10.4.1 The Method of Moments and Percentile Matching
|
||||
|
||||
##### 10.4.2 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 10.5 Tests of Hypotheses
|
||||
|
||||
##### 10.5.1 Exercise
|
||||
|
||||
### 11. Maximum Likelihood Estimation
|
||||
|
||||
#### 11.1 Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
#### 11.2 Individual Data
|
||||
|
||||
##### 11.2.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 11.3 Grouped Data
|
||||
|
||||
##### 11.3.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 11.4 Truncated or Censored Data
|
||||
|
||||
##### 11.4.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 11.5 Variance and Interval Estimation for Maximum Likelihood Estimators
|
||||
|
||||
##### 11.5.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 11.6 Functions of Asymptotically Normal Estimators
|
||||
|
||||
##### 11.6.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 11.7 Nonnormal Confidence Intervals
|
||||
|
||||
##### 11.7.1 Exercise
|
||||
|
||||
### 12. Frequentist Estimation For Discrete Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
#### 12.1 The Poisson Distribution
|
||||
|
||||
#### 12.2 The Negative Binomial Distribution
|
||||
|
||||
#### 12.3 The Binomial Distribution
|
||||
|
||||
#### 12.4 The (a,b) Class
|
||||
|
||||
#### 12.5 Compound Models
|
||||
|
||||
#### 12.6 The Effect of Exposure on Maximum Likelihood Estimation
|
||||
|
||||
#### 12.7 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
### 13. Bayesian Estimation
|
||||
|
||||
#### 13.1 Definitions and Bayes' Theorem
|
||||
|
||||
#### 13.2 Inference and Prediction
|
||||
|
||||
##### 13.2.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 13.3 Conjugate Prior Distributions and the Linear Exponential Family
|
||||
|
||||
##### 13.3.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 13.4 Computational Issues
|
||||
|
||||
## Part IV Construction Of Models
|
||||
|
||||
### 14. Construction Of Empirical Models
|
||||
|
||||
#### 14.1 The Empirical Distribution
|
||||
|
||||
#### 14.2 Empirical Distributions for Grouped Data
|
||||
|
||||
##### 14.2.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 14.3 Empirical Estimation with Right Censored Data
|
||||
|
||||
##### 14.3.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 14.4 Empirical Estimation of Moments
|
||||
|
||||
##### 14.4.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 14.5 Empirical Estimation with Left Truncated Data
|
||||
|
||||
##### 14.5.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 14.6 Kernel Density Models
|
||||
|
||||
##### 14.6.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 14.7 Approximations for large Data Sets
|
||||
|
||||
##### 14.7.1 Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
##### 14.7.2 Using Individual Data Points
|
||||
|
||||
##### 14.7.3 Interval-Based Methods
|
||||
|
||||
##### 14.7.4 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 14.8 Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Decrement Probabilities
|
||||
|
||||
##### 14.8.1 Exercise
|
||||
|
||||
#### 14.9 Estimation of Transition Intensities
|
||||
|
||||
### 15. Model Selection
|
||||
|
||||
#### 15.1 Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
#### 15.2 Representations of the Data and Model
|
||||
|
||||
#### 15.3 Graphical Comparison of the Density and Distribution Functions
|
||||
|
||||
##### 15.3.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 15.4 Hypothesis Tests
|
||||
|
||||
##### 15.4.1 The Kolmogorov--Smirnov Test
|
||||
|
||||
##### 15.4.2 The Anderson--Darling Test
|
||||
|
||||
##### 15.4.3 The Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test
|
||||
|
||||
##### 15.4.4 The Likelihood Ratio Test
|
||||
|
||||
##### 15.4.5 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 15.5 Selecting a Model
|
||||
|
||||
##### 15.5.1 Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
##### 15.2.2 Judgement-Based Approaches
|
||||
|
||||
##### 15.5.3 Score-Based Approaches
|
||||
|
||||
##### 15.5.4 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
## Part V Credibility
|
||||
|
||||
### 16. Introduction To Limited Fluctuation Credibility
|
||||
|
||||
#### 16.1 Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
#### 16.2 Limited Fluctuation Credibility Theory
|
||||
|
||||
#### 16.3 Full Credibility
|
||||
|
||||
#### 16.4 Partial Credibility
|
||||
|
||||
#### 16.5 Problems with the Approach
|
||||
|
||||
#### 16.6 Notes and References
|
||||
|
||||
#### 16.7 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
### 17. Greatest Accuracy Credibility
|
||||
|
||||
#### 17.1 Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
#### 17.2 Conditional Distributions and Expectation
|
||||
|
||||
#### 17.3 The Bayesian Methodology
|
||||
|
||||
#### 17.4 The Credibility Premium
|
||||
|
||||
#### 17.5 The Bühlmann Model
|
||||
|
||||
#### 17.6 The Bühlmann--Straub Model
|
||||
|
||||
#### 17.7 Exact Credibility
|
||||
|
||||
#### 17.8 Notes and References
|
||||
|
||||
#### 17.9 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
### 18. Empirical Bayes Parameter Estimation
|
||||
|
||||
#### 18.1 Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
#### 18.2 Nonparametric Estimation
|
||||
|
||||
#### 18.3 Semiparametric Estimation
|
||||
|
||||
#### 18.4 Notes and References
|
||||
|
||||
#### 18.5 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
## Part VI Simulation
|
||||
|
||||
### 19. Simulation
|
||||
|
||||
#### 19.1 Basics of Simulation
|
||||
|
||||
##### 19.1.1 The Simulation Approach
|
||||
|
||||
##### 19.1.2 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 19.2 Simulation for Specific Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
##### 19.2.1 Discrete Mixtures
|
||||
|
||||
##### 19.2.2 Time or Age of Death from a Life Table
|
||||
|
||||
##### 19.2.3 Simulating from the (a,b) Class
|
||||
|
||||
##### 19.2.4 Normal and Lognormal Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
##### 19.2.5 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 19.3 Determining the Sample Size
|
||||
|
||||
##### 19.3.1 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
#### 19.4 Examples of Simulation in Actuarial Modeling
|
||||
|
||||
##### 19.4.1 Aggregate Loss Calculations
|
||||
|
||||
##### 19.4.2 Examples of Lack of Independence
|
||||
|
||||
##### 19.4.3 Simulation Analysis of the Two Examples
|
||||
|
||||
##### 19.4.4 The Use of Simulation to Determine Risk Measures
|
||||
|
||||
##### 19.4.5 Statistical Analyses
|
||||
|
||||
##### 19.4.6 Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
## Appendix A An Inventory Of Continuous Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
### A.1 Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
### A.2 The Transformed Beta Family
|
||||
|
||||
#### A.2.1 The Four-Parameter Distribution
|
||||
|
||||
#### A.2.2 Three-Parameter Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
#### A.2.3 Two-Parameter Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
### A.3 The Transformed Gamma Family
|
||||
|
||||
#### A.3.1 Three-Parameter Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
#### A.3.2 Two-Parameter Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
#### A.3.3 One-Parameter Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
### A.4 Distributions For Large Losses
|
||||
|
||||
#### A.4.1 Extreme Value Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
#### A.4.2 Generalized Pareto Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
### A.4.5 Other Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
### A.4.6 Distributions With Finite Support
|
||||
|
||||
## Appendix B An Inventory Of Discrete Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
### B.1 Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
### B.2 The (a,b,0) Class
|
||||
|
||||
### B.3 The (a,b,1) Class
|
||||
|
||||
#### B.3.1 The Zero-Truncated Subclass
|
||||
|
||||
#### B.3.2 The Zero-Modified Subclass
|
||||
|
||||
### B.4 The Compound Class
|
||||
|
||||
#### B.4.1 Some Compound Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
### B.5 A Hierarchy Of Discrete Distributions
|
||||
|
||||
## Appendix C Frequency And Severity Relationships
|
||||
|
||||
## Appendix D The Recursive Formula
|
||||
|
||||
## Appendix E Discretization Of The Severity Distribution
|
||||
|
||||
### E.1 The Method Of Rounding
|
||||
|
||||
### E.2 Mean Preserving
|
||||
|
||||
### E.3 Undiscretization Of A Discretized Distribution
|
||||
|
||||
## References
|
||||
|
||||
## Index
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
id:
|
||||
aliases: []
|
||||
tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- status/incomplete
|
||||
- type/media-commentary
|
||||
- topic/risk
|
||||
title: "Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, Fifth Edition"
|
||||
---
|
||||
# _Loss Models_
|
||||
|
||||
This is the commentary companion to [[klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models]]
|
||||
|
||||
> [!cite] 1.1 "The Model-Based Approach"
|
||||
> The model-based approach
|
||||
> should be considered in the context of the objectives of any given problem.
|
||||
+44
-54
@@ -1,87 +1,77 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
id:
|
||||
aliases: []
|
||||
title: Misc Budgets Takeoff
|
||||
tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- occupational/takeoff
|
||||
- status/draft
|
||||
- type/guide
|
||||
title: Misc Budgets
|
||||
---
|
||||
# Misc Budgets
|
||||
# Misc Budgets Takeoff
|
||||
|
||||
* `Drawing` = "N/A"
|
||||
* `System` = "EL - Electrical"
|
||||
|
||||
## Slab Deck
|
||||
|
||||
* `Drawing` = "N/A"
|
||||
* `Area` = "Typical - ..."
|
||||
* `System` = "EL - Electrical"
|
||||
Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`MISC PDI PRODUCT`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK & FEEDER`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK (NAILS, PAINT, TAPE, ETC = $250)`
|
||||
* **Count** = 1
|
||||
|
||||
Create `Area` Typicals for every concrete slab floor:
|
||||
1. * `Area` = "Typical - Building All Levels"
|
||||
* 1 each level except roof
|
||||
* _High Density:_ 1 per Section
|
||||
* `Phase` = "Building - BOH, Storage & Common"
|
||||
|
||||
* 'All Building'
|
||||
* 1 each level except roof
|
||||
* _High Density:_ 1 per Section
|
||||
|
||||
`Phase` = "Building - BOH, Storage & Common"
|
||||
|
||||
* 'All Garage'
|
||||
* 1 each level
|
||||
|
||||
`Phase` = "Garage"
|
||||
|
||||
In each Typical:
|
||||
|
||||
* Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`MISC PDI PRODUCT`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK & FEEDER`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK (NAILS, PAINT, TAPE, ETC = $250)`
|
||||
* 1 Takeoff each Typical
|
||||
* **Count** = 1
|
||||
2. * `Area` = "Typical - Garage All Levels"
|
||||
* `Phase` = "Garage"
|
||||
|
||||
## Temporary Power & Lighting
|
||||
|
||||
### Temp Power
|
||||
|
||||
* `Area` = "2 - Site"
|
||||
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
|
||||
* `System` = "TPS - Temp Power Service (Site)"
|
||||
* `BidItem` = "1 - Site"
|
||||
1. * `Area` = "2 - Site"
|
||||
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
|
||||
* `System` = "TPS - Temp Power Service (Site)"
|
||||
* `BidItem` = "1 - Site"
|
||||
|
||||
* Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`TEMPORARY POWER - ... SERVICE`
|
||||
Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`TEMPORARY POWER - ... SERVICE`
|
||||
* **Count** = 1
|
||||
|
||||
### Temp Lighting (Building)
|
||||
### Temp Lighting
|
||||
|
||||
* `Area` = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Building"
|
||||
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
|
||||
* `System` = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
|
||||
* `BidItem` = "3 - Building"
|
||||
1. * `Area` = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Building"
|
||||
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
|
||||
* `System` = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
|
||||
* `BidItem` = "3 - Building"
|
||||
|
||||
`ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/...
|
||||
`ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/...
|
||||
|
||||
_Garden Style:_
|
||||
* Takeoff: .../`TEMPORARY POWER - T POLE (EACH)`
|
||||
* **Count** = 1 per 150ft per building
|
||||
_Garden Style:_
|
||||
* Takeoff: .../`TEMPORARY POWER - T POLE (EACH)`
|
||||
* **Count** = 1 per 150ft per building
|
||||
|
||||
_All others:_
|
||||
* Takeoff: .../`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)`
|
||||
* **Count** = Building GSF = Total GSF - Garage GSF
|
||||
_All others:_
|
||||
* Takeoff: .../`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)`
|
||||
* **Count** = Building GSF = Total GSF - Garage GSF
|
||||
|
||||
### Temp Lighting (Garage)
|
||||
1. * `Area` = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Garage"
|
||||
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
|
||||
* `System` = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
|
||||
* `BidItem` = "2 - Garage"
|
||||
|
||||
* `Area` = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Garage"
|
||||
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
|
||||
* `System` = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
|
||||
* `BidItem` = "2 - Garage"
|
||||
|
||||
* Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)`
|
||||
* **Count** = Garage GSF
|
||||
Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)`
|
||||
* **Count** = Garage GSF
|
||||
|
||||
## Irrigation Pumps
|
||||
|
||||
* `Area` = "2 - Site"
|
||||
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
|
||||
* `System` = "MISC - Site Miscellaneous"
|
||||
* `BidItem` = "1 - Site"
|
||||
1. * `Area` = "2 - Site"
|
||||
* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
|
||||
* `System` = "MISC - Site Miscellaneous"
|
||||
* `BidItem` = "1 - Site"
|
||||
|
||||
Takeoff: `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MECHANICAL CONNECTIONS (UP TO 100A)`/`PVC - LT NM FLEX (CARFLEX)`/`30A 3PH MECH CONN (200') 3/4" PVC 4#10 - CARFLEX`
|
||||
* **Count** = 3
|
||||
* Prepend to name: "Irrigation Pumps - "
|
||||
Takeoff: `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MECHANICAL CONNECTIONS (UP TO 100A)`/`PVC - LT NM FLEX (CARFLEX)`/`30A 3PH MECH CONN (200') 3/4" PVC 4#10 - CARFLEX`
|
||||
* **Count** = 3
|
||||
|
||||
Prepend to name: "Irrigation Pumps - "
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -12,10 +12,10 @@ title: "NFPA 101: Life Safety Code (2018)"
|
||||
---
|
||||
# NFPA 101: Life Safety Code (2018)
|
||||
|
||||
<!--
|
||||
%%
|
||||
This note is provided for future use.
|
||||
Chapter headings can be extracted to new files with format `nfpa-101_00.md`.
|
||||
-->
|
||||
%%
|
||||
|
||||
## Chapter 1 Administration
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ Part V provides calculation methods for farm loads.
|
||||
|
||||
### Figure 220.1 Branch-Circuit, Feeder, and Service Load Calculation Methods.
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- TODO: FIGURE OMITTED -->
|
||||
%% TODO: FIGURE OMITTED %%
|
||||
|
||||
### 220.3 Other Articles for Specific-Purpose Calculations.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -734,7 +734,7 @@ One of the following methods of support shall be used:
|
||||
|
||||
4. Other approved means.
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- TODO: TEXT OMITTED -->
|
||||
%% TODO: TEXT OMITTED %%
|
||||
|
||||
### 300.20 Induced Currents in Ferrous Metal Enclosures or Ferrous Metal Raceways.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -12,10 +12,10 @@ title: "NFPA 72: National Fire Alarm and Signaling Code (2019)"
|
||||
---
|
||||
# NFPA 72: National Fire Alarm and Signaling Code (2019)
|
||||
|
||||
<!--
|
||||
%%
|
||||
This note is provided for future use.
|
||||
Chapter headings can be extracted to new files with format `nfpa-72_00.md`.
|
||||
-->
|
||||
%%
|
||||
|
||||
## Chapter 1 Administration
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ on the stale patterns developed for marginally similar applications decades ago.
|
||||
> If you could just do what they're trying to do correctly,
|
||||
> you probably wouldn't need all these optimizations anyway.
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- TODO:
|
||||
%% TODO:
|
||||
|
||||
Count-based takeoff speed increases with count.
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -34,7 +34,7 @@ Optimizing the takeoff process means:
|
||||
* _Minimizing_ the need for information outside of drawings
|
||||
* _Maximizing_ organizational consistency
|
||||
|
||||
-->
|
||||
%%
|
||||
|
||||
## More "Innovative" Patterns
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -78,10 +78,10 @@ each adjusts the prior to calculate the expected quantity for all 18 levels.
|
||||
|
||||
### Sketch-Based Lookup
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- TODO:
|
||||
%% TODO:
|
||||
This section is a transcription of a dictation.
|
||||
To be condensed.
|
||||
-->
|
||||
%%
|
||||
|
||||
A better use for computer vision in estimating
|
||||
is sketch based assembly lookup.
|
||||
|
||||
+13
-9
@@ -11,9 +11,9 @@ title: Pre-Takeoff Research
|
||||
---
|
||||
# Pre-Takeoff Research
|
||||
|
||||
<!--
|
||||
%%
|
||||
This note should be arranged chronologically:
|
||||
-->
|
||||
%%
|
||||
|
||||
> [!important] Requirement Precedence
|
||||
> In case of conflict:
|
||||
@@ -21,20 +21,24 @@ This note should be arranged chronologically:
|
||||
> are superseded by the terms of our proposal,
|
||||
> which are superseded by specific direction from the bid team.
|
||||
|
||||
<!--
|
||||
%%
|
||||
Where NEC, IBC, and other applicable codes fall in this hierarchy
|
||||
is subject to some debate.
|
||||
-->
|
||||
%%
|
||||
|
||||
> [!aside] "Plans & Specs"
|
||||
> The oft repeated "per plans and specs" is a gross oversimplification:
|
||||
> The RFP documents are more likely than not
|
||||
> to have one or more irreconcilable contradictions,
|
||||
> The RFP documents will---more likely than not---
|
||||
> have one or more irreconcilable contradictions,
|
||||
> or some instance of [[gold-plating]] too egregious to accept.
|
||||
> When ConEst takes of a project "per plans and specs",
|
||||
> When ConEst takes off a project "per plans and specs",
|
||||
> we are taking off _Bid's interpretation_ of the RFP documents,
|
||||
> which they must be able to articulate.
|
||||
|
||||
%%
|
||||
The limitations of Bid's authority are currently being questioned
|
||||
%%
|
||||
|
||||
Seek to use the cheapest method,
|
||||
as determined by Senior Construction Estimator
|
||||
and Database Administrator,
|
||||
@@ -114,9 +118,9 @@ _without respect for voltage drop_.
|
||||
* Riser Diagram
|
||||
* Subfeed schedule (if present)
|
||||
|
||||
<!--
|
||||
%%
|
||||
TODO: Create flow chart for wiring methods.
|
||||
Some cases to mention:
|
||||
* Deck thickness (minimum 3x conduit outer diameter)
|
||||
* Renovations (may not be able to run in slab)
|
||||
-->
|
||||
%%
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -56,7 +56,7 @@ See [[gold-plating]].
|
||||
* Make profit to meet growth target
|
||||
* Secure work for current and projected employees (fill backlog)
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- TODO: "Determine the sale price of a service" -->
|
||||
%% TODO: "Determine the sale price of a service" %%
|
||||
|
||||
> [!aside]
|
||||
> I take increasing issue with the common model
|
||||
|
||||
+1
-1
@@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ title: Raceway Terms
|
||||
> "Duct bank" is not given explicit definition in the NEC,
|
||||
> however it is used frequently to refer to any group of **ducts**,
|
||||
> _even as few as one_, as shown in Figure 310.60(C)(3).
|
||||
> It is always spelled as two words.
|
||||
> ==It is always spelled as two words.==
|
||||
|
||||
## "Wiring Method"
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ Only escalate if you are still uncertain.
|
||||
|
||||
## Writing Process Notes
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- TODO: -->
|
||||
%% TODO: %%
|
||||
|
||||
### `TALK`
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -59,4 +59,4 @@ Prepare for any obvious clarifying questions.
|
||||
|
||||
### Choosing Your Target
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- TODO: -->
|
||||
%% TODO: %%
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -20,11 +20,11 @@ title: Separating Estimating Concerns
|
||||
> It is traditionally understood as a principle strictly of _software_ design,
|
||||
> however its applications are universal.
|
||||
|
||||
<!--
|
||||
%%
|
||||
Minimize takeoff flow disruption
|
||||
|
||||
Decouple takeoff (description of work) from assembly selection:
|
||||
-->
|
||||
%%
|
||||
|
||||
## 1. Annotation
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ determine relative impact of factors
|
||||
* Delunay triangulation
|
||||
* Voronoi diagrams
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- TODO: link paper on procedural generation of single family homes -->
|
||||
%% TODO: link paper on procedural generation of single family homes %%
|
||||
|
||||
## Average Distance Given Area
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -149,7 +149,7 @@ They are always? of [[tags#destiny/fleeting]].
|
||||
|
||||
### #type/task
|
||||
|
||||
<!--TODO-->
|
||||
%%TODO%%
|
||||
|
||||
### #type/guide
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -173,11 +173,11 @@ They are always? of [[tags#authorship/original]].
|
||||
|
||||
### #type/anecdote
|
||||
|
||||
<!--TODO-->
|
||||
%%TODO%%
|
||||
|
||||
### #type/media-commentary
|
||||
|
||||
<!--TODO-->
|
||||
%%TODO%%
|
||||
|
||||
## #authorship
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
+51
-53
@@ -19,22 +19,22 @@ title: Telecom
|
||||
> [!important]
|
||||
> Not to be confused with [[low-voltage-takeoff]].
|
||||
|
||||
## Note: Empty Conduit
|
||||
|
||||
Where `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY & DUCTBANK CONDUIT`/...
|
||||
is specified, `FEEDER CONDUIT AND WIRE`/...
|
||||
is also acceptable.
|
||||
|
||||
## "Site Low Voltage Duct Bank"
|
||||
|
||||
* Conduit from outside of building to MDF
|
||||
1. * `Area` = "2 - Site"
|
||||
* `Phase` = "Site"
|
||||
* `System` = "LVD - Site Low Voltage Ductbank"
|
||||
* `Bid Item` = "1 - Site"
|
||||
|
||||
| | |
|
||||
| ---------- | --------------------------------- |
|
||||
| `Area` | "2 - Site" |
|
||||
| `Phase` | "Site" |
|
||||
| `System` | "LVD - Site Low Voltage Ductbank" |
|
||||
| `Bid Item` | "1 - Site" |
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY CONDUIT`
|
||||
|
||||
Size and quantity per proposal > drawings > assume (4) 4"C
|
||||
|
||||
* **Length** = Length measured from MDF to 5ft beyond building footprint
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY & DUCTBANK CONDUIT`/...
|
||||
* Size and quantity per proposal > drawings > assume (4) 4"C
|
||||
* **Length** = Length measured from MDF to 5ft beyond building footprint
|
||||
|
||||
_Garden Style:_ Outside of every building
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -47,80 +47,78 @@ _Garden Style:_ Outside of every building
|
||||
"Quazite Box"
|
||||
polymer concrete enclosure
|
||||
|
||||
`TEMPORARY ITEMS`/...
|
||||
1. `TEMPORARY ITEMS`/`Quazite Box ...`
|
||||
* **Material Price** = 1000.00
|
||||
* **Labor Hours** = 12.00
|
||||
* **Sort Code ?** = 200
|
||||
|
||||
* **Material Price** = 1000.00
|
||||
* **Labor Hours** = 12.00
|
||||
* **Sort Code**? = 200
|
||||
Alternative
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`POLES / EXCAVATION / CORING / UG PULL BX`/`MANHOLES / PULL BOXES / EXCAVATION / CONCRETE`/...
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`POLES / EXCAVATION / CORING / UG PULL BX`/`MANHOLES / PULL BOXES / EXCAVATION / CONCRETE`/...
|
||||
|
||||
## Backbone Riser
|
||||
|
||||
* `Phase` = "Building - BOH ..."
|
||||
* `System` = "TC - Telecom Backbone"
|
||||
|
||||
(2) 4"C or (4) 4"C ULO
|
||||
|
||||
| | |
|
||||
| --------- | ------------------------------- |
|
||||
| `Phase` | "Building - BOH ..." |
|
||||
| `System` | "TC - Telecom Backbone" |
|
||||
|
||||
Add sleeves
|
||||
|
||||
### Horizontal Backbone
|
||||
|
||||
| | |
|
||||
| --------- | --------------------- |
|
||||
| `Drawing` | Telecom riser diagram |
|
||||
| `Area` | Area of riser room |
|
||||
1. * `Drawing` = Telecom riser diagram
|
||||
* `Area` = Area of riser room
|
||||
|
||||
* **Length** = Length measured from MDF to IDF.
|
||||
* Input adder length to reach the level of the IDF (Minimum 15ft).
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY & DUCTBANK CONDUIT`/...
|
||||
* **Length** = Length measured from MDF to IDF
|
||||
* Input adder length to reach the level of the IDF (Minimum 15ft).
|
||||
|
||||
### Vertical Backbone
|
||||
|
||||
| | |
|
||||
| --------- | ------------------------------- |
|
||||
| `Drawing` | Telecom riser diagram |
|
||||
| `Area` | "Typical - Building All Levels" |
|
||||
1. * `Drawing` = Telecom riser diagram
|
||||
* `Area` = "Typical - Building All Levels"
|
||||
|
||||
* **Length** = Length between floors (15ft ULO)
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY & DUCTBANK CONDUIT`/...
|
||||
* Delete elbows if unnecessary.
|
||||
* **Length** = Height between floors (Minimum 15ft)
|
||||
|
||||
## Telecom Backboard
|
||||
|
||||
As shown on plans.
|
||||
As shown on plans, only if not excluded in pro
|
||||
|
||||
| | |
|
||||
| -------- | ------------------------------- |
|
||||
| `Phase` | "Building - BOH ..." |
|
||||
| `System` | "TC - Telecom Backbone" |
|
||||
1. * `Phase` = "Building - BOH ..."
|
||||
* `System` = "TC - Telecom Backbone"
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MISC ASSEMBLIES`/`... PLYWOOD BACKBOARD`
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MISC ASSEMBLIES`/`... PLYWOOD BACKBOARD`
|
||||
* **Count** = As shown
|
||||
|
||||
## Corridor Conduit (Unit MSDE to IDF)
|
||||
|
||||
Empty conduit, either of
|
||||
* `FEEDER CONDUIT AND WIRE`/...
|
||||
* `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY & DUCTBANK CONDUIT`/...
|
||||
|
||||
One Takeoff per Area per level
|
||||
|
||||
* **Length** = Average of subfeed lengths × # of Units
|
||||
* **Count** = # of Units
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY & DUCTBANK CONDUIT`/...
|
||||
* **Length** = Average of subfeed lengths * # of Units
|
||||
* **Count** = # of Units
|
||||
|
||||
## Inner Duct
|
||||
|
||||
For future use (e.g. fiber)
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`TELECOM SYSTEMS`/`INNERDUCT`/`... (GP)`
|
||||
1. `TEMPORARY ITEMS`/`MaxCell 3" 3 Cell`
|
||||
* **Material Price** = 450.00/C
|
||||
* **Labor Hours** = 12.00/C
|
||||
|
||||
Alternative
|
||||
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`TELECOM SYSTEMS`/`INNERDUCT`/`... (GP)`
|
||||
|
||||
## Devices
|
||||
|
||||
As shown on plans. Ignore floor boxes, other electrical scope.
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`TELECOM SYSTEMS`/...
|
||||
* .../`BOH / AMENITY ASSEMBLIES`
|
||||
* .../`SCREWLESS DECORA COVERS UNITS / BOH`
|
||||
* .../`ROUGH IN ASSY`
|
||||
1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`TELECOM SYSTEMS`/...
|
||||
* .../`BOH / AMENITY ASSEMBLIES`
|
||||
* .../`SCREWLESS DECORA COVERS UNITS / BOH`
|
||||
* .../`ROUGH IN ASSY`
|
||||
|
||||
If system is included, take off _both_ rough-in and device assemblies
|
||||
in amenity areas.
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -1,19 +1,26 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
id: the-failure-of-risk-management
|
||||
aliases: []
|
||||
title: _The Failure of Risk Management_
|
||||
tags:
|
||||
- authorship/original
|
||||
- destiny/permanent
|
||||
- status/complete
|
||||
- topic/risk
|
||||
- type/media-commentary
|
||||
title: _The Failure of Risk Management_
|
||||
---
|
||||
# _The Failure of Risk Management_
|
||||
|
||||
The Failure of Risk Management
|
||||
(Why It's Broken and How to Fix It)
|
||||
by Douglas W. Hubbard
|
||||
This is the commentary companion to [[hubbard_2020_failure]].
|
||||
|
||||
_The Failure of Risk Management_ (abbreviated here as tFoRM)
|
||||
|
||||
tFoRM is has two chief concerns:
|
||||
|
||||
* introducing actuarial methods to industries other than insurance.
|
||||
|
||||
* discrediting arguments against the use of actuarial methods
|
||||
in industries other than insurance.
|
||||
|
||||
## Mentioned Topics and Abbreviations
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -22,7 +29,7 @@ by Douglas W. Hubbard
|
||||
* Actuarial Science
|
||||
* Options Theory (OT)
|
||||
* Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)
|
||||
* Probabalistic Risk Analysis (PRA)
|
||||
* Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA)
|
||||
* Value at Risk (VaR)
|
||||
* Loss-Exceedance Curve (LEC)
|
||||
* Risk Tolerance
|
||||
@@ -39,6 +46,7 @@ but not referred to as such.
|
||||
|
||||
As it is most commonly understood,
|
||||
risk _always_ implies a negative impact.
|
||||
Analyses that suggest otherwise are unhelpful.
|
||||
|
||||
For boolean cases,
|
||||
risk can be represented as a vector of **probability** and **loss**.
|
||||
@@ -112,7 +120,7 @@ where $Pr$ is the probability of Payoff.
|
||||
|
||||
Expert opinion is valuable, but its weaknesses must be compensated for.
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- TODO: -->
|
||||
%% TODO: %%
|
||||
|
||||
Experts tend to be good at creating heuristics,
|
||||
but do not apply them consistently in practice.
|
||||
@@ -251,3 +259,18 @@ Hubbard's dismissal rubs me wrong
|
||||
because it reads exactly as he describes the
|
||||
"at least we're doing _something_" argument
|
||||
throughout the book and just pages earlier.
|
||||
|
||||
## _Loss Models_
|
||||
|
||||
[[hubbard_2020_failure]] is obviously inspired in some part
|
||||
by [[klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models]] and its prior editions,
|
||||
which is strange because neither the text nor Klugman
|
||||
are mentioned in the text.
|
||||
|
||||
The opening line of _Loss Models_,
|
||||
|
||||
> [!quote] [[klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models#1.1.1 The Modeling Process]] (emphasis added)
|
||||
> The model-based approach should be considered
|
||||
> _in the context of the objectives of any given problem._
|
||||
|
||||
is just [[#_Exsupero Ursus_]].
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -9,7 +9,8 @@ tags:
|
||||
- type/media
|
||||
type: book
|
||||
title: Walden
|
||||
author: Henry David Thoreau
|
||||
authors:
|
||||
- Henry David Thoreau
|
||||
year: 1854
|
||||
---
|
||||
# Walden
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -64,10 +64,10 @@ though most would refuse to answer anyway (see [[estimating-culture]]).
|
||||
|
||||
#### Required Hyper-Specificity
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- TODO:
|
||||
%% TODO:
|
||||
This section is a transcription of a dictation.
|
||||
To be condensed.
|
||||
-->
|
||||
%%
|
||||
|
||||
The reason that it's such a big deal to change between 1-hole straps and and unistrut straps
|
||||
is because it takes so long to do.
|
||||
|
||||
+28
-14
@@ -25,24 +25,38 @@ title: Two-Way Takeoff
|
||||
|
||||
## Horizontal
|
||||
|
||||
> `Area` = Same as Fire Command Room
|
||||
1. * `Area` = Same as Fire Command Room
|
||||
|
||||
`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`TWO WAY COMMUNICATION ASSEMBLIES`/`2-WAY COMMUNICATION = 1" CONDUIT ...`
|
||||
|
||||
**Length** = Per drawings if shown, otherwise use longer of
|
||||
* FCR to elevator lobbies
|
||||
* FCR to stairwells
|
||||
|
||||
**Count** = Number of boxes run to. Per drawings if shown, otherwise use the greater of:
|
||||
* Count of elevators
|
||||
* Count of stairwells
|
||||
`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`TWO WAY COMMUNICATION ASSEMBLIES`/`2-WAY COMMUNICATION = 1" CONDUIT ...`
|
||||
|
||||
**Length** = Per drawings if shown, otherwise use longer of
|
||||
* FCR to elevator lobbies
|
||||
* FCR to stairwells
|
||||
|
||||
**Count** = Number of boxes run to. Per drawings if shown, otherwise use the greater of:
|
||||
* Count of elevators
|
||||
* Count of stairwells
|
||||
|
||||
## Vertical
|
||||
|
||||
> `Area` = "Typical - Building All Levels"
|
||||
1. * `Area` = "Typical - Building All Levels"
|
||||
|
||||
`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`TWO WAY COMMUNICATION ASSEMBLIES`/`2-WAY COMMUNICATION = 1" CONDUIT ...`
|
||||
`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`TWO WAY COMMUNICATION ASSEMBLIES`/`2-WAY COMMUNICATION = 1" CONDUIT ...`
|
||||
|
||||
* **Length** = 15ft * Count
|
||||
* **Count** = _match Horizontal_
|
||||
|
||||
**Length** = 15ft x Count
|
||||
## Firefighter Phone System
|
||||
|
||||
**Count** = match Horizontal
|
||||
> [!important]
|
||||
> These are ICC definition two-way communication systems,
|
||||
> redundant with the standard takeoff described above.
|
||||
> These assemblies can be ignored
|
||||
> unless given specific direction otherwise.
|
||||
> Confirmed by Joel Jansen 2025-12-08 in reference to 2100 Crystal Drive.
|
||||
|
||||
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`COMMUNICATION DEVICES ...`/`...`
|
||||
|
||||
* firefighter phone jacks
|
||||
* fire warden station
|
||||
* fire phone cabinet
|
||||
|
||||
+2
-2
@@ -56,7 +56,7 @@ is to delete the folder and re-clone.
|
||||
|
||||
### Create a GitHub Repository
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- TODO: -->
|
||||
%% TODO: %%
|
||||
|
||||
### Create and Push your Vault
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -74,4 +74,4 @@ git push -u origin main
|
||||
|
||||
Add and enable the Git Community Plugin.
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- TODO: -->
|
||||
%% TODO: %%
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ tags:
|
||||
- type/media
|
||||
type: book
|
||||
title: The Shadow of the Torturer
|
||||
author: Gene Wolfe
|
||||
authors:
|
||||
- Gene Wolfe
|
||||
year: 1980
|
||||
series: The Book of the New Sun
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
+2
-1
@@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ tags:
|
||||
- type/media
|
||||
type: book
|
||||
title: The Claw of the Conciliator
|
||||
author: Gene Wolfe
|
||||
authors:
|
||||
- Gene Wolfe
|
||||
year: 1981
|
||||
series: The Book of the New Sun
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
+2
-1
@@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ tags:
|
||||
- type/media
|
||||
type: book
|
||||
title: The Sword of the Lictor
|
||||
author: Gene Wolfe
|
||||
authors:
|
||||
- Gene Wolfe
|
||||
year: 1981
|
||||
series: The Book of the New Sun
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ tags:
|
||||
- type/media
|
||||
type: book
|
||||
title: The Citadel of the Autarch
|
||||
author: Gene Wolfe
|
||||
authors:
|
||||
- Gene Wolfe
|
||||
year: 1982
|
||||
series: The Book of the New Sun
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
+2
-1
@@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ tags:
|
||||
- type/media
|
||||
type: book
|
||||
title: The Urth of the New Sun
|
||||
author: Gene Wolfe
|
||||
authors:
|
||||
- Gene Wolfe
|
||||
year: 1987
|
||||
series: The Book of the New Sun
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user