vault backup: 2025-07-22 16:59:59

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---
id: abbreviations
aliases: []
tags: []
aliases:
tags:
---
# Abbreviations
## Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA)
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---
tags:
- software
---
# Necessary Automation
This file describes functionality that
* Can be explained relatively easily
* Benefits greatly from consistency
* Is unlikely to need frequent maintenance
## Standard Emails
[Outlook Email Automation with PowerShell](https://devblogs.microsoft.com/premier-developer/outlook-email-automation-with-powershell)
## PERSONAL.xlsb
Vendor Quote UserForm
other frequently referenced values
## Job Handler
Use-case specific wrapper for a document database like MongoDB.
### Features
Features below are in addition to those of Vanilla Atlas.
#### Extract from Bid Boards
```sh
> jobHandler --new project --from-web https://app.buildingconnected.com/opportunities/66fab32654ef4e1affd178e0/info
...
```
```sh
> jobHandler --select project freezpak
jobHandler\FreezPak Cold Storage> --add-details --from-web https://app.buildingconnected.com/opportunities/66fab32654ef4e1affd178e0/info
...
```
## Standard Structured Text for Projects
Markdown with YAML frontmatter is an excellent choice for project documentation
which offers a compromise between interoperability and flexibility.
* [x] Create an `Import-Markdown` returning `frontmatter` and `body` objects.
* [ ] Create vscode workflows for formatting frontmatters and calculating properties.
* [ ] Integrate my "Estimating Work" and "Notebook" folders
* Before my plaintext renaissance, I used to need many more .xlsx and .pdf files
for a single project. It makes better sense for `Sources.xlsx` to be .yaml
Ultimately most project information could be formatted in markdown and yaml files,
greatly aiding in:
* quick research
* data aggregation and analysis
* version control and backups
* software independence
without compromising on professional output.
Even proposals are truly better suited to this format as,
neglecting the former benefits,
markdown can be rendered with standard stylesheets for improved consistency.
Sublime is a friendly option for non-technical users.
## Estimate Objects
## Wiring Method Parser
```
3#12 #12G 3/4"C
```
@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
---
tags:
- software
---
# Portable Tools
* pandoc
* miktex-portable.exe
* w64devkit
* peazip
* PortableGit
* VSCode
* FlaUInspect
* gnuplot
Ruby may be possible to make portable,
which may make these possible as well:
* Asciidoctor
* Antora
* taskjuggler
@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
---
tags:
- software
---
# Possible Automation
This file describes functionality that
* would confuse most people I attempted to explain it to
* would save little time overall
* is unlikely to work in a significant number of cases
Nonetheless I feel the need to write them somewhere.
## Travel Distance Calculation
The obvious answer is the (paid) google maps api.
there may be a free api somewhere, too.
But why deprive ourselves of a "fun" exercise?
1. Get coordinates of every municipality in Georgia
2. Get straight-line distance and heading from each to Macon
3. Manually enter google maps estimates for a couple dozen
4. Get a formula $T(d,θ)$ and calculate the rest
## Extract Bluebeam Markups from Pdf
Right now I'm exporting Bluebeam markups to csv before processing,
however if I converted to the code to extract the markups directly with MuPDF.Net
as I've managed before with itext, that could save a step.
## Panel Schedule Machine Learning
I have a fair number of labeled panel schedules from previous jobs
that would be ripe for training.
## Misc Web Scrapers
[#12 Stranded THHN 1000ft](https://www.homedepot.com/b/12/Stranded/1000-ft/12/1/N-5yc1vZ1z0np5dZ1z113htZ1z1uh20Z1z1uhk9/Ntk-elasticplus/Ntt-Thhn)
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# EVPI Takeoff
Expected value of perfect information (EVPI)
Count-based takeoff speed increases with count.
***
Optimizing the takeoff process means:
* *Minimizing* the need for information outside of drawings
* *Maximizing* organizational consistency
***
Recent events have complicated my philosophy above.
It appears that similar efforts have already been made here,
their success being a matter of perspective.
## Naming Conventions (Use Case vs. Description)
Naming by use case is intuitive for those without estimating or field experience,
but has the side effect that those accustomed to the names will inevitably treat them as descriptive.
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aliases: []
tags: []
---
# Excel Macros
Excel macros are a poor solution for most problems,
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---
id: breakdowns
aliases: []
tags: []
---
# Breakdowns
Managing breakdowns is the most time consuming part of takeoff.
@@ -5,76 +10,73 @@ Assembly selection is comparatively quick compared to Anywhere.
## Site
Area: `2 - Site`
Phase: `Site`
Area: "2 - Site"
Phase: "Site"
## Garage
### General
Area: `XX - Level P1 Garage`
Phase: `Garage`
`XX - Level P1 Garage`
`XX - Level P1 Building`
Area: "XX - Level P1 Garage"
Phase: "Garage"
### Stairwells
Area: `S - Stairwells Garage`
Phase: `Garage`
Area: "S - Stairwells Garage"
Phase: "Garage"
## Building
### General
Area: `XX - Level XX Building`
Phase: `Building - BOH, Storage & Common`
Area: "XX - Level XX Building"
Phase: "Building - BOH, Storage & Common"
### Corridors
Area: `XX - Level XX Building`
Phase: `Building - Corridors`
Area: "XX - Level XX Building"
Phase: "Building - Corridors"
### Stairwells
Area: `S - Stairwells Building`
Phase: `Building - BOH, Storage & Common`
Area: "S - Stairwells Building"
Phase: "Building - BOH, Storage & Common"
### Rentable
#### Residential
Area: `XX - Level XX Building`
Phase: `Unit Residential`
Area: "XX - Level XX Building"
Phase: "Unit Residential"
#### Hotel
Area: `XX - Level XX Building`
Phase: `Unit Key`
Area: "XX - Level XX Building"
Phase: "Unit Key"
### Interior Amenity
#### General
Area: `XX - Level XX Amenity Building`
Phase: `Interior Amenity`
Area: "XX - Level XX Amenity Building"
Phase: "Interior Amenity"
#### Kitchen
Area: `XX - Level XX Kitchen Building`
Phase: `Kitchen`
Area: "XX - Level XX Kitchen Building"
Phase: "Kitchen"
#### Retail
Area: `XX - Level XX Retail Building`
Phase: `Retail`
Area: "XX - Level XX Retail Building"
Phase: "Retail"
#### Ballroom
Area: `XX - Level XX Ballroom Building`
Phase: `Ballrooms`
Area: "XX - Level XX Ballroom Building"
Phase: "Ballrooms"
### Exterior Amenity
Area: `XX - Level XX Exterior Amenity Building`
Phase: `Exterior Amenity (Courtyards, Pool Decks)`
Area: "XX - Level XX Exterior Amenity Building"
Phase: "Exterior Amenity (Courtyards, Pool Decks)"
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---
id: designations
aliases: []
tags: []
---
# Designations
## Building Designations
+59 -31
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---
id: electrical
aliases: []
tags: []
---
# Final SOE
## 1. Trash Chute
- Check elevations for floor height
- Uncheck Link 'Enable Livecount'
- CA.33(Misc. Ass.). 2
- 100' Horizontal (If not shown)
- Vertical Put in Typical
Horizontal:
- Check if shown on power drawings as mech connection
- If not, use 100ft length
- Check Bottom of chute if taken off already in elec. THIS IS ONLY FOR THE HORIZONTAL
Vertical (Riser):
- Takeoff: `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MISC ASSEMBLIES`/`TRASH CHUTE RISER CIRCUIT...`
- Uncheck Link 'Enable Livecount'
- Takeoff in Typical
- Length = average floor to floor height
## 2. CU/IP
@@ -17,46 +24,67 @@
## 3. Slab Deck
- Create Area Typical for every Concrete slab floor
- ID.37.16.1
- ID. MISC PDI PRODUCT. MISC MATERIAL. SLAB/DECK
- 2 Typicals
Create Area Typicals for every Concrete slab floor:
- 'All Building'
- 1 every level (Not Roof)
- HD 1 Per Section
- 1 every level (Not Roof)
- HD: 1 Per Section
- 'All Garage'
- 1 every level
- 1 every level
- Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`MISC PDI PRODUCT`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK & FEEDER`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK (NAILS, PAINT, TAPE, ETC = $250)`
- 1 Takeoff each Typical, Count = 1
## 4. Temporary Power & Lighting
### 4.1 Temp Power
```
Area = ""
Area = "2 - Site"
Phase = "Temp Power"
System = "TPS - Temp Power Service (Site)"
BidItem = "1 - Site"
```
Hoxton Hotel (aka Nashville Hotel)
- Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`TEMPORARY POWER - * SERVICE`
### 4.2A Temp Lighting (Building)
```
Area = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Building"
Phase = "Temp Power"
System = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
BidItem = "3 - Building"
```
- ID.27.
- 3/4/5 (A-bid>>)
- 8/9
- Total GSF - Garage GSF = Building Size
- Garage SF = Temp lighting Garage
- Enter in count
- Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)`
- *Count* = Building Size = Total GSF - Garage GSF
Gardens: Take off 1 Tpole `ID.28.1` per 150' per building
Garden Styles:
- Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`TEMPORARY POWER - T POLE (EACH)`
- *Count* = 1 per 150' per building
TEMP LIGHTING ^^^^
### 4.2B Temp Lighting (Garage)
```
Area = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Building"
Phase = "Temp Power"
System = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)"
BidItem = "3 - Building"
```
- Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)`
- *Count* = Garage SF
## 5. Irrigation pumps
- SYSTEM: `MISC - Site Miscellaneous`
```
Area = "2 - Site"
Phase = "Temp Power"
System = `MISC - Site Miscellaneous`
BidItem = "1 - Site"
```
- (3) 3Phase 30A 200' Mech. Con.
- Append to name: "Irrigation Pump - "
## 6. Lightning Protection
- Check line Item on Proposal
- Go to the notes and take off
- Append to name: "Irrigation Pump - "
@@ -1,11 +1,6 @@
# PDI Takeoff Scratch
Notes taken in review with Joel.
%% TODO: Split to more appropriate notes and delete this one. %%
# Feeders
* Use 15ft adders for site runs
(primaries, secondaries, etc.),
as opposed to standard 10ft adder,
to account for variability.
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# Lighting Controls Takeoff
# Lighting Controls
## Information
> [!info] Lighting Control Technologies
> * Triac (Line voltage dim)
> * Analog (0-10V dim)
> * Digital
> * Wireless
All these control methods are likely to appear in drawings.
## Conventions
By PDI convention, lighting controls are generally "Electrical", not "Lighting".
All control methods are likely to appear in drawings.
* Triac (Line voltage dim)
* Analog (0-10V dim)
* Digital
* Wireless
> [!info] "Local Control" as a PDI proposal qualification
> The term "local control only" is sometimes used to indicate
> no consideration for *any* lighting control beyond standard devices,
> (with `$D`s being the triac type)
> (with `$D`'s being the triac type)
> however, this phrasing is ambiguous and non-universal.
> Confirm with the bid team on what must be included.
## Custom Switch Boxes
## Scope
### Designations
#### Custom Switch Boxes
For switch combinations not in `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`,
create heating designations based on the most similar.
### Naming
#### Format
```regex
<phase-abbr> - <assembly>(\: <subtype>)?( - <fixture-labor>)? \(<wiring-method>\)( <wm-descriptor>)* <branch-length>ft
```
> [!example]
> `A - Surface: Pendant - 2.0hrs (MC) LV 20ft`
create heating [[designations]] based on the most similar.
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# Lighting Takeoff (Fixtures)
# Lighting (Fixtures)
## Naming
## Info
### Format
## Scope
### Building Designations
#### Naming
##### Format
```regex
<phase-abbr> - <assembly>(\: <subtype>)?( - <fixture-labor>)? \(<wiring-method>\)( <wm-descriptor>)* <branch-length>ft
@@ -11,7 +17,7 @@
> [!example]
> `A - Surface: Pendant - 2.0hrs (MC) LV 20ft`
### Order
#### Order
Use empty designations to separate phases.
@@ -28,7 +34,7 @@ Use empty designations to separate phases.
> CU - Surface: Wall (MC) LV 25ft
> ```
## Fixture Labor
#### Fixture Labor
> | Fixture Type | Labor |
> | ------------ | -------------- |
@@ -41,7 +47,7 @@ Use empty designations to separate phases.
>
> [^1]: Determine exact labor from fixture and size.
## Fixture Branch Length
#### Fixture Branch Length
> | Case | Standard Length |
> | ------------- | --------------- |
@@ -58,7 +64,7 @@ Use empty designations to separate phases.
>
> [^2]: See fixture types below for special cases.
## Fixture Branch Wire size
#### Fixture Branch Wire size
> | Case | Wire Size |
> | -------------- | --------- |
@@ -71,9 +77,9 @@ Use empty designations to separate phases.
>
> [^2]: Kitchen and bathroom fixtures shall be #12 (NOT #14) on wood frame (NM) projects.
## Garage
#### Garage
### Fixtures
#### Fixtures
Use ENT Assembly unless spec requires otherwise.
@@ -87,7 +93,7 @@ If PVC, use following assemblies:
| Ceiling | `PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/`... - SLAB BOX / 45 DEG STUBBY` |
| Wall | `PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/`... - STL BOX & TILE RING / 45 DEG STUBBY/ ENT DROP` |
### Homeruns
#### Homeruns
> `System` = "EL - Electrical"
@@ -95,13 +101,14 @@ Use 1 Homerun for every 3 circuits in Garage
Use assembly `Common Assemblies`/`Device Homeruns in Slab/Deck`
## Surface Mount
#### Surface Mount
* Wall Mount (Sconce)
* Pendant
* Linear
* Tape
* Track
> [!info] Surface Mount Fixtures
> * Wall Mount (Sconce)
> * Pendant
> * Linear
> * Tape
> * Track
| Wiring Method | Assembly Path |
| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
@@ -114,7 +121,7 @@ Use assembly `Common Assemblies`/`Device Homeruns in Slab/Deck`
> [!note]
> Use lighting control cable assemblies in Amenity areas
### Tape Lighting
##### Tape Lighting
Also called "cove" or "strip",
however those terms are less specific
@@ -132,34 +139,24 @@ and change `Fct 1` to match the calculated labor.
Separate these fixtures by labor, not length
```
A - Tape 0.5hr (1-6ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 1.0hr (7-12ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 1.5hr (13-18ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 2.0hr (19-24ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 2.5hr (25-30ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 3.0hr (31-36ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 3.5hr (37-42ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 4.0hr (43-48ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 4.5hr (49-54ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 5.0hr (55-60ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 5.5hr (61-66ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 6.0hr (67-72ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 6.5hr (73-78ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 7.0hr (79-84ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 7.5hr (85-90ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 8.0hr (91-96ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 8.5hr (97-102ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 9.0hr (103-108ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 9.5hr (109-114ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Tape 10.0hr (115-120ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Surface: Tape - 0.5hr (01-06ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Surface: Tape - 1.0hr (07-12ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Surface: Tape - 1.5hr (13-18ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Surface: Tape - 2.0hr (19-24ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Surface: Tape - 2.5hr (25-30ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Surface: Tape - 3.0hr (31-36ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Surface: Tape - 3.5hr (37-42ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Surface: Tape - 4.0hr (43-48ft) - MC #12 40ft
A - Surface: Tape - 4.5hr (49-54ft) - MC #12 40ft
```
## Recessed
#### Recessed
* recessed downlight
* recessed linear
* wall grazer
* troffer
> [!info] Recessed Fixtures
> * recessed downlight
> * recessed linear
> * wall grazer
> * troffer
| Wiring Method | Assembly Path |
| ------------- | ------------------------------ |
@@ -173,7 +170,7 @@ round up to the nearest 5ft
> [!note]
> "HI HAT" refers to a recessed can fixture.
## Undercabinet Fixtures
#### Undercabinet Fixtures
| Wiring Method | Assembly Path |
| ------------- | ------------------------------------- |
@@ -183,9 +180,9 @@ round up to the nearest 5ft
> [!note]
> Takeoff 2 fixtures if jumping over oven
Use 10ft #12/2 for MC & NM
Use 10ft \#12/2 for MC & NM
## Paddle Fans
#### Paddle Fans
| Wiring Method | Assembly Path |
| ------------- | ----------------------------------------------------- |
@@ -193,11 +190,11 @@ Use 10ft #12/2 for MC & NM
| MC Cable | `MC ASSEMBLIES`/`FAN RATED OCT BOX W/ BAR HNGR - ...` |
| PVC | `PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/`... - SLAB BOX / 45 DEG STUBBY` |
## Stairwells & Elevators
#### Stairwells & Elevators
`PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/`... - SLAB BOX / 45 DEG STUBBY`
## Facade
#### Facade
> `Phase` = "Facade"
@@ -211,24 +208,25 @@ Length and Labor will be more than a normal fixture in BOH/Amenity
> 1. `3/4" PVC W/ 3#10 - STL BOX & TILE RING / 45 DEG STUBBY/ ENT DROP`
> * `Length per Unit` = Distance to panel
## Porte Cochere (Drive up Area)
#### Porte Cochere (Drive up Area)
Create its own breakout in WBS, and phase in Accubid
This is not technically exposed or drop ceiling, but still use PVC
> [!quote]
> This is not technically exposed or drop ceiling, but still use PVC
## FAA Lighting
#### FAA Lighting
> 1. `FIXTURE LABOR`/`FIXTURE LABOR 1HR`
> 2. `FESTOON & ROOF ASSEMBLIES`/`Aircraft Warning, 3/4" Conduit GRC/PVC 2#10, 1#10G`
# Site & Courtyard
### Site & Courtyard
## Breakdowns
#### Breakdowns
> `System` = "FML - Site Fixtures Material & Labor"
> System: "FML - Site Fixtures Material & Labor"
## Fixture Assemblies
#### Fixture Assemblies
> | Fixture Type | Assembly Path |
> | ------------------------------------ | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
@@ -243,12 +241,14 @@ This is not technically exposed or drop ceiling, but still use PVC
>
> [^2]: Per Corwin: Hand rail lights should have a rigid 90 stub up and some flex
### Festoon Lighting
##### Festoon Lighting
AKA "string" or "market" lights
> AKA "string" or "market" lights
> 1. `FIXTURE LABOR`/`FIXTURE LABOR 2HR`
> 2. `FESTOON & ROOF ASSEMBLIES`/`FESTOON CABLE HANGER & EYE BOLTS - LENGTH`
> * `Length per Unit` = Light string length
> 3. `COURTYARDS & LANDSCAPE`/`ALUM BOX W/ FLEX FIX, 3/4" CONDUIT - PVC40 - ...`
> * `Length per Unit` = Distance to panel + 15ft
### Takeoff
@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
# Lightning Protection
## Info
Two Types:
- Protection \$\$\$
- Prevention \$
- ESE (EARLY STREAMER EMISSIONS)
## Estimate Scope
May or may not be included, see proposal on [[bpm|BPM]]
### Subcontractors
Find lightning protection subcontractor quotes on BPM
> [!tip]
> While you have them open, put the quote costs in Accubid.
Search the quotes for direction on downlead counts, total length, and conduit size
> [!example]
> Contractor to furnish 1,980' of 1" PVC conduit and pull string
If no quote is available:
- **Downlead locations** = building corners + additional locations
such that downlead spacing is not greater than 100ft
- Minimum 10 locations for High Rise
- **Total downlead conduit length** = building height * downlead locations
- **Conduit size** = 1-1/4"
### Takeoff
```
Area = "Lightning Protection" // confirm
Phase = "Building - BOH, Storage & Common"
System = "LPT - Lightning Protection"
BidItem = "3 - Building"
```
- Takeoff: `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY CONDUIT`/`PVC ASSEMBLIES`/`* CONDUIT - PVC40`
- **Length** = total downlead conduit length
- **Count** = downlead locations
- Add item: `ITEM DATABASE`/`BOXES & CABINETS`/`JUNCTION BOXES AND INDUSTRIAL CABINETS`/
`BOXES - HNGD CVR - PAINTED STEEL - NEMA 1`/` 6x 4x 4" BOX HNGD CVR - NEMA 1`
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# Project Setup
## Create Project Folder
```pwsh
# Copy template folder to
Set-Location "\\EgnyteDrive\Shared\Estimating\7 ConEst Team\Projects\ConEst 2025\"
Copy-Item ".\z.Template Folder\" ".\$region\$projectName"
```
## Download Project Documents
```
Set-Location ".\$region\$projectName"
# Download docs from BPM to ".\3. Plans & Spec's"
# TODO: Automate
# copying from "\\EgnyteDrive\Shared\Estimating\$region\00 Open Bids\$projectName"
# may be more practical
```
## Create Unit Matrix
See Architecturals
## Create Area Breakout
`SF Calcs.xlsx`
## Create Blank WBS
```pwsh
Set-Location "\\EgnyteDrive\Shared\Estimating\19 WBS Agreement GP"
Copy-Item ".\1. Wizard Template - WBS\MEP Wizard v3.111.4 (7-21-2025)(Summary Adjustments).xlsm" \
".\2. Blank Project WBS\2025\$projectName WBS $date.xlsm"
```
## Create LiveCount Project
- In [Trimble Connect](https://web.connect.trimble.com),
find the project "CONEST TEMPLATE",
open its context menu,
then click "Use as template for a new project".
- Ensure all checkboxes are checked,
then click `Next`.
- Name with format "{Project Name} - ConEst".
Refresh the page and open the newly created project.
## Upload Drawings to LiveCount
```
# Extract drawings to ".\Trimble Connect (Plans)"
```
Upload extracted drawings to LiveCount
## Create Accubid Job
> [!important]
> The LiveCount project must be created **before**
> creating the Accubid job.
- Create a new Accubid job:
Path: "\\EgnyteDrive\Shared\Trimble\Accubid\Bid\{Project Name} - ConEst.es16"
## Add Drawings to Accubid Job
- In the LiveCount window, find `Document Manager` > `Select Existing Project`.
Add all previously uploaded drawings.
@@ -1,113 +0,0 @@
---
id: the-failure-of-risk-management
aliases: []
tags: []
---
# *The Failure of Risk Management*
The Failure of Risk Management
(Why It's Broken and How to Fix It)
by Douglas W. Hubbard
## Key Takeaways
### Qualitative Metrics Must Be Avoided
Qualitative risk analysis
(i.e. risk matrices, scoring charts)
departs from legitimate statistical methodology
and has no robust evidence to suggest its efficacy.
There is good reason to believe that such methods
are deleterious to their intended purpose
in contradiction to the common response
that they are "better than nothing".
### Utility as a Measure of Value
Expected Value (Probability × Magnitude)
alone can not predict or inform risky decisions,
except for risk-neutral parties.
People and organizations are risk-averse
...
* [ ] Finish this paragraph. (see chapter 6) 2025-07-04
### Expert Opinion Must Be ~~Adjusted~~
Expert opinion is valuable despite its flaws.
...
The book details the statistically observable tendency for people
to underestimate risk and to be overconfident in their beliefs.
It describes the process of "calibration"
by which people can be trained to compensate for this bias
and make predictions far more accurately.
Experts tend to be good at creating heuristics,
but do not apply them consistently in practice.
> [!example]
> Chapter 7 describes a study where experts
> were shown to estimate risk differently for identical cases.
### Luck Looks Like Skill
> Chapter 7 p.154
Hubbard describes a study which concluded that,
given the number of German pilots and their overall victory/defeat figures,
there was a ~30% chance an individual would achieve The Red Baron's record
_by luck alone_.
He later refers to the tendency to overvalue competence
in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments
as the "Red Baron effect".
### There's Always Enough Data
Hubbard challenges the popular rebuttal
that X industry lacks the data to use quantitative models.
> [!quote] Fallacy of Close Analogy - p.236
> ...the belief that unless two things are identical in every way,
> nothing learned from one can be applied to the other.
## Mentioned Topics and Abbreviations
* Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
* Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT)
* Actuarial Science
* Options Theory (OT)
* Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)
* Probabalistic Risk Analysis (PRA)
* Value at Risk (VaR)
* Loss-Exceedance Curve (LEC)
* Risk Tolerance
## Critiques
### _Exsupero Ursus_
> Chapter 9 p.195
Hubbard uses _exsupero ursus_ to describe the tendency of his detractors
to dismiss quantitative methods as inappropriate to their industry-specific risks.
He provides another analogy in which one car is picked of two (ordinary) cars
because the other car can't fly.
Based on this strawman it is clear Hubbard believes his detractors are _correct_
that qualitative methods can not capture the entire nuance of risk probability,
but that they are failing to acknowledge that their preferred alternatives
are not demonstrably more effective at doing so.
The nuance Hubbard dismisses without addressing is the possibility of model _improvement_.
A most competant detractor would be aware of the apparent contradiction
but argue that their methods will eventually surpass quantitative methods
if they are further developed.
Such a position would additionally contextualize Hubbard's observations
that detractors become emotional in their defense.
To them, Hubbards methods represent an attractive short-term gain
excluding a long-term payoff.
Hubbard's dismissal rubs me wrong
because it reads exactly as he describes the "at least we're doing _something_" argument
throughout the book and just pages earlier.