vault backup: 2025-07-28 17:12:58
This commit is contained in:
Vendored
+1
-1
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
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{
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"collapse-filter": false,
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"search": "",
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"showTags": true,
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"showTags": false,
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"showAttachments": false,
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"hideUnresolved": true,
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"showOrphans": true,
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+6
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@@ -228,7 +228,12 @@
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"n": {},
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"Next": {}
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},
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"navigationHistory": [],
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"navigationHistory": [
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"README.md",
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"systems.md",
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"electrical.md",
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"lighting-controls.md"
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],
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"allowOntologySuggester": true,
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"ontologySuggesterParentTrigger": "::p",
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"ontologySuggesterChildTrigger": "::c",
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@@ -12,5 +12,10 @@ tags:
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> This note on the meta-formatting of this repository.
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> For contents, prose conventions, etc. see [[this-notebook]].
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* [Obsidian syntax](https://help.obsidian.md/)
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* [Markdown Oxide syntax](https://oxide.md/)
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## Syntax
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Notes are written in [Obsidian-flavored markdown](https://help.obsidian.md/),
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which is partially reimplemented by [Markdown Oxide](https://oxide.md/)
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for use in editors other than Obsidian.
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Novel syntax implemented by Obsidian plugins should be avoided.
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@@ -0,0 +1,87 @@
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---
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excalidraw-plugin: parsed
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excalidraw-default-mode: view
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excalidraw-export-dark: false
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excalidraw-export-transparent: false
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excalidraw-linkbutton-opacity: 0.3
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excalidraw-onload-script: "app.plugins.plugins[`excalibrain`].start(ea.targetView.leaf);"
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tags: [excalidraw]
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---
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# Text Elements
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Open a document in another pane and click it to get started.
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For the best experience enable 'Open in adjacent pane'
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in Excalidraw settings under 'Links and Transclusion'. ^4mylk7KK
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%%
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# Drawing
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```json
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{
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"type": "excalidraw",
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"version": 2,
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"source": "https://excalidraw.com",
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"elements": [
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{
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"type": "text",
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"version": 1,
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"versionNonce": 423577018,
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"isDeleted": false,
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"id": "4mylk7KK",
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"fillStyle": "hachure",
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"strokeWidth": 1,
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"strokeStyle": "solid",
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"roughness": 1,
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"opacity": 100,
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"angle": 0,
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"x": 0,
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"y": 0,
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"strokeColor": "white",
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"backgroundColor": "transparent",
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"width": 703,
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"height": 96,
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"seed": 4429,
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"groupIds": [],
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"strokeSharpness": "sharp",
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"boundElements": [],
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"updated": 1650784785611,
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"link": null,
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"locked": false,
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"fontSize": 20,
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"fontFamily": 3,
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"text": "Open a document in another pane and click it to get started.\n\nFor the best experience enable 'Open in adjacent pane'\nin Excalidraw settings under 'Links and Transclusion'.",
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"rawText": "Open a document in another pane and click it to get started.\n\nFor the best experience enable 'Open in adjacent pane'\nin Excalidraw settings under 'Links and Transclusion'.",
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"baseline": 91,
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"textAlign": "center",
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"verticalAlign": "top",
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"containerId": null,
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"originalText": "Open a document in another pane and click it to get started.\n\nFor the best experience enable 'Open in adjacent pane'\nin Excalidraw settings under 'Links and Transclusion'."
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}
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],
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"appState": {
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"theme": "dark",
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"viewBackgroundColor": "hsl(208, 80%, 23%)",
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"currentItemStrokeColor": "#000000",
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"currentItemBackgroundColor": "transparent",
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"currentItemFillStyle": "hachure",
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"currentItemStrokeWidth": 2,
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"currentItemStrokeStyle": "solid",
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"currentItemRoughness": 1,
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"currentItemOpacity": 100,
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"currentItemFontFamily": 1,
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"currentItemFontSize": 16,
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"currentItemTextAlign": "left",
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"currentItemStrokeSharpness": "sharp",
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"currentItemStartArrowhead": null,
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"currentItemEndArrowhead": "arrow",
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"currentItemLinearStrokeSharpness": "round",
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"gridSize": null,
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"colorPalette": {}
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},
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"files": {}
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}
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```
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%%
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@@ -4,10 +4,8 @@ aliases: []
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tags:
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- guide
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- occupational
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friends:
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- project-setup
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---
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# Estimating Workflow
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# Full Takeoff
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## Sequence
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@@ -1,29 +0,0 @@
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---
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id:
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aliases: []
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tags:
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- risk
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---
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# Perfect Information
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In [[strategy]], perfect information is hypothetical information
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that would eliminate some defined [[uncertainty]].
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## Expected Value of Perfect Information
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Expected value of perfect information (EVPI)
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is the price that one would be willing to pay
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in order to gain access to perfect information.
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The perceived _value_ of decreased uncertainty
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must be weighed against its _cost_.
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This concept provides the basis for the solution of one or more [[open-problems-in-estimating]].
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To reduce [[risk]] in [[construction-estimating]],
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an organization pays in estimator hours.
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These hours have a direct cost in salary and benefits,
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however the greater cost is the opportunity cost
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of tying up an estimator who could otherwise be starting a new project.
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In many cases, the utility of doubled throughput
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far outweighs the increased risk of individual bids.
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@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ Risk-Oriented Estimating (ROE), is a methodology for [[construction-estimating]]
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* prioritizes estimating tasks,
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* determines necessary [[estimating-detail]]
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ROE leans heavily on [[perfect-information]],
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ROE leans heavily on [[uncertainty#Value of Information]],
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which challenges the natural tendency to shy from uncertainty
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with the reality of the cost of certainty.
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@@ -41,16 +41,17 @@ ROE prioritizes estimating tasks by their contribution to _cost certainty_.
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ROE determines the appropriate level of [[estimating-detail]]
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given an organization's [[risk#Risk Tolerance]].
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## EVPI Takeoff
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### EVI Takeoff
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%%
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Expected value of information (EVI)
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## Scratch
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### Takeoff Optimization
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Expected value of perfect information (EVPI)
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For systems where EVI analysis determines manual takeoff is still necessary,
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optimizations can be made to decrease the required effort of takeoff,
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and thus the opportunity cost of takeoff.
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Count-based takeoff speed increases with count.
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%%
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Optimizing the takeoff process means:
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@@ -62,6 +63,13 @@ Optimizing the takeoff process means:
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> It appears that similar efforts have already been made here,
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> their success being a matter of perspective.
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> [!note] Naming Conventions (Use Case vs. Description)
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> Naming by use case is intuitive for those without estimating or field experience,
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> but has the side effect that those accustomed to the names will inevitably _treat them as descriptive_.
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#### Naming Conventions (Use Case vs. Description)
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Naming by use case is intuitive for those without estimating or field experience,
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but has the side effect that those accustomed to the names
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will inevitably _treat them as descriptive_.
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| Use Case | Description |
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| ------------------- | ------------- |
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| Hi-Hat | Daisy-Chain |
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| Furnished By Others | Rough-In Only |
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+48
-4
@@ -1,14 +1,57 @@
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---
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id: uncertainty
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aliases: []
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tags:
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tags:
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- risk
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---
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# Uncertainty
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The term "uncertainty" refers to the possibility of multiple outcomes.
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## Aleatory Uncertainty
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## Information
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In statistical inference and [[strategy]],
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**information** is the resolution of uncertainty.
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### Value of Information
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> [!quote]
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> **Value of information** (VOI or VoI)
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> is the amount a decision maker would be willing to pay
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> for information prior to making a decision.
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It is the value of the reduction in uncertainty
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that the information provides.
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### Expected Value of Perfect Information
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Expected value of perfect information (EVPI)
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is the price that one would be willing to pay
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in order to gain access to perfect information.
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> [!info] Perfect Information
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> Perfect information is hypothetical information
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> that would eliminate all uncertainty.
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The perceived _value_ of decreased uncertainty
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must be weighed against its _cost_.
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#### In Construction Estimating
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This concept provides the basis for the solution
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of one or more [[open-problems-in-estimating]].
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To reduce [[risk]] in [[construction-estimating]],
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an organization pays in estimator hours.
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These hours have a direct cost in salary and benefits,
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however the greater cost is the opportunity cost
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of tying up an estimator who could otherwise be starting a new project.
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In many cases, the utility of doubled throughput
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far outweighs the increased risk of individual bids.
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## Types of Uncertainty
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### Aleatory Uncertainty
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> [!info] Also Known As
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> * statistical uncertainty
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@@ -17,10 +60,11 @@ The term "uncertainty" refers to the possibility of multiple outcomes.
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Aleatory uncertainty is inherent randomness in data that can't be explained away.
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## Epistemic Uncertainty
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### Epistemic Uncertainty
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> [!info] Also Known As
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> * systematic uncertainty
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> * model uncertainty
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Epistemic uncertainty is that which arises from a lack of knowledge.
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Epistemic uncertainty is that which arises from a lack of knowledge,
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and can be eliminated with access to [[#information]].
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