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Zane Meyers
2025-07-29 16:54:53 -04:00
parent f161a5329e
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3 changed files with 52 additions and 22 deletions
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fixture-designations.md
+2 -2
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@@ -192,9 +192,9 @@ Use 10ft \#12/2 for MC & NM
Length and Labor will be more than a normal fixture in BOH/Amenity Length and Labor will be more than a normal fixture in BOH/Amenity
| Fixture Type | Labor (hrs) | | Fixture Type | Labor (hrs) |
| ------------ | ----------- | | ------------ | ----------------------------------- |
| Non-Linear | 2 | | Non-Linear | 2 |
| Linear | See above | | Linear | [See tape lighting](#Tape Lighting) |
> 1. `3/4" PVC W/ 3#10 - STL BOX & TILE RING / 45 DEG STUBBY/ ENT DROP` > 1. `3/4" PVC W/ 3#10 - STL BOX & TILE RING / 45 DEG STUBBY/ ENT DROP`
> * `Length per Unit` = Distance to panel > * `Length per Unit` = Distance to panel
the-failure-of-risk-management.md
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@@ -29,14 +29,12 @@ Expected Value (Probability × Magnitude)
alone can not predict or inform risky decisions, alone can not predict or inform risky decisions,
except for risk-neutral parties. except for risk-neutral parties.
People and organizations are risk-averse People and organizations are risk-averse
... %% TODO: ... %%
* [ ] Finish this paragraph. (see chapter 6) ➕ 2025-07-04
### Expert Opinion Must Be ~~Adjusted~~ ### Expert Opinion Must Be ~~Adjusted~~
Expert opinion is valuable despite its flaws. Expert opinion is valuable despite its flaws.
... %% TODO: ... %%
The book details the statistically observable tendency for people The book details the statistically observable tendency for people
to underestimate risk and to be overconfident in their beliefs. to underestimate risk and to be overconfident in their beliefs.
@@ -60,7 +58,8 @@ given the number of German pilots and their overall victory/defeat figures,
there was a ~30% chance an individual would achieve The Red Baron's record there was a ~30% chance an individual would achieve The Red Baron's record
_by luck alone_. _by luck alone_.
He later refers to the tendency to overvalue competence He later refers to the popular tendency
to overvalue competence and undervalue luck
in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments
as the "Red Baron effect". as the "Red Baron effect".
@@ -89,24 +88,32 @@ that X industry lacks the data to use quantitative models.
### _Exsupero Ursus_ ### _Exsupero Ursus_
> Chapter 9 p.195
Hubbard uses _exsupero ursus_ to describe the tendency of his detractors Hubbard uses _exsupero ursus_ to describe the tendency of his detractors
to dismiss quantitative methods as inappropriate to their industry-specific risks. to dismiss quantitative methods as inappropriate to their industry-specific risks.
He provides another analogy in which one car is picked of two (ordinary) cars
because the other car can't fly. > [!quote] Chapter 9 p.195
> Suppose a car buyer had a choice between buying two nearly identical automobiles, Car A and Car B.
> The only difference is that Car B is $1,000 more expensive,
> has fifty thousand more miles, and was once driven into a lake.
> But buyer chooses Car B because Car A doesn't fly.
> Neither does Car B, of course,
> but for some reason the buyer believes that Car A should fly
> and therefore chooses Car B.
> The buyer is committing the exsupero ursus fallacy.
Based on this strawman it is clear Hubbard believes his detractors are _correct_ Based on this strawman it is clear Hubbard believes his detractors are _correct_
that qualitative methods can not capture the entire nuance of risk probability, that qualitative methods can not capture the entire nuance of risk probability,
but that they are failing to acknowledge that their preferred alternatives but that they are failing to acknowledge that their preferred alternatives
are not demonstrably more effective at doing so. are not demonstrably more effective at doing so.
The nuance Hubbard dismisses without addressing is the possibility of model _improvement_. The nuance Hubbard dismisses without addressing is the possibility of model _improvement_.
A most competant detractor would be aware of the apparent contradiction A most competent detractor would be aware of the apparent contradiction
but argue that their methods will eventually surpass quantitative methods but argue that their methods will eventually surpass quantitative methods
if they are further developed. if they are further developed.
Such a position would additionally contextualize Hubbard's observations Such a position would additionally contextualize Hubbard's observations
that detractors become emotional in their defense. that detractors become emotional in their defense.
To them, Hubbards methods represent an attractive short-term gain To them, Hubbard's methods represent an attractive short-term gain
excluding a long-term payoff. that would exclude a long-term payoff.
Hubbard's dismissal rubs me wrong Hubbard's dismissal rubs me wrong
because it reads exactly as he describes the "at least we're doing _something_" argument because it reads exactly as he describes the "at least we're doing _something_" argument
units.md
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@@ -40,19 +40,42 @@ tags:
### 1. Estimate preparation ### 1. Estimate preparation
1. Locate Unit panels and relevant keynotes 1. Locate Unit panels and relevant keynotes
* Bus amps * bus amps
2. Read about the project specifications and construction type 2. Read about the project specifications and construction type
* Wood or Metal studs * wood or metal studs
* wiring methods * wiring methods
* NM or MC * NM or MC
* Wiring device plates * wiring device plates
* Decora or Standard * Decora or Standard
* Wiring device specs * wiring device specs
* are 15A devices allowed? * are 15A devices allowed?
* Equipment (20A Kitchen and bath) * equipment (20A Kitchen and bath)
3. Fill out OneNote 1. Fill out OneNote
#### Load Centers
| Rating | Assembly |
| ------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| <= 100A | `DIST PANELS & UNIT LOAD CENTERS`/`UNIT LOAD CENTERS - ...`/`... UNIT LOAD CENTER` |
| > 100A | `DIST PANELS & UNIT LOAD CENTERS`/`UNIT LOAD CENTERS - ...`/`... BREAKER PNL` |
#### Shade Control
#### "High Lows"
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`TELECOM SYSTEMS`/`UNIT DATA - TELECOM`/`HIGH-LOW - TV SCOOP 1 1/2" ENT - NO CABLE`
#### Air Sealing
* LEED Silver
* Draft Proof Box
* Mid-Atlantic jobs
`ITEM DATABASE`/`BOSES & CABINETS`/`BOXES - VAPOR`
`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`UNITS - MC CABLE ASSEMBLIES`/`GENERAL ASSEMBLIES - METAL STUD`/`UNIT MISC ITEMS - MC - ADJUST ACCORDINGLY`
### 2. Takeoff ### 2. Takeoff