vault backup: 2025-07-22 16:59:59

risk-oriented-estimating.md

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ Risk-Oriented Estimating (ROE), is a methodology for [[construction-estimating]]
 * prioritizes estimating tasks,
 * determines necessary [[estimating-detail]]
 
-ROE leans heavily on [[expected-value-of-perfect-information]],
+ROE leans heavily on [[perfect-information]],
 which challenges the natural tendency to shy from uncertainty
 with the reality of the cost of certainty.
 
@@ -18,9 +18,17 @@ ROE does not endorse common shortcuts that round up to "cover" uncertainty,
 as these ultimately _increase_ risk by inflating the apparent project cost,
 increasing the probability of loss to a competitor.
 
-> Bid risk may fit a [Taleb distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taleb_distribution).
+%%
+## Scratch
 
-> Actuarial Science
+Bid risk may fit a [Taleb distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taleb_distribution).
+
+Actuarial Science
+
+Estimating as risk mitigation,
+resources allocated by Return on Mitigation (RoM)
+
+%%
 
 ## Prioritizing Tasks
 
@@ -31,3 +39,26 @@ ROE prioritizes estimating tasks by their contribution to _cost certainty_.
 ROE determines the appropriate level of [[estimating-detail]]
 given an organization's [[risk#Risk Tolerance]].
 
+## EVPI Takeoff
+
+%%
+## Scratch
+
+Expected value of perfect information (EVPI)
+
+Count-based takeoff speed increases with count.
+%%
+
+Optimizing the takeoff process means:
+
+* *Minimizing* the need for information outside of drawings
+* *Maximizing* organizational consistency
+
+> [!note]
+> Recent events have complicated my philosophy above.
+> It appears that similar efforts have already been made here,
+> their success being a matter of perspective.
+
+> [!note] Naming Conventions (Use Case vs. Description)
+> Naming by use case is intuitive for those without estimating or field experience,
+> but has the side effect that those accustomed to the names will inevitably *treat them as descriptive*.