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datasets/overrun-trends.tsv → .datasets/overrun-trends.tsv
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.obsidian/core-plugins.json
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assemblies.md
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---
tags:
- estimating
---
# Assemblies
In [[construction-estimating-software]],
assemblies are groups of material items
representing a specific scope of work.
Assemblies reduce the effort required for takeoff
by grouping related items,
for example 3/4" EMT connectors and couplings
in addition to conduit.
Assemblies allow... (in order of necessity):
1. complex items (devices, conduit runs, etc.) with known proportions to be counted as one.
2. changes to be made to measures and counts without recounting an entire area.
3. takeoffs to be skimmed for obvious deficiencies that would otherwise be obscured
4. changes to be made to project requirements (specifications) without recounting an entire area.
If we agree on the definition of `Branch Wiring: 2#12 #12G; 3/4"C, EMT; On Structure`
and its contents as ratios of its length,
then their quantities can be calculated with only one measurement.
This is how "estimating software" assembly takeoff works,
however its a simple generic process,
possible with several tools an estimator should be familiar with:
* `XLOOKUP()` - Excel
* `Table.Join` - MS Power Query
* `JOIN` - SQL
assembly-philosophy.md
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also "Modularization"
## Assemblies
In [[construction-estimating-software]],
[[assemblies]] are groups of material items
assemblies are groups of material items
representing a specific scope of work.
Assemblies reduce the effort required for takeoff
by grouping related items,
for example 3/4" EMT connectors and couplings
in addition to conduit.
Assemblies allow... (in order of necessity):
1. complex items (devices, conduit runs, etc.) with known proportions to be counted as one.
2. changes to be made to measures and counts without recounting an entire area.
3. takeoffs to be skimmed for obvious deficiencies that would otherwise be obscured
4. changes to be made to project requirements (specifications) without recounting an entire area.
If we agree on the definition of `Branch Wiring: 2#12 #12G; 3/4"C, EMT; On Structure`
and its contents as ratios of its length,
then their quantities can be calculated with only one measurement.
This is how "estimating software" assembly takeoff works,
however its a simple generic process,
possible with several tools an estimator should be familiar with:
* `XLOOKUP()` - Excel
* `Table.Join` - MS Power Query
* `JOIN` - SQL
## Abstract Assemblies
Assembly _philosophy_ is essentially minimizing the number of necessary counts and measurements.
More generally, it is minimizing the effort required for measurement.
## Abstract Assemblies
> [!info] Abstractions
> An abstraction is a model that intentionally ignores details
> that are irrelevant to problem it is used to solve
construction-estimating.md
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# Construction Estimating
Construction estimating is a subset of cost estimation.
Construction estimating is a subset of cost estimation.
## Purpose
The purpose of [[construction-estimating]] in practice
is not to determine the cost of the scope,
which would take far longer than allotted for bid,
### For the Solicitor
* Determine feasibility of functional requirements
> [!info] Type 2 Owners
> For some owners, money is no object,
> and standardization is far more important
> than any potential construction savings.
>
> These owners can be expected to decline every [[value-engineering]] option offered
> (see [[gold-plating]]).
### For the Contractor
* Make profit to meet growth target
* Secure work for current and projected employees (fill backlog)
%% TODO: "Determine the sale price of a service" %%
> [!aside]
> I take increasing issue with the common model
> of measuring operational success by negative overrun,
> as it is incompatible with the preferable target of estimate certainty.
#### The Role of the Estimator
The role of the estimator is to model the potential cost distribution of the project,
taking actions to reduce the model's uncertainty.
The effect of estimating methods can be represented as $d\sigma$,
thus efficiency is $\frac{d\sigma}{dt}$.
#### The Role of the Executive
The role of the executive is to allocate profit and contingency
according to the potential cost distribution
weighted by the organizational desire to win the project.
$$
{E}[P]=
$$
media-commentary/construction-estimating-using-excel.md
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---
id: construction-estimating-using-excel
aliases: []
tags:
- media-commentary
---
# *Construction Estimating Using Excel*
Construction Estimating Using Excel
(Peterson MBA PE, Steven)
432 page book
## Pros
* Lots of attractively formatted formulas for costs and quantities
### Notable Inclusions
* Lots of references
* Review questions/problems
* Detailed cost of ownership and operation of heavy equipment
* Bracketed percent calculation (bond premium)
* Glossary of terms
## Cons
* Intimidatingly long
* Teaches suboptimal excel practice
* Print-antagonistic
* Heavy use of highlighter-blue for text, unnecessary backgrounds, and coloring entire pages
* Uses a full width portion of the cover image at every chapter header
### Notable Exclusions
* Any significant detail on indirect/overhead/general expense costs
* All lumped into the 6 page Chapter 25 - Markups
## Target audience
* Construction project managers with no prior experience estimating or using excel
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---
id: electrical-estimating-methods
aliases: []
tags:
- media-commentary
---
# *Electrical Estimating Methods*
Electrical Estimating Methods, Fourth Edition
(Wayne J. Del Pico)
264 page book
## Pros
* Clear and condensed prose
* Lots of philosophy
* Practical attitude
* Includes an appendix of common symbols and abbreviations
## Cons
* Some confusing non-electrical considerations/tangents (lap)
* Doesn't acknowledge lack of standardization of certain terms
(direct/indirect only, no incidental)
## Best Suited For
* Study by estimators in training
* Reference by estimating teams looking to standardize procedures and terminology
## Overall
* Incredible book, I would love to have a copy
media-commentary/electrical-estimators-manual.md
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---
id: electrical-estimators-manual
aliases: []
tags:
- media-commentary
---
# *Electrical Estimators Manual*
Electrical Estimators Manual:
How to Estimate Electrical Construction Projects Including Everyday Labor Installation Rates
(William Penn)
199 page book
## Pros
* Intelligent prose where present
* Condensed
* Notable Inclusions
* Labor hours
* Unit conversions
* too many, including rare units
* Checklist
* VERY brief
* Sample forms for small-scale manual estimation
## Cons
* No mention of certain fundamental topics:
* Expenses
* Indirect labor
* Overhead
* Purely instruction, no philosophy
* Avoids addressing complications
## Best Suited For
* General info for electricians with no prior estimating experience
* Use as a manual for very small outfits
## Overall
* Really more of a labor units manual than an estimating manual
media-commentary/mike-holts-illustrated-guide-to-electrical-estimating.md
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---
id: mike-holts-illustrated-guide-to-electrical-estimating
aliases: []
tags:
- media-commentary
---
# *Mike Holt's Illustrated Guide to Electrical Estimating*
Holt, C. M. (2023). Mike Holt's Illustrated Guide to Electrical Estimating. Mike Holt Enterprises, Inc
234 page textbook
## Pros
* Attractive design
* Detailed color illustrations
* Compelling topic organization and progression
## Cons
* No mention of RFQ process
* Many/most topics are grossly oversimplified
* Tone is undeservedly authoritative and principled,
refusing to acknowledge the questions of complexity
that the content itself begs
> "Never make assumptions"
> What happens when RFI's go unanswered?
## Best Suited For
* Electricians with no prior estimating experience and no real need of detail
## Overall
This book is far too large in scope to lack the detail it does. The curriculum
is clearly designed for those unlikely to need or understand its topics
new-additions/the-failure-of-risk-management.md → media-commentary/the-failure-of-risk-management.md
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---
id: the-failure-of-risk-management
aliases: []
tags: []
tags:
- media-commentary
---
# *The Failure of Risk Management*
The Failure of Risk Management
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# Monte Carlo Methods
> [!quote]
> [Monte Carlo methods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method),
> or Monte Carlo experiments, are a broad class of computational algorithms
> that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results.
> The underlying concept is to use randomness to solve problems
> that might be deterministic in principle.
Popular examples of Monte Carlo methods include
estimating the area of an irregular shape
by randomly sampling points in a known area,
and estimating the value of pi
by tossing toothpicks onto a ruled surface.
[Professor Art Owen](https://artowen.su.domains/) at Stanford University
has several excellent resources on the subject.
new-additions/abbreviations.md
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---
id: abbreviations
aliases: []
tags: []
aliases:
tags:
---
# Abbreviations
## Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA)
necessary-automation.md → new-additions/automation/necessary-automation.md
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portable-tools.md → new-additions/automation/portable-tools.md
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possible-automation.md → new-additions/automation/possible-automation.md
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new-additions/evpi-takeoff.md
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# EVPI Takeoff
Expected value of perfect information (EVPI)
Count-based takeoff speed increases with count.
***
Optimizing the takeoff process means:
* *Minimizing* the need for information outside of drawings
* *Maximizing* organizational consistency
***
Recent events have complicated my philosophy above.
It appears that similar efforts have already been made here,
their success being a matter of perspective.
## Naming Conventions (Use Case vs. Description)
Naming by use case is intuitive for those without estimating or field experience,
but has the side effect that those accustomed to the names will inevitably treat them as descriptive.
new-additions/excel-macros.md
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aliases: []
tags: []
---
# Excel Macros
Excel macros are a poor solution for most problems,
new-additions/takeoff/breakdowns.md
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---
id: breakdowns
aliases: []
tags: []
---
# Breakdowns
Managing breakdowns is the most time consuming part of takeoff.
@@ -5,76 +10,73 @@ Assembly selection is comparatively quick compared to Anywhere.
## Site
Area: `2 - Site`
Phase: `Site`
Area: "2 - Site"
Phase: "Site"
## Garage
### General
Area: `XX - Level P1 Garage`
Phase: `Garage`
`XX - Level P1 Garage`
`XX - Level P1 Building`
Area: "XX - Level P1 Garage"
Phase: "Garage"
### Stairwells
Area: `S - Stairwells Garage`
Phase: `Garage`
Area: "S - Stairwells Garage"
Phase: "Garage"
## Building
### General
Area: `XX - Level XX Building`
Phase: `Building - BOH, Storage & Common`
Area: "XX - Level XX Building"
Phase: "Building - BOH, Storage & Common"
### Corridors
Area: `XX - Level XX Building`
Phase: `Building - Corridors`
Area: "XX - Level XX Building"
Phase: "Building - Corridors"
### Stairwells
Area: `S - Stairwells Building`
Phase: `Building - BOH, Storage & Common`
Area: "S - Stairwells Building"
Phase: "Building - BOH, Storage & Common"
### Rentable
#### Residential
Area: `XX - Level XX Building`
Phase: `Unit Residential`
Area: "XX - Level XX Building"
Phase: "Unit Residential"
#### Hotel
Area: `XX - Level XX Building`
Phase: `Unit Key`
Area: "XX - Level XX Building"
Phase: "Unit Key"
### Interior Amenity
#### General
Area: `XX - Level XX Amenity Building`
Phase: `Interior Amenity`
Area: "XX - Level XX Amenity Building"
Phase: "Interior Amenity"
#### Kitchen
Area: `XX - Level XX Kitchen Building`
Phase: `Kitchen`
Area: "XX - Level XX Kitchen Building"
Phase: "Kitchen"
#### Retail
Area: `XX - Level XX Retail Building`
Phase: `Retail`
Area: "XX - Level XX Retail Building"
Phase: "Retail"
#### Ballroom
Area: `XX - Level XX Ballroom Building`
Phase: `Ballrooms`
Area: "XX - Level XX Ballroom Building"
Phase: "Ballrooms"
### Exterior Amenity
Area: `XX - Level XX Exterior Amenity Building`
Phase: `Exterior Amenity (Courtyards, Pool Decks)`
Area: "XX - Level XX Exterior Amenity Building"
Phase: "Exterior Amenity (Courtyards, Pool Decks)"
new-additions/takeoff/designations.md
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---
id: designations
aliases: []
tags: []
---
# Designations
## Building Designations
new-additions/takeoff/electrical.md
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---
id: electrical
aliases: []
tags: []
---
# Final SOE
## 1. Trash Chute
- Check elevations for floor height
- Uncheck Link 'Enable Livecount'
- CA.33(Misc. Ass.). 2
- 100' Horizontal (If not shown)
- Vertical Put in Typical
Horizontal:
- Check if shown on power drawings as mech connection
- If not, use 100ft length
- Check Bottom of chute if taken off already in elec. THIS IS ONLY FOR THE HORIZONTAL
Vertical (Riser):
- Takeoff: `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MISC ASSEMBLIES`/`TRASH CHUTE RISER CIRCUIT...`
- Uncheck Link 'Enable Livecount'
- Takeoff in Typical
- Length = average floor to floor height
## 2. CU/IP
@@ -17,46 +24,67 @@
## 3. Slab Deck
- Create Area Typical for every Concrete slab floor
- ID.37.16.1
- ID. MISC PDI PRODUCT. MISC MATERIAL. SLAB/DECK
- 2 Typicals
Create Area Typicals for every Concrete slab floor:
- 'All Building'
- 1 every level (Not Roof)
- HD 1 Per Section
- 1 every level (Not Roof)
- HD: 1 Per Section
- 'All Garage'
- 1 every level
- 1 every level
- Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`MISC PDI PRODUCT`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK & FEEDER`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK (NAILS, PAINT, TAPE, ETC = $250)`
- 1 Takeoff each Typical, Count = 1
## 4. Temporary Power & Lighting
### 4.1 Temp Power
```
Area = ""
Area = "2 - Site"
Phase = "Temp Power"
System = "TPS - Temp Power Service (Site)"
BidItem = "1 - Site"
```
Hoxton Hotel (aka Nashville Hotel)
- Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`TEMPORARY POWER - * SERVICE`
### 4.2A Temp Lighting (Building)
```
Area = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Building"
Phase = "Temp Power"
System = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
BidItem = "3 - Building"
```
- ID.27.
- 3/4/5 (A-bid>>)
- 8/9
- Total GSF - Garage GSF = Building Size
- Garage SF = Temp lighting Garage
- Enter in count
- Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)`
- *Count* = Building Size = Total GSF - Garage GSF
Gardens: Take off 1 Tpole `ID.28.1` per 150' per building
Garden Styles:
- Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`TEMPORARY POWER - T POLE (EACH)`
- *Count* = 1 per 150' per building
TEMP LIGHTING ^^^^
### 4.2B Temp Lighting (Garage)
```
Area = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Building"
Phase = "Temp Power"
System = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
BidItem = "3 - Building"
```
- Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)`
- *Count* = Garage SF
## 5. Irrigation pumps
- SYSTEM: `MISC - Site Miscellaneous`
```
Area = "2 - Site"
Phase = "Temp Power"
System = `MISC - Site Miscellaneous`
BidItem = "1 - Site"
```
- (3) 3Phase 30A 200' Mech. Con.
- Append to name: "Irrigation Pump - "
## 6. Lightning Protection
- Check line Item on Proposal
- Go to the notes and take off
- Append to name: "Irrigation Pump - "
new-additions/takeoff/scratch.md → new-additions/takeoff/feeders.md
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# PDI Takeoff Scratch
Notes taken in review with Joel.
%% TODO: Split to more appropriate notes and delete this one. %%
# Feeders
* Use 15ft adders for site runs
(primaries, secondaries, etc.),
as opposed to standard 10ft adder,
to account for variability.
new-additions/takeoff/lighting-controls.md
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# Lighting Controls Takeoff
# Lighting Controls
## Information
> [!info] Lighting Control Technologies
> * Triac (Line voltage dim)
> * Analog (0-10V dim)
> * Digital
> * Wireless
All these control methods are likely to appear in drawings.
## Conventions
By PDI convention, lighting controls are generally "Electrical", not "Lighting".
All control methods are likely to appear in drawings.
* Triac (Line voltage dim)
* Analog (0-10V dim)
* Digital
* Wireless
> [!info] "Local Control" as a PDI proposal qualification
> The term "local control only" is sometimes used to indicate
> no consideration for *any* lighting control beyond standard devices,
> (with `$D`s being the triac type)
> (with `$D`'s being the triac type)
> however, this phrasing is ambiguous and non-universal.
> Confirm with the bid team on what must be included.
## Custom Switch Boxes
## Scope
### Designations
#### Custom Switch Boxes
For switch combinations not in `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`,
create heating designations based on the most similar.
### Naming
#### Format
```regex
<phase-abbr> - <assembly>(\: <subtype>)?( - <fixture-labor>)? \(<wiring-method>\)( <wm-descriptor>)* <branch-length>ft
```
> [!example]
> `A - Surface: Pendant - 2.0hrs (MC) LV 20ft`
create heating [[designations]] based on the most similar.
new-additions/takeoff/lighting.md
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@@ -1,8 +1,14 @@
# Lighting Takeoff (Fixtures)
# Lighting (Fixtures)
## Naming
## Info
### Format
## Scope
### Building Designations
#### Naming
##### Format
```regex
<phase-abbr> - <assembly>(\: <subtype>)?( - <fixture-labor>)? \(<wiring-method>\)( <wm-descriptor>)* <branch-length>ft
@@ -11,7 +17,7 @@
> [!example]
> `A - Surface: Pendant - 2.0hrs (MC) LV 20ft`
### Order
#### Order
Use empty designations to separate phases.
@@ -28,7 +34,7 @@ Use empty designations to separate phases.
> CU - Surface: Wall (MC) LV 25ft
> ```
## Fixture Labor
#### Fixture Labor
> | Fixture Type | Labor |
> | ------------ | -------------- |
@@ -41,7 +47,7 @@ Use empty designations to separate phases.
>
> [^1]: Determine exact labor from fixture and size.
## Fixture Branch Length
#### Fixture Branch Length
> | Case | Standard Length |
> | ------------- | --------------- |
@@ -58,7 +64,7 @@ Use empty designations to separate phases.
>
> [^2]: See fixture types below for special cases.
## Fixture Branch Wire size
#### Fixture Branch Wire size
> | Case | Wire Size |
> | -------------- | --------- |
@@ -71,9 +77,9 @@ Use empty designations to separate phases.
>
> [^2]: Kitchen and bathroom fixtures shall be #12 (NOT #14) on wood frame (NM) projects.
## Garage
#### Garage
### Fixtures
#### Fixtures
Use ENT Assembly unless spec requires otherwise.
@@ -87,7 +93,7 @@ If PVC, use following assemblies:
| Ceiling | `PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/`... - SLAB BOX / 45 DEG STUBBY` |
| Wall | `PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/`... - STL BOX & TILE RING / 45 DEG STUBBY/ ENT DROP` |
### Homeruns
#### Homeruns
> `System` = "EL - Electrical"
@@ -95,13 +101,14 @@ Use 1 Homerun for every 3 circuits in Garage
Use assembly `Common Assemblies`/`Device Homeruns in Slab/Deck`
## Surface Mount
#### Surface Mount
* Wall Mount (Sconce)
* Pendant
* Linear
* Tape
* Track
> [!info] Surface Mount Fixtures
> * Wall Mount (Sconce)
> * Pendant
> * Linear
> * Tape
> * Track
| Wiring Method | Assembly Path |
| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
@@ -114,7 +121,7 @@ Use assembly `Common Assemblies`/`Device Homeruns in Slab/Deck`
> [!note]
> Use lighting control cable assemblies in Amenity areas
### Tape Lighting
##### Tape Lighting
Also called "cove" or "strip",
however those terms are less specific
@@ -132,34 +139,24 @@ and change `Fct 1` to match the calculated labor.
Separate these fixtures by labor, not length
```
A - Tape 0.5hr (1-6ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 1.0hr (7-12ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 1.5hr (13-18ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 2.0hr (19-24ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 2.5hr (25-30ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 3.0hr (31-36ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 3.5hr (37-42ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 4.0hr (43-48ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 4.5hr (49-54ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 5.0hr (55-60ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 5.5hr (61-66ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 6.0hr (67-72ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 6.5hr (73-78ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 7.0hr (79-84ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 7.5hr (85-90ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 8.0hr (91-96ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 8.5hr (97-102ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 9.0hr (103-108ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 9.5hr (109-114ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 10.0hr (115-120ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Surface: Tape - 0.5hr (01-06ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Surface: Tape - 1.0hr (07-12ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Surface: Tape - 1.5hr (13-18ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Surface: Tape - 2.0hr (19-24ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Surface: Tape - 2.5hr (25-30ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Surface: Tape - 3.0hr (31-36ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Surface: Tape - 3.5hr (37-42ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Surface: Tape - 4.0hr (43-48ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Surface: Tape - 4.5hr (49-54ft) - MC #12 40ft
```
## Recessed
#### Recessed
* recessed downlight
* recessed linear
* wall grazer
* troffer
> [!info] Recessed Fixtures
> * recessed downlight
> * recessed linear
> * wall grazer
> * troffer
| Wiring Method | Assembly Path |
| ------------- | ------------------------------ |
@@ -173,7 +170,7 @@ round up to the nearest 5ft
> [!note]
> "HI HAT" refers to a recessed can fixture.
## Undercabinet Fixtures
#### Undercabinet Fixtures
| Wiring Method | Assembly Path |
| ------------- | ------------------------------------- |
@@ -183,9 +180,9 @@ round up to the nearest 5ft
> [!note]
> Takeoff 2 fixtures if jumping over oven
Use 10ft #12/2 for MC & NM
Use 10ft \#12/2 for MC & NM
## Paddle Fans
#### Paddle Fans
| Wiring Method | Assembly Path |
| ------------- | ----------------------------------------------------- |
@@ -193,11 +190,11 @@ Use 10ft #12/2 for MC & NM
| MC Cable | `MC ASSEMBLIES`/`FAN RATED OCT BOX W/ BAR HNGR - ...` |
| PVC | `PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/`... - SLAB BOX / 45 DEG STUBBY` |
## Stairwells & Elevators
#### Stairwells & Elevators
`PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/`... - SLAB BOX / 45 DEG STUBBY`
## Facade
#### Facade
> `Phase` = "Facade"
@@ -211,24 +208,25 @@ Length and Labor will be more than a normal fixture in BOH/Amenity
> 1. `3/4" PVC W/ 3#10 - STL BOX & TILE RING / 45 DEG STUBBY/ ENT DROP`
> * `Length per Unit` = Distance to panel
## Porte Cochere (Drive up Area)
#### Porte Cochere (Drive up Area)
Create its own breakout in WBS, and phase in Accubid
This is not technically exposed or drop ceiling, but still use PVC
> [!quote]
> This is not technically exposed or drop ceiling, but still use PVC
## FAA Lighting
#### FAA Lighting
> 1. `FIXTURE LABOR`/`FIXTURE LABOR 1HR`
> 2. `FESTOON & ROOF ASSEMBLIES`/`Aircraft Warning, 3/4" Conduit GRC/PVC 2#10, 1#10G`
# Site & Courtyard
### Site & Courtyard
## Breakdowns
#### Breakdowns
> `System` = "FML - Site Fixtures Material & Labor"
> System: "FML - Site Fixtures Material & Labor"
## Fixture Assemblies
#### Fixture Assemblies
> | Fixture Type | Assembly Path |
> | ------------------------------------ | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
@@ -243,12 +241,14 @@ This is not technically exposed or drop ceiling, but still use PVC
>
> [^2]: Per Corwin: Hand rail lights should have a rigid 90 stub up and some flex
### Festoon Lighting
##### Festoon Lighting
AKA "string" or "market" lights
> AKA "string" or "market" lights
> 1. `FIXTURE LABOR`/`FIXTURE LABOR 2HR`
> 2. `FESTOON & ROOF ASSEMBLIES`/`FESTOON CABLE HANGER & EYE BOLTS - LENGTH`
> * `Length per Unit` = Light string length
> 3. `COURTYARDS & LANDSCAPE`/`ALUM BOX W/ FLEX FIX, 3/4" CONDUIT - PVC40 - ...`
> * `Length per Unit` = Distance to panel + 15ft
### Takeoff
new-additions/takeoff/lightning-protection.md
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# Lightning Protection
## Info
Two Types:
- Protection \$\$\$
- Prevention \$
- ESE (EARLY STREAMER EMISSIONS)
## Estimate Scope
May or may not be included, see proposal on [[bpm|BPM]]
### Subcontractors
Find lightning protection subcontractor quotes on BPM
> [!tip]
> While you have them open, put the quote costs in Accubid.
Search the quotes for direction on downlead counts, total length, and conduit size
> [!example]
> Contractor to furnish 1,980' of 1" PVC conduit and pull string
If no quote is available:
- **Downlead locations** = building corners + additional locations
such that downlead spacing is not greater than 100ft
- Minimum 10 locations for High Rise
- **Total downlead conduit length** = building height * downlead locations
- **Conduit size** = 1-1/4"
### Takeoff
```
Area = "Lightning Protection" // confirm
Phase = "Building - BOH, Storage & Common"
System = "LPT - Lightning Protection"
BidItem = "3 - Building"
```
- Takeoff: `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY CONDUIT`/`PVC ASSEMBLIES`/`* CONDUIT - PVC40`
- **Length** = total downlead conduit length
- **Count** = downlead locations
- Add item: `ITEM DATABASE`/`BOXES & CABINETS`/`JUNCTION BOXES AND INDUSTRIAL CABINETS`/
`BOXES - HNGD CVR - PAINTED STEEL - NEMA 1`/` 6x 4x 4" BOX HNGD CVR - NEMA 1`
new-additions/takeoff/project-setup.md
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@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
# Project Setup
## Create Project Folder
```pwsh
# Copy template folder to
Set-Location "\\EgnyteDrive\Shared\Estimating\7 ConEst Team\Projects\ConEst 2025\"
Copy-Item ".\z.Template Folder\" ".\$region\$projectName"
```
## Download Project Documents
```
Set-Location ".\$region\$projectName"
# Download docs from BPM to ".\3. Plans & Spec's"
# TODO: Automate
# copying from "\\EgnyteDrive\Shared\Estimating\$region\00 Open Bids\$projectName"
# may be more practical
```
## Create Unit Matrix
See Architecturals
## Create Area Breakout
`SF Calcs.xlsx`
## Create Blank WBS
```pwsh
Set-Location "\\EgnyteDrive\Shared\Estimating\19 WBS Agreement GP"
Copy-Item ".\1. Wizard Template - WBS\MEP Wizard v3.111.4 (7-21-2025)(Summary Adjustments).xlsm" \
".\2. Blank Project WBS\2025\$projectName WBS $date.xlsm"
```
## Create LiveCount Project
- In [Trimble Connect](https://web.connect.trimble.com),
find the project "CONEST TEMPLATE",
open its context menu,
then click "Use as template for a new project".
- Ensure all checkboxes are checked,
then click `Next`.
- Name with format "{Project Name} - ConEst".
Refresh the page and open the newly created project.
## Upload Drawings to LiveCount
```
# Extract drawings to ".\Trimble Connect (Plans)"
```
Upload extracted drawings to LiveCount
## Create Accubid Job
> [!important]
> The LiveCount project must be created **before**
> creating the Accubid job.
- Create a new Accubid job:
Path: "\\EgnyteDrive\Shared\Trimble\Accubid\Bid\{Project Name} - ConEst.es16"
## Add Drawings to Accubid Job
- In the LiveCount window, find `Document Manager` > `Select Existing Project`.
Add all previously uploaded drawings.
expected-value-of-perfect-information.md → perfect-information.md
+9 -4
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@@ -1,8 +1,13 @@
# Expected Value of Perfect Information
# Perfect Information
In [[decision-theory]], the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)
In [[strategy]], perfect information is hypothetical information
that would eliminate some defined [[uncertainty]].
## Expected Value of Perfect Information
Expected value of perfect information (EVPI)
is the price that one would be willing to pay
in order to gain access to [[perfect-information]]
in order to gain access to perfect information.
The perceived *value* of decreased uncertainty
must be weighed against its *cost*.
@@ -15,4 +20,4 @@ however the greater cost is the opportunity cost
of tying up an estimator who could otherwise be starting a new project.
In many cases, the utility of doubled throughput
far outweighs the increased risk of individual bids.
far outweighs the increased risk of individual bids.
purpose-of-estimating.md
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@@ -1,51 +0,0 @@
# The Purpose of Estimating
%% TODO: The content of this note is likely better put elsewhere %%
## The Purpose of Construction Cost Estimation
The purpose of [[construction-estimating]] in practice
is not to determine the cost of the scope,
which would take far longer than allotted for bid,
## For the Solicitor
* Determine feasibility of functional requirements
> [!info] Type 2 Owners
> For some owners, money is no object,
> and standardization is far more important
> than any potential construction savings.
>
> These owners can be expected to decline every [[value-engineering]] option offered
> (see [[gold-plating]]).
## For the Contractor
* Make profit to meet growth target
* Secure work for current and projected employees (fill backlog)
%% TODO: "Determine the sale price of a service" %%
> [!aside]
> I take increasing issue with the common model
> of measuring operational success by negative overrun,
> as it is incompatible with the preferable target of estimate certainty.
### The Role of the Estimator
The role of the estimator is to model the potential cost distribution of the project,
taking actions to reduce the model's uncertainty.
The effect of estimating methods can be represented as $d\sigma$,
thus efficiency is $\frac{d\sigma}{dt}$.
### The Role of the Executive
The role of the executive is to allocate profit and contingency
according to the potential cost distribution
weighted by the organizational desire to win the project.
$$
{E}[P]=
$$
risk-oriented-estimating.md
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@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ Risk-Oriented Estimating (ROE), is a methodology for [[construction-estimating]]
* prioritizes estimating tasks,
* determines necessary [[estimating-detail]]
ROE leans heavily on [[expected-value-of-perfect-information]],
ROE leans heavily on [[perfect-information]],
which challenges the natural tendency to shy from uncertainty
with the reality of the cost of certainty.
@@ -18,9 +18,17 @@ ROE does not endorse common shortcuts that round up to "cover" uncertainty,
as these ultimately _increase_ risk by inflating the apparent project cost,
increasing the probability of loss to a competitor.
> Bid risk may fit a [Taleb distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taleb_distribution).
%%
## Scratch
> Actuarial Science
Bid risk may fit a [Taleb distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taleb_distribution).
Actuarial Science
Estimating as risk mitigation,
resources allocated by Return on Mitigation (RoM)
%%
## Prioritizing Tasks
@@ -31,3 +39,26 @@ ROE prioritizes estimating tasks by their contribution to _cost certainty_.
ROE determines the appropriate level of [[estimating-detail]]
given an organization's [[risk#Risk Tolerance]].
## EVPI Takeoff
%%
## Scratch
Expected value of perfect information (EVPI)
Count-based takeoff speed increases with count.
%%
Optimizing the takeoff process means:
* *Minimizing* the need for information outside of drawings
* *Maximizing* organizational consistency
> [!note]
> Recent events have complicated my philosophy above.
> It appears that similar efforts have already been made here,
> their success being a matter of perspective.
> [!note] Naming Conventions (Use Case vs. Description)
> Naming by use case is intuitive for those without estimating or field experience,
> but has the side effect that those accustomed to the names will inevitably *treat them as descriptive*.
risk.md
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@@ -4,8 +4,6 @@ tags:
---
# Risk
## In Common Use
Risk, in common parlance, is the chance that something "bad" will happen.
As such, it is generally understood as a binary, win/loss relationship.
@@ -18,7 +16,7 @@ and is the sort assumed when using [[risk-registers]].
## In Cost Estimation
The prior model is well suited to project management,
which (being reductive) cares about "why"s,
which (being reductive) cares about why's,
where cost estimation only cares about the bottom line.
It is generally not useful for construction cost estimation.
software-based-estimating.md
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@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ independent of any specific example of [[construction-estimating-software]]
Most estimating manuals treat "software based estimating" as an afterthought,
when in practice there's no meaningful difference in practice from manual.
* Manual estimation is best done in terms of [[assemblies]] anyway.
* Manual estimation is best done in terms of [[assembly-philosophy#Assemblies|assemblies]] anyway.
* On-screen takeoff just eliminates a single manual process.
* Any estimator trained on Accubid could do the same by hand, the methodology is quite transparent.
* At what point in Excel automation does manual estimation become software based?
strategy.md
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@@ -2,9 +2,7 @@
The field of strategy is concerned with the optimal solutions of problematic scenarios.
## Disciplines
### Decision Theory
## Decision Theory
Decision theory concerns
@@ -12,14 +10,14 @@ Decision theory concerns
* ~~no competition~~
* ~~internal optimization~~
### Game Theory
## Game Theory
Game theory concerns decisions made in competition with other intelligent actors.
Predictions of competitor behavior in bids and market movements
are made with a game-theoretic lens.
#### Auction Theory
### Auction Theory
Auction theory is a subset of game theory
that specifically addresses the competitive bid format
supertopics.md
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@@ -2,3 +2,7 @@
Supertopics are a concept that I use
to visualize and categorize my knowledge and interests.
They are a group of topics that,
while they may seem disparate in a vacuum,
are all fundamental to a greater understanding of the whole.
templates/System.md
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@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
---
id: {{title}}
aliases: []
tags: [
- system
]
---
# {{title}}
## Info
## Conventions
## Scope
### Takeoff
traditional-estimating-methods.md
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@@ -5,5 +5,7 @@ Also "single-point estimation" as opposed to the standard three-point.
"Traditional estimating methods" as referenced frequently in [[this notebook]]
are those [[construction-estimating]] methods that produce:
* an exhaustive and specific bill of material
* a single definitive final price for each bid item
* an *exhaustive* and *specific* bill of material
* a single, definitive final price for each bid item
Such methods lack the ability to intelligently express [[uncertainty]].
uncertainty.md
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@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
---
tags:
id: uncertainty
aliases: []
tags: []
---
# Uncertainty