vault backup: 2026-03-20 16:29:51
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---
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id: 2026-03-20T09:11:09-04:00
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aliases: []
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title: 2026-03-20 09:11:09
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/draft
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- type/periodic/timestamped
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daily: "[[2026-03-20]]"
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date-created: 2026-03-20T09:11:09-04:00
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dg-publish: true
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monthly: "[[2026-03]]"
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quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]"
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weekly: "[[2026-W12]]"
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yearly: "[[2026]]"
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---
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# 2026-03-20 09:11:09
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follow-up to [[2026-03-19_09-00-43]]
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> [!quote] Josh Ford @ 2026-03-20 09:10 via Outlook
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> Good Morning, Team,
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>
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> Following up from our meeting yesterday.
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> Please see attached for the Pre-takeoff template and example.
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>
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> * The template is saved here: S:\Estimating\7 ConEst Team\ConEst Process Documents
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>
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> * When completed please save in #4. Notes & E-mails within the project folder.
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>
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> * When distribution to the team,
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> please send content within the body of the email
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> and not as an attachment.
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>
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> * Distribution List:
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>
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> * To: PCM, Senior Estimator & Estimator
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> * CC: Senior Construction Estimator, Other ConEst team members on the project, Josh Ford, Corwin Fluit & Jessalyn Williams
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>
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> * We will not use this exact template for Design Builds (remove spec portion of email),
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> Data Centers, Stadiums or Large commercial projects (We will customize based on SOW)
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>
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> For the tasks, I will set up a separate meeting to go over that portion,
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> feel free to leave that portion off the email until after that training.
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>
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> Let me know if you have any questions or if I forgot anything we discussed.
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>
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> Thanks everyone!
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BPM Task Review scheduled for [[2026-03-25]]
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---
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id: 2026-03-20T11:05:34-04:00
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aliases: []
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title: 2026-03-20 11:05:34
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/draft
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- type/periodic/timestamped
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dg-publish: true
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date-created: 2026-03-20T11:05:34-04:00
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daily: "[[2026-03-20]]"
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weekly: "[[2026-W12]]"
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monthly: "[[2026-03]]"
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quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]"
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yearly: "[[2026]]"
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---
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# 2026-03-20 11:05:34
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## The Delphi Method
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> [!quote] [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method)
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> The Delphi method, or Delphi technique
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> (/ˈdɛlfaɪ/ DEL-fy; also known as Estimate–Talk–Estimate, or ETE),
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> is a structured communication technique, or method,
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> originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method
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> that relies on a panel of experts.
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> [!quote]
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> The Delphi method assumes that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.
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To my knowledge,
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neither [[hubbard_2020_failure]] nor [[hubbard_2025_project-management]]
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mention the Delphi method specifically,
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but they specifically warn against this premise.
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It ought to be permissible in conversation
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to submit potentially relevant factors,
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but arguments on the impact of those factors
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will quickly spoil the estimate.
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@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
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---
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id: 2026-03-20T11:40:21-04:00
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aliases: []
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title: 2026-03-20 11:40:21
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/draft
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- type/periodic/timestamped
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dg-publish: true
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date-created: 2026-03-20T11:40:21-04:00
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daily: "[[2026-03-20]]"
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weekly: "[[2026-W12]]"
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monthly: "[[2026-03]]"
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quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]"
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yearly: "[[2026]]"
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---
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# 2026-03-20 11:40:21
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## Causal Notation
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[Causal notation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_notation)
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may be helpful in illustrating the relationships
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between the quantities listed in
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* [[alternating-current]]
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* [[voltage-drop]]
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* [[conductor-sizing]]
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* [[conduit-sizing]]
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> [!quote]
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> $$
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> \begin{gather}
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> s \overset {\rightarrow}{=} a(s) \\
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> s \overset {\leftarrow}{=} b(s)
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> \end{gather}
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> $$
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>
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> $b(s)$ causes $s$ which in turn causes $a(s)$: $b(s) \overset {\rightarrow}{=} a(s)$
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[Bayesian networks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_network)
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are a form of causal notation.
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---
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id: 2026-03-20T13:18:50-04:00
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aliases: []
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title: 2026-03-20 13:18:50
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/draft
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- type/periodic/timestamped
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dg-publish: true
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date-created: 2026-03-20T13:18:50-04:00
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daily: "[[2026-03-20]]"
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weekly: "[[2026-W12]]"
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monthly: "[[2026-03]]"
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quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]"
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yearly: "[[2026]]"
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---
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# 2026-03-20 13:18:50
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I've wanted for a long time to build a NAS for my [[homelab]].
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[DIY NAS: 2026 Edition](https://blog.briancmoses.com/2025/11/diy-nas-2026-edition.html)
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@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
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---
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id: 2026-03-20T13:27:12-04:00
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aliases: []
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title: 2026-03-20 13:27:12
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/draft
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- type/periodic/timestamped
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- topic/risk
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dg-publish: true
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date-created: 2026-03-20T13:27:12-04:00
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daily: "[[2026-03-20]]"
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weekly: "[[2026-W12]]"
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monthly: "[[2026-03]]"
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quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]"
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yearly: "[[2026]]"
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---
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# 2026-03-20 13:27:12
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## Sensitivity Analysis
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> [!quote] [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensitivity_analysis)
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> **Sensitivity analysis** is the study of how the uncertainty
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> in the output of a mathematical model or system (numerical or otherwise)
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> can be divided and allocated to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs.
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That is, quantifying the influence of an input on the output.
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When an estimator says that some factor is not worth consideration ("it's pennies")
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it is usually meant that the estimate is not especially **sensitive** to that factor.
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Sensitivity, I think, is a much quicker concept to grasp
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than [[uncertainty#Value of Information|the value of information]],
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even if VOI can explain the same motivations and more completely.
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@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
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---
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id: 2026-03-20T13:44:59-04:00
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aliases: []
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title: 2026-03-20 13:44:59
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/draft
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- type/periodic/timestamped
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dg-publish: true
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||||
date-created: 2026-03-20T13:44:59-04:00
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daily: "[[2026-03-20]]"
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weekly: "[[2026-W12]]"
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monthly: "[[2026-03]]"
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quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]"
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yearly: "[[2026]]"
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---
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# 2026-03-20 13:44:59
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Relevant to [[fire-alarm-takeoff]],
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while reviewing my takeoff for [[1990-k-street]]
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Joel had to fix the assemblies I used for unit smoke detectors.
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Unit plans show combo smoke/CO detectors in all cases,
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but bedroom smokes are to be smoke only
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because fire alarm is PDI Design Build to code per proposal.
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