vault backup: 2025-07-29 16:54:53
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@@ -191,10 +191,10 @@ Use 10ft \#12/2 for MC & NM
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Length and Labor will be more than a normal fixture in BOH/Amenity
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| Fixture Type | Labor (hrs) |
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| ------------ | ----------- |
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| Non-Linear | 2 |
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| Linear | See above |
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| Fixture Type | Labor (hrs) |
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| ------------ | ----------------------------------- |
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| Non-Linear | 2 |
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| Linear | [See tape lighting](#Tape Lighting) |
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> 1. `3/4" PVC W/ 3#10 - STL BOX & TILE RING / 45 DEG STUBBY/ ENT DROP`
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> * `Length per Unit` = Distance to panel
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@@ -29,14 +29,12 @@ Expected Value (Probability × Magnitude)
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alone can not predict or inform risky decisions,
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except for risk-neutral parties.
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People and organizations are risk-averse
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...
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* [ ] Finish this paragraph. (see chapter 6) ➕ 2025-07-04
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%% TODO: ... %%
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### Expert Opinion Must Be ~~Adjusted~~
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Expert opinion is valuable despite its flaws.
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...
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%% TODO: ... %%
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The book details the statistically observable tendency for people
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to underestimate risk and to be overconfident in their beliefs.
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@@ -60,7 +58,8 @@ given the number of German pilots and their overall victory/defeat figures,
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there was a ~30% chance an individual would achieve The Red Baron's record
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_by luck alone_.
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He later refers to the tendency to overvalue competence
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He later refers to the popular tendency
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to overvalue competence and undervalue luck
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in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments
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as the "Red Baron effect".
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@@ -89,24 +88,32 @@ that X industry lacks the data to use quantitative models.
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### _Exsupero Ursus_
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> Chapter 9 p.195
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Hubbard uses _exsupero ursus_ to describe the tendency of his detractors
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to dismiss quantitative methods as inappropriate to their industry-specific risks.
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He provides another analogy in which one car is picked of two (ordinary) cars
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because the other car can't fly.
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> [!quote] Chapter 9 p.195
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> Suppose a car buyer had a choice between buying two nearly identical automobiles, Car A and Car B.
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> The only difference is that Car B is $1,000 more expensive,
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> has fifty thousand more miles, and was once driven into a lake.
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> But buyer chooses Car B because Car A doesn't fly.
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> Neither does Car B, of course,
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> but for some reason the buyer believes that Car A should fly
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> and therefore chooses Car B.
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> The buyer is committing the exsupero ursus fallacy.
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Based on this strawman it is clear Hubbard believes his detractors are _correct_
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that qualitative methods can not capture the entire nuance of risk probability,
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but that they are failing to acknowledge that their preferred alternatives
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are not demonstrably more effective at doing so.
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The nuance Hubbard dismisses without addressing is the possibility of model _improvement_.
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A most competant detractor would be aware of the apparent contradiction
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A most competent detractor would be aware of the apparent contradiction
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but argue that their methods will eventually surpass quantitative methods
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if they are further developed.
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Such a position would additionally contextualize Hubbard's observations
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that detractors become emotional in their defense.
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To them, Hubbards methods represent an attractive short-term gain
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excluding a long-term payoff.
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To them, Hubbard's methods represent an attractive short-term gain
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that would exclude a long-term payoff.
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Hubbard's dismissal rubs me wrong
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because it reads exactly as he describes the "at least we're doing _something_" argument
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@@ -40,19 +40,42 @@ tags:
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### 1. Estimate preparation
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1. Locate Unit panels and relevant keynotes
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* Bus amps
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* bus amps
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2. Read about the project specifications and construction type
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* Wood or Metal studs
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* wood or metal studs
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* wiring methods
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* NM or MC
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* Wiring device plates
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* wiring device plates
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* Decora or Standard
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* Wiring device specs
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* wiring device specs
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* are 15A devices allowed?
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* Equipment (20A Kitchen and bath)
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* equipment (20A Kitchen and bath)
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3. Fill out OneNote
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1. Fill out OneNote
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#### Load Centers
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| Rating | Assembly |
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| ------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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| <= 100A | `DIST PANELS & UNIT LOAD CENTERS`/`UNIT LOAD CENTERS - ...`/`... UNIT LOAD CENTER` |
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| > 100A | `DIST PANELS & UNIT LOAD CENTERS`/`UNIT LOAD CENTERS - ...`/`... BREAKER PNL` |
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#### Shade Control
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#### "High Lows"
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`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`TELECOM SYSTEMS`/`UNIT DATA - TELECOM`/`HIGH-LOW - TV SCOOP 1 1/2" ENT - NO CABLE`
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#### Air Sealing
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* LEED Silver
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* Draft Proof Box
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* Mid-Atlantic jobs
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`ITEM DATABASE`/`BOSES & CABINETS`/`BOXES - VAPOR`
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`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`UNITS - MC CABLE ASSEMBLIES`/`GENERAL ASSEMBLIES - METAL STUD`/`UNIT MISC ITEMS - MC - ADJUST ACCORDINGLY`
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### 2. Takeoff
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