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timestamped/2026-03-20_11-05-34.md

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+---
+id: 2026-03-20T11:05:34-04:00
+aliases: []
+title: 2026-03-20 11:05:34
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/draft
+  - type/periodic/timestamped
+dg-publish: true
+date-created: 2026-03-20T11:05:34-04:00
+daily: "[[2026-03-20]]"
+weekly: "[[2026-W12]]"
+monthly: "[[2026-03]]"
+quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]"
+yearly: "[[2026]]"
+---
+# 2026-03-20 11:05:34
+
+## The Delphi Method
+
+> [!quote] [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method)
+> The Delphi method, or Delphi technique
+> (/ˈdɛlfaɪ/ DEL-fy; also known as Estimate–Talk–Estimate, or ETE),
+> is a structured communication technique, or method,
+> originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method
+> that relies on a panel of experts.
+
+> [!quote]
+> The Delphi method assumes that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.
+
+To my knowledge,
+neither [[hubbard_2020_failure]] nor [[hubbard_2025_project-management]]
+mention the Delphi method specifically,
+but they specifically warn against this premise.
+
+It ought to be permissible in conversation
+to submit potentially relevant factors,
+but arguments on the impact of those factors
+will quickly spoil the estimate.