vault backup: 2025-12-08 16:37:36

.obsidian/plugins/obsidian-linter/data.json

@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@
     },
     "insert-yaml-attributes": {
       "enabled": true,
-      "text-to-insert": "id:\naliases: []\ntags: []"
+      "text-to-insert": "id:\naliases: []\ntitle:\ntags: []"
     },
     "move-tags-to-yaml": {
       "enabled": false,
@@ -52,10 +52,10 @@
       "sort-order": "Ascending Alphabetical"
     },
     "yaml-key-sort": {
-      "enabled": false,
+      "enabled": true,
-      "yaml-key-priority-sort-order": "",
+      "yaml-key-priority-sort-order": "id\naliases\ntitle\ntags",
       "priority-keys-at-start-of-yaml": true,
-      "yaml-sort-order-for-other-keys": "None"
+      "yaml-sort-order-for-other-keys": "Ascending Alphabetical"
     },
     "yaml-timestamp": {
       "enabled": false,

1960-04-04_durant-daily-democrat.md

@@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ tags:
 type: article
 title: Rev. William Alexander And Wife Killed In Airplane Crash
 url: https://gateway.okhistory.org/ark:/67531/metadc2193346/
-author: Peterson, Robert H.
+authors:
+  - Peterson, Robert H.
 journal: Durant Daily Democrat (Durant, Okla.)
 volume: 59
 number: 172

2025-07-18_estimating-isnt-engineering.md

@@ -21,14 +21,14 @@ Specifically, they took issue with having to
 This puzzled me because the examples they gave
 sounded like stereotypical estimation problems.
 
-<!-- TODO: Include example -->
+%% TODO: Include example %%
 
-<!--
+%%
 TODO: discussion based on the difference between engineering,
 (which requires knowledge of subject matter)
 and estimation
 (which requires knowledge of ~~impact~~).
--->
+%%
 
 It's not engineering to budget for the most likely case.
 

2025-12-08.md

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+---
+id:
+aliases: []
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/draft
+  - type/daily
+title: 2025-12-08
+---
+# 2025-12-08
+
+## 2025-12-08 11:03
+
+I hate to come off as pedantic,
+but I care a lot about standardized terminology
+because spending a few minutes to be more thoughtful in specification
+can save hundreds of people cumulative hours of confusion.
+And the problem with standardization, of course,
+is that sometimes it works,
+and undoing years of poor conditioning is... not easy.

Leslie_1968_Gregg-Notehand.md

@@ -8,7 +8,11 @@ tags:
   - destiny/permanent
 title: Gregg Notehand
 subtitle: A Personal-Use Shorthand & Integrated Instruction in How to Make Notes
-author: Leslie, Louis A. AND Zoubek, Charles E. AND Poe, Roy W. AND Deese, James
+authors:
+  - Leslie, Louis A.
+  - Zoubek, Charles E.
+  - Poe, Roy W.
+  - Deese, James
 edition: Second
 year: 1968
 publisher: McGraw-Hill, Inc.

accubid-setup.md

@@ -71,7 +71,7 @@ Replace the `Area`s with those created in [[project-setup#Setup WBS]]
 
 ##### Create Unit Typicals
 
-<!-- TODO: -->
+%% TODO: %%
 
 ##### Create Helper Typicals
 

breakdown-objects.md

@@ -60,7 +60,7 @@ equipment of the same type is assumed to be evenly spaced.
 
 ## Location vs. Scope
 
-<!--TODO:-->
+%%TODO:%%
 
 ![[location-vs-scope.excalidraw]]
 

cruel-mother.md

@@ -1,3 +1,10 @@
+---
+id:
+aliases: []
+title: The Cruel Mother (Traditional)
+tags:
+  - exclude-from-word-count
+---
 # The Cruel Mother (Traditional)
 
 ## Lyrics

diagrams.md

@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ title: Diagrams
 
 ```mermaid
 graph LR
-A[README] --> B 
+A[README] %% B 
 
 class A internal-link;
 ```

distributed-antenna-systems-takeoff.md

@@ -26,41 +26,37 @@ title: Distributed Antenna Systems (DAS) Takeoff
 
 ### FACR to Every Elevator Shaft
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV PIT = ...`
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV PIT = ...`
-
+    * **Length** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length_
-Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length and Count
+    * **Count** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Count_
 
 ### FACR to Every Staircase
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO STAIRWELL = ...`
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO STAIRWELL = ...`
-
+    * **Length** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length_
-Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length and Count
+    * **Count** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Count_
 
 ### Stairwell Riser Every 2 Floors
 
-> [!info] Takeoff
+1. * `Area` = "Typical - Stairwells Building Even Levels"
-> * `Area` = "Typical - Stairwells Building Even Levels"
+
-> 
+    `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`STAIRWELL RISER EVERY 2 FLRS = ...`
-> 1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`STAIRWELL RISER EVERY 2 FLRS = ...`
+    * **Count** = Each stairwell
->     * **Count** = Each stairwell
 
 ### FACR to Electric Room
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO 2HR-RATED RM = ...`
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO 2HR-RATED RM = ...`
-
+    * **Length** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length_
-Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length
 
 ### Electric Room Riser to Every Floor
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`2HR-RATED RM RISER TO EVERY FLR = ...`
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`2HR-RATED RM RISER TO EVERY FLR = ...`
-
+    * **Count** = Each Electric Room
-Takeoff in every Electric Room
 
 ### Top 2H Rated Room To Roof
 
-> [!info] Takeoff
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`TOP 2HR RATED RM TO ROOF = ...`
-> 1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`TOP 2HR RATED RM TO ROOF = ...`
+    * **Length** = Top level ceiling height to structure (minimum 15ft)
->    * **Length** = 15ft or height of ceiling on last building level
 
 ## Horizontal
 
@@ -68,6 +64,5 @@ Takeoff in every Electric Room
 > Usually only for cellular DAS.
 > Confirm takeoff requirement with [[pdi-estimating#Bid Estimating|Bid]].
 
-> [!info] Takeoff
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`CORRIDORS ...`
-> 1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`CORRIDORS ...`
+    * **Length** = Length measured for every corridor/garage
->     * **Length** = Length measured  for every corridor/garage

emergency-communications-systems.md

@@ -33,8 +33,8 @@ would be as nonsensical as excluding _the_ unit subfeed.
 > [!aside]
 > There's an argument to be made
 > that _the_ two-way communication system (singular)
-> is legitimate shorthand for the super-system
+> is legitimate shorthand for the "super-system"
-> that includes all ICC two-way communication _systems_ (plural),
+> that includes all ICC defined two-way communication _systems_ (plural),
 > and I'd tend to agree, but the distinction should be noted.
 
 All systems currently listed in this note

estimating-culture.md

@@ -92,7 +92,7 @@ even those that could be done by one person.
 In other industries, estimating is treated appropriately like a data science.
 In ours, [[gut-feel]] dominates decision making.
 
-<!-- TODO: -->
+%% TODO: %%
 [[estimator-calibration]]
 [[ai-in-estimating]]
 

fire-alarm-takeoff.md

@@ -31,19 +31,19 @@ Include [[sleeving-takeoff]] as necessary.
 
 ### Fire Command Center
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`HEAD END EQUIP`/`... HEAD END`
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`HEAD END EQUIP`/`... HEAD END`
 
 ### Generator Room
 
-`Area` = Same as FACR
+1. `Area` = Same as FACR
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`GENERATOR ROOM ...`
+    `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`GENERATOR ROOM ...`
 
 ### Fire Pump Room
 
-`Area` = Same as FACR
+1. `Area` = Same as FACR
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE PUMP ROOM ...`
+    `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE PUMP ROOM ...`
 
 ### Elevator Control Rooms
 
@@ -51,29 +51,23 @@ Include [[sleeving-takeoff]] as necessary.
 
 For each Elevator Control Room (ECR):
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`ELEV CONTROL ROOM ...`
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`ELEV CONTROL ROOM ...`
+    * **Count** = 1
 
-* **Count** = 1
+2. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV CONTROL RM ...`
-
+    * **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and ECR.
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV CONTROL RM ...`
+        *  Input adder length to reach the level of the ECR (Minimum 15ft).
-
-* **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and ECR.
-    *  Input adder length to reach the level of the ECR (Minimum 15ft).
 
 ### Elevator Shafts
 
-`Area` = Same as FACR
-
 For each elevator shaft:
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`ELEV SHAFT ...`
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`ELEV SHAFT ...`
+    * **Count** = 1
 
-* **Count** = 1
+2. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV SHAFT ...`
-
+    * **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and elevator shaft.
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV SHAFT ...`
+        * Input adder length to reach the level of the shaft (Minimum 15ft).
-
-* **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and elevator shaft.
-* Input adder length to reach the level of the shaft (Minimum 15ft).
 
 > [!important] Counting Elevator Shafts
 > Adjacent elevators may be in the same or parallel shafts.
@@ -95,10 +89,9 @@ For each elevator shaft:
 
 For each stairwell:
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO STAIRWELLS 1" CONDUIT ...`
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO STAIRWELLS 1" CONDUIT ...`
-
+    * **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and stairwell.
-* **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and stairwell.
+        * Input adder length to reach the level of the stairwell (Minimum 15ft).
-* Input adder length to reach the level of the stairwell (Minimum 15ft).
 
 ## Terminal Cabinets
 
@@ -107,15 +100,19 @@ For each stairwell:
 * _Garden Style, High Density:_ (2) 1"C
 * _High Rise:_ (2) 2"C
 
-Horizontal:
+1. Horizontal:
 
-> * `Area` = Same as FACR
+    * `Area` = Same as FACR
-> * **Length** = Length measured from FACR to all electrical rooms
+    
+    `... HORIZONTAL RUN`
+    * **Length** = Length measured from FACR to all electrical rooms
 
-Vertical:
+2. Vertical:
 
-> * `Area` = "Typical - Building All Levels"
+    * `Area` = "Typical - Building All Levels"
-> * **Length** = 10ft
+
+    `... RISER`
+    * **Length** = 10ft
 
 ## Annunciator Panels
 
@@ -123,13 +120,13 @@ Vertical:
 > * Fire Alarm Annunciator (FAA)
 > * Fire Alarm Annunciator Panel (FAAP)
 
-> `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`ANNUNCIATORS`/`REMOTE SERIAL ANNUNCIATOR ...`
+ 1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`ANNUNCIATORS`/`REMOTE SERIAL ANNUNCIATOR ...`
-> * **Length** = Length measured from the FACR to FAA or Lobby
+    * **Length** = Length measured from the FACR to FAA or Lobby
 
 ## Central Monitoring Loop
 
 > [!important]
-> Garden Style only.
+> Garden Style only. 
 
 > Fire Alarm Control Panels from each building will send a signal to a central location.
 > 
@@ -141,14 +138,14 @@ Vertical:
 
 ### Smoke Detectors
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`SMOKE DETECTOR W/ BASE - ...`
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`SMOKE DETECTOR W/ BASE - ...`
 
 _Design Build:_
 Count every stairwell at every level.
 
 ### Pull Stations
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`PULL STATION - ...`
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`PULL STATION - ...`
 
 _Design Build:_
 Count every stairwell at every level
@@ -163,7 +160,7 @@ Count every stairwell at every level.
 
 ### Magnetic Door Holders
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INDICATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`MAGNETIC DOOR HOLDER - ...`
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INDICATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`MAGNETIC DOOR HOLDER - ...`
 
 _Design Build:_
 Count 2 for every set of double doors.
@@ -171,9 +168,9 @@ Count 2 for every set of double doors.
 
 ### Horns, Speakers, and Strobes
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INDICATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`INDOOR HORN STROBE - ...`
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INDICATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`INDOOR HORN STROBE - ...`
 
-_Design Build:_
+_Design Build (method 1):_
 * Count every 75 ft,
     * measure with circles on Bluebeam
     * or divide relevant SF area by 4415
@@ -181,29 +178,18 @@ _Design Build:_
 * every elevator lobby,
 * and every BOH room on the first floor and garage levels.
 
-_Design Build (alt):_
+_Design Build (alternative method):_
 * 15ft from end of corridor,
 * then every 50ft
 
-## Firefighter Phone System
-
-* firefighter phone jacks
-* fire warden station
-* fire phone cabinet
-
-Communicates directly with FACR.
-Not related to responder radio.
-
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`COMMUNICATION DEVICES ...`/`...`
-
 ## Fire Smoke Dampers (FSD's)
 
 For each damper, take off both
 
-`System` = "FA - Fire Alarm"
+1. * `System` = "FA - Fire Alarm"
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES ...`/`ADDRESSABLE OUTPUT RELAY MODULE ...`
+    `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES ...`/`ADDRESSABLE OUTPUT RELAY MODULE ...`
 
-and `System` = "EL - Electrical"
+2. * `System` = "EL - Electrical"
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MISC ASSEMBLIES`/`FSD ...`
+    `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MISC ASSEMBLIES`/`FSD ...`

functional-labor-factoring.md

@@ -26,14 +26,14 @@ laboring is the most interesting and rewarding part of the job.
 Discussions of human factors are far more engaging
 than those of statistical analysis.
 
-<!--
+%%
 TODO: discuss the necessity of comprehensive labor consumption insights
 and visualizations which are not currently feasible
 as an expectation of owners and contractors.
 
 Estimators know that doubling crew won't double production,
 but we must be able to offer evidence as such.
--->
+%%
 
 Tables of labor factors given certain conditions
 can be converted to functions using regressions.

game-theory.md

@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ title: Game Theory
 
 [[auction-theory|Auction theory]] is a subset of game theory
 
-<!-- TODO: -->
+%% TODO: %%
 
 #### Reverse Auction
 
@@ -27,13 +27,13 @@ bid prices are hidden from the bidders.
 
 [[uncertainty#Information]]
 
-<!-- TODO: -->
+%% TODO: %%
 
 ## Terminology
 
 ### "Solved" Games
 
-<!-- TODO: -->
+%% TODO: %%
 
 ### Symmetry
 

homelab.md

@@ -21,10 +21,10 @@ title: Homelab
 
 Today I worked to get LostLenore, my laptop Ubuntu Server test machine in a state to host web apps.
 
-<!--
+%%
 Note: "Today" is sometime before March 2025.
 Likely well before if I remember correctly.
--->
+%%
 
 This motivation was spurred by the idea that I could run regular expensive processes
 on the server and provide API calls to get the data when I need it.

hubbard_2020_failure.md

@@ -0,0 +1,252 @@
+---
+id:
+aliases: []
+title: "The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It, Second Edition"
+tags:
+  - authorship/other
+  - exclude-from-word-count
+  - status/incomplete
+  - topic/risk
+  - type/media
+authors: Douglas W. Hubbard
+publisher: John	Wiley & Sons, Inc.
+type: book
+year: 2020
+---
+# The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It, Second Edition
+
+%%
+This note, with the exception of comments like this one
+(reserved for notes on transcription)
+consists only of content from the text.
+For commentary see the companion
+[[the-failure-of-risk-management]].
+%%
+
+## Part One: An Introduction To The Crisis
+
+### Chapter 1: Healthy Skepticism For Risk Management
+
+#### A "Common Mode Failure"
+
+#### Key Definitions: Risk Management And Some Related Terms
+
+#### What Failure Means
+
+#### Scope And Objectives Of This Book
+
+#### Notes
+
+### Chapter 2: A Summary Of The Current State Of Risk Management
+
+#### A Short And Entirely-Too-Superficial History Of Risk
+
+#### Current State Of Risk Management In The Organization
+
+#### Current Risks And How They Are Assessed
+
+#### Notes
+
+### Chapter 3: How Do We Know What Works?
+
+#### Anecdote: The Risk Of Outsourcing Drug Manufacturing
+
+#### Why It's Hard To Know What Works
+
+#### An Assessment Of Self-Assessments
+
+#### Potential Objective Evaluations Of Risk Management
+
+#### What We May Find
+
+#### Notes
+
+### Chapter 4: Getting Started: A Simple Straw Man Quantitative Model
+
+#### A Simple One-For-One Substitution
+
+#### The Expert As The Instrument
+
+#### A Quick Overview Of "Uncertainty Math"
+
+#### Establishing Risk Tolerance
+
+#### Supporting The Decision: A Return On Mitigation
+
+#### Making The Straw Man Better
+
+#### Note
+
+## Part Two: Why It's Broken
+
+### Chapter 5: The "Four Horsemen" Of Risk Management: Some (Mostly) Sincere Attempts To Prevent An Apocalypse
+
+#### Actuaries
+
+#### War Quants: How World War II Changed Risk Analysis Forever
+
+#### Economists
+
+#### Management Consulting: How A Power Tie And A Good Pitch Changed Risk Management
+
+#### Comparing The Horsemen
+
+#### Major Risk Management Problems To Be Addressed
+
+#### Notes
+
+### Chapter 6: An Ivory Tower Of Babel: Fixing The Confusion About Risk
+
+#### The Frank Knight Definition
+
+#### Knight's Influence In Finance And Project Management
+
+#### A Construction Engineering Definition
+
+#### Risk As Expected Loss
+
+#### Defining Risk Tolerance
+
+#### Defining Probability
+
+#### Enriching The Lexicon
+
+#### Notes
+
+### Chapter 7: The Limits Of Expert Knowledge: Why We Don't Know What We Think We Know About Uncertainty
+
+#### The Right Stuff: How A Group Of Psychologists Might Save Risk Analysis
+
+#### Mental Math: Why We Shouldn't Trust The Numbers In Our Heads
+
+#### "Catastrophic" Overconfidence
+
+#### The Mind Of "Aces": Possible Causes And Consequences Of Overconfidence
+
+#### Inconsistencies And Artifacts: What Shouldn't Matter Does
+
+#### Answers To Calibration Tests
+
+#### Notes
+
+### Chapter 8: Worse Than Useless: The Most Popular Risk Assessment Method And Why It Doesn't Work
+
+#### A Few Examples Of Scores And Matrices
+
+#### Does That Come In "Medium"?: Why Ambiguity Does Not Offset Uncertainty
+
+#### Unintended Effects Of Scales: What You Don't Know Can Hurt You
+
+#### Different But Similar-Sounding Methods And Similar But Different-Sounding Methods
+
+#### Notes
+
+### Chapter 9: Bears, Swans And Other Obstacles To Improved Risk Management
+
+#### Algorithm Aversion And A Key Fallacy
+
+#### Algorithms Versus Experts: Generalizing The Findings
+
+#### A Note About Black Swans
+
+#### Major Mathematical Misconceptions
+
+#### We're Special: The Belief That Risk Analysis Might Work, But Not Here
+
+#### Notes
+
+### Chapter 10: Where Even The Quants Go Wrong: Common And Fundamental Errors In Quantitative Models
+
+#### A Survey Of Analysts Using Monte Carlos
+
+#### The Risk Paradox
+
+#### Financial Models And The Shape Of Disaster: Why Normal Isn't So Normal
+
+#### Following Your Inner Cow: The Problem With Correlations
+
+#### The Measurement Inversion
+
+#### Is Monte Carlo Too Complicated?
+
+#### Notes
+
+## Part Three: How To Fix It
+
+### Chapter 11: Starting With What Works
+
+#### Speak The Language
+
+#### Getting Your Probabilities Calibrated
+
+#### Using Data For Initial Benchmarks
+
+#### Checking The Substitution
+
+#### Simple Risk Management
+
+#### Notes
+
+### Chapter 12: Improving The Model
+
+#### Empirical Inputs
+
+#### Adding Detail To The Model
+
+#### Advanced Methods For Improving Expert's Subjective Estimates
+
+#### Other Monte Carlo Tools
+
+#### Self-Examinations For Modelers
+
+#### Notes
+
+### Chapter 13: The Risk Community: Intra- And Extra-Organizational Issues Of Risk Management
+
+#### Getting Organized
+
+#### Managing The Model
+
+#### Incentives For A Calibrated Culture
+
+#### Extraorganizational Issues: Solutions Beyond Your Office Building
+
+##### Growing the Profession
+
+Of all the professions in risk management,
+that of the actuary is the only one
+that is actually a legally recognized profession.
+Becoming an actuary requires a demonstration of proficiency
+through several standardized tests.
+It also means adopting a code of professional ethics
+enforced by some licensing body.
+When actuaries sign their name
+to the Statement of Actuarial Opinion of an insurance company,
+they put their license on the line.
+As with doctors and lawyers,
+if they lose their license, they cannot just get another job next door.
+The industry of modelers of uncertainties outside of insurance
+could benefit greatly from this level of professional standards.
+
+Standards organizations,
+government affiliated and otherwise,
+have always been a key part of what makes a profession a profession.
+But standards organizations such as PMI, NIST, and others
+are all guilty of explicitly promoting
+the ineffectual methods previously debunked.
+The scoring methods developed by these institutions
+should be disposed of altogether.
+These organizations should stay out of the business
+of designing risk analysis methods
+until they begin to involve people with quantitative decision analysis backgrounds
+in their standards-development process.
+Professionals should take charge of the direction their profession evolves
+by insisting the standards move in this direction.
+
+#### Practical Observations From Trustmark
+
+#### Final Thoughts On Quantitative Models And Better Decisions
+
+#### Notes
+
+## Appendix: Additional Calibration Tests And Answers

klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models.md

@@ -0,0 +1,584 @@
+---
+id:
+aliases: []
+title: "Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, Fifth Edition"
+tags:
+  - authorship/other
+  - destiny/permanent/entry-point
+  - exclude-from-word-count
+  - status/incomplete
+  - topic/risk
+  - type/media
+authors:
+  - Stuart A. Klugman
+  - Harry H. Panjer
+  - Gordon E. Willmot
+publisher: John	Wiley & Sons, Inc.
+series: Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics
+type: book
+year: 2019
+---
+# Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, Fifth Edition
+
+%%
+This note, with the exception of comments like this one
+(reserved for notes on transcription)
+consists only of content from the text.
+For commentary see the companion [[loss-models]].
+%%
+
+## Part I Introduction
+
+### 1. Modeling
+
+#### 1.1 The Model-Based Approach
+
+##### 1.1.1 The Modeling Process
+
+The model-based approach
+should be considered in the context of the objectives of any given problem.
+Many problems in actuarial science
+involve the building of a mathematical model
+that can be used to forecast or predict insurance costs in the future.
+
+##### 1.1.2 The Modeling Advantage
+
+#### 1.2 The Organization of This Book
+
+### 2. Random Variables
+
+#### 2.1 Introduction
+
+#### 2.2 Key Functions and Four Models
+
+##### 2.2.1 Exercises
+
+### 3. Basic Distributional Quantities
+
+#### 3.1 Moments
+
+##### 3.1.1 Exercises
+
+#### 3.2 Percentiles
+
+##### 3.2.1 Exercises
+
+#### 3.3 Generating Functions and Sums of Random Variables
+
+##### 3.3.1 Exercises
+
+#### 3.4 Tails of Distributions
+
+##### 3.4.1 Classification Based on Moments
+
+##### 3.4.2 Comparison Based on Limiting Tail
+
+##### 3.4.3 Classification Based on the Hazard Rate Function
+
+##### 3.4.4 Classification Based on the Mean Excess Loss Function The mean excess
+
+##### 3.4.5 Equilibrium Distributions and Tail Behavior
+
+##### 3.4.6 Exercises
+
+#### 3.5 Measures of Risk
+
+##### 3.5.1 Introduction
+
+##### 3.5.2 Risk Measures and Coherence
+
+##### 3.5.3 Value at Risk
+
+##### 3.5.4 Tail Value of Risk
+
+##### 3.5.5 Exercises
+
+## Part II Actuarial Models
+
+### 4. Characteristics Of Actuarial Models
+
+#### 4.1 Introduction
+
+#### 4.2 The Role of Parameters
+
+##### 4.2.1 Parametric and Scale Distributions
+
+##### 4.2.2 Parametric Distribution Families
+
+##### 4.2.3 Finite Mixture Distributions
+
+##### 4.2.4 Data-Dependent Distributions
+
+##### 4.2.5 Exercises
+
+### 5. Continuous Models
+
+#### 5.1 Introduction
+
+#### 5.2 Creating New Distributions
+
+##### 5.2.1 Multiplication by a Constant
+
+##### 5.2.2 Raising to a Power
+
+##### 5.2.3 Exponentiation
+
+##### 5.2.4 Mixing
+
+##### 5.2.5 Frailty Models
+
+##### 5.2.6 Splicing
+
+##### 5.2.7 Exercises
+
+#### 5.3 Selected Distributions and Their Relationships
+
+##### 5.3.1 Introduction
+
+##### 5.3.2 Two Parametric Families
+
+##### 5.3.3 Limiting Distributions
+
+##### 5.3.4 Two Heavy-Tailed Distributions
+
+##### 5.3.5 Exercises
+
+#### 5.4 The Linear Exponential Family
+
+##### 5.4.1 Exercises
+
+### 6. Discrete Distributions
+
+#### 6.1 Introduction
+
+##### 6.1.1 Exercise
+
+#### 6.2 The Poisson Distribution
+
+#### 6.3 The Negative Binomial Distribution
+
+#### 6.4 The Binomial Distribution
+
+#### 6.5 The (a,b) Class
+
+##### 6.5.1 Exercises
+
+#### 6.6 Truncation and Modification at zero
+
+##### 6.6.1 Exercises
+
+### 7. Advanced Discrete Distributions
+
+#### 7.1 Compound Frequency Distributions
+
+##### 7.1.1 Exercises
+
+#### 7.2 Further Properties of the Compound Poisson Class
+
+##### 7.2.1 Exercises
+
+#### 7.3 Mixed-Frequency Distributions
+
+##### 7.3.1 The General Mixed-Frequency Distribution
+
+##### 7.3.2 Mixed Poisson Distributions
+
+##### 7.3.3 Exercises
+
+#### 7.4 The Effect of Exposure on Frequency
+
+#### 7.5 An Inventory of Discrete Distributions
+
+##### 7.5.1 Exercises
+
+### 8. Frequency And Severity With Coverage Modifications
+
+#### 8.1 Introduction
+
+#### 8.2 Deductibles
+
+##### 8.2.1 Exercises
+
+#### 8.3 The Loss Elimination Ratio and the Effect of Inflation for Ordinary Deductibles
+
+##### 8.3.1 Exercise
+
+#### 8.4 Policy Limits
+
+##### 8.4.1 Exercises
+
+#### 8.5 Coinsurance, Deductibles, and Limits
+
+##### 8.5.1 Exercises
+
+#### 8.6 The Impact of Deductibles on Claim Frequency
+
+##### 8.6.1 Exercises
+
+### 9. Aggregate Loss Models
+
+#### 9.1 Introduction
+
+##### 9.1.1 Exercises
+
+#### 9.2 Model Choices
+
+##### 9.2.1 Exercises
+
+#### 9.3 The Compound Model for Aggregate Claims
+
+##### 9.3.1 Probabilities and Moments
+
+##### 9.3.2 Stop-Loss Insurance
+
+##### 9.3.3 The Tweedle Distribution
+
+##### 9.3.4 Exercises
+
+#### 9.4 Analytic Results
+
+##### 9.4.1 Exercises
+
+#### 9.5 Computing the Aggregate Claims Distribution
+
+#### 9.6 The Recursive Method
+
+##### 9.6.1 Applications to Compound Frequency Models
+
+##### 9.6.2 Underflow/Overflow Problems
+
+##### 9.6.3 Numerical Stability
+
+##### 9.6.4 Continuous Severity
+
+##### 9.6.5 Constructing Arithmetic Distributions
+
+##### 9.6.6 Exercises
+
+#### 9.7 The Impact of Individual Policy Modifications on Aggregate Payments
+
+##### 9.7.1 Exercises
+
+#### 9.8 The individual Risk Model
+
+##### 9.8.1 The Model
+
+##### 9.8.2 Parametric Approximation
+
+##### 9.8.3 Compound Poisson Approximation
+
+##### 9.8.4 Exercises
+
+## Part III Mathematical Statistics
+
+### 10. Introduction To Mathematical Statistics
+
+#### 10.1 Introduction and Four Data Sets
+
+#### 10.2 Point Estimation
+
+##### 10.2.1 Introduction
+
+##### 10.2.2 Measures of Quality
+
+##### 10.2.3 Exercises
+
+#### 10.3 Interval Estimation
+
+##### 10.3.1 Exercises
+
+#### 10.4 The Construction of Parametric Estimators
+
+##### 10.4.1 The Method of Moments and Percentile Matching
+
+##### 10.4.2 Exercises
+
+#### 10.5 Tests of Hypotheses
+
+##### 10.5.1 Exercise
+
+### 11. Maximum Likelihood Estimation
+
+#### 11.1 Introduction
+
+#### 11.2 Individual Data
+
+##### 11.2.1 Exercises
+
+#### 11.3 Grouped Data
+
+##### 11.3.1 Exercises
+
+#### 11.4 Truncated or Censored Data
+
+##### 11.4.1 Exercises
+
+#### 11.5 Variance and Interval Estimation for Maximum Likelihood Estimators
+
+##### 11.5.1 Exercises
+
+#### 11.6 Functions of Asymptotically Normal Estimators
+
+##### 11.6.1 Exercises
+
+#### 11.7 Nonnormal Confidence Intervals
+
+##### 11.7.1 Exercise
+
+### 12. Frequentist Estimation For Discrete Distributions
+
+#### 12.1 The Poisson Distribution
+
+#### 12.2 The Negative Binomial Distribution
+
+#### 12.3 The Binomial Distribution
+
+#### 12.4 The (a,b) Class
+
+#### 12.5 Compound Models
+
+#### 12.6 The Effect of Exposure on Maximum Likelihood Estimation
+
+#### 12.7 Exercises
+
+### 13. Bayesian Estimation
+
+#### 13.1 Definitions and Bayes' Theorem
+
+#### 13.2 Inference and Prediction
+
+##### 13.2.1 Exercises
+
+#### 13.3 Conjugate Prior Distributions and the Linear Exponential Family
+
+##### 13.3.1 Exercises
+
+#### 13.4 Computational Issues
+
+## Part IV Construction Of Models
+
+### 14. Construction Of Empirical Models
+
+#### 14.1 The Empirical Distribution
+
+#### 14.2 Empirical Distributions for Grouped Data
+
+##### 14.2.1 Exercises
+
+#### 14.3 Empirical Estimation with Right Censored Data
+
+##### 14.3.1 Exercises
+
+#### 14.4 Empirical Estimation of Moments
+
+##### 14.4.1 Exercises
+
+#### 14.5 Empirical Estimation with Left Truncated Data
+
+##### 14.5.1 Exercises
+
+#### 14.6 Kernel Density Models
+
+##### 14.6.1 Exercises
+
+#### 14.7 Approximations for large Data Sets
+
+##### 14.7.1 Introduction
+
+##### 14.7.2 Using Individual Data Points
+
+##### 14.7.3 Interval-Based Methods
+
+##### 14.7.4 Exercises
+
+#### 14.8 Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Decrement Probabilities
+
+##### 14.8.1 Exercise
+
+#### 14.9 Estimation of Transition Intensities
+
+### 15. Model Selection
+
+#### 15.1 Introduction
+
+#### 15.2 Representations of the Data and Model
+
+#### 15.3 Graphical Comparison of the Density and Distribution Functions
+
+##### 15.3.1 Exercises
+
+#### 15.4 Hypothesis Tests
+
+##### 15.4.1 The Kolmogorov--Smirnov Test
+
+##### 15.4.2 The Anderson--Darling Test
+
+##### 15.4.3 The Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test
+
+##### 15.4.4 The Likelihood Ratio Test
+
+##### 15.4.5 Exercises
+
+#### 15.5 Selecting a Model
+
+##### 15.5.1 Introduction
+
+##### 15.2.2 Judgement-Based Approaches
+
+##### 15.5.3 Score-Based Approaches
+
+##### 15.5.4 Exercises
+
+## Part V Credibility
+
+### 16. Introduction To Limited Fluctuation Credibility
+
+#### 16.1 Introduction
+
+#### 16.2 Limited Fluctuation Credibility Theory
+
+#### 16.3 Full Credibility
+
+#### 16.4 Partial Credibility
+
+#### 16.5 Problems with the Approach
+
+#### 16.6 Notes and References
+
+#### 16.7 Exercises
+
+### 17. Greatest Accuracy Credibility
+
+#### 17.1 Introduction
+
+#### 17.2 Conditional Distributions and Expectation
+
+#### 17.3 The Bayesian Methodology
+
+#### 17.4 The Credibility Premium
+
+#### 17.5 The Bühlmann Model
+
+#### 17.6 The Bühlmann--Straub Model
+
+#### 17.7 Exact Credibility
+
+#### 17.8 Notes and References
+
+#### 17.9 Exercises
+
+### 18. Empirical Bayes Parameter Estimation
+
+#### 18.1 Introduction
+
+#### 18.2 Nonparametric Estimation
+
+#### 18.3 Semiparametric Estimation
+
+#### 18.4 Notes and References
+
+#### 18.5 Exercises
+
+## Part VI Simulation
+
+### 19. Simulation
+
+#### 19.1 Basics of Simulation
+
+##### 19.1.1 The Simulation Approach
+
+##### 19.1.2 Exercises
+
+#### 19.2 Simulation for Specific Distributions
+
+##### 19.2.1 Discrete Mixtures
+
+##### 19.2.2 Time or Age of Death from a Life Table
+
+##### 19.2.3 Simulating from the (a,b) Class
+
+##### 19.2.4 Normal and Lognormal Distributions
+
+##### 19.2.5 Exercises
+
+#### 19.3 Determining the Sample Size
+
+##### 19.3.1 Exercises
+
+#### 19.4 Examples of Simulation in Actuarial Modeling
+
+##### 19.4.1 Aggregate Loss Calculations
+
+##### 19.4.2 Examples of Lack of Independence
+
+##### 19.4.3 Simulation Analysis of the Two Examples
+
+##### 19.4.4 The Use of Simulation to Determine Risk Measures
+
+##### 19.4.5 Statistical Analyses
+
+##### 19.4.6 Exercises
+
+## Appendix A An Inventory Of Continuous Distributions
+
+### A.1 Introduction
+
+### A.2 The Transformed Beta Family
+
+#### A.2.1 The Four-Parameter Distribution
+
+#### A.2.2 Three-Parameter Distributions
+
+#### A.2.3 Two-Parameter Distributions
+
+### A.3 The Transformed Gamma Family
+
+#### A.3.1 Three-Parameter Distributions
+
+#### A.3.2 Two-Parameter Distributions
+
+#### A.3.3 One-Parameter Distributions
+
+### A.4 Distributions For Large Losses
+
+#### A.4.1 Extreme Value Distributions
+
+#### A.4.2 Generalized Pareto Distributions
+
+### A.4.5 Other Distributions
+
+### A.4.6 Distributions With Finite Support
+
+## Appendix B An Inventory Of Discrete Distributions
+
+### B.1 Introduction
+
+### B.2 The (a,b,0) Class
+
+### B.3 The (a,b,1) Class
+
+#### B.3.1 The Zero-Truncated Subclass
+
+#### B.3.2 The Zero-Modified Subclass
+
+### B.4 The Compound Class
+
+#### B.4.1 Some Compound Distributions
+
+### B.5 A Hierarchy Of Discrete Distributions
+
+## Appendix C Frequency And Severity Relationships
+
+## Appendix D The Recursive Formula
+
+## Appendix E Discretization Of The Severity Distribution
+
+### E.1 The Method Of Rounding
+
+### E.2 Mean Preserving
+
+### E.3 Undiscretization Of A Discretized Distribution
+
+## References
+
+## Index

loss-models.md

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+---
+id:
+aliases: []
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - status/incomplete
+  - type/media-commentary
+  - topic/risk
+title: "Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, Fifth Edition"
+---
+# _Loss Models_
+
+This is the commentary companion to [[klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models]]
+
+> [!cite] 1.1 "The Model-Based Approach"
+> The model-based approach
+> should be considered in the context of the objectives of any given problem.

misc-budgets-takeoff.md

@@ -1,87 +1,77 @@
 ---
 id:
 aliases: []
+title: Misc Budgets Takeoff
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
   - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
-title: Misc Budgets
 ---
-# Misc Budgets
+# Misc Budgets Takeoff
+
+* `Drawing` = "N/A"
+* `System` = "EL - Electrical"
 
 ## Slab Deck
 
-* `Drawing` = "N/A"
+Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`MISC PDI PRODUCT`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK & FEEDER`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK (NAILS, PAINT, TAPE, ETC = $250)`
-* `Area` = "Typical - ..."
+* **Count** = 1
-* `System` = "EL - Electrical"
 
-Create `Area` Typicals for every concrete slab floor:
+1. * `Area` = "Typical - Building All Levels"
+        * 1 each level except roof
+        * _High Density:_ 1 per Section
+    * `Phase` = "Building - BOH, Storage & Common"
 
-* 'All Building'
+2. * `Area` = "Typical - Garage All Levels"
-  * 1 each level except roof
+    * `Phase` = "Garage"
-  * _High Density:_ 1 per Section
-
-`Phase` = "Building - BOH, Storage & Common"
-
-* 'All Garage'
-  * 1 each level
-
-`Phase` = "Garage"
-
-In each Typical:
-
-* Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`MISC PDI PRODUCT`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK & FEEDER`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK (NAILS, PAINT, TAPE, ETC = $250)`
-  * 1 Takeoff each Typical
-  * **Count** = 1
 
 ## Temporary Power & Lighting
 
 ### Temp Power
 
-* `Area` = "2 - Site"
+1. * `Area` = "2 - Site"
-* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
+    * `Phase` = "Temp Power"
-* `System` = "TPS - Temp Power Service (Site)"
+    * `System` = "TPS - Temp Power Service (Site)"
-* `BidItem` = "1 - Site"
+    * `BidItem` = "1 - Site"
 
-* Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`TEMPORARY POWER - ... SERVICE`
+    Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`TEMPORARY POWER - ... SERVICE`
     * **Count** = 1
 
-### Temp Lighting (Building)
+### Temp Lighting
 
-* `Area` = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Building"
+1. * `Area` = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Building"
-* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
+    * `Phase` = "Temp Power"
-* `System` = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
+    * `System` = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
-* `BidItem` = "3 - Building"
+    * `BidItem` = "3 - Building"
 
-`ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/...
+    `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/...
 
-_Garden Style:_
+    _Garden Style:_
-* Takeoff: .../`TEMPORARY POWER - T POLE (EACH)`
+    * Takeoff: .../`TEMPORARY POWER - T POLE (EACH)`
-  * **Count** = 1 per 150ft per building
+        * **Count** = 1 per 150ft per building
 
-_All others:_
+    _All others:_
-* Takeoff: .../`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)`
+    * Takeoff: .../`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)`
-  * **Count** = Building GSF = Total GSF - Garage GSF
+        * **Count** = Building GSF = Total GSF - Garage GSF
 
-### Temp Lighting (Garage)
+1. * `Area` = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Garage"
+    * `Phase` = "Temp Power"
+    * `System` = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
+    * `BidItem` = "2 - Garage"
 
-* `Area` = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Garage"
+    Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)`
-* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
+    * **Count** = Garage GSF
-* `System` = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
-* `BidItem` = "2 - Garage"
-
-* Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)`
-  * **Count** = Garage GSF
 
 ## Irrigation Pumps
 
-* `Area` = "2 - Site"
+1. * `Area` = "2 - Site"
-* `Phase` = "Temp Power"
+    * `Phase` = "Temp Power"
-* `System` = "MISC - Site Miscellaneous"
+    * `System` = "MISC - Site Miscellaneous"
-* `BidItem` = "1 - Site"
+    * `BidItem` = "1 - Site"
 
-Takeoff: `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MECHANICAL CONNECTIONS (UP TO 100A)`/`PVC - LT NM FLEX (CARFLEX)`/`30A 3PH MECH CONN (200') 3/4" PVC 4#10 - CARFLEX`
+    Takeoff: `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MECHANICAL CONNECTIONS (UP TO 100A)`/`PVC - LT NM FLEX (CARFLEX)`/`30A 3PH MECH CONN (200') 3/4" PVC 4#10 - CARFLEX`
-* **Count** = 3
+    * **Count** = 3
-* Prepend to name: "Irrigation Pumps - "
+
+    Prepend to name: "Irrigation Pumps - "

nfpa-101_life-safety-code.md

@@ -12,10 +12,10 @@ title: "NFPA 101: Life Safety Code (2018)"
 ---
 # NFPA 101: Life Safety Code (2018)
 
-<!--
+%%
 This note is provided for future use.
 Chapter headings can be extracted to new files with format `nfpa-101_00.md`.
--->
+%%
 
 ## Chapter 1 Administration
 

nfpa-70_220_load-calculations.md

@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ Part V provides calculation methods for farm loads.
 
 ### Figure 220.1 Branch-Circuit, Feeder, and Service Load Calculation Methods.
 
-<!-- TODO: FIGURE OMITTED -->
+%% TODO: FIGURE OMITTED %%
 
 ### 220.3 Other Articles for Specific-Purpose Calculations.
 

nfpa-70_300_general-requirements.md

@@ -734,7 +734,7 @@ One of the following methods of support shall be used:
 
 4. Other approved means.
 
-<!-- TODO: TEXT OMITTED -->
+%% TODO: TEXT OMITTED %%
 
 ### 300.20 Induced Currents in Ferrous Metal Enclosures or Ferrous Metal Raceways.
 

nfpa-72_national-fire-alarm-code.md

@@ -12,10 +12,10 @@ title: "NFPA 72: National Fire Alarm and Signaling Code (2019)"
 ---
 # NFPA 72: National Fire Alarm and Signaling Code (2019)
 
-<!--
+%%
 This note is provided for future use.
 Chapter headings can be extracted to new files with format `nfpa-72_00.md`.
--->
+%%
 
 ## Chapter 1 Administration
 

optimal-estimating-patterns.md

@@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ on the stale patterns developed for marginally similar applications decades ago.
 > If you could just do what they're trying to do correctly,
 > you probably wouldn't need all these optimizations anyway.
 
-<!-- TODO:
+%% TODO:
 
 Count-based takeoff speed increases with count.
 
@@ -34,7 +34,7 @@ Optimizing the takeoff process means:
 * _Minimizing_ the need for information outside of drawings
 * _Maximizing_ organizational consistency
 
--->
+%%
 
 ## More "Innovative" Patterns
 
@@ -78,10 +78,10 @@ each adjusts the prior to calculate the expected quantity for all 18 levels.
 
 ### Sketch-Based Lookup
 
-<!-- TODO:
+%% TODO:
 This section is a transcription of a dictation.
 To be condensed.
--->
+%%
 
 A better use for computer vision in estimating
 is sketch based assembly lookup.

pre-takeoff-research.md

@@ -11,9 +11,9 @@ title: Pre-Takeoff Research
 ---
 # Pre-Takeoff Research
 
-<!--
+%%
 This note should be arranged chronologically:
--->
+%%
 
 > [!important] Requirement Precedence
 > In case of conflict:
@@ -21,20 +21,24 @@ This note should be arranged chronologically:
 > are superseded by the terms of our proposal,
 > which are superseded by specific direction from the bid team.
 
-<!--
+%%
 Where NEC, IBC, and other applicable codes fall in this hierarchy
 is subject to some debate.
--->
+%%
 
 > [!aside] "Plans & Specs"
 > The oft repeated "per plans and specs" is a gross oversimplification:
-> The RFP documents are more likely than not
+> The RFP documents will---more likely than not---
-> to have one or more irreconcilable contradictions,
+> have one or more irreconcilable contradictions,
 > or some instance of [[gold-plating]] too egregious to accept.
-> When ConEst takes of a project "per plans and specs",
+> When ConEst takes off a project "per plans and specs",
 > we are taking off _Bid's interpretation_ of the RFP documents,
 > which they must be able to articulate.
 
+%%
+The limitations of Bid's authority are currently being questioned
+%%
+
 Seek to use the cheapest method,
 as determined by Senior Construction Estimator
 and Database Administrator,
@@ -114,9 +118,9 @@ _without respect for voltage drop_.
   * Riser Diagram
   * Subfeed schedule (if present)
 
-<!--
+%%
 TODO: Create flow chart for wiring methods.
 Some cases to mention:
 * Deck thickness (minimum 3x conduit outer diameter)
 * Renovations (may not be able to run in slab)
--->
+%%

purpose-of-construction-estimating.md

@@ -56,7 +56,7 @@ See [[gold-plating]].
 * Make profit to meet growth target
 * Secure work for current and projected employees (fill backlog)
 
-<!-- TODO: "Determine the sale price of a service" -->
+%% TODO: "Determine the sale price of a service" %%
 
 > [!aside]
 > I take increasing issue with the common model

raceway-terms.md

@@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ title: Raceway Terms
 > "Duct bank" is not given explicit definition in the NEC,
 > however it is used frequently to refer to any group of **ducts**,
 > _even as few as one_, as shown in Figure 310.60(C)(3).
-> It is always spelled as two words.
+> ==It is always spelled as two words.==
 
 ## "Wiring Method"
 

resolving-process-uncertainty.md

@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ Only escalate if you are still uncertain.
 
 ## Writing Process Notes
 
-<!-- TODO: -->
+%% TODO: %%
 
 ### `TALK`
 
@@ -59,4 +59,4 @@ Prepare for any obvious clarifying questions.
 
 ### Choosing Your Target
 
-<!-- TODO: -->
+%% TODO: %%

separating-estimating-concerns.md

@@ -20,11 +20,11 @@ title: Separating Estimating Concerns
 > It is traditionally understood as a principle strictly of _software_ design,
 > however its applications are universal.
 
-<!--
+%%
 Minimize takeoff flow disruption
 
 Decouple takeoff (description of work) from assembly selection:
--->
+%%
 
 ## 1. Annotation
 

stochastic-branch-takeoff.md

@@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ determine relative impact of factors
 * Delunay triangulation
 * Voronoi diagrams
 
-<!-- TODO: link paper on procedural generation of single family homes -->
+%% TODO: link paper on procedural generation of single family homes %%
 
 ## Average Distance Given Area
 

tags.md

@@ -149,7 +149,7 @@ They are always? of [[tags#destiny/fleeting]].
 
 ### #type/task
 
-<!--TODO-->
+%%TODO%%
 
 ### #type/guide
 
@@ -173,11 +173,11 @@ They are always? of [[tags#authorship/original]].
 
 ### #type/anecdote
 
-<!--TODO-->
+%%TODO%%
 
 ### #type/media-commentary
 
-<!--TODO-->
+%%TODO%%
 
 ## #authorship
 

telecom-takeoff.md

@@ -19,22 +19,22 @@ title: Telecom
 > [!important]
 > Not to be confused with [[low-voltage-takeoff]].
 
+## Note: Empty Conduit
+
+Where `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY & DUCTBANK CONDUIT`/...
+is specified, `FEEDER CONDUIT AND WIRE`/...
+is also acceptable.
+
 ## "Site Low Voltage Duct Bank"
 
-* Conduit from outside of building to MDF
+1. * `Area` = "2 - Site"
+    * `Phase` = "Site"
+    * `System` = "LVD - Site Low Voltage Ductbank"
+    * `Bid Item` = "1 - Site"
 
-|            |                                   |
+    `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY & DUCTBANK CONDUIT`/...
-| ---------- | --------------------------------- |
+    * Size and quantity per proposal > drawings > assume (4) 4"C
-| `Area`     | "2 - Site"                        |
+    * **Length** = Length measured from MDF to 5ft beyond building footprint
-| `Phase`    | "Site"                            |
-| `System`   | "LVD - Site Low Voltage Ductbank" | 
-| `Bid Item` | "1 - Site"                        |
-
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY CONDUIT`
-
-Size and quantity per proposal > drawings > assume (4) 4"C
-
-* **Length** = Length measured from MDF to 5ft beyond building footprint
 
 _Garden Style:_ Outside of every building
 
@@ -47,80 +47,78 @@ _Garden Style:_ Outside of every building
 "Quazite Box"
 polymer concrete enclosure
 
-`TEMPORARY ITEMS`/...
+1. `TEMPORARY ITEMS`/`Quazite Box ...`
+    * **Material Price** = 1000.00
+    * **Labor Hours** = 12.00
+    * **Sort Code ?** = 200
 
-* **Material Price** = 1000.00
+Alternative
-* **Labor Hours** = 12.00
-* **Sort Code**? = 200
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`POLES / EXCAVATION / CORING / UG PULL BX`/`MANHOLES / PULL BOXES / EXCAVATION / CONCRETE`/...
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`POLES / EXCAVATION / CORING / UG PULL BX`/`MANHOLES / PULL BOXES / EXCAVATION / CONCRETE`/...
 
 ## Backbone Riser
 
+* `Phase` = "Building - BOH ..."
+* `System` = "TC - Telecom Backbone"
+
 (2) 4"C or (4) 4"C ULO
 
-|           |                                 |
-| --------- | ------------------------------- |
-| `Phase`   | "Building - BOH ..."            |
-| `System`  | "TC - Telecom Backbone"         |
-
-Add sleeves
-
 ### Horizontal Backbone
 
-|           |                       |
+1. * `Drawing` = Telecom riser diagram
-| --------- | --------------------- |
+    * `Area` = Area of riser room
-| `Drawing` | Telecom riser diagram |
-| `Area`    | Area of riser room    | 
 
-* **Length** = Length measured from MDF to IDF.
+    `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY & DUCTBANK CONDUIT`/...
-    * Input adder length to reach the level of the IDF (Minimum 15ft).
+    * **Length** = Length measured from MDF to IDF
+        * Input adder length to reach the level of the IDF (Minimum 15ft).
 
 ### Vertical Backbone
 
-|           |                                 |
+1. * `Drawing` = Telecom riser diagram
-| --------- | ------------------------------- |
+    * `Area` = "Typical - Building All Levels"
-| `Drawing` | Telecom riser diagram           |
-| `Area`    | "Typical - Building All Levels" |
 
-* **Length** = Length between floors (15ft ULO)
+    `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY & DUCTBANK CONDUIT`/...
+    * Delete elbows if unnecessary.
+    * **Length** = Height between floors (Minimum 15ft)
 
 ## Telecom Backboard
 
-As shown on plans.
+As shown on plans, only if not excluded in pro
 
-|          |                                 |
+1. * `Phase` = "Building - BOH ..."
-| -------- | ------------------------------- |
+    * `System` = "TC - Telecom Backbone"
-| `Phase`  | "Building - BOH ..."            |
-| `System` | "TC - Telecom Backbone"         |
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MISC ASSEMBLIES`/`... PLYWOOD BACKBOARD`
+    `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MISC ASSEMBLIES`/`... PLYWOOD BACKBOARD`
+    * **Count** = As shown
 
 ## Corridor Conduit (Unit MSDE to IDF)
 
-Empty conduit, either of
-* `FEEDER CONDUIT AND WIRE`/...
-* `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY & DUCTBANK CONDUIT`/...
-
 One Takeoff per Area per level
 
-* **Length** = Average of subfeed lengths × # of Units
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY & DUCTBANK CONDUIT`/...
-* **Count** = # of Units
+    * **Length** = Average of subfeed lengths * # of Units
+    * **Count** = # of Units
 
 ## Inner Duct
 
 For future use (e.g. fiber)
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`TELECOM SYSTEMS`/`INNERDUCT`/`... (GP)`
+1. `TEMPORARY ITEMS`/`MaxCell 3" 3 Cell`
+    * **Material Price** = 450.00/C
+    * **Labor Hours** = 12.00/C
+
+Alternative
+
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`TELECOM SYSTEMS`/`INNERDUCT`/`... (GP)`
 
 ## Devices
 
 As shown on plans. Ignore floor boxes, other electrical scope.
 
-`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`TELECOM SYSTEMS`/...
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`TELECOM SYSTEMS`/...
-* .../`BOH / AMENITY ASSEMBLIES`
+    * .../`BOH / AMENITY ASSEMBLIES`
-* .../`SCREWLESS DECORA COVERS UNITS / BOH`
+    * .../`SCREWLESS DECORA COVERS UNITS / BOH`
-* .../`ROUGH IN ASSY`
+    * .../`ROUGH IN ASSY`
 
 If system is included, take off _both_ rough-in and device assemblies
 in amenity areas.

the-failure-of-risk-management.md

@@ -1,19 +1,26 @@
 ---
 id: the-failure-of-risk-management
 aliases: []
+title: _The Failure of Risk Management_
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
   - status/complete
   - topic/risk
   - type/media-commentary
-title: _The Failure of Risk Management_
 ---
 # _The Failure of Risk Management_
 
-The Failure of Risk Management
+This is the commentary companion to [[hubbard_2020_failure]].
-(Why It's Broken and How to Fix It)
+
-by Douglas W. Hubbard
+_The Failure of Risk Management_ (abbreviated here as tFoRM)
+
+tFoRM is has two chief concerns:
+
+* introducing actuarial methods to industries other than insurance.
+
+* discrediting arguments against the use of actuarial methods
+    in industries other than insurance.
 
 ## Mentioned Topics and Abbreviations
 
@@ -22,7 +29,7 @@ by Douglas W. Hubbard
 * Actuarial Science
 * Options Theory (OT)
 * Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)
-* Probabalistic Risk Analysis (PRA)
+* Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA)
 * Value at Risk (VaR)
 * Loss-Exceedance Curve (LEC)
 * Risk Tolerance
@@ -39,6 +46,7 @@ but not referred to as such.
 
 As it is most commonly understood,
 risk _always_ implies a negative impact.
+Analyses that suggest otherwise are unhelpful.
 
 For boolean cases,
 risk can be represented as a vector of **probability** and **loss**.
@@ -112,7 +120,7 @@ where $Pr$ is the probability of Payoff.
 
 Expert opinion is valuable, but its weaknesses must be compensated for.
 
-<!-- TODO: -->
+%% TODO: %%
 
 Experts tend to be good at creating heuristics,
 but do not apply them consistently in practice.
@@ -251,3 +259,18 @@ Hubbard's dismissal rubs me wrong
 because it reads exactly as he describes the
 "at least we're doing _something_" argument
 throughout the book and just pages earlier.
+
+## _Loss Models_
+
+[[hubbard_2020_failure]] is obviously inspired in some part
+by [[klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models]] and its prior editions,
+which is strange because neither the text nor Klugman
+are mentioned in the text.
+
+The opening line of _Loss Models_,
+
+> [!quote] [[klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models#1.1.1 The Modeling Process]] (emphasis added)
+> The model-based approach should be considered
+> _in the context of the objectives of any given problem._
+
+is just [[#_Exsupero Ursus_]].

thoreau_1854_walden.md

@@ -9,7 +9,8 @@ tags:
   - type/media
 type: book
 title: Walden
-author: Henry David Thoreau
+authors:
+  - Henry David Thoreau
 year: 1854
 ---
 # Walden

traditional-estimating-methods.md

@@ -64,10 +64,10 @@ though most would refuse to answer anyway (see [[estimating-culture]]).
 
 #### Required Hyper-Specificity
 
-<!-- TODO:
+%% TODO:
 This section is a transcription of a dictation.
 To be condensed.
--->
+%%
 
 The reason that it's such a big deal to change between 1-hole straps and and unistrut straps
 is because it takes so long to do.

two-way-takeoff.md

@@ -25,24 +25,38 @@ title: Two-Way Takeoff
 
 ## Horizontal
 
-> `Area` = Same as Fire Command Room
+1. * `Area` = Same as Fire Command Room
 
-`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`TWO WAY COMMUNICATION ASSEMBLIES`/`2-WAY COMMUNICATION = 1" CONDUIT ...`
+    `FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`TWO WAY COMMUNICATION ASSEMBLIES`/`2-WAY COMMUNICATION = 1" CONDUIT ...`
-
+    
-**Length** = Per drawings if shown, otherwise use longer of
+    **Length** = Per drawings if shown, otherwise use longer of
-* FCR to elevator lobbies
+    * FCR to elevator lobbies
-* FCR to stairwells
+    * FCR to stairwells
-
+    
-**Count** = Number of boxes run to. Per drawings if shown, otherwise use the greater of:
+    **Count** = Number of boxes run to. Per drawings if shown, otherwise use the greater of:
-* Count of elevators
+    * Count of elevators
-* Count of stairwells
+    * Count of stairwells
 
 ## Vertical
 
-> `Area` = "Typical - Building All Levels"
+1. * `Area` = "Typical - Building All Levels"
 
-`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`TWO WAY COMMUNICATION ASSEMBLIES`/`2-WAY COMMUNICATION = 1" CONDUIT ...`
+    `FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`TWO WAY COMMUNICATION ASSEMBLIES`/`2-WAY COMMUNICATION = 1" CONDUIT ...`
+    
+    * **Length** = 15ft * Count
+    * **Count** = _match Horizontal_
 
-**Length** = 15ft x Count
+## Firefighter Phone System
 
-**Count** = match Horizontal
+> [!important]
+> These are ICC definition two-way communication systems,
+> redundant with the standard takeoff described above.
+> These assemblies can be ignored
+> unless given specific direction otherwise.
+> Confirmed by Joel Jansen 2025-12-08 in reference to 2100 Crystal Drive.
+
+`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`COMMUNICATION DEVICES ...`/`...`
+
+* firefighter phone jacks
+* fire warden station
+* fire phone cabinet

windows-setup.md

@@ -56,7 +56,7 @@ is to delete the folder and re-clone.
 
 ### Create a GitHub Repository
 
-<!-- TODO: -->
+%% TODO: %%
 
 ### Create and Push your Vault
 
@@ -74,4 +74,4 @@ git push -u origin main
 
 Add and enable the Git Community Plugin.
 
-<!-- TODO: -->
+%% TODO: %%

wolfe_1980_shadow.md

@@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ tags:
   - type/media
 type: book
 title: The Shadow of the Torturer
-author: Gene Wolfe
+authors:
+  - Gene Wolfe
 year: 1980
 series: The Book of the New Sun
 ---

wolfe_1981_claw.md

@@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ tags:
   - type/media
 type: book
 title: The Claw of the Conciliator
-author: Gene Wolfe
+authors:
+  - Gene Wolfe
 year: 1981
 series: The Book of the New Sun
 ---

wolfe_1981_sword.md

@@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ tags:
   - type/media
 type: book
 title: The Sword of the Lictor
-author: Gene Wolfe
+authors:
+  - Gene Wolfe
 year: 1981
 series: The Book of the New Sun
 ---

wolfe_1982_citadel.md

@@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ tags:
   - type/media
 type: book
 title: The Citadel of the Autarch
-author: Gene Wolfe
+authors:
+  - Gene Wolfe
 year: 1982
 series: The Book of the New Sun
 ---

wolfe_1987_urth.md

@@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ tags:
   - type/media
 type: book
 title: The Urth of the New Sun
-author: Gene Wolfe
+authors:
+  - Gene Wolfe
 year: 1987
 series: The Book of the New Sun
 ---