vault backup: 2026-03-20 16:29:51

2026-03-20 16:29:51 -04:00
parent 5176a9323f
commit 290b07b078
11 changed files with 249 additions and 14 deletions
@@ -14,5 +14,11 @@
  "foldHeading": false,
  "foldIndent": false,
  "defaultViewMode": "source",
-  "autoPairBrackets": false
+  "autoPairBrackets": false,
+  "pdfExportSettings": {
+    "pageSize": "Letter",
+    "landscape": false,
+    "margin": "0",
+    "downscalePercent": 100
+  }
 }
@@ -19,7 +19,6 @@
  "calendar",
  "periodic-notes",
  "spellcheck-toggler",
-  "obsidian-pandoc",
  "obsidian-tasks-plugin",
  "digitalgarden",
  "pdf-plus",
@@ -94,6 +94,8 @@ Reduce as appropriate.

 ## Garage

+%%
+
 Use ENT assemblies unless forbidden by spec.

 | Case              | Assembly Path (`FIXTURE ACCESSORIES`/`PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/...) |
@@ -101,6 +103,8 @@ Use ENT assemblies unless forbidden by spec.
 | Conventional Slab | .../`GARAGE FIXTURE  ENT W/#10 - STEEL OCT RING`               |
 | Precast/I-Beam    | .../`GARAGE FIXTURE W/T ROD  ENT W/#10 - STEEL OCT RING`       |

+%%
+
 If PVC is required, use following assemblies:

 | Case    | Assembly Path (`FIXTURE ACCESSORIES`/`PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/...) |
@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 ---
 id:
 aliases: []
+title: Markup vs. Margin
 tags:
  - authorship/original
  - destiny/permanent
-  - type/encyclopedia
  - status/complete
+  - type/encyclopedia
  - type/encyclopedia-entry
-title: Markup vs. Margin
 dg-publish: true
 ---
 # Markup vs. Margin
@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ $$
 \text{Markup} = \frac{\text{Profit}}{\text{Cost}}
 $$

-**Margin** describes an item's profit as a fraction of its sell price,
+**Margin** describes an item's profit as a fraction of its **sell price**,
 its cost to the customer.

 $$
@@ -38,19 +38,20 @@ Suppose a product that
 * is sold for $100

 $$
-\text{Profit} = 100 - 80 = 20, \quad
-\text{Markup} = \frac{20}{80} = 25\%, \quad
-\text{Margin} = \frac{20}{100} = 20\%
+\text{Profit} = \$100 - \$80 = \$20, \quad
+\text{Markup} = \frac{(\$20)}{\$80} = 25\%, \quad
+\text{Margin} = \frac{(\$20)}{\$100} = 20\%
 $$

-Contractors (and sellers of products and services in general)
-almost exclusively talk about profit in terms of margin.
-Even if someone says "15% _markup_"
-they may still be talking about margin.
-
 ## Converting Between Markup and Margin

 $$
 \text{Margin} = \frac{\text{Markup}}{1 + \text{Markup}}, \quad
 \text{Markup} = \frac{\text{Margin}}{1 - \text{Margin}}
-$$
+$$
+
+> [!warning]
+> Contractors (and sellers of products and services in general)
+> almost exclusively talk about profit in terms of margin.
+> **Even if someone says "15% _markup_"**
+> **they may still be talking about margin.**
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+---
+id: 2026-03-20T09:11:09-04:00
+aliases: []
+title: 2026-03-20 09:11:09
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/draft
+  - type/periodic/timestamped
+daily: "[[2026-03-20]]"
+date-created: 2026-03-20T09:11:09-04:00
+dg-publish: true
+monthly: "[[2026-03]]"
+quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]"
+weekly: "[[2026-W12]]"
+yearly: "[[2026]]"
+---
+# 2026-03-20 09:11:09
+
+follow-up to [[2026-03-19_09-00-43]]
+
+> [!quote] Josh Ford @ 2026-03-20 09:10 via Outlook
+> Good Morning, Team,
+>
+> Following up from our meeting yesterday.
+> Please see attached for the Pre-takeoff template and example.
+>
+> * The template is saved here: S:\Estimating\7 ConEst Team\ConEst Process Documents
+>
+> * When completed please save in #4. Notes & E-mails within the project folder.
+>
+> * When distribution to the team,
+>     please send content within the body of the email
+>     and not as an attachment.
+>
+> * Distribution List:
+>
+>     * To: PCM, Senior Estimator & Estimator
+>     * CC: Senior Construction Estimator, Other ConEst team members on the project, Josh Ford, Corwin Fluit & Jessalyn Williams
+>
+> * We will not use this exact template for Design Builds (remove spec portion of email),
+>     Data Centers, Stadiums or Large commercial projects (We will customize based on SOW)
+> 
+> For the tasks, I will set up a separate meeting to go over that portion,
+> feel free to leave that portion off the email until after that training.
+>
+> Let me know if you have any questions or if I forgot anything we discussed.
+>
+> Thanks everyone!
+
+BPM Task Review scheduled for [[2026-03-25]]
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+---
+id: 2026-03-20T11:05:34-04:00
+aliases: []
+title: 2026-03-20 11:05:34
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/draft
+  - type/periodic/timestamped
+dg-publish: true
+date-created: 2026-03-20T11:05:34-04:00
+daily: "[[2026-03-20]]"
+weekly: "[[2026-W12]]"
+monthly: "[[2026-03]]"
+quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]"
+yearly: "[[2026]]"
+---
+# 2026-03-20 11:05:34
+
+## The Delphi Method
+
+> [!quote] [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method)
+> The Delphi method, or Delphi technique
+> (/ˈdɛlfaɪ/ DEL-fy; also known as Estimate–Talk–Estimate, or ETE),
+> is a structured communication technique, or method,
+> originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method
+> that relies on a panel of experts.
+
+> [!quote]
+> The Delphi method assumes that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.
+
+To my knowledge,
+neither [[hubbard_2020_failure]] nor [[hubbard_2025_project-management]]
+mention the Delphi method specifically,
+but they specifically warn against this premise.
+
+It ought to be permissible in conversation
+to submit potentially relevant factors,
+but arguments on the impact of those factors
+will quickly spoil the estimate.
@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+---
+id: 2026-03-20T11:40:21-04:00
+aliases: []
+title: 2026-03-20 11:40:21
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/draft
+  - type/periodic/timestamped
+dg-publish: true
+date-created: 2026-03-20T11:40:21-04:00
+daily: "[[2026-03-20]]"
+weekly: "[[2026-W12]]"
+monthly: "[[2026-03]]"
+quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]"
+yearly: "[[2026]]"
+---
+# 2026-03-20 11:40:21
+
+## Causal Notation
+
+[Causal notation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_notation)
+may be helpful in illustrating the relationships
+between the quantities listed in
+* [[alternating-current]]
+* [[voltage-drop]]
+* [[conductor-sizing]]
+* [[conduit-sizing]]
+
+> [!quote]
+> $$
+> \begin{gather}
+> s \overset {\rightarrow}{=} a(s) \\
+> s \overset {\leftarrow}{=} b(s)
+> \end{gather}
+> $$
+> 
+> $b(s)$ causes $s$ which in turn causes $a(s)$: $b(s) \overset {\rightarrow}{=} a(s)$
+
+[Bayesian networks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_network)
+are a form of causal notation.
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+---
+id: 2026-03-20T13:18:50-04:00
+aliases: []
+title: 2026-03-20 13:18:50
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/draft
+  - type/periodic/timestamped
+dg-publish: true
+date-created: 2026-03-20T13:18:50-04:00
+daily: "[[2026-03-20]]"
+weekly: "[[2026-W12]]"
+monthly: "[[2026-03]]"
+quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]"
+yearly: "[[2026]]"
+---
+# 2026-03-20 13:18:50
+
+I've wanted for a long time to build a NAS for my [[homelab]].
+
+[DIY NAS: 2026 Edition](https://blog.briancmoses.com/2025/11/diy-nas-2026-edition.html)
@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
+---
+id: 2026-03-20T13:27:12-04:00
+aliases: []
+title: 2026-03-20 13:27:12
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/draft
+  - type/periodic/timestamped
+  - topic/risk
+dg-publish: true
+date-created: 2026-03-20T13:27:12-04:00
+daily: "[[2026-03-20]]"
+weekly: "[[2026-W12]]"
+monthly: "[[2026-03]]"
+quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]"
+yearly: "[[2026]]"
+---
+# 2026-03-20 13:27:12
+
+## Sensitivity Analysis
+
+> [!quote] [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensitivity_analysis)
+> **Sensitivity analysis** is the study of how the uncertainty
+> in the output of a mathematical model or system (numerical or otherwise)
+> can be divided and allocated to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs.
+
+That is, quantifying the influence of an input on the output.
+
+When an estimator says that some factor is not worth consideration ("it's pennies")
+it is usually meant that the estimate is not especially **sensitive** to that factor.
+
+Sensitivity, I think, is a much quicker concept to grasp
+than [[uncertainty#Value of Information|the value of information]],
+even if VOI can explain the same motivations and more completely.
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+---
+id: 2026-03-20T13:44:59-04:00
+aliases: []
+title: 2026-03-20 13:44:59
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/draft
+  - type/periodic/timestamped
+dg-publish: true
+date-created: 2026-03-20T13:44:59-04:00
+daily: "[[2026-03-20]]"
+weekly: "[[2026-W12]]"
+monthly: "[[2026-03]]"
+quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]"
+yearly: "[[2026]]"
+---
+# 2026-03-20 13:44:59
+
+Relevant to [[fire-alarm-takeoff]],
+while reviewing my takeoff for [[1990-k-street]]
+Joel had to fix the assemblies I used for unit smoke detectors.
+
+Unit plans show combo smoke/CO detectors in all cases,
+but bedroom smokes are to be smoke only
+because fire alarm is PDI Design Build to code per proposal.
@@ -93,3 +93,13 @@ Aleatory uncertainty is inherent randomness in data that can't be explained away

 Epistemic uncertainty is that which arises from a lack of knowledge,
 and can be eliminated with access to [[#information]].
+
+Under Bayesian statistics,
+all uncertainty is epistemic.
+
+## See Also
+
+* [Uncertainty analysis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_analysis)
+* [Uncertainty quantification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_quantification)
+* [Propagation of uncertainty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propagation_of_uncertainty)
+* [Sensitivity analysis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensitivity_analysis)